McCain has abandoned Colorado and New Mexico. He's abandoned Iowa and Wisconsin. It's pretty clear that Obama will win Virginia, and will probably take Florida. McCain's big strategy is to keep all of the Bush states (except those that he's abandoned) and win Pennsylvania. Where he's behind by 10-15 percent.

So, in so many words, he's conceded the election.

New polls show that Indiana and Montana have Obama leading, and I think it'll stay that way on election day (by slim margins though). I also think that Obama will peel off Omaha. What I'm really curious about is Arizona. Why haven't there been any Arizona polls released in almost a month?

So in other words: anyone still pushing a close election or a McCain win has had their head under a rock since, well, like May or something. Obama wins big.

Obama in a landslide. Anyone still creating close maps or McCain wins maps is simply deluding themselves. Obama is, and has been for weeks, WAY ahead in national popular vote and is leading in every damn blue (on this map red) state listed above. Indiana, West Virginia, and/or Montana may still move to Obama, but I see about 0.4% chance of any of the Obama states listed above (except Omaha or North Carolina) will go to McCain.

After McCain's stunt, and the House Republicans' theatrics, I think it's possible that Obama could take the election in a landslide. The current prediction shows him eeking out narrow wins in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and Nebraska 2. We'll see how things stand after the debates, but I doubt they'll prop McCain up.

Without Bayh on the ticket, I don't think Obama will take Indiana (although maybe...). Biden's background will probably help keep PA in the blue, help pull in VA, and may even pull in WV (although I doubt that).

So it's either Bayh or Kaine. Obama's team is aiming to pickup both VA and IN, and I suspect they're spending the Olympics playing around with this problem:

If I pick Kaine, can I still win Indiana?

If I pick Bayh, can I still win Virginia?

Whichever one is indispensable will probably be the VP nominee. I suspect it'll be Obama-Bayh because they see Virginia winnable without Kaine, and Indiana unwinnable without Bayh.

As for the rest.... McCain's campaign continues its tactic of rapid-fire crap-flinging which only makes McCain look more and more like Abe Simpson yammering on about wippersnappers... Obama wins about 55% of the popular vote, and may end up pulling in some more states in the South and Mountain West.

So it's either Bayh or Kaine. Obama's team is aiming to pickup both VA and IN, and I suspect they're spending the Olympics playing around with this problem:

If I pick Kaine, can I still win Indiana?

If I pick Bayh, can I still win Virginia?

Whichever one is indispensable will probably be the VP nominee. I suspect it'll be Obama-Bayh because they see Virginia winnable without Kaine, and Indiana unwinnable without Bayh.

As for the rest.... McCain's campaign continues its tactic of rapid-fire crap-flinging which only makes McCain look more and more like Abe Simpson yammering on about wippersnappers... Obama wins about 55% of the popular vote, and may end up pulling in some more states in the South and Mountain West.

Based on several polls available:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_by_state_for_the_United_States_presidential_election%2C_2008

assuming it's Hillary vs Mittens or Huckleberry. I don't find my map particularly trustworthy or accurate so far, but time will tell....

Slight alteration in numbers and confidence, flipped Kentucky to GOP until I see another poll showing Hillary winning.

Based on some trends from 2006 as well as some new polls. I am not sure if I trust the data out of KY and AL which show those two as potential battleground states that Hillary can actually win, but I'm prepared to be surprised next year.

Based on 2006 trends and a few new polls out of SUSA (Va and Ky specifically). Obviously this is very preliminary.

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