This sight gives Obama a solid 309 EV, so it was time for a few more changes.

Give Missouri to Obama.

The next battlegrounds are Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

McCain is tanking, and he knows it. Now he wants to 'postpone' the debate in a desperate attempt to stop the straight talk express from crashing and burning, like he's done to so many of our nations' aircraft. Everyone knows that he has no clue about the economy, no clue about Iraq, and no clue about America. He won't even let his pet Sarah come out and play. Seriously, I think he's throwing in the towel on purpose, because the next president is going to go through a lot of crap trying to recover this country from Hurricane Dubya.

It's going to be an Obama landslide.

The map according to Intrade, following both conventions. As we progress from the conventions, Palin can only drop in the polls now, based on how she is currently the 'Reagan-fable-of-the-month' (see Thompson, Giulliani, Romney, etc). And McCain will drop in the polls, as soon as they prop him up next to somebody who actually knows what they're talking about in the first debate. He will try to repeatedly say 'maverick' and 'P.O.W.', but after the first five minutes he'll have nothing left to say. Then Obama will shoot down his lies about tax plans, and his lies about the Iraq war. It's going to be a slaughter. I almost pity McSame/Failin'. But the country is too important to give it up to these losers, to tack 4 more scheisse years onto the last 8.

Coming off of the bitter democratic primary, McCains numbers are now at the highest they will ever be. So if he doesn't have a state by at least +5%, he won't win that state in November. We'll see even more tanking by McCain, as soon as they prop him up next to Obama, and he tries to pander to the half of the Republicans that still like dubya, and the half that hate dubya. All of the traditional swing states are decided. The new swing states are Montana, North Dakota, Louisiana, Indiana, Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, and maybe even Texas. It's going to be fun to watch.

Obama vs. McCain according to SurveyUSA, who has a good prediction track record. And some blanks filled in with my own analysis. Obama still has a great shot at the Dakotas, Tennesee, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida. But I'll leave them blue for now. McCain could surprisingly take a few north-eastern states that have no consequence.

This map is primary turnout so far.

I think the GE will yield a map that is much different than we've had in the last 2 decades.

Some state notes:

Michigan and Florida primaries were messed up, so Michigan is still dem, and who knows where Florida will be.

Colorado and North Dakota turnout was almost 65% dem.

Missouri and Arkansas were about 58% dem.

North Carolina- 54% dem.
Georgia- 52% dem.
Oklahoma- 54% dem.

Virginia- Obama got more votes than all of the Republicans combined

But some questions still remain:
a) What will the Ron Paul-bots do in the GE? My guess is most will stay home, or go for Obama.
b) Fervor over Clinton (first woman) or Obama (first African American)? In most surveys, these primary voters will go to the other dem. 70-80% of the time.
c) McCain hatred? His victories have been small, and there's huge divisions that were dead set on Romney, Huckabee, and/or Ron Paul.
d) Can McCain chip away at some of the north-east, and can he old on to the southern base?

This map is primary turnout so far.

I think the GE will yield a map that is much different than we've had in the last 2 decades.

Some state notes:

Michigan and Florida primaries were messed up, so Michigan is still dem, and who knows where Florida will be.

Colorado and North Dakota turnout was almost 65% dem.

Missouri and Arkansas were about 58% dem.

North Carolina- 54% dem.
Georgia- 52% dem.
Oklahoma- 54% dem.

Virginia- Obama got more votes than all of the Republicans combined

But some questions still remain:
a) What will the Ron Paul-bots do in the GE? My guess is most will stay home, or go for Obama.
b) Fervor over Clinton (first woman) or Obama (first African American)? In most surveys, these primary voters will go to the other dem. 70-80% of the time.
c) McCain hatred? His victories have been small, and there's huge divisions that were dead set on Romney, Huckabee, and/or Ron Paul.
d) Can McCain chip away at some of the north-east, and can he old on to the southern base?

How I differ from the other predictions? I think that there are some previous Republican states that are on shaky ground now, like Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri and from the latest poll, even Indiana. I think that Ohio has finally learned it's lesson also. Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado might also go to the Dems. I don't see the Republicans picking up any new states.

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