Election 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2021-11-02 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	3
Rep	0
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		1 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	3
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
2	1	1

Analysis

If anything, VA is the only state to watch here this year. I don’t see Rs unseating Murphy in NJ, and there was never any hope of CA Dems allowing Newsom to be recalled. However, VA is the real interesting one. For one thing, the VA Dems seem to be a little worried. VA Republicans seem fired up, but then again they usually are-and yet they haven’t won since 2013. Do I think Terry will win as well as Biden? In a “best case”, yeah. For the most likely option, I think it’ll be anywhere from +1 to +7 Terry over Glen. But then again, we never know what could happen here.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	24/35	58/70	82.9%	1	1	97	T	305
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	6	48	T	118
2020 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	7	187	502	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	2	32	137	T	423
2020 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	1	369	275	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	17	35	T	192
Aggregate Predictions	129/142	88/142	217/284	76.4%