Election 2022 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-10-28 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	6
Rep	30
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	6
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+2	+2	-10	-2	-12	3	1	4	-10
Rep	+10	+2	+12	0	-2	-2	15	3	18	+10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
30	24	6

Analysis

Republicans pick up Kansas (Eric Schmidt), Nevada (Joe Lombardo), Wisconsin (Tim Michels), Maine (Paul LePage), New Mexico (Marc Ronchetti), Rhode Island (Ashley Kalus), New York (Lee Zeldin), Minnesota (Scott Jensen), Connecticut (Bob Stefanowski), Michigan (Tudor Dixon), Pennsylvania (Doug Mastriano), and Oregon (Christine Drazan). The Democrats pick up Massachusetts (Maura Healey), and Maryland (Wes Moore).<br /> <br />

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	28/35	8/35	36/70	51.4%	10	11	300		305
2022 Governor	24/36	6/36	30/72	41.7%	4	11	269		272
2021 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	5	13	111	T	118
2020 President	48/56	21/56	69/112	61.6%	37	6	675		684
2020 Senate	28/35	8/35	36/70	51.4%	36	4	421		423
2020 Governor	11/11	1/11	12/22	54.5%	2	17	284	T	293
2018 Senate	31/35	13/35	44/70	62.9%	10	9	402	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	6	11	273	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	114	40	T	149
2016 President	48/56	23/56	71/112	63.4%	26	2	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	12/34	42/68	61.8%	23	2	327	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	3/12	11/24	45.8%	9	1	223	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	1	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	20/36	54/72	75.0%	38	5	138	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	14/36	45/72	62.5%	30	1	145	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	356/425	149/425	505/850	59.4%

Links

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