Moving Maine to a tossup, which feels more in line with my current prediction of the race.

Moving Maine to a tossup, which feels more in line with my current prediction of the race.

Some early thoughts on competitive races/possible flips:<br /><br /> ME: Mills only has modest approval ratings in a state that's trending right. LePage is controversial but has won statewide twice and will give Mills a run for her money. MA: The MAGOP's luck in winning gubernatorial races seems to be running out with Baker stepping aside from running for a third term. Geoff Diehl will likely be the Republican nominee and he's too conservative for possible crossover voters. Whoever the Democrat is will win pretty comfortably, especially if it's a more moderate candidate like Marty Walsh or Joe Kennedy III. CT: Ned Lamont has pretty decent approval ratings (both overall and on the pandemic) in a strong turnaround from his rocky start, but Republicans have done pretty well in recent local elections which could whittle down Lamont's margin somewhat. PA: The Republican-favored national environment will boost the GOP nominee, but Josh Shapiro is one of the stronger Democrats electorally speaking. MD: Hogan is term-limited, and whoever the Democrats nominate will win easily. MI: Whitmer's tough stances on pandemic restrictions will come back to bite her and she only has modest approval numbers. James Craig's deep connections to Detroit will help him overperform a generic Republican in a state that's trended to the right over the past decade. WI: Evers is in deep trouble next year, having barely won in 2018 in a state that's been trending right in recent cycles. MN: Walz is rather popular and is in a light blue state, but the pro-Republican environment and a competent Republican candidate means it will likely be closer than in 2018. KS: Laura Kelly is pretty popular right now, but will face strong headwinds in a safe Republican (albeit trending left) state. GA: The one I'm currently most unsure about. The results in Virginia are a good sign for the GAGOP, but it is a rapidly changing state where the Republicans' fortunes have slowly slipped over the past few cycles. The winner in Georgia will largely be a question of whether the pro-Republican political environment can outrun demographic trends. FL: DeSantis will win pretty handily (mid/upper single digits). Democrats seem to be deprioritizing Florida from their list of target states. CO: Polis is popular and is in a leftward-trending state, but the pro-Republican political environment will keep his margin of victory modest. NM: Lujan Grisham's approval numbers are only modest, and a good candidate will keep it close. AZ: The Democrats have made significant gains here in recent cycles, but this seat will likely remain in Republican hands. NV: 2022 could see the GOP's cold streak in Nevada come to an end, with Biden underwater in the state and the pro-Republican environment aiding the GOP nominee. OR: Kate Brown is one of the most unpopular governors in America and this will drag down the Democratic nominee, but Oregon Democrats have a pretty firm floor and it is unlikely the Republicans will be able to muster up a winning coalition here.