Comments History
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hideVersion: 6
Whoops, Montana should be lean Rep.
Version: 4
Oregon should be strong Dem.
Tennessee should be strong Rep.
Indiana should be tossup Rep.
Version: 3
Okay, call me optimistic.
Based on a Gore vs. Thompson map.
A few states I would like to comment on (Florida and Virginia edited from last time):
Arkansas - I think Bill Clinton can carry this state for whomever the Democratic candidate is. In 2000, Clinton didn't campaign for Gore because of the Lewinsky affair, and in 2004, a Massachusetts liberal didn't play well here.
Colorado - I think the Centennial State is one of the most Democratic-trending. It elected a Democratic Senator in 2004, a Democratic Governor in 2006, and it appears a Democratic Senator in 2008. Also, the Democratic convention will be held in Denver.
Florida - Feeling of guilt from 537 people turns the state Democratic.
Missouri - It's been a bellwether state since 1904 (except 1956). I think it will continue to be.
New Mexico - I think the Hispanic growth here helps Gore.
Kentucky and West Virginia - I think Gore loses these coal-producing states. He lost them last time around, and his environmentalism won't help him here.
Tennessee - Since Gore couldn't carry his home state last time, and because this Republican-trending state is also Thompson's home state, I think it goes GOP.
Virginia - It's trending Democratic no doubt, due to the rapid growth in the Northern part of the state. If the Dems make a strong effort here in 2008, I think it's possible - it depends how fast Northern VA grows. I decided to go with the Dems because I realized that Webb basically won on a single issue (Iraq), something very hard to do. The war will be even more important in 2008, which will help Gore.
In addition, I dropped the GOP percentage in some of the Midwest states, just because I think someone from the South can appeal better than someone from Massachusetts.
In summary, I think it matters a lot where the candidate is from; therefore, my reasoning for some of these states is that Kerry lost them because he was from Massachusetts. Don't get me wrong, I love Massachusetts, but some of the rest of the country might not feel that way.
Version: 2
Based on a Gore vs. Thompson map.
Just a few states I would like to comment on:
Arkansas - I think Bill Clinton can carry this state for whomever the Democratic candidate is. In 2000, Clinton didn't campaign for Gore because of the Lewinsky affair, and in 2004, a Massachusetts liberal didn't play well here.
Colorado - I think the Centennial State is one of the most Democratic-trending. It elected a Democratic Senator in 2004, a Democratic Governor in 2006, and it appears a Democratic Senator in 2008. Also, the Democratic convention will be held in Denver.
Missouri - It's been a bellwether state since 1904 (except 1956). I think it will continue to be.
New Mexico - I think the Hispanic growth here helps Gore.
Kentucky and West Virginia - I think Gore loses these coal-producing states. He lost them last time around, and his environmentalism won't help him here.
Tennessee - Since Gore couldn't carry his home state last time, and because this Republican-trending state is also Thompson's home state, I think it goes GOP.
Virginia - It's trending Democratic no doubt, due to the rapid growth in the Northern part of the state. If the Dems make a strong effort here in 2008, I think it's possible - it depends how fast Northern VA grows.
In summary, I think it matters a lot where the candidate is from; therefore, my reasoning for some of these states is that Kerry lost them because he was from Massachusetts. Don't get me wrong, I love Massachusetts, but some of the rest of the country might not feel that way.
Version: 1
Wow! I didn't think I'd be making the 2008 map this soon, but I'm excited about the new election season. I know that my map has a lot of tossups, but that's because it's so far from Election Day (not to mention that we don't know who the nominees are!).
2008 President
2007 Governor
2006 U.S. Senate
2006 Governor