Lots of competitive gubernatorial races this cycle! Let's get to it:<br /> <br /> Maine: Gov. Janet Mills v. former Gov. Paul LePage. LePage has a reputation for controversy, but he's mostly minded his P's and Q's for this campaign. Mills would be in trouble if Paul LePage could win with a plurality of the vote like he did in his 2 previous races for governor. Not possible this time, so advantage Mills.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro is cruising to a victory over far right conspiracy theorist Doug Mastriano, a Trump pick who is simply too far right for the state and who has associated with anti-Semites. Republicans are going to find out that what plays on Gab doesn't play with the median swing voter, but good riddance. One race where I can truly say that. Mastriano has been running an exceedingly odd campaign too that assumes that there's a wide swathe of rightwing voters in the state. Newsflash: there isn't.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire and Vermont: Popular Republican governors Phil Scott and Chris Sununu are in control to win.<br /> <br /> Massachusetts: Democrats are guaranteed to pickup the open seat here in the Bay State.<br /> <br /> Maryland: Ditto Maryland, where Wes Moore will be someone to watch in Democratic politics.<br /> <br /> Connecticut: Truly surprising. Ned Lamont faces a rematch with Bob Stefanowski, but this time Lamont is cruising to victory. Quite the turn around as Lamont only eked out victory against Stefanowski 4 years ago, and was look at with skepticism by the CT Dem establishment. <br /> <br /> Rhode Island: McKee survived a difficult primary, but now looks poised for an easy election win in his own right.<br /> <br /> Ohio: Mike DeWine could win by as much as 20 points. <br /> <br /> Georgia: Rematch between Stacy Abrams and Gov. Brian Kemp. Abrams has been touted as a Dem rising star, but she's on track to lose by a larger margin than in 2018. Kemp of course has drawn ire and fire from all sides, most notably Trump, who tried to defeat him in the GOP primary. But Kemp smooshed Trump's handpicked replacement by around 50 points. Now Kemp is cruising to re-election. What Kemp has achieved is nothing short of riding a unicycle across a tightrope juggling chainsaws...and he's pulling it off. This win, along with the likelihood of Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger is a huge win for election integrity and security.<br /> <br /> Florida: The only question is whether DeSantis wins by under or over 10 points. Crist never really had a shot here. DeSantis presidential buzz will ratchet up if DeSantis wins big.<br /> <br /> New York: One of the shockers is the late breaking race in New York between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin. Crime is a huge issue in the race. This race is probably in single digits, but Democrats are mobilizing, and it's hard to see where Zeldin get the margins he needs to overcome what Hochul will be getting out of NYC. A Zeldin win is unlikely, but that this is even somewhat close is a surprise.<br /> <br /> Michigan: Whitmer is heading for a win over Tudor Dixon, whose stance on abortion is out of step with the state. Still there's evidence Dixon is closing the gap late. Prop 3, a ballot initiative to codify abortion rights in the state, may be energizing lower propensity Democrat voters.<br /> <br /> Minnesota have been too quiet, and Tim Walz is one of those Dem incumbents who could get surprised but that's unlikely, since the GOP nominated another candidate too far to the right for the state's electorate. <br /> <br /> Wisconsin is very very close between Gov. Tony Evers and Tim Michel. Michels has espoused a lot of far right views and conspiracy theories, but tracks as a more normie Republican. That's important for Michels as he needs to perform well in the WOW counties around Milwaukee to win. Still Evers is not especially popular and is highly endangered. This could go either way. Michels winning would be very dangerous for election integrity in a critical battleground state. <br /> <br /> Iowa: Kim Reynolds is cruising.<br /> <br /> Texas: Game over as Greg Abbott wins another term. I guess Beto O'Rourk's promise to take away people's gun wasn't the winning political message in Texas. O'Rourke loses again, and Democrats will generally fall flat in Texas. Eventually, to claim Texas is a purple state, Democrats do need to win a statewide race, yes?<br /> <br /> Oklahoma: Another late breaking race. Gov. Kevin Stitt is locked in a surprisingly competitive race against Joy Hoffmeister that hinges on local issues. Hoffmeister got a good endorsement from Republican JC Watts, whos is still popular in the state. Hard to no what's goin on on the ground in the Sooner State, but my best guess is that Stitt ends up winning in the single digits.<br /> <br /> Nebraska and South Dakota are another two states where it's hard to know what exactly is going on on the ground, but the safest bet is for the GOP to prevail in both.<br /> <br /> Colorado: Jared Polis is one of the most popular Democratic governors in the nation and is cruising to an easy reelection.<br /> <br /> New Mexico: Another race that could be a sleeper race. Governor Lujan Grisham has had problems in her first term and Republican nominee Ronchetti did surprisingly well in his 2020 Senatorial race. Still Ronchetti actually pulling out the win would be a massive upset.<br /> <br /> Arizona: The main event of the cycle. Kari Lake v. Katie Hobbs. Perhaps no other state epitomizes 2020 election conspiracies, and Republican efforts to overturn the last presidential election than AZ. And in a state that morphing into a key battleground the state GOP has trended towards the cranks and extremists in the party. Lake epitomizes that. Unlike other Republicans, Lake has not backed down from her false claims about the election. Meanwhile Katie Hobbs is the Secretary of State, overseeing this election and the last election, where she subjected to abuse and death threats. This race is very close, however the soft spoken Hobbs declined to debate Lake, a former TV anchor who is telegenic and very adroit in her verbal sparing. This one is close, but Hobbs is an underdog. Much like Wisconsin, this another battleground state where an election denier very well could become governor. <br /> <br /> Nevada: Another nail biter where governor Steve Sisolak squared off against Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Lombardo is a good recruit for the GOP, who may be able to override the Democratic "Clark County firewall". Sisolak has been in deep trouble all cycle. He's got mediocre approval ratings and Nevada's economy was battered by Covid. Nevada election guru Jon Ralston thinks Lombardo has the edge to win and I concur. <br /> <br /> Oregon: This has been a 3 way race between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson, who until recently was polling in double digits. All cycle this was looking like a surprisingly good chance for a Republican pickup. Republican haven't won the governorship here in 40 years. Looks like this year won't be it. Kotek has battle back into a smallish lead as Johnson fades down the stretch.<br /> <br /> Kansas: I continue to be very bullish about Gov. Laura Kelly's shot at reelection. Kansas is very red. But the Republican here, Derek Schmidt has had trouble graining traction. The abortion referendum in August has likely helped energize the Democrat base vote, such as it is. This one is quite close, but I think Kelly can pull it out. <br /> <br /> Again what's alarming here is that election denied stand good odds of winning in Wisconsin and Arizona. It's also noteworthy that Democrats flopped in Florida, Texas and Georgia, and also that Republicans basically threw away good shots at winning Michigan and Pennsylvania with terrible candidates.