PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Fabian Fastman (D-CA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2007-08-22 Version:11

Prediction Map
Fabian Fastman MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Fabian Fastman MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem259
 
Rep279
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem242
 
Rep258
 
Ind0
 
Tos38
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+7000202252+7
Rep000-10-7303279-7
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
78432942
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Hey, it's a mock-Rawlings prediction.

The map speaks for itself.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 10

It's time for yet another mock map.

Imitation of Nik: "Ohio has a strong Republican tradition and will stay GOP, and Hawaii is a tossup. I can't understand that Hawaii has a strong pro-incumbent bias and that Lingle is the exception, not the rule, in Hawaii. I think the GOP is retarded for not making a play at a solid blue state. Also, I think because Republicans retained seats in heavily gerrymandered districts, Ohio is solid GOP. Also, there's no such thing as independents! There's just Democrats and Republicans in this country. I'm a total fucking hack! Laugh at me!"


Version: 9

Something done out of boredom, assuming a 3-point swing to the Democrats.


Version: 8

Mock Tancredo08 map!

"Mark Warner vs. Ron Paul"

I'm willing to bet the first thing I get on this map is "LOL at Utah going 70% Dem"


Version: 7

Before you guys start burning my ass, this is an imitation of one of Jasengle's maps. IT'S FOR KICKS. Just laugh at this shit.

"mccain wants to send 80,000 troops into iraq. bush listens and the public is upset and obama defeats old man mccain 428-110."

Next on the list: mock tancredo08 map
After that: back to my old map


Version: 5

Yet even more edits. I'm trying to make this as reasonable as possible.


Version: 4

A few changes. Other than that, nothing to say.


Version: 3

Edited Iowa because I figured if Ohio and Nevada go Democratic, then so does Iowa. My predictions for each state:
Alabama: 64-35 R
Alaska: 60-38 R
Arizona: 52-47 R
Arkansas: 53-45 R
California: 55-44 D
Colorado: 49.8-49.2 D
Connecticut: 56-44 D
Delaware: 54-44 D
Florida: 49-48 R
Georgia: 59-39 R
Hawaii: 56-43 D
Idaho: 63-37 R
Illinois: 56-44 D
Indiana: 58-41 R
Iowa: 49.2-48.3 D
Kansas: 62-38 R
Kentucky: 59-39 R
Louisiana: 59-39 R
Maine: 54-44 D
Maryland: 58-40 D
Massachusetts: 60-40 D
Michigan: 53-45 D
Minnesota: 52-46 D
Mississippi: 58-40 R
Missouri: 51-48 R
Montana: 56-44 R
Nebraska: 66-43 R
Nevada: 48.9-48.2 D
New Hampshire: 53-45 D
New Jersey: 56-43 D
New Mexico: 49.7-48.2 D
New York: 60-39 D
North Carolina: 55.6-44.2 R
North Dakota: 62-37 R
Ohio: 49.3-49.2 D
Oklahoma: 65-35 R
Oregon: 53-44 D
Pennsylvania: 52-47 D
Rhode Island: 61-39 D
South Carolina: 60-39 R
South Dakota: 62-38 R
Tennessee: 57-42 R
Texas: 59.9-37 R
Utah: 69-39 R
Vermont: 60-38 D
Virginia: 52-48 R
Washington: 54-45 D
West Virginia: 56-43 R
Wisconsin: 50-49 D
Wyoming: 65-35 R


Version: 1

Basically generic Republican vs. generic Democrat. I predict we'll steal back votes in suburban New York and Hawaii and advance further in suburban Philidelphia, NorVA, and so forth.

Alabama: Easily one of the most conservative states around. It still has yet to become Utah II.
Alaska: No questions asked. Flaming-hot red.
Arizona: The Republican will win by a fairly comfortable margin, but I don't think it'll be 10 points again.
Arkansas: Larger swing to the Republicans.
California: Easy victory in this increasingly Democratic state.
Colorado: Trending Democratic rapidly, but will it be enough to swing to the Democrats? Maybe in 2012, but I don't know about 2008.
Connecticut: Solid blue, no questions asked.
Delaware: Increasingly Democratic. The Democrats got this in da bag.
Florida: It's the biggest swing state in the Electoral College, but I don't think we're getting this in 2008.
Georgia: Atlanta's surrounded by some of the most conservative suburban areas in the nation. Democrats stand no chance here.
Hawaii: No other state has voted Republican less times. I expect an easy victory here, or at least a comfortable margin.
Idaho: One of the reddest states around.
Illinois: Increasingly Democratic, and that's the way it's gonna be as long as Chicagoland flies to the left.
Indiana: The lone reliably Republican state in the Midwest (if you don't count the plains as part of it).
Iowa: True tossup state. It can go either way.
Kansas: Kansans, like Nebraskans and Dakotans, are trained to get their asses behind a Republican, no matter what.
Kentucky: It's clearly going to be Republican.
Louisiana: This state, IMO, has experienced one of the most massive swings to the Republicans in recent years; 52% Democratic in 96, 52% Republican in 00 (something like that, right?), and 56-57% Republican in 04.
Maine: As the Northeast continues it's leftward trend, Maine will no longer be the reliably Republican state it was before 1992.
Maryland: Again, true blue Democratic.
Massachusetts: This is a no-brainer. It's obviously going to go Democratic again in 2004.
Michigan: Democrats can hold in Michigan.
Minnesota: It's rebounded to the Democrats after 2004/2006.
Mississippi: Huge-ass black population, but apparently it's not enough to get over the ultraconservative white population there.
Missouri: I have little hope that Democrats can win Missouri. In my opinion it's a bellwether state no longer.
Montana: It's going to be red again, no questions asked.
Nebraska: Read my comments on Kansas.
Nevada: Another tossup. The question: Will the Democrats pull off a large enough margin in Clark County to win?
New Hampshire: We're all saying this is the WV of 2008. My thoughts exactly.
New Jersey: Likely Democratic. For everyone saying it's gonna go Republican, it already was a Republican-leaning state before 1992. That 9/11 boost wore off.
New Mexico: Again a tossup. With Latinos abandoning the GOP in large numbers due to the illegal immigration debate, Democrats have a good chance.
New York: It stays Democratic next year, regardless of whether Giuliani is the nominee or not. New York's one of the most reliably Democratic states, and 9/11 has worn off.
North Carolina: It'll be Republican, but not by as big of a margin.
North Dakota: Read my comments on Kansas.
Ohio: Tossup. Democrats have a real shot here now.
Oklahoma: Far-right state. Democrats have no chance here.
Oregon: I expect wider margins for the Democrats.
Pennsylvania: Same with Oregon.
Rhode Island: Another solid blue state.
South Carolina: Strongly conservative and Republican.
South Dakota: Read my comments on Kansas.
Tennessee: Solid red. Democrats can't take this state.
Texas: With Bush out, it can be closer, but not by much.
Utah: It's the Republican's Massachusetts.
Vermont: Went strongly Democratic in 2004, and likely by another large margin in 2008.
Washington: It's definitely trending Democratic. Democrats can rely on Washington.
West Virginia: Democrats will never again hold it.
Wisconsin: It's debatable, but it's gonna be Democratic once more.
Wyoming: No brainer, it'll be Republican.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-08-22 @ 14:05:08
Did you forget iowa again? lolprediction Map

 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-08-22 @ 14:10:01
Perhaps I did. But nothing's as important as making the entire intermountain west strong Republican and Colorado 90% GOP for this one.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-08-22 @ 14:57:28
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-08-22 @ 16:57:55
Anyone seen Rawlings lately anyway???prediction Map

 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-08-22 @ 19:23:11
On the forums, yes. But on the predictions, no. Guess he finally gets it that nobody buys his idiocy.prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-08-25 @ 13:48:46
Fabian Fastman:

Someone fowarded me This Thread , and I would like to thank you for your contribution. You are reasonable. Reading that thread reminds me why I am not a Democrat no more, since they don't seem to want to welcome blue dogs :(..
prediction Map

 By: Fabian Fastman (D-CA) 2007-08-27 @ 19:16:10
Haha. Thanks. But it's a fact though, that we need our centrists and blue dogs to keep the government.prediction Map

 By: texaslefty (I-UT) 2007-09-20 @ 05:26:19
I guess Rawlings crawled back under his rock...prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-09-20 @ 09:29:58
I am also a blue dog and have not yet left the party. But wait and see. If jihadis take over the party, then I am gone.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 47/56 31/56 78/112 69.6% pie 11 440 574T1,505
P 2008 Senate 29/33 14/33 43/66 65.2% pie 1 360 303T407
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 86 1T167
Aggregate Predictions 79/92 48/92 127/184 69.0% pie


Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved