Date of Prediction: 2023-11-06 Version:5
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 6)
Analysis
In Kentucky, I believe that Gov. Andy Beshear is in a good position against Daniel Cameron. Some early polls suggested Gov. Beshear leading by 8%, but polling has narrowed recently. I don't really believe that he was ever leading by that much, really. Still, I do think that a margin of 3% or 4% tomorrow, which is what I expect, would be quite good in a red state like Kentucky. Cameron still has a chance to win, of course, but I consider Kentucky to be Lean Democratic. In Mississippi, Brandon Presley is giving Gov. Tate Reeves a run for his money, but I don't think it will be enough. The recent debate may have changed some people's minds, but Mississippi is still a ruby-red state, and it is still very much an uphill battle. Presley has been actually competing against Gov. Reeves (unlike the Louisiana Democrats), but I still expect Gov. Reeves to win outright. If the race goes to a runoff, though, anything can happen. Regardless, I consider Mississippi to be Likely Republican.
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