PredictionsEndorse2023 Gubernatorial Predictions - WinstonOBoogie (D-ON) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2023-11-06 Version:5

Prediction Map
WinstonOBoogie MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
WinstonOBoogie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non47
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem0
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non47
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000-1-1101-1
Rep0+1+1000101+1
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
633
piepiepie

Analysis

In Kentucky, I believe that Gov. Andy Beshear is in a good position against Daniel Cameron. Some early polls suggested Gov. Beshear leading by 8%, but polling has narrowed recently. I don't really believe that he was ever leading by that much, really. Still, I do think that a margin of 3% or 4% tomorrow, which is what I expect, would be quite good in a red state like Kentucky. Cameron still has a chance to win, of course, but I consider Kentucky to be Lean Democratic. In Mississippi, Brandon Presley is giving Gov. Tate Reeves a run for his money, but I don't think it will be enough. The recent debate may have changed some people's minds, but Mississippi is still a ruby-red state, and it is still very much an uphill battle. Presley has been actually competing against Gov. Reeves (unlike the Louisiana Democrats), but I still expect Gov. Reeves to win outright. If the race goes to a runoff, though, anything can happen. Regardless, I consider Mississippi to be Likely Republican.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 247
P 2023 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 5 2 1T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 29/35 64/70 91.4% pie 23 1 7T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 39 1 11T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 11 48T118
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 14 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 14 4 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 4 35T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 26/35 58/70 82.9% pie 9 1 15T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 12 3 6T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 13 1 87T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 21/34 53/68 77.9% pie 11 1 16T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 6 1 119T279
Aggregate Predictions 327/354 245/354 572/708 80.8% pie


Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi

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