Comments History
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hideVersion: 166
I'm officially "worried" again. I've downgraded PA, OH, VA, FL, and NC.
It still looks great for us Dems in all the Gore/Kerry states except perhaps for PA.
CO, NV, IA, and NM are almost certain to flip Democratic thank God.
WV my home state is now a McCain lock. Sad but true.
Version: 165
Time for us Democrats to be worried about Pennsylvania now?
It might pay Obama to visit the "Keystone State" one final time before Tuesday....
Version: 164
It seems at least for the moment that McCain's numbers have peaked thank God! Sadly they're still probably enough to keep Indiana and Missouri Republican.
Arizona John McCain's home state might now be the state to watch in this election?!?!?!?!?!?!
I'm also feeling better about Ohio than I ever have before thank God!
North Carolina also continues to shock me as well. Obama's numbers have stayed up in the state, when I expected them to fall. Hmmm....
Sadly that's not the case for my home state of West Virginia.
But the "other" Virginia on the hand still looks great right now for us Democrats.
Version: 163
I'm getting very worried right now. McCain is gaining big time in the polls. C'mon my fellow Americans! You don't want 4 more years of George W. Bush do you?
Version: 159
What the map would have looked like IMHO if Romney were McCain's running mate instead of Palin. I still think Obama would win, but it would have been much tougher for us Democrats especially in the usually Democratic Northeast and Great Lakes states.
On the other hand Obama would have done better in the South because many white evangelicals would have their doubts about a Mormon as a VP candidate...
Version: 157
It actually looks much better for Obama in Florida and Missouri than in Ohio right now, which surprises me a little bit...
Version: 153
Obama best-case scenario landslide map
Version: 152
My latest map:
After feeling the worst that I've ever felt about Obama's I'm now feeling much better because of McCain and Palin's self-destruction. I hope and pray Obama and Biden keep attacking them too as it seems they've finally gotten the message on that thank God!
It looks surprisingly good for us Democrats in Virginia, and New Mexico. One poll had Obama down in NM and also VA but most have them at least tied if not an Obama lead.
Florida also looks surprisingly close as well.
Even my home state of West Virginia surprisingly looks close.
Indiana and North Carolina look like a longshot but still much closer than they should be Indiana especially.
Ditto Montana and the Dakotas. I still think we can make a run at them as well but not as much as before...
The last few polls in Colorado don't look as good for some reason. I do think we Dems will take CO in the end but right now I still have it as Republican.
Ditto for New Hampshire and Nevada.
I've been really disappointed in Nevada's poll numbers. This is a Democratic year and NV should be firmly in our column but maybe since McCain is from neighboring Arizona they might like him more there than I originally thought they would. That might be true for Colorado and New Mexico as well CO especially.
New Hampshire favors Obama now by a 2 to 4 point margin.
Minnesota is too close for my liking. I do have it as lean Democratic but I might be too generous in that. Still I think it will stay Democratic in the end by about at least a 4 point margin.
Ditto for Michigan and especially Wisconsin. I surprisingly feel better about WI than MI now.
I also think Washington and Oregon are also too close for comfort as well.
Iowa on the other hand looks like a Democratic lock thank God, at least for now...
Pennsylvania has tightened up once again. However in the end I still think it will go for Obama by 3 to 5 points.
As for my 2nd favorite state Kentucky, it sadly looks like McCain has just about wrapped that state up. If WV is very close however I can Obama limiting McCain's advantage in the Bluegrass State to single digits. Maybe the eastern Kentucky Democrats will vote for Obama after all, just like their fellow WV and VA coalfield voters....
I'm sadly not very optimistic on our chances in Ohio Ohio Ohio right now. McCain has opened up a good lead there according to Ohio standards. We Democrats might have to win this election without Ohio this time. Sad but true....
My next map will be Obama's best case scenario....
Version: 151
good news: we Democrats are still suprisingly ahead in Virginia right now. I have VA as Dem but that is probably very optimistic of me to do so.
I'm being very generous on Colorado as well. I think Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning there though. Not good....
I also have my home state of WV as a tossup: recent poll has McCain up over Obama 44-39 with 17 percent "undecided." And from my observations it's true. People in W. Virginia generally don't like either candidate. Sadly Palin McCain's VP mate will probably help McCain here since we have more Pentecostals than any other state in the country and Palin's Pentecostal...
The margin of McCain's victory in our neighbor and "twin" KY won't be as large as most people think it is if WV is that close.
I still think we Dems still have an outside chance at North Carolina, Montana, Indiana, Missouri, and the Dakotas as well.
Iowa almost looks like a sure bet for us. Why can't the rest of the country be like Iowa this time? Sigh....
Wisconsin looks good for us too. I think because the demographics in WI are typical of a state likely to vote for Obama.
Bad news;
Normally blue (red on this map) states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are now tossups. Not good...
Normal battlegrounds Ohio, Missouri, and Florida look very bleak for us at the present time.
Nevada and New Mexico should be Democratic in a "Democratic year" but sadly not so this time....
New Hampshire is still just 50/50.
Right now I have Obama winning but I'm probably being very generous in doing so. If the election were held today sadly McCain would probably win and give us another four years of GWB in the White House.
I think that it's very possible, and hopefully so, that a Democrat can win the White House in the electoral college and still lose the popular vote. Every time it's ever happened a Republican has been the beneficiary. However I would not be surprised to see Obama get blown out in the Red (Blue on this site) states and still be elected president by a short margin in the Blue (Red on this map) states.
I'm hoping and praying Karma is on our side this time lol.
It seems that Americans might be willing to once again throw away our future "in the name of Jesus," when IMHO Jesus himself is very angry at the Republican Party and GWB especially for dishonoring his name.
Sad. But. True.
I have New Hampshire as lean but it should be tossup instead. I tried to change it and it wouldn't let me....
Version: 150
It's the western swing states of Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico where this election will won and lost.
I don't see any other state, at least for now, that is in play.
Of course I still might be 100 percent wrong as usual.
Wait and see as always!
Version: 149
Same as last map, except for these:
New Mexico - lean Obama to tossup McCain (sad but true)
New Hampshire - tossup Obama to lean Obama
North Dakota - tossup McCain to lean McCain (and sadly perhaps maybe solid)
This election shouldn't be this close, but the United States of America sad to say is still apparently very much a Republican country at heart, even after eight years of Bush. Breaking through for us Democrats in the Republican states is still apparently very, very difficult even in a Democratic year. Sad but true.
It basically comes down to Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. We need at least 2 out of those three states to win and/or tie in the electoral college. We take NV and NM but not CO and it's a 269-269 tie. I hope to God that the Democratic congressional delegation votes for us Democrats and don't cross lines if their state votes Republican, because I know for a fact the Republicans won't vote for us if that happens.
Nevada and Colorado look good for us Democrats right now. New Mexico should be going our way but it's not right now. Sad but true.
I don't trust Ohio, Virginia, and probably Florida as well, with the rest of the Republican Red (or blue on this map) states to do the right thing.
Right now we Democrats are probably guaranteed to flip Iowa and keep New Hampshire (though NH is still very much possible for the Republicans) and that's it.
Sad. But. True.
Version: 148
Unlike earlier, it now seems that McCain's bounce from the Republican convention and his VP choice of Sarah Palin has probably peaked thank God, and his biggest gains were in states that would have probably still voted Republican anyway.
Right now I think that the biggest states in this election are most definitely the western states of Colorado and Nevada and perhaps North Dakota?!?!?!?!?! Obama is still polling surprisingly well up there right now, even after McCain's bounce.
I might have to add New Hampshire to that list as well.
Sadly McCain's bounce was higher than Obama's, and thus the race is really a 50/50 tossup again.
I am not banking on Ohio, Virginia, and probably Florida, even though most polls are surprisingly deadlocked there, to come through for us. It still looks like the "western strategy" is the most intelligent one for us Democrats right now. I still think Obama can contend in Montana and the Dakotas as well.
Well it seems sadly enough the red state-blue divide might even be greater than it ever has been except for the Rocky Mountain swing states and the Upper Great Plains. The South is more Republican than ever before. The Northeast, Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes states, and the West Coast are more Democratic than ever before.
The battleground states are these right now in my opinion:
Colorado
Nevada
Montana(?)
North Dakota(?)
South Dakota(?)
All Upper Great Plains states and western states as you probably see here.
But I'm still very worried about the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters and whether enough of them will stick with Obama in order for us to win this election. Right now I'm not very confident that they will return to the fold. If that's the case this map might even possibly mean nothing.
Sad but true.
Version: 147
McCain landslide map, that is if the recent polls are correct.
I'm very, very discouraged right now. It looks like this country still hasn't learned its lesson from the last 8 years. Sigh....
They just love Palin here in Pentecostal W. Virginia. Sad but true.
Obama and Biden need to stop playing "Mr. Nice Guy" and attack both McCain and Palin now!
The Hillary supporters are still not on board either.
R.I.P. United States of America. You have no one to blame but yourselves...
Sigh...
Version: 146
Obama/Biden
vs.
McCain/Palin
I just noticed recently that Sarah Palin is Pentecostal. That's bad news for us Democrats in West Virginia and Kentucky, where I now sadly think that will place McCain over the 60 percent mark because white Pentecostals are very powerful in both states.
The same is also true for Tennessee and Oklahoma.
I'm even more concerned about swing states Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio though. I sadly think Palin's Pentecostalism will play very well there and swing all five states Republican. Sad but true.
Florida does have a quite large Pentecostal population as well. I haven't moved it quite to "lean Republican" yet but am very close to doing so.
And Alaska which we Democrats probably would have carried if any other candidate were on the ticket is now solidly Republican.
On the flip side I think Palin's pick locks up Wisconsin for us. I'm a little more concerned about Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota but I still think we Dems carry all three states.
And even though technically and geographically McCain/Palin is a "Western ticket" it is as weak as a "Western ticket" can possibly be with the lone exception of Palin's home state of Alaska. I think we Democrats are in good shape in Nevada and Colorado right now and probably Montana as well. I think we now have a realistic shot of flipping one if not both of the Dakotas. I now think that even NE-1 and NE-2 are in reach. I think Oregon also is close to a Democratic lock as well. I don't think Palin's Pentecostalism will play very well in Oregon.
I now think Pennsylvania and New Hampshire look great for us Democrats as well.
We still have a long way to go though.
"Go West Young Man" is my advice to the Democrats now!
Wait and See as Always!
Version: 145
Obama/Biden
vs.
McCain/Palin
I thought Obama's VP pick was bad, which I now admit I was 100 percent wrong on. I now think Biden is a good VP pick. It's just that he doesn't expand the electoral map like I hoped we could do this year.
McCain's choice of Palin was really, really bad.
She does shore up Alaska for the Republicans, which I actually believe Obama had a better 50/50 shot of carrying AK if any other VP pick was made.
I think Ohio is probably ours now but Virginia and North Carolina are states to watch too. The reason I think OH will be easier to win than VA or NC is due to surveyusa's last poll on election issues, where OH is surprisingly, at least to me, very favorable towards us Dems and Virginia isn't. If VA isn't than neither is North Carolina either.
I think we carry Colorado, Montana, and Nevada and the Dakotas are both 50/50 tossups.
I still think Indiana will be close as well.
I now feel better about this election than I have for quite some time.
I'm still very concerned about Hillary's supporters though. I still think 10 to 20 percent of them still support McCain. Not good my fellow Democrats. Not good at all, especially in Ohio....
Version: 144
Obama/Biden
vs.
McCain/Romney
As of right now a very, very close election.
I say:
48.2 Obama/Biden
48.1 McCain/Romney
3.7 combined third party: Barr/Nader/McKinney
The 3rd parties could influence everything like they did in 2000, especially in a extremely close election like this one.
I think Obama takes Virginia since Romney is a Mormon and could hurt him among evangelicals in Virginia. North Carolina could even be in play because of that very same reason.
Ohio and Missouri are 50/50 as both states also have a rather large and significant evangelical population. Indiana also has a high percentage of evangelicals as well.
However Romney could help McCain big time in Nevada, Colorado, Alaska, and Montana. Perhaps not as much in Alaska though....
Colorado is 50/50 in this scenario. The Mormon impact there is not as great in Colorado as it is in Nevada and Montana but could be just large enough to keep it in McCain's hands. Man I hope I'm wrong...
Michigan could be the state that decides it all because of Romney's Michigan roots. However I still think it's Democratic enough not to flip, but still it will be fairly tight and decided by 2 points or less IMHO.
Romney could also help McCain big time in New Hampshire since his home state Massachusetts is right next door and NH is not as liberal and Democratic as the rest of the Northeast.
And I'm still very worried about the Clinton supporters right now. It looks like they are still not returning back to the Democratic fold like I thought they eventually would. In a 50/50 country like we have now even a 5 percent swing could change everything, and not for the better. If that happens swing states Virginia and Michigan could very well stay Republican. Man I'm hope I'm 100 percent wrong on that....
Version: 143
key swing states IMHO right now:
Nevada
Colorado
Michigan
Ohio
Virginia
New Hampshire
Florida and Oregon are battlegrounds according to the polls but I'm not completely sold on either of them being swing states in the end....
Michigan and probably New Hampshire won't be either unless Romney is McCain's VP pick.
Version: 142
generic Obama/Biden ticket
a guy capable of many "historic gaffes" and a big credit card company supporter....
also he's no help in the swing states at all, except perhaps for Virginia, and probably none there as well.
Just Say No to Joe!
Version: 141
generic Obama-Mark Warner ticket
If Hillary Clinton is not the VP pick then Warner is our 2nd best option.
Sadly I don't think he'll be chosen either.
And we Democrats desperately need that Senate seat.
I think Warner unlike Hillary Clinton can flip CO and NV and do fine in the other swing states as well, including performing much better than Hillary among independents.
He also puts WV and NC in play, and could surprisingly perform well in KY and TN as well.
OH is a 50/50 dead heat tossup with Warner as the VP pick, and possibly MO as well.
And most of all he most definitely flips VA by a rather substantial margin.
His biggest weakness though is a huge one, at least as far as Americans are concerned: foreign policy.
Sigh....
Version: 140
Well I hate to do this, but do this I must:
I now admit that probably the only way Obama can win this election is with Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
If Hillary is his VP I will "hold my nose" as far as independent voters are concerned and pray they stick with Obama.
The only others I like right now are Wesley Clark, Brian Schweitzer (my 2nd personal favorite), and Evan Bayh.
Mark Warner is my 1st pick, but we need that Senate Seat desperately.
Bill Richardson would have been great too and would flip the West if it weren't for his possible "Bill Clinton"-like scandals, if you know what I mean.
So this is the Obama-Clinton "dream ticket."
Hey if it gets us Democrats elected I'm more than willing to get on the "Hillary train" once again....
Right now this election and our country's future are most definitely worth "holding our noses" for, including adding Hillary to the ticket.
She is the only proven candidate as for now IMHO that can flip the huge swing states of OH, FL, and MO for us Democrats, and lock up two other key swing states PA and MI for us.
Of course we might have to sacrifice the western states AK, CO, NV, MT, and the Dakotas in the process, which could definitely hurt us in the long run as it doesn't "expand the map" like I hoped we Democrats could do without Hillary.
But we need a Democrat in the White House right now! Forget the "long run," at least for now.
We can't wait until 2012. We need a Democrat in the White House in 2009!
And I'm more than willing to "hold my nose" and tolerate Hillary Clinton as our VP mate for that to happen.
And she needs to tell her meddling husband to "bug off" too.
Heck she may even put WV and KY in play believe it or not....
I don't think Joe Biden, Tim Kaine, or Kathleen Sebelius can win this thing for us.
All Biden does is shore up DE, PA, and NJ for us, and we would have carried them anyway. No help at all in the Midwest, South, or West. Also is a big "credit card company" supporter since most if not all of them are located in DE his home state.
Tim Kaine only helps us in VA of course, and possibly NC and WV and that's it.
Sebelius won't even help us Democrats carry her home state, or any others either except perhaps MO and hopefully CO.
I don't think he'll pick Hillary Clinton, but he does have a knack for the dramatic so you never know with him....
Version: 138
McCain is now ahead for the very 1st time in Colorado.
This election is slowly but surely slipping away from us Democrats.
Senator Obama you must run more TV ads and do so soon.
My fellow Americans what in the world are you thinking? Do you really want another 4 years of George W. Bush in the White House?
Sigh....
Version: 137
We Democrats will probably have to go out West to win this election. I just don't have faith that voters in states like Ohio, Missouri, and Florida will do the right thing unless Hillary is Obama's running mate and in any circumstance Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina as well.
I trust the Westerners and voters in the Dakotas much more than voters in the states I just listed.
I actually think we Democrats have a better chance at carrying Montana and Nevada than we do Virginia right now regardless of what most so-called experts think.
This map will mean absolutely nothing if Romney is McCain's running mate which is very possible right now. You can completely disregard this map and my whole entire analysis if that happens, which very well could any day now....
The same is true for us Democrats if Hillary Clinton is our VP pick.
I do think that Kentucky and West Virginia will be much closer than most people think, especially if Romney is McCain's running mate which will definitely make KY and WV even closer than I probably imagine and possibly even tossups believe it or not if the right things happen....
Update: I just checked out the latest surveyUSA poll, and sadly Kentucky and probably W. Virginia too both look like lost causes now no matter whom the VP picks are....
Sigh....
Version: 136
generic Obama/Bayh ticket
Version: 134
Obama/Schweitzer
vs.
McCain/Romney
Brian Schweitzer negates Romney's strength out west and could even flip one or both of the Dakotas for us Democrats.
I also think VA flips no matter whom the Dem VP choice is if Romney is the Republican VP nominee. NC is now a tossup as well. Perhaps maybe even IN, OH, MO, and FL.
MI will be a tossup no matter whom the Dem nominee is if Romney is on the ticket.
NH will be tougher as well.
I think only H. Clinton, Schweitzer, and Bayh are capable of beating a McCain/Romney ticket, at least for now...
Tim Kaine I'm not sure of, simply because I don't think he can match Romney out west or a general Republican ticket in the South except perhaps his home state of VA, and maybe not even there, or possibly worse even Michigan as well....
Version: 133
Obama/Kaine
vs.
McCain/Romney
Tim Kaine would be a disastrous with a capital D choice for us Democrats!
Please Senator Obama reconsider your position before you choose Tim Kaine as your VP pick.
Version: 132
Obama/H. Clinton
vs.
McCain/Romney
I'm starting to believe that Obama might have to pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate to win this November. It's not the ideal situation for us Democrats but it might be the only ticket that can win.
Romney hurts us Democrats big time in the West except for the West Coast and New Mexico and is the only VP candidate capable of keeping Colorado Republican in 2008 in my honest opinion. This is true for New Hampshire and Michigan even though MI is still Democratic enough not to flip IMHO.
However he hurts McCain big time in Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina and yes with Hillary on the ticket Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky as well.
Romney also makes Mississippi and Georgia more interesting than they normally will be, especially with the huge African-American turnout expected this election.
Hillary Clinton is weak out west as you might expect. I even considered placing Oregon as a tossup but I still think we Democrats will win it by 4 to 6 points.
Hillary Clinton solidifies Pennsylvania for us Democrats and most likely the key swing states Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico because of the Hispanic vote as well.
She could help Obama flip Indiana and Arkansas as well especially with Romney as McCain's running mate.
Romney only helps McCain in one Midwestern state - Michigan - and that's it. He loses the rest of the Midwest including Indiana because of the evangelical vote there.
Version: 131
Go West young man! The western states of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska, and yes even McCain's home state of Arizona, along with the Dakotas are where this election will be won and lost.
Romney scares the heck out of me in those states and in Michigan, New Hampshire, and yes Ohio as well.
Sadly I'm suddenly not as confident in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri. Sadly if Romney is the nominee I also might have to add Michigan to the list.
I think the Red State-Blue State divide is greater than ever with the exception of the Dakotas, and the western states.
Version: 130
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
i think romney will be mccain's VP choice. he will hurt us democrats in the western swing states of montana and nevada and in michigan as well but could help us democrats in the south because of white evangelicals' reluctance to vote for a mormon. still i might be overly generous in giving georgia and mississippi to the democrats, but could very well flip them with a southerner like john edwards as obama's running mate.
i think ohio will surely go democratic and missouri as well by a whisker, once again because of white evangelicals not liking romney.
i flipped new hampshire as republican only because of romney.
i've heard that edwards took himself out of the VP spot. i hope he is still in the running.
i still think we democrats will carry colorado and michigan but they will be much tougher will romney on the ticket.
Version: 128
The Red State-Blue State divide is greater than ever with the following exceptions, most of them in the Western states:
Virginia
Missouri
Colorado
Montana
The Dakotas
Ohio
Indiana(?)
North Carolina(?)
Nevada(?)
Florida(?)
Arizona(?)
Alaska(?)
Nebraska Cong. Districts 1 and 2(?)
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Version: 126
No, that's not a misprint. Arizona is more than likely turning blue even with McCain at the top of the ticket. He is in big time trouble in his home state right now.
So far that hasn't hurt him in nearby Nevada for some reason. Hmmm....
Version: 125
Contrary to what the political experts are saying, there is probably more division between the Red states and Blue states than ever before.
The Red States are getting redder and the Blue States are getting bluer with the exception of the Western states, the upper Plains' States, and very few swing states elsewhere.
The Red State-Blue State Divide is still alive and well in 2008, with the exception of the Western states and the Dakotas.
I once thought the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes were the region where the election would be won and lost. I was wrong. Obama is opening up a huge lead there even in normally 50/50 Iowa and Wisconsin. Obama is even winning big in Michigan now.
The Northeast should be Obama's too fairly easily.
The same is true in reverse for possibly Appalachia and most definitely the South. They'll be closer because of a huge African-American turnout and that's it.
It will most likely be the Western states:
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana(Yes!)
Alaska(Yes!)
Arizona(possibly even with McCain at the top of the ticket!)
Oregon(Hopefully by a much larger margin)
the Dakotas, and Ohio where this election will be won and lost, and so far it's great news for us Democrats, even with lifelong westerner John McCain on top of the Republican ticket. Romney might help a little if he's the VP ticket simply because he's Mormon, but I doubt it.
The West Coast looks great for us Democrats except for possibly Oregon, and I think it will come around eventually.
Missouri, Florida, and Ohio are 50/50 as always.
Virginia and North Carolina will stay Republican only because of the heavy evangelical influence in both states. McCain leads 69-21 percent among white evangelicals.
I still think Obama can make a run at West Virginia and Kentucky if he pays attention to those states as well. Right now I'm playing it safe and leaving them as solid Republican.
I'm playing it cautious with Indiana as well as I have it as lean Republican. But really Indiana is probably a tossup state. Boy I hope so!
Version: 123
it looks like the red states are sadly getting redder and the blue states bluer once again just like 2000 and 2004, if not more so....
except for OH, CO, NM, IA, VA, and perhaps NC, ND, and IN
the red state-blue state divide while not quite as strong as in 2000 and 2004 is sadly still the rule rather than the exception in most cases.
Version: 122
updated obama/mccain
Version: 121
Obama/Edwards generic ticket
Version: 120
a generic obama-bayh ticket.
bayh helps us Democrats in three ways.
1. he is loved by the clinton voters and was a strong hillary backer
2. he helps us Democrats in the region that will decide our next president: the Midwest and in Pennsylvania as well. he even makes WV and KY a lot closer and should help us just enough to flip VA and his home state of IN Dem as well.
3. his foreign policy experience
Version: 119
updated obama/clinton "dream ticket" map
Version: 118
a generic obama/clinton "dream ticket" map.
hillary clinton's electoral impact is much greater than most VP candidates.
she helps obama flip WV and makes KY, TN, AR, and GA virtual tossups.
i messed up. i now think that hillary will flip AR as well. too late to change though. oh well...
she also solidifies NM, MO, OH, PA, MI, and FL for us Dems as well.
on the flip side she makes obama's work tougher in ND, SD, NE, KS, CO, MT, AZ, AK, WA, and OR and increases mccain's margin in ID, UT, and WY.
Version: 117
updated obama vs. mccain map
Version: 116
I don't know what the heck is going on in Minnesota but surveyUSA has it as a virtual tossup right now....
I also made MI a tossup too because of these numbers.
I left IA and WI where there at, but since MN and MI are closer I sadly might have to readjust them too.
We Democrats cannot afford to lose either MN or MI, much less both. They are probably two key Kerry states we must hold onto this election....
Version: 115
KY and WV will be a lot closer than most people think they will be.
And most definitely McCain's home state of AZ will be surprisingly be decided by 5 points or less.
MI and NJ on the other hand won't be as close as most people currently think....
Version: 112
we democrats had better find a way to hold on to michigan, or sadly we might lose this election....
Version: 109
obama-mccain moderate blowout victory map, which i think will happen except perhaps for FL, NH and OH
republican locks: OK, KY, WV, UT, ID, WY
republican leans: KS, TN, AR, AL, AZ
all the other states obama is at least somewhat competitive or way ahead
i placed FL, IN, MO, VA, and NC as Democratic tossups as all three could go either way....
i put most of the rest of the other swing states as Republican-leaning that will most likely be decided by 5 or less points...
i think we democrats might very well carry NE-1 and NE-2...
Version: 108
obama vs. mccain as of right now
i actually think the margin will be much greater than this because of recent democratic wins in U.S. house races in louisiana and mississippi
that's why i have all the southern states with large african-american populations as tossups
Version: 107
obama/mccain blowout map
Version: 106
obama/bayh
vs.
mccain/romney
bayh helps obama flip 50/50 states OH, IN, MI, and WI for us democrats and makes MO closer
VA and NC poll numbers have tightened up again....
Version: 105
the barack obama polarization poll, with the southern and non-southern states with the exception of ohio and new hampshire (don't ask me why) more polarized than ever.
Version: 104
updated obama-mccain map
Version: 103
updated clinton-mccain map
in my home state of WV it will be 50.5/49.5 if not closer, and i'm not joking!
recent polls show both obama and clinton defeating mccain in indiana. if we democrats win indiana we win the white house. it's as simple as that. doesn't matter if the nominee is clinton or obama....
Version: 102
obama vs. mccain best case scenario
Version: 101
clinton vs. mccain best case scenario
Version: 100
obama vs. mccain worst case scenario
similar to hillary clinton's except he does manage to keep OR, WA, MN, and ME unlike her.
Version: 99
clinton-mccain worst case scenario
next four maps:
obama-mccain worst case scenario
clinton-mccain best case scenario
obama-mccain best case scenario
clinton-mccain map according to polls now having her with a 50-41 lead
Version: 98
obama/bayh
vs.
mccain/romney
in my opinion bayh is the 2nd best choice for obama if hillary clinton is not the VP candidate. that is if it's even possible to do so in the first place. he might have to pick hillary clinton as his running mate like it or not or else risk losing her supporters' votes in november. i'm 50/50 on that right now.
i also think hillary will gladly accept this position even though most democrats both clinton and obama supporters will disagree with me i'm sure.
right now IN could be the shock of this election especially with bayh as obama's running mate.
NC could give the republicans another "nasty surprise" as well.
and most importantly bayh helps obama win OH as well.
and bayh should be able to keep most - not all but at least 90 percent - of clinton voters in the fold since he is a good personal friend of the clintons whom i think is open to obama as well.
i think obama will eventually reach out to clinton voters anyway. still i think he might have to place her as his VP running mate in order to win their votes in order to do so. i'm 50/50 on that right now.
i think obama and clinton will eventually settle their differences. it's their rabid supporters i'm worried about. every liberal blog's comments have a nasty tone both from obama and clinton supporters. i'm 50/50 right now as to whether it will hurt us in november or not. i hope and pray it doesn't. right now though it doesn't look good....
h. clinton on the other hand may not have a 2nd choice. it's almost obama or no one at all for her. her 2nd best choice might - and this is a huge "might" - be john edwards. even then her campaign will have to promise african-american voters something to keep them in the fold this year. i'm 50/50 on that one as well. it all depends upon whether african-americans will bury the hatchet and work together with the clintons or not. i'm 50/50 on that one as well.
her husband bill clinton cost her the nomination. it's as simple as that. she should be the nominee right now. instead she only has at best a 10 percent chance at the nomination.
maybe al gore wasn't wrong for not including him in his 2000 campaign after all....
the MSM is making out both clinton and obama to be worse candidates than they really are. they both will make great presidents 100 percent certain. i'll proudly support either one of them as president.
still i'm absolutely shocked that many black voters turned on hillary clinton even after his comments, especially after they considered him to be the "first black president." i didn't think his comments would hurt hillary clinton among blacks nearly as much as they did....
Version: 97
clinton/obama
vs.
mccain/romney
the unity ticket except this time with clinton as the democratic presidential nominee
Version: 96
obama/clinton
vs.
mccain/romney
yes i do believe obama and clinton will eventually work out their differences and become a unity ticket even though i'm sure most will disagree with me on this.
i have NV, CO, and NM as democratic but with westerner mccain and mormon romney on the ticket they could easily go republican as well. they are all 50/50 in this instance.
hillary clinton should help obama carry ohio
Version: 95
updated obama vs. mccain
NV now going to mccain.
it doesn't look very good for us democrats now sigh...
our country will most definitely be on the rocks if mccain wins...
Version: 94
updated clinton vs. mccain
Version: 93
obama vs. mccain
a very important day in american history today in pennsylvania. it will be very, very interesting to see what happens.
Version: 92
clinton vs. mccain
Version: 91
updated obama vs. mccain map
we democrats need to hold on to NH desperately. i'm very concerned about NH right now. mccain is doing very well there. he leads both clinton and obama right now by about the same margin.
NM is even more of a concern. i'm very concerned about it right now. mccain beats both clinton and obama there. for a while it looked like it was almost a guaranteed lock for us democrats. not anymore however....
NV and CO on the other look great for us democrats, as well as WA and OR.
CA is a bit of a concern right now but we dems should hang on to it mostly because it's a democratic state. the hispanic vote there still troubles me though....
this race will probably still boil down to MI, OH, and PA.
obama leads by a whisker in MI and PA but trails by the same whisker in OH....
i think we dems will come close in the dakotas and nebraska but still lose them but have a great shot believe it or not at eastern NE's congressional electoral vote....
IN could get very interesting as well....
as well as NC and SC, and possibly even TX(?) and AK(?).
NC could be a "very nasty surprise" for republicans on election day. NC has the strongest democratic base in the south and is the most progressive state in the south in my opinion with a surprising highs number of whites willing to vote for obama.
and yes that includes VA. i do expect VA to tighten up before election day though...
SC is close too but i think it's too republican for us democrats to win...
i think obama even makes the dakotas and nebraska interesting and has a great shot at taking eastern nebraska's electoral vote....
i meant to place OK as strong instead of lean....
and that one little electoral vote could even be the one that places obama over the top in the 2008 presidential election believe it or not....
hmmm....
Version: 90
updated clinton vs. mccain map
i'm probably being overly optimistic esp. on KY, but she is only behind there by 2 points now according to surveyusa and i actually has a chance there of pulling KY out believe it or not.
i think if she's just behind by 2 in KY, i think other states will even be more positive for her. i think WV, TN, MO, and AR all flip if KY's a virtual tossup like it is now.
this is the first time in quite a while i have had WV on the good side. this would be the classic "evangelical vs. non-evangelical" match-up to see who has more power here. really the same is true about our "older brother" KY as well..
i still think she's got a shot at the dem nomination, but she needs at least a double digit win in PA and IN to keep her slim hopes alive and keep NC within double digits as well.
she'll blow out obama in KY and WV no question about it. both 80-20 at the very minimum in both cases. i say most likely 85-15. obama's small town comments have hurt him here in appalachia more than anywhere else in the country.
she also does much better than obama in critical OH and PA. i think obama still carries PA but not OH.
h. clinton could even make IN interesting....
she also makes FL and MO 50/50 while obama loses both big. i even think she'll carry FL and MO 50.5 to 49.5
NM poll results are sadly very, very discouraging for us democrats. it appears mccain is stronger there than i originally thought he was.
the same is true for VA too if not even more disappointing.
NV poll results on the other hand very encouraging. right now even hillary is ahead in NV.
as for my vote in the may 5, 2008 i was leaning heavily towards obama before these poll results. but now for the 1st time in a while doubt has creeped back into my mind. i want the most winnable candidate because we can't afford another four years of george w. bush in the white house.
obama does much better in the upper midwestern and great lakes' states. he carries IA and WI rather handily while hillary actually loses them. MN will be much easier for obama than hillary. MI is the same for either clinton or obama. hillary even makes IN interesting....
if hillary is the nominee forget about KS, MT, CO, ND, SD, and NE being in play for us democrats.
the same is true for obama in WV, KY, TN, FL, MO, and AR.
obama should carry OR and WA much easier than clinton, even though i still think she carries them too.
NM results very discouraging for us democrats with either hillary or obama.
NV on the other hand very encouraging. even hillary is ahead there.
i think there's still a chance hillary could win the nomination but she'll have to beat obama in double digits in both PA and IN to even continue her campaign. she'll win both KY and WV at least 80-20 and probably more than likely 85-15. she'll lose big in OR though, most likely at least by a 60-40 margin. i also think obama carries NC by at least a 55-45 margin.
there's is only a 25 percent chance at best she'll win the nomination.
if she loses her husband is the reason why. his comments right before the SC primary cost her the precious african-american vote. she would be our nominee today if it weren't for him i believe. still i am bit surprised that the african-american community reacted that strongly to his comments, especially considering he was so popular with them before, with even most of them saying he was "the only black president."
if hillary clinton is the nominee she'll have to pick obama as her running mate or else she'll lose a ton of african-american votes and support. if obama is her VP running mate i think she'll keep african-americans in the democratic fold. there is no way she can win without obama as her running mate IMHO. however i'm only 50/50 as to whether obama would agree to be her VP running mate though. if he wants us dems to win he'll have to accept no question about it if hillary clinton is in fact the nominee.
Version: 89
updated obama vs. mccain map
moved KY from 60 to 70 percent mccain
moved SD from tossup to lean mccain
moved NH from tossup obama to tossup mccain
changed NE congressional district 1 from tossup democratic to tossup republican
moved TN from 50 to 60 percent mccain
worst of all PA back to slight edge for mccain
ditto NH
sadly obama's small-town comments have swayed just enough voters to mccain to give him the edge right now, even though i do agree with obama. sadly the majority of my fellow americans especially here in appalachia strongly disagree with me.
Version: 88
updated obama vs. mccain map
looking somewhat better for us democrats happy to say
Version: 87
updated generic obama vs. mccain map
we need a midwestern moderate white male like evan bayh to hopefully get us back on track. i checked the latest polls and they were all bad for us democrats.
why my fellow americans? why do you want 4 more years of the same stuff we've had for 7 years now?
that's apparently what my fellow americans want, and i am not at all happy about it.
sad but true.
Version: 86
obama vs. mccain
right now it looks like it's all up to pennsylvania, michigan and ohio. right now obama is behind by the hair of his chinny chin chin in MI 50.1/49.9 and OH by about 50.5/49.5.
pennsylvania shows obama up 50.5/49.5 too. PA is within a single percentage point either way. PA is really too close to call right now just like MI and OH.
i think the two vp candidates to put us over the top there are evan bayh who will help us in OH or russ feingold who will help us in MI.
also we could get either wes clark or jim webb to perhaps flip VA. but that's far less likely to work because i still think we lose VA by a whisker even with either of them on the ticket.
really vp candidates sway just a tiny few voters. but in a 50/50 election like we have right now it doesn't take much to swing a state in one direction or the other.
i fully expect a mccain/romney ticket. i have noticed that social conservatives and evangelicals want huckabee or a right-wing evangelical someone like that but i disagree. mccain has the south already. romney scares me to death in 50/50 nevada, colorado, michigan, pennsylvania and new hampshire. a mccain/romney ticket will make a usually solidly democratic northeast much more interesting than it usually is. too interesting for my taste lol.
Version: 85
i said i wouldn't do another hillary clinton map again. i lied lol, because there has been some interesting developments recently.
her last poll in AR had her losing to mccain. i still think she takes AR in the end but it won't be as easy as i originally thought it would have been.
the latest hillary poll in TN is much much worse. she trails by mccain by i think twelve points there now.
hillary's currently leading in my home state of WV, NV, and FL.
don't believe the WV poll. yes i believe WV is closer with her as the nominee than obama but i think she still loses it 51/49. my home state has been taken over by conservative christians pentecostals especially, and they dislike her just as much as obama. since TN polls look much better for mccain i think the next clinton-mccain poll in my home state will be similar. sad but true.
i think FL stays republican too but FL will be decided by a whisker either way. that almost always favor republicans.
50.1/49.9 either way.
as for NV it's really really close there right now. i flipped a coin and it came up dem lol. seriously though NV could go either way. obama though should win NV easily even with a potential mccain/romney ticket strong in the west. right now i think hillary wins it 50.1/49.9!
i think AZ would have turned democratic this year with any other republican nominee besides mccain. sigh....
ditto for WA staying dem even though polls have mccain winning it. i think WA is too democratic for that to happen.
OR goes republican because mccain's strong there and hillary's weak there. but it still could go to hillary too. this time the coin landed in mccain's favor lol.
ditto for NH, IA, MI, OR and WI except sadly the other way.
she should win OH and PA quite handily. i think obama is looking much better in PA and even OH but i'm not buying into him winning OH because southern OH is like WV and KY in its voting habits.
she loses CO 54/46 while obama carries it by 52/48.
in a clinton-mccain race it's all up to FL just like it was in 2000.
advantage most definitely mccain. sad but true.
as for obama i believe the dakotas' and nebraska surveyusa polls are legit to my surprise but i have to see more of them before i am 100 percent convinced....
that said i think hillary's toast as far as the democratic nomination is concerned. right now obama is catching up with her fast in PA. i think hillary needs to win PA by at least 10 points to keep on going, and i think obama is now within single digits of her in PA now.
MI could decide this election too. i left it as republican because of the "reagan democrats" who love mccain there but i still think it could go to hillary too. also the MI and FL vote situations could both come back to bite us well no matter whom's nominee clinton or obama.
update: new surveyusa PA poll now has clinton up by 18 points over obama instead of just single digits.
if that's true it's going to the convention. it's as simple as that.
that said, i am extremly proud of both of hillary clinton and barack obama. they both will be great presidents. i am supporting whoever is the democratic nominee for president, and will do so proudly.
they are both way better than john mccain. that's 100 percent certain!
Version: 84
future electoral map if obama wins this election and has a very successful presidency.
i have MD and DE as republican only because technically they are south of the mason-dixon line. they will most definitely be part of the future democratic majority 100 percent certain.
VA will be democratic too IMHO even though it is a southern state since northern VA will be heavily democratic in the future.
DC is technically south of the mason-dixon line too but i still left it as democratic for obvious reasons.....
Version: 83
obama/bayh
vs.
mccain/romney
i think bayh is our best hope right now since it now appears the midwestern states and pennsylvania will decide this election.
i think feingold is our 2nd best option.
Version: 82
sadly placed new jersey and new hampshire in mccain's column.
also placed texas as lean instead of tossup. otherwise the map stays the same. i'm very worried about colorado and minnesota too right now.
hillary clinton and barack obama you need to stop your fighting between each other and band together to fight john mccain, an overrated but still yet for some strange reason popular republican candidate whom independents still love even after pandering to the radical right.
maybe having al gore as a compromise candidate isn't such a bad idea after all. however it should have been done earlier since all that will do now is make the democratic primary voters feel like they've all voted in vain.
i guess we democrats still need to educate the moderate and independent voters that voting for mccain is voting for 4 more years of the same republican stuff. he talks like a moderate but instead he is a "conservative in moderate's clothing."
most democratic voters both clinton and even most obama supporters want the election to continue and all the votes counted, and yes that includes michigan and florida.
the only good news right now is that democrats still are turning out in record numbers in primaries. if that happens in november we still should win.
but with 28 percent of clinton supporters and 19 percent of obama supporters now saying that they'll vote for mccain instead that's nothing but trouble for us dems. i think even half that number will lose the election for us democrats and put mccain in the white house for 4 more years of george w. bush.
sad but true.
Version: 81
updated obama vs. mccain map. it looks like the election is sadly slowly but surely slipping away from us democrats. virginia is not even looking as good for us democrats right now according to recent polls.
obama has even fallen behind in wisconsin whereas before he had a solid lead there.
clinton and obama are now both losing substantially to mccain.
wake up my fellow americans, my fellow democrats especially. you'll get 4 more years of bush if you vote for mccain.
what are my fellow americans thinking?
sad but true.
Version: 80
obama vs. mccain
the three states that will most likely decide the next president of the united states in my honest opinion:
michigan
ohio
pennsylvania
others that could determine winner as well:
colorado
virginia
new hampshire
minnesota(?)
new jersey(?)
wisconsin(?) i actually have it as lean in obama's favor
nevada(?) same as wisconsin
iowa(?) same as wisconsin and nevada
new mexico(?) same as WI, NV, and IA
florida(?) i have it as lean for mccain
north dakota(?)
south dakota(?)
nebraska(?)
missouri(?) looks awful for us democrats right now
texas(?)
Version: 79
updated generic obama vs. mccain map
i still think we dems will carry new jersey when all is said and done, but i'm erring on the side of caution this time.
it still looks bleak for obama in my home state of west virginia.
i'm shocked obama is still winning in virginia
Version: 78
obama vs. mccain generic matchup
states we democrats are behind in but must win to take back the white house:
ohio of course
pennsylvania
michigan
tossup states we won in 2004 and must have this time:
new jersey
new hampshire
other states we must hold on to:
minnesota
wisconsin
oregon
washington
2004 bush states we mostly will pickup this time:
iowa
nevada
colorado
new mexico
states that are 50/50:
virginia
north dakota believe it or not!
nebraska believe it or not as well!
south dakota too even though current polls are not showing it since it's usually more democratic than north dakota
missouri looks rather bleak for us right now.
to me texas is by far the biggest shocker: according to surveyusa obama is just behind by one point. that would be a miracle come true for us democrats to carry it.
florida is even surprisingly close!
kentucky and west virginia remain the two most republican states in the union, and yes that still includes utah, idaho, and wyoming. only oklahoma comes close to us, and perhaps arkansas?!?!?!?!?!?!
rasmussen even has hillary clinton down in arkansas right now?!?!?!?!
i still think it could be after jan. 20, 2009 before we know whom the winner is....
Version: 77
clinton/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
edwards is one of only three and at the most 5 vp candidates capable of flipping my home state of west virginia: kaine, webb, and at a longer shot braesden or easley
edwards flips VA for her just by the slimmest of margins
edwards makes TN and NC closer but mccain still takes them
this will be the last hillary clinton poll i do on here for a while because she needs a complete miracle to win the nomination now, and it's a 10 percent chance at best
Version: 76
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
i think edwards is currently the top vp pick for obama right now, with bill richardson a close second
i'm hoping and praying edwards will flip ohio, virginia, pennsylvania, and possibly but less likely missouri for us democrats
edwards should keep republicans from receiving 60 percent in my home state. still obama loses west virginia 58-42
and obama still loses kentucky 60-40
kentucky and west virginia still are the two most republican states in america even with edwards who is strong in both states on the ticket.
edwards does help obama immensely in virginia and possibly but only as a long shot his home state of north carolina and south carolina as well.
edwards hopefully helps obama carry virginia, ohio, and pennsylvania by 50.5/49.5 or less margins
Version: 75
obama/clinton
vs.
mccain/romney
mccain and romney have overcome their differences. i hope and pray clinton and obama can do the same. this whole entire election depends upon it.
key states: ohio, michigan, virginia, missouri, wisconsin, minnesota; we democrats must carry at least 4 if not more of those states to win the election imho.
nader could very well swing all these important states to the republicans. sad but true.
kentucky and west virginia are now even more republican than even solidly republican utah, idaho, wyoming, indiana, north dakota, south dakota, and nebraska if obama's the nominee, and now are the most republican states in the union. wow, i never ever dreamed i'd see that in my entire lifetime.
we dems lost KY and WV probably for good after the united mine workers of america lost all their power here. KY and WV have now returned back to their southern roots.
despite the polls i don't think hillary clinton can win west virginia either. two much southern evangelical influence. evangelicals here hate hillary clinton too. the non-evangelical vote won't change that even though they absolutely love her here in the mountain state.
i still think it will be at least weeks if not months and possibly even after jan. 20, 2009 to decide the winner. yes i believe it will be that close.
obama 48.6 percent
mccain 48.4 percent
nader 2 percent
Version: 74
clinton/obama
vs.
mccain/romney
Version: 73
reverend's wright's obama's pastor's comments have sadly hurt obama this time.
surveyusa's recent polls
missouri: mccain 53, obama 39 (?!?!?!?!?!)
ohio: mccain 50, obama 43
kentucky: mccain 64, obama 28 (?!?!?!?!?!)
looks like my prior prediction of KY and WV going 70 percent republican wasn't as far-fetched as even i thought it was.
we democrats lost our best and perhaps our only hope of winning when we voted against john edwards being our nominee.
i don't think hillary clinton can win either.
these polls were taken before obama's speech however. i hope and pray it's enough to stop the bleeding. sigh....
Version: 72
obama/clinton
vs.
mccain/romney
the great speech by obama helped him immensely today.
WV and KY have sadly moved into solid republican category.
ND still shockingly looking great for us, and perhaps NE as well!
MO and PA not so much
OH looking surprisingly good
the state i'm waffling on this time is VA. left it as republican now but it'a a 50/50 dead heat there, just like MO.
the west is definitely looking better for us dems.
Version: 71
same as last month except i added OR, PA, MI, and OH back to the democratic side,
and added VA in the other direction.
we dems can't win imho if we don't win michigan.
OH is a 50/50 deadlock right now. obama and clinton are both ahead of mccain in recent polls in OH.
i think PA will eventually come back to us democrats when all is said and done.
ditto for MI and OR
OH i am very very unsure of right now.
ditto MO, VA, WI, and NH
bush's numbers in PA:
26 percent approve
65 percent disapprove
that's difficult for any republican to overcome including popular john mccain.
OH, NM, and MO all will be decided at least a week after election day is over if not longer! and possibly VA, PA, OR, CO, NV, WI, and NH as well! i say the winner won't be known for at least a month after election day's over believe it or not and even maybe not known until after inauguration day!
and perhaps even ND, SD, and NE believe it or not!
ralph nader is currently receiving anywhere between 4 and 6 percent of the vote right now in recent polls. he does that and we democrats have absolutely no shot at winning in november! no shot at all!
go away ralph nader! you're not welcome in the democratic party anymore, at least in my honest opinion!
Version: 70
obama/clinton
vs.
mccain/romney
according to this weekend's polls
not even one solid state except for district of columbia and obama's home state of illinois.
no state crosses 60 percent mark
not even idaho, utah, and wyoming are solid
very very many tossups
this race could go either way. right now sadly mccain is even ahead in MO, MI, and PA and i think OH is sadly mccain's at least for now.
i just can't pull the trigger on north dakota and nebraska flipping just yet.
obama 48.8 percent
mccain 48.3 percent
nader 1.9 percent
nader could end up costing us democrats again like he did in 2000. he costs us OR, WI, MI, NH, and OH.
Version: 69
obama/clinton joyfully putting all their differences aside and working hand in hand as a team to defeat mccain/romney.
i'm hoping and praying they'll do so soon for the good of the party and more importantly the survival of our country.
mccain/romney would just be another 4 years of bush/cheney disguised as different persons.
Version: 68
this is what i predict will happen if senators clinton and obama don't stop their bickering soon. sad but true.
please senators clinton and obama stop it before you destroy our chances in november!
my next map will be what will happen if clinton and obama put all their differences behind them.
what a difference that will make!
united we stand divided we fall
Version: 67
obama/clinton
vs.
mccain/romney
i'm very very worried about this matchup. a very scary scenario for us democrats indeed.
yes west virginia and kentucky are the two most republican states on here. i never ever dreamed i'd say that in my entire lifetime! sad but true.
Version: 66
updated obama vs. mccain map
Version: 65
hillary clinton 2012 blowout map
barack obama blowout map was my last version number 64
Version: 64
most hillarious map yet.
2012 barack obama landslide map.
my home area never learns, still lives in the dark ages, and still votes republican, along with wyoming, idaho, and utah as always.
coming up
2012 hillary clinton landslide map.
Version: 63
clinton vs. mccain
i still think obama will win the nomination, but this is my opinion of what will happen if h. clinton is the nominee.
either way hillary or obama we dems win imho.
Version: 62
obama vs. mccain
Version: 61
obama-mccain generic blowout map
Version: 60
updated
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
Version: 59
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
Version: 58
clinton/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
Version: 57
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/pawlenty
best obama scenario possible
Version: 56
an interesting
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/huckabee
map.
the map diehard obama supporters say is very possible.
actually this could be more of a logical 2012 map than 2008 map if obama can win this election in 2008 and has a successful presidency.
it would be nice if it would happen this year.
obamamania sweeps every part of the country yes even the deep south.
mccain/huckabee ticket is hurt by squabbling in the republican party, which is very unlike republican tickets in the past.
edwards doesn't completely negate huckabee's strength in the south but does just enough to keep the south closer than expected.
obama easily sweeps the northeast and it's close only in new hampshire.
obama does surprisingly well in the usually solidly republican great plains states and even puts some of them in play believe it or not!
the upper midwest and great lakes states go heavily democratic!
yes even indiana goes 51/49 democratic!
west virginia goes republican by 50.3/49.7 margin.
arkansas stays republican 50.6/49.4 just because of huckabee and him alone.
obama wins by a greater margin in usually very tight wisconsin and missouri than usual.
the south is closer because of a 75 to 80 percent turnout by african-american voters but obama loses them all but virginia which only flips democratic because of the rapidly increasing population of democratic trending northern virginia.
the west is close because of mccain and mccain only. new mexico goes dem by just 1000 or fewer votes and it takes at least one week to decide the state if not longer!
nevada goes 50.2/49.8 for obama!
colorado goes 50.2/49.8 the other way.
wyoming, north dakota, and alaska are all just lean republican in this scenario.
florida remains republican 50.15/49.85 because of cuban americans voting against obama.
mccain even fails to cross the 60 percent mark in idaho and utah.
this is what the main stream media and many obama supporters predict could happen this year. though it's not out of the realm of possibility - just 10 percent or lower imho - it could very well happen.
it all depends upon the 2004 bush states and how they react to an obama candidacy. i think the south is a lost cause except for possibly WV, VA, and AR.
but outside the south i think obama will be very very popular.
i think this map is what the very diehard obama supporters predict will happen. i don't think it will happen at all but it sure would be nice if it did.
wait and see as always!
Version: 55
best case obama scenario map, which i'm hoping and praying will happen if he's the nominee.
wait and see as always!
Version: 54
worst case scenario generic
obama vs. mccain
matchup.
i'm thinking obama and clinton will be forced to join forces to try to keep the democratic party together.
and
john mccain will chose mitt romney as his running mate because i think he keeps the south and the evangelical vote as well.
i do think obama keeps all the 2004 kerry states and adds iowa to our column but that's it.
i said this was a worst case scenario map but in a true worst case scenario map obama loses oregon and wisconsin as well.
this nation could sadly be more polarized than ever.
sad but true.
wait and see as always.
Version: 53
clinton/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
2004 bush states that will flip according to current polls and voting data:
iowa
arkansas
new mexico - though only by a whisker in this instance!
ohio ohio ohio - yes thank God!
2004 kerry states that will slip, according to current polls and voting data:
oregon
wisconsin
2004 bush states that republicans most hold on to not listed above:
nevada
colorado
missouri
indiana
kentucky
west virginia
virginia
florida
2004 kerry states that we democrats most hold on to not listed above:
minnesota - the current poll there has mccain winning but i feel it will stay democratic barring a major pro-republican tide.
washington - same as minnesota
pennsylvania - even though i'm 99 percent sure we democrats will hold on to PA and win it by probably a much bigger margin in 2008 than in 2004 even with mccain on the ticket.
new hampshire: mccain/romney or romney/mccain only republican ticket capable of winning NH imho.
really it's probably ohio ohio ohio that decides it again.
but watch out for new mexico too! see comment below.
wait and see as always!
Version: 52
obama/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
tossup states:
oregon
nevada
colorado
new mexico
missouri
arkansas
indiana
virginia
west virginia
north carolina - because of edwards!
south carolina - because of huge african-american turnout!
florida
new hampshire
and potentially kentucky as well.
wait and see as always!
Version: 51
clinton/edwards
vs.
mccain/romney
Version: 50
h. clinton vs. m. romney
no VP candidates mentioned
Version: 49
generic hillary clinton vs. john mccain map
no VP candidates mentioned as of yet
wait and see as always
Version: 48
edwards(NC)/napolitano(current dem gov of AZ)
vs.
mccain(AZ)/romney(MA)
it's all yours now my friends.
wait and see as always!
Version: 47
clinton/bayh
vs.
mccain/huckabee
one the most favorable tickets for the republicans. i think mccain will pick a socially conservative VP candidate from the south or the midwest. he and possibly romney are probably the only rep front runners who could use help among socially conservative evangelicals, but mccain is the only rep candidate imho who would tolerate a fiscally moderately liberal VP candidate. i don't see rudy g, romney, huckabee himself, or thompson who is about finished i might add, doing so.
western states:
they look very good for mccain. mccain runs better in the west than any other rep candidate. hillary on the other hand runs worse in the west than any other democratic candidate. mccain is either ahead or tied in every western state except CA, HI, and AK. he is even ahead right now in normally democratic OR and NM. he leads by a lean rep margin in his home state of AZ but AZ still could be a tossup since mccain is not as popular in his home state as you might think. sadly he carries all the contested western swing states of NM, CO, NV, and OR. but AZ could be 50/50 too despite it being mccain's home state.
i am very nervous about normally democratic OR, NM, and even WA. mccain has always fared well in these three states and current polls have him with a slight edge in OR and yes even NM. i think WA is democratic enough to stay in our column but OR and NM sad to say are probably not. i think the margin at most is 50.5/49.5 in OR and NM either way with republicans with a slight edge. i think WA is 51.1/48.9 in favor of us democrats but mccain does much better in WA than any other republican candidate 100 percent certain.
plains states:
no impact at all here except for margin in which this by far is the republicans' best matchup here. i have OK as lean rep because of recent polling in OK but it would be probably be solid rep in this instance and i was probably even too generous in making it lean dem. however i believe my friend BushOklahoma is right about OK being more competitive this year than in any election since LBJ's blowout victory in 1964. we shall "wait and see as always."
missouri:
i left MO all by itself in this analysis. this is a virtual dead heat in which i don't see either ticket winning by a margin more than 50.5/49.5 . with neighboring AR to the south i might be slightly generous to her. but she is surprisingly competitive or ahead there right now against all the republican candidates. again we shall "wait and see." and i think bayh will help her some there as well.
arkansas:
just like MO i left it all since it's more dem than the rest of the deep south and because both clinton and huckabee both have AR roots. hillary is down by just a whisker to huckabee but leads every other rep candidate. and even with huckabee on the top of the ticket hillary could carry AR. instead mccain is at the top of the ticket. AR goes dem here but only by at most a 50.5/49.5 margin . again it's "wait and see" time.
upper midwest and great lakes states:
this is probably one of the most favorable matchups for the republicans in a normally democratic region of the country. but i realize that i might have jumped the gun on their strength here because i think bayh will help her here too, and boy will she ever need it since mccain is by far the strongest republican candidate here. WI is 50.5/49.5 at best! i think WI is 50.1/49.9 this time just like 2000 and 2004, and i'm not joking! and mccain is ahead of hillary in WI right now.
IA looks better for hillary clinton, which is peculiar since IA is more socially conservative than WI. but hillary always polls better in IA than WI. thus i left IA as dem but only at the very most 50.5/49.5 yet again.
mccain even makes normally very democratic MN and MI tossups. i still have hillary carrying them but again here this is probably the most favorable matchup for the reps. MI especially is dangerous for us because unlike all the other republicans mccain still does very very well among the "reagan democrats" here in MI and the afore mentioned WI. i think MI is probably 50.7/49.3 dem in this case. mccain does well in MN too but not quite as well as the rest of thest states. i say hillary takes MN by a 51.3/48.7 margin even though once again it's one of if not the most favorable republican matchups.
deep south:
mccain does very well here as expected except there is a possibly that SC, GA, and LA could be lean rep instead of solid rep because mccain might not be well received here as the other republican frontrunners besides mormon romney because mccain isn't as popular among socially conservatives. still mccain sweeps this area.
florida:
a 50/50 dead heat. since mccain has polled very well here in the past i left FL in the republican column. also FL is not trending as dem as the rest of the country in general. still i have FL as 51.5/48.5 at the very most.
northeast:
again mccain is the strongest republican here and yes that does include native northeasterners romney and rudy g. he decisively beat both candidates in NH even though i do admit rudy g didn't campaign all that much here in his attempt to win in FL. i think mccain has a great shot to flip NH which is 50.5/49.5 once again in this scenario. mccain makes ME a tossup as well even though it is 51/49 here instead of 50.5/49.5 and votes dem instead of rep unlike NH . mccain also makes normailly democratic CT a tossup and NJ just lean dem but not as close as NH and ME. mccain makes PA closer but his positive effect there is not as great as in the rest of the northeast.
i even think mccain will make MD and DE lean dem instead of solid. MD and DE are southern states by geography and geography alone. otherwise they are northern states in every other way. still we Dems carry MD and DE even though mccain makes them closer.
upper south and indiana:
my home region actually was my toughest region to analyze believe it or not. i have IN, KY, WV, TN, and NC as lean republican. TN and NC are probably just that. but i was probably too negative on our dems' chances in IN, KY, and WV and they are all probably tossups. but mccain has done very well in those three states in the past so left them at lean rep instead.
and then you have to factor in the evan bayh factor. he most likely makes KY, WV and especially his home state of IN very very competitive. i still think IN, KY, and WV will stay republican but i was probably too negative on dem's chances here especially with bayh on the ticket. mccain however keeps KY, WV and yes even bayh's home state IN republican.
virginia:
VA is 51/49 at the most in this scenario and probably 50.5/49.5 if not even closer than that. mccain has always polled well in VA but hillary is surprisingly strong in VA right now. that along with the recent democratic tide here makes VA a virtual 50/50 deat heat which could go either way.
it all depends upon turnout. if turnout is higher in northern virginia and the hampton roads area the democrats will flip it. if turnout is higher in more socially conservative southwestern, southside, and central VA republicans will keep it in their column. VA is very tough to analyze in this particular race.
again bayh will help us dems here. not as much as in let's say IN, OH, or KY but enough to flip VA dem.
ohio ohio ohio - the "biggest prize" of them all.
a 50/50 dead heat. what else could it possibly be? 50.5/49.5 if not closer. again it all depends on turnout. if turnout is higher in northeastern ohio and the city of cleveland democrats will flip it. if it's higher in more socially conservative southern ohio, and cincinnati and its suburbs it will remain republican. actually the city of columbus which is 50/50 normally but which is now experiencing a pro-democratic tide - reagan actually carried the columbus area quite easily - just like most other major US cities right now. in this case columbus will be a major battleground that could very well determine who wins the whole presidential race, and i'm not joking!
i still say ohio ohio ohio will remain democratic not necessarily because of hillary's strengths but the republicans' unpopularity in OH OH OH at the present time. bush's approval rate according to the latest surveyUSA poll is at 29 percent and his disapproval rating is at 69 percent. i still think OH OH OH will be 51/49 at the very most for either side.
and evan bayh most definitely helps us dems in OH OH OH.
this is a very difficult election to analyze. i think if mccain gets a stronger VP candidate than huckabee he could even win the whole darn thing.
it's most definitely this time:
wait and see as always!!!!!
Version: 46
obama(IL)/bayh(IN)
vs.
mccain(AZ)/huckabee(AR)
i still think we democrats win due to the results from the IA and NH primaries, with a higher turnout than the republican turnout. but it will be much much closer against mccain than against any other republican pres. candidate.
western states:
i am switching things around this time and going with the western states first.
i think obama vs. mccain would cause NV, CO, NM, and OR to be 50/50 dead heats. either candidate could win them. i gave mccain more republican NV and CO and obama more democratic NM and OR. but any combination of these 4 states is possible.
i placed AZ as lean Rep but this state could have a "nasty surprise" for home state candidate mccain. i think AZ has to be potential of being a tossup simply because mccain isn't that popular there right now.
great plains states:
a complete wash for both candidates. no change at all here for either side.
great lakes and upper midwest, and missouri:
i think obama does really well here but mccain is popular here too and makes them closer than they should be. IA looks great for the Dems along with MN and MI.
mccain makes WI a virtual 50/50 dead heat that could go either way as WI likes both obama and mccain. i have it staying Dem but it too could go Rep.
MO is once again a 50/50 state. right now obama is doing surprisingly well there mostly because MO borders IL obama's home state. i wouldn't be surprised if MO stays republican because of the social conservatives. the racial situation in MO is very very weak but still could swing enough voters to keep MO Republican. i still think as of now obama wins it, but it's far from a sure thing.
deep south:
a complete sweep for mccain. only AR is close but huckabee probably should solidify it.
florida:
florida too is a 50/50 dead heat. however it is the most likely of the tossup rep states to stay that way mostly because of mccain's popularity down there.
northeast:
obama should sweep it except perhaps for NH and possibly but not likely PA because mccain is liked and respected there in the northeast. i was probably premature in placing PA as a tossup. CT and ME are closer because of mccain. NH is a 50/50 dead heat because of mccain and his strength there.
the upper south, indiana, and ohio.
mccain should make all of these states 50/50 dead heats at worst. but due to yesterday's high democratic turnout obama probably wins OH OH OH because of the republican party's unpopularity and major disapproval there, at least at the present time. IN likes mccain too and still votes rep even with bayh on the dem ticket even though it's still a tossup especially with bayh on the dem ticket. TN and NC are now lean Rep instead of tossups. KY and WV both stay republican but still could be 50/50 dead heats. VA is a 50/50 dead heat as well and i don't see either side winning by a margin greater than 1 percent: 50.5/49.5. right now i give VA to the Dems only because of the strong Dem trend there and because of popular dems mark warner, tim kaine, and jim webb.
actually i now think this is the best republican scenario imho and the least favorable for us dems even with mccain as the nominee. i use the heavy democratic turnout in IA and NH to base that on. we dems are looking great in IA and NH looks good for us too even though mccain makes it close in NH.
50/50 states:
oregon
arizona (have it as lean rep but probably too negative there)
nevada
colorado
new mexico
iowa (have it as lean dem but still could get closer)
missouri
wisconsin
pennsylvania (too negative there on our chances imho)
maine (the more conservative district may be 50/50)
florida
arkansas (lean rep only because of huckabee but could get closer)
indiana
kentucky
west virginia
virginia
new hampshire
tennessee (could still become 50/50)
north carolina (could still become 50/50)
ohio ohio ohio (i was probably too negative)
wait and see as always!
Version: 44
new updated obama vs. huckabee map with obama taking OH OH OH by a 51.5/48.5 margin due to bush's approval/disapproval ratings at 29/69 in the buckeye state.
i kept everything else the same.
no VP candidate mentioned yet.
i just decided to put michigan as strong instead of lean democratic as well.
i will mention a VP candidate on my next map:
obama/sen. evan bayh of indiana for the democrats
vs.
huckabee/mccain for the republicans
wait and see as always!
Version: 43
my next map:
the generic obama vs. huckabee map
no VP candidate mentioned
i think obama would choose a moderate southern or midwestern white male such as bayh of IN, easley of NC, or braesden of TN. i think obama by himself could carry the west even though schweitzer of MT would help him if he chooses the western strategy.
i think huckabee would choose a VP candidate anywhere except from his home region the south
northeast:
a complete sweep for the Democrats. only PA and NH and the more conservative ME district are even lean dem. a very weak region for huckabee.
upper south:
more than likely good news for huckabee. i left KY, VA, and WV as tossups but might be overly optimistic especially about KY but mostly because i feel KY and WV will vote the same way. TN and NC are now lean rep instead of tossups. WV is probably the best bet for obama to pick off a state but WV would love huckabee too. i say WV goes 50.3/49.7 in favor of huckabee as a very small amount of obama detractors keep WV in the republican column. the same is even more true in VA and KY. 50.3/49.7 in VA and 50.8/49.2 in KY.
indiana:
obama does surprisingly well there and makes it closer than most folks think. still there are more than enough "southern sympathizers in the southern parts of the state to keep it republican.
missouri:
the toughest state for me to analyze. i think obama and huckabee are probably loved here and for the most part cancel each other out. i think the african-american turnout in kansas city and st. louis will be much higher than average. MO is 50/50 and I can actually see MO as the state that decides the whole thing if this race becomes closer. i might be overly optimistic in giving us dems the state especially with huckabee being loved especially in southern MO by evangelicals.
florida:
i think obama could possibly but not likely make the margin closer here but not nearly enough to flip it dem because the cuban-american vote will cancel at least 95 percent of that out if not more. also the pensacola-jacksonville vote goes heavily in favor of huckabee thus keeping the state in the republican column.
deep south:
huckabee should make a clean sweep here. i had AR as lean republican only because of himself. and obama would do weaker here than either clinton or edwards.
upper midwest and great lakes:
a larger than average obama victory. obama makes MN close to a lock and helps us dems solidify IA, WI, and MI in our favor. IL breaks the 60 percent level. huckabee is not very popular here either and won't play very well here imho.
great plains states:
no effect either way here. i have OK as lean rep but i could be overestimating our chances there even then. with neighboring AR to the east huckabee's home state OK remains in the republican column.
the west coast and rocky mountain states:
obama probably is stronger here than either hillary or edwards hillary especially. he should most definitely put western swing states NM, NV, CO, and OR in our column and makes the margin closer in MT especially if schweitzer is the VP candidate and makes AZ a 50/50 tossup with a slight republican advantage. huckabee is also very weak here helping obama that much more. obama also locks up WA for us dems.
ohio ohio ohio:
i think OH will stay republican due to the socially conservative southern part of the state. i do think obama will do well in the rust belt northeastern part of ohio and in the cities of cleveland and columbus. however the more socially southern part of the state votes heavily in favor in huckabee, making the margin in OH OH OH 50.6/49.4 in favor of huckabee.
wait and see as always.
Version: 42
my updated edwards vs. mccain map with the two changes i mentioned on my last map.
wait and see as always....
Version: 41
My next map:
Democratic:
J. Edwards(NC)
vs.
J. McCain(AZ)
These are considered to be the two most "electable" candidates on both sides. I thought McCain was as good as done but I was wrong. I thought that independents would have bolted him for pandering to the Religious Right. It did hurt McCain for a while but surprisingly and disappointingly to me the independents - at least 80 percent of them - have apparently decided to "forgive and forget" and decided to give McCain, who flipped-flopped when he pandered to the late Jerry Falwell and the Religious Right, a 2nd chance. McCain still is very popular among independents and is winning back their support. I still wouldn't be surprised if pulled this nomination off, mainly because the Republican socially conservative base is split now between Romney and Huckabee with Huckabee having the advantage now simply because Romney is a Mormon.
John Edwards still does well among independent voters too, which still is a surprise. Well sort of. Edwards connects with middle and low income families due to his fiscal policies.
I have a ton of tossups on this map. I honestly don't know who would win this election. I have VA as the deciding state winning the whole chebang for us Democrats, but McCain is still doing well there, and he would probably carry VA by a 50.4/49.6 advantage even against neighboring Edwards.
I'm very concerned about McCain's strength in the Blue States.
In the Northeast for the 1st time in a while I now have a Republican carrying a state, in this case NH. I'm hoping and praying McCain's support for the Iraq occupation will cost him NH, because otherwise I think he carries the state. I think he steals an electoral vote from us in ME and puts CONNECTICUT CONNECTICUT CONNECTICUT, NJ, and PA in play PA especially. I'm very concerned that McCain could flip PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA because he does the best there of any Republican in the polls right now, at least from what I've observed.
VT is even closer IMHO.
And McCain sadly is very strong in my neck of the woods the Upper South as well, so much so I have Edwards losing his home state of NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA NORTH CAROLINA. McCain does better in IN, KY, WV and sadly the biggest prize of them all OH OH OH better than any Republican right now. I have us all as tossups because Edwards is well-liked here as well. These are all 50/50 states in this matchup. McCain doesn't do quite as well in TENNESSEE TENNESSEE TENNESSEE but still carries it by a whisker.
I have no idea as to whom TN and NC will vote for in this scenario. 51.5/48.5 either way at the very most.
WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA WEST VIRGINIA is a 50/50 dead heat and KENTUCKY KENTUCKY KENTUCKY is 50.5/49.5 for McCain. Both Edwards and McCain are loved in WV and KY. Sadly I have to give both to the Republicans right now because of McCain's high approval rating in both states.
INDIANA INDIANA INDIANA is the same with a slightly higher Republican margin. I say 51.9/48.1 .
The Deep South sadly goes for McCain but that is actually one of McCain's weakest regions believe it or not. The Upper South generally supports McCain better than the Deep South. Odd but true. ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ARKANSAS is a 50/50 dead heat in this instance and I give Edwards the slightest of advantages here because McCain is not as strong in AR as he is the rest of the Deep South. I think AR is 50/5/49.5 either way at the very most.
FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA sadly remains Republican in this instance and probably by a larger margin as McCain is loved in many parts of the Sunshine State. But not enough to move FL out of the tossup category just yet.
MISSOURI MISSOURI MISSOURI is another 50/50 dead heat. Once again Edwards and McCain are very popular there. I have MO as Republican but only by the hair of its chinny-chin-chin. I see a 50.1/49.9 result there, and I'm not joking!
McCain also scares me to death in the Upper Midwest including normally Democratic MICHIGAN MICHIGAN MICHIGAN! The Reagan Democrats who for the most part have left the Republican Party still love McCain for the most part. Edwards carries MI by only a 51.5/48.5 at best. My estimation is 50.6/49.4.
MN another solidly Democratic state is much tighter. WISCONSIN WISCONSIN WISCONSIN is a 50/50 state and once again I gave us Dems the benefit of the doubt there but realistically McCain has a great shot of flipping it.
IOWA IOWA IOWA is 50/50 too. But the Dem tide is greater in IA than WI right now. You would think exactly the opposite since WI is more socially liberal than IA. IA and WI both go 50/5/49.5 if not closer.
The Plains States remain exactly the same. No change one way or the other.
NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA , COLORADO COLORADO COLORADO , and NEW MEXICO NEW MEXICO NEW MEXICO also are 50/50 dead heats that could go either way. McCain surprisingly is rather weak here in his home region just like he is in the normally Deep South.
I think NV and CO support McCain and sadly probably NM too. I think the margins in those key states are 51/49 at best.
AZ McCain's home state is surprisingly just lean Rep instead of solid Rep. McCain's popularity in AZ is not as great as you normally think it would be.
WA is closer because of McCain but still Democratic enough to remain our column.
CA is solidly Democratic even with neighboring McCain. McCain isn't as popular as you would think he be in neighboring AZ either.
OREGON OREGON OREGON is now almost a 50/50 dead heat because of westerner McCain but probably stays Dem. 51.2/48.8 is the margin IMHO.
VA is now the state that probably decides it all along.
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA is now the key state of the election along with OHIO OHIO OHIO of course. Edwards and McCain both are loved in VA and OH. At most VA and OH go 50.5/49.5 either way. Sadly I think OHIO OHIO OHIO goes for McCain by 50.2/49.8.
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA on the other hand goes for neighboring Edwards by 50.4/49.6. But I am sadly probably too optimistic on our chances there even with Edwards as loved in VA as he is. VA loves McCain too, and while VA is still trending Dem I don't know if it's enough to stop McCain or not.
Key 50/50 battleground states. There are a ton of them in this scenario.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
MAINE
CONNECTICUT
PENNSYLVANIA
WEST VIRGINIA
VIRGINIA
KENTUCKY
TENNESSEE
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO
INDIANA - It's probably realistically lean Rep but I'm thinking positive
FLORIDA
ARKANSAS
MISSOURI
IOWA
WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN
NEW MEXICO
COLORADO
NEVADA
OREGON
I'll probably have to edit my analysis lol.
This is probably the toughest race I've had to analyze. Anything is possible in an EDWARDS vs. MCCAIN race. Really you need a VP candidate to more accurately forecast it.
I have Louisiana as a tossup when it should be lean Republican. Sorry about that.
WAIT. AND. SEE. AS. ALWAYS.
Version: 40
My 1984 map and my opinion of what would happened if Gary Hart had been the Democratic nominee instead of Walter Mondale.
I have Colorado Democratic only because it is Gary Hart's home state. But at the time Colorado was much more Republican than it is now.
I don't think the South would have been as solidly Republican as it is now. I could be 100 percent wrong though.
I'll have to check on what the electoral college results would have been back then....
I am alone once again it seems. I do think Hart would have given Reagan a run for his money, but you all didn't agree, which actually I expected once again.
Just like I am about Indiana and maybe even Arizona going Democratic in 2008 except for wingindy and krustytheklown.
Speaking of you wingindy, you were a little hard on me. I didn't expect that out of you.
So now I'm giving you guys what you believe, the updated Reagan vs. Hart map, which to me is the absolute best case Reagan/Hart scenario for the Republicans.
I sincerely and respectfully disagree with you all about this, but I'm often alone on here which is not surprising. More people disagree with me than agree with me both in real life and online as well, but I'm already used to it by now lol.
And yes wingindy "We shall Wait and See as Always."
Actually wingindy I would have loved to have gone back in time just like Sam Beckett on Quantum Leap did. Maybe Sam and his sidekick Al could have helped changed the results of this election and most definitely the world itself with a shocking and stunning Democratic victory....
Actually I know you and most Democrats here would agree with me 100 percent lol.
and righted all of Reagan's wrongs and made this world a better and safer place lol.
I have a question for you, mostly for my fellow Democrats.
Do you all think Ronald Reagan is the most overrated president in the history of the United States? I most certainly do lol.
Reagan really took "corporate welfare" to a new level IMHO.
Sad but true.
And what do the Republicans on here, ConservRep especially think about a possible Quantum Leap moment?
"Turn back the clock" is my new motto along with "Wait and See as Always" and "Pick your poison" now lol.
Version: 38
My new map:
Democrats:
H. Clinton(NY)/Joe Manchin(current gov. of W. Virginia)
vs.
Republicans
M. Huckabee(AR)/M. Bloomberg(NY)
Sadly my original analysis got cut off for some strange reason. I changed KY and LA and it got cut off.
Basically Manchin helps us almost lock up WV, VA, PA, and OH and probably KY too. He makes TN, NC, and IN tossups.
NJ, CT, ME, and NH are closer because of Bloomberg and Bloomberg alone.
He sways just enough voters in 50/50 MO and AR to flip them Democratic.
He makes IA lean instead of tossup Dem. He makes the margin closer in GA, SC, and LA.
No impact at all positive or negative in 50/50 FL, thus it remains tossup Rep.
There is no change either way in FL as well the Great Lakes states MI, MN, and 50/50 WI.
The Great Plains' States remain the same with a very slight closer margin in OK.
The West remains the same in margin and results both in the Rocky Mountains and on the West Coast.
And the best news of all for us Democrats is that he helps us makes OHIO OHIO OHIO more solidly in our favor this time around.
Gov. Manchin is pro-life too, helping us in socially conservative OH, MO, AR, IN, and the Upper South WV, VA, and KY especially.
He doesn't influence very many voters just 1 to 2 percent at most but that's all you need in a 50/50 country. It should be 55/45 or greater but sadly it's not.
Right now I'd give us Dems a 53/47 lead nationwide.
Wait.And.See.As.Always.
Version: 37
My new map. One of my more negative maps in a while.
This is the generic Clinton vs. Huckabee map, with no VP candidates for either side on this edition of the map.
In my next two maps I plan to place a VP candidate for both sides depending on your selections, then I'll make a Huckabee/Obama map based on the same results.
This is loosely based on the election results of yesterday, which did not go as well as we Dems needed them to go IMHO.
IN, TN, and NC now are lean Reps instead of tossups. I still think these states could even turn Dem, but I'm not as positive as I was before.
KY, WV and VA are all tossup Republican. Sad but true. I think VA has the better chance of going Democratic than my home state of WV and KY though. I think KY and WV will vote for the same candidate though Rep or Dem.
PA should remain Dem but just by a whisker.
Ditto for NH.
AR will be a very interesting state to watch and could even end up the state that decides it all believe it or not! I am shocked that Huckabee has actually overcome Hillary in the polls out there. Sadly I have to give the slight edge there to Huckabee right now. It seems that AR is not as pro-Hillary or anti-Huckabee there now as it was just a month ago. Sad but true.
Florida is HUGE. A 50/50 dead heat with sadly a small Republican advantage. It's not trending as Dem as most swing states.
WI and IA are 50/50. I gave Dems s tossup advantage. I think Hillary does better in IA than in WI, at least for now.
MO could go either way. But bordering AR's Huckabee should be enough to keep it Republican.
Ditto for the biggest prize of them all OH OH OH. Sad but true.
MN and MI are closer now.
NV and CO are Republican with Hillary on the ticket. But unlike the majority of people both here on this site and in real life I still think she has a shot there, or then again possibly a lean Rep the other way. Right now I'm staying positive but probably overly so.
NM is a tossup too but this time on our Dem side.
Ditto for OR.
AZ will be lean Rep but still more than enough to solidly elect Huckabee.
MA and RI go 60 percent for Hillary.
ID, UT, WY, and AK go 60 percent for Huckabee.
A tiny Republican win. Sad but true.
Key tossup swing states in likely order to go Dem:
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Iowa
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arkansas
OHIO OHIO OHIO
Virginia
Missouri
Florida
West Virginia
Nevada
Colorado
Kentucky
Wait And See As Always. Especially in this instance.
As ConservRep always says let all the votes be counted, especially in this instance, hopefully not like 2000 or 2004 though.....
Sadly it looks like the Red State/Blue Divide is still very much in evidence, just like 2000 and 2004.
Sad but true.
Everybody on here Democratic, Republican, and Independent friend or foe please pray that my home state West Virginia doesn't get flooded out, as well as my neighbors in Kentucky and Virginia. Very heavy rain is expected here until at least Sunday. And we've already had a lot of rain here this week. I've been flooded out before and believe me it's no fun....
Version: 36
My new map:
Democrats:
B. Obama(IL)/P. Braesden(TN) current gov. of TN
vs.
Republicans:
M. Huckabee(AR)/M. Bloomberg(NY)
I think Obama holds on to all the Kerry states and wins Bush states WV, IA, NV, CO, and NM.
I think Obama sweeps Huckabee in the Northeast big time. The only states possible for Huckabee to even be competitive in are PA and NH, and even there we Dems should have a huge advantage over very conservative Huckabee even with Bloomberg on the ticket.
As for the Upper South the news is not as good for us Dems. Obama loses just enough socially white conservative voters in KY, VA, TN, and NC to keep them states in the Rep column NC especially. But I still think Obama does have a chance here in these 4 states and should carry traditionally Democratic West Virginia. My good friend Crystal actually likes both Obama and Edwards very much, but right now Hillary Clinton is her no. 1 choice. But last time she seemed to favor Obama. My fellow W. Virginians love all three candidates and I do think WV is a rare state that can support all of them.
Right now Clinton, Edwards, Obama is the order WV Dems favor if the Dem primary were held today.
TN is only in play due to popular governor Braesden. NC is lean Republican in this instance but I can see it as a tossup too because NC does have a strong Dem base and the state is trending Democratic right now, but not enough for an African-American candidate to carry it. Ditto for TN except tossup Rep instead of lean only because of Braesden.
I think it's an absolute must that Obama find a more conservative but still moderate one white male preferably from the South but maybe the Midwest too. I think Obama is strong enough in the western swing states of CO, NV, NM, and OR and in the Midwestern states of MN, MI, and 50/50 states IA and WI to carry them regardless of whom the VP pick is.
The Deep South as expected is solidly Rep with the possible exception of AR and the probable exception of normally 50/50 FL. Obama still loses FL because Cuban Americans in general are less acceptive of African-American candidates and in the more socially conservative Republican Northern part of Florida the Jacksonville-Pensacola area Obama will lose more than enough voters to cost him the state.
The wildcard in FL will be the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Democratic part of the state to see if they are more open to voting for Obama. I do say "yes" but sadly not enough to cancel out No. Florida and the Cuban-American voters.
And Huckabee should carry AR more handily than any other Republican opponent of Obama would. AR just like WV though could still vote for Obama if he faced let's say Rudy G or Mitt Romney. But Huckabee carries AR rather handily in this scenario.
The Great Lakes and Upper Midwest though look very great for Obama. Even normally 50/50 IA and WI should be at least lean instead of tossup Dem. Obama is very popular in the Great Lakes' states right now. And socially conservative Huckabee won't help the Rep's cause there either.
Indiana usually votes more like a Southern state than a Midwestern one. However Obama is more popular up there than you think he would be and is from neighboring Illinois so he still could take it especially if heavily populated African-American voters in the city of Gary turn out in huge numbers.
MO is a dead heat even with Obama. I think Obama will benefit from a high turnout in heavily African-American cities Kansas City and St. Louis but will lose just enough socially conservative white voters there to cause MO to stay Republican. But Obama surprisingly is more popular there than I thought he'd be, and being from neighboring IL won't hurt his chances there.
Obama crosses the 60 percent mark in his home state Democratic Illinois.
The solid Republican Great Plains' States stays solidly Republican. But they are more open to voting for an African-American candidate than the South is IMHO. But Obama's positive effect here is still minimal at best.
Obama however should flip the western swing states Nevada, Colorado, and especially New Mexico all Democratic, and by a surprisingly larger than average margin. He also keeps Oregon as close to safe in the Dem column as you can possible get without it being a total lock. I also envision him making normally solidly Republican AZ a tossup and making MT closer than it is usually is. He will do much better than Hillary does here that's for sure.
NO change at all in Alaska and Hawaii as expected.
OHIO OHIO OHIO will sway just enough voters in socially conservative OH to keep it Republican. But I do sincerely and respectfully disagree with my friend doniki80 that it's probably out of reach. Still I do agree with him that Ohio is socially conservative enough to keep it Rep. The wildcard here is the Northeastern OH "Rust Belt" fiscally liberal and pro-union economically depressed cities in the extreme Northeastern part of the state. I think most white voters here will still vote for Obama just like any other Democratic candidate. Voter turnout here in cities like Cleveland and Youngstown are critical towards the success or lack thereof that Obama has here in OHIO OHIO OHIO. And Obama will need the African-American voters in the cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, and the afore-mentioned Cleveland too. And those cities have had problems with "voter fraud" here in the past.
But popular Dem governor Strickland and the Democratic Sec. of State there have done a fantastic job there recently in keep "voter fraud" and "voter caging" there to a bare minimun. And doniki80 also informed me that under Ohio state law the percentage of poll workers there are determined by what happens there in the last general election, thus the last election in 2006. I do agree with doniki80 though that the anti-Obama impact in OH will be just enough to swing Ohio in the Republicans' favor. Sad but true.
But we Dems still win the whole darn thing because of Rocky Mountain swing states Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico and less Democratic but still very much so Oregon. I don't care if we Dems carry them with Obama or carry Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Indiana with Clinton.
Another case of:
Pick your Poison Democrats.
Barack Obama in the West or Hillary Clinton in the Upper South?
Wait and See as Always.
Version: 35
My latest map:
Democrats:
H. Clinton(NY)/E. Bayh(IN)
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani(NY)/Arnold S(CA) current governor of California
I have a lot of uncertainty and undecidedness myself about how well Arnold "the Terminator" would do in this election. Really according to my map it would all come down to Arnold's home state of California believe it or not! Flip CA's 55 electoral votes to Rudy's side and the Republicans win in this scenario if everything else on map is correct, which it probably isn't.
Thank God that Arnold is not a native-born American. He would scare me to death either VP or Pres. nominee.
Really Arnold is to the left of Rudy G believe it or not especially on fiscal policy. Rudy is very neo-conservative on fiscal policy but Arnold is much more moderate on fiscal issues, even supporting higher taxes at times on all different classes of people.
Rudy G and Arnold have the exact same socially liberal views. But Arnold at least is not as hypocritical in family affairs that Rudy is and has a much more stable family life.
Rudy/Arnold to me is exactly what Clinton/Gore was in the 90s. Two people from quite a similar background: socially liberal states with almost the exact same political views.
Only Clinton and Gore had 100 percent the exact same political views and came from almost the same region of the country....
While Rudy G and Arnold differ a tad on domestic policy and Rudy is from the Northeast and Arnold is from the West Coast. Other than that a 100 percent Republican version of Clinton/Gore.
But I know 100 percent that this is the least favorite Republican ticket of the James Dobsons and Pat Robertsons of the world. But Robertson did endorse Giuliani and actually from I've observed in the past actually has had nice words to say about Arnold in the past. Dobson however has not been quite as congenial to either candidate Rudy especially.
I've split this race up in regions.
NORTHEAST
Arnold can really help Rudy big time up here in the most Democratic region in the country. He won't sway many more votes but enough to potentially flip NH, ME, and PA and make tossups of NJ and CT. NY goes for Hillary but by the least margin of any potential Republican ticket I've covered so far. MD and DE "Northern sympathizer" Upper South states aren't even solid anymore but more than Democratic enough to keep them that way even though MD and DE would now be much tougher for us Dems than we originally thought they'd be.
I think Arnold does support the Iraq War but is not a big fan of the way it's been handled militarily. So maybe if he's more pro-Iraq War like I think he my projections on some of the Northeastern states would be too optimistic for the Republicans, and that wouldn't bother me one single iota!
THE UPPER SOUTH:
By far Rudy G and Arnold S worst region. KY, WV, VA, TN, and NC now almost but not quite become Dem locks the Virginias especially. KY, NC, and TN will probably join the Virginias too. I might be too optimistic on those three states but I don't think so, at least for now.
THE DEEP SOUTH:
This is the area I had the most trouble predicting. I still think the Deep South remains solidly Republican but Rudy G and Arnold S will give the Republicans more headaches there than they want to have. I can even envision LA, GA, and SC as tossups now believe it or not and possibly even MS and AL. AR is now very solidly in Hillary's camp. FL however is the only state in the region where I think the two tickets cancel each other out, but I am 50/50 on Florida now. It is a dead heat in this scenario no question about it. I could have even put it as Dem in this scenario. I've left at as Republican for the time being as right now Florida is not trending as Dem as most of the swing states right now.
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES:
Rudy G and Arnold S will give us Democrats most definitely a run for our money in these states. MN and MI are no sure things for us Democrats anymore but we are Democratic enough to still carry them. IA is just like FL: a dead heat that could easily swing either way.
I have good news however on OHIO OHIO OHIO, MO, and IN. Bayh helps us Dems carry normally OHIO OHIO OHIO and MO by larger than tossup margins and his home state of IN as well. Even if Hillary had another VP candidate we Dems should carry MO and OH by a larger margin against a 100 percent socially liberal ticket. IN would probably stay Republican though without Bayh on the ticket.
THE GREAT PLAINS STATES:
Normally solidly Republican OK now a tossup? Could it possibly be? Right now the Republican Party there is at its weakest in years according to recent polls. I still think it goes Republican but only by the very slimmest of margins. The other Great Plains' states remain Republican but not by a large margin and for the very first time there are no solid Republican states IMHO. The Plains' States are very socially conservative and a 100 percent liberal Republican ticket is not their cup of tea to say the least.
I guess TX is technically in the Deep South but I always list it as a Plains' State. But really it's both to be perfectly honest with you.
THE WEST:
Hillary is struggling right now in the West and this is actually probably this Republicans' ticket's strongest region believe it or not. Arnold is the only Republican candidate besides Ron Paul that can help the Reps flip WA and OR Republican OR especially. I think Westerners would definitely love a fiscally conservative socially liberal ticket like Rudy/Arnold. NV and CO are more solidly Republican than ever NV especially. AZ is now a Republican lock for the very first time. NM is even slightly Republican as well and only Richardson could help us Dems carry it IMHO. The Arnold effect outside of California is greatest in NV, AZ, OR and WA in that order. WA is now exactly like IA and FL: a 50/50 dead heat.
Now it's no longer OHIO OHIO OHIO....
For the very first time it's CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA that decides it all. And it's Arnold's home state believe it or not
Is CA just like Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania - I didn't originally put it as a complete 50/50 dead heat but I think it is as well - and Washington now? A complete 50/50 dead heat? Almost but not quite. Right now the Hispanic population out there doesn't care too much for Arnold because of his immigration policies. And while Arnold is loved and praised by Americans outside of California the Western ones especially Californians are a tad more negative on him Hispanics especially. But even the slightest shift in Arnold's favor could sway just enough voters to carry CA to flip a Democratic lock with any other candidate Republican. But thank God I think as of now California is Democratic enough to keep it in our column despite the fact it's Arnold's home state. And the Hispanic population will help keep CA in our column, even though in this scenario it's far from a 100 percent sure thing.
However CA could actually flip Republican if Arnold were on the top of the ticket. But since he's not a native-born American that will never happen thank God.
Arnold has absolutely no effect on AK and HI, even though the winning margin for him in Alaska would be slightly higher. Hawaii is the one western Democratic state that remains a lock for us Dems no matter what. It would take a popular Hawaii Republican to even make HI a tossup, and that's just not happening right now.
Wait. And. See. As. Always.
Version: 34
Democrats:
H. Clinton(NY)/E. Bayh(IN)
Republicans:
M. Huckabee(AR)/M. Bloomberg(NY)
Similar to Clinton/Richardson map - with following changes:
IN, KY, WV, VA, MO now tossup Dem instead of tossup Rep. Yes I do think Bayh helps us Dems carry Missouri.
MN, MI now solid Dem instead of lean Dem
IA, WI, PA all lean Dem instead of tossup Dem
Switched PA to lean Dem because of anti-Huckabee vote there
Moved NM to lean Dem instead of solid Dem because of no Richardson on the ticket
Moved WA from lean Dem to solid Dem because of anti-Huckabee vote
Moved OR from tossup Dem to lean Dem again because of anti-Huckabee vote
Moved OHIO OHIO OHIO from tossup Dem to lean Dem because of bordering state candidate Bayh on the ticket
But according to doniki80 may have to adjust OH because of pro-Huckabee "southern sympathizer" socially conservative southern Ohio voters. I may have to readjust this in my later maps.
wait And see As always.
Version: 33
My newest map
Democrats:
H. Clinton(NY)/B. Richardson(NM)
vs.
M. Huckabee(AR)/Bloomberg(NY)
I now think the Democratic nomination is Hillary's to lose. But she is struggling more than I thought she would. Obama and Edwards are still hanging in there pretty well Obama especially.
For the Republicans, I think that either Giuliani or Huckabee will now be the nominee. I say Huckabee right now because it seems that as of right now the social conservatives in the Republican Party are more power than the fiscal wing.
I actually think instead for Republican moderates instead of having Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee why not try out Michael Bloomberg the current NYC mayor instead? He is a pro-choice social liberal just like Rudy G without all the baggage and skeletons in the closet that Rudy G has. And he has been a much better mayor leadership wise than former mayor Giuliani ever was.
A Huckabee/Bloomberg ticket scares me to death. Both have more charisma than either Giuliani, Romney, McCain, or Thompson.
Huckabee needs to explain his role in the Wayne Dumond case though before we know whether he has what it take to be the Republican nominee for president though.
The Northeast is much more in doubt with Bloomberg on the ticket. If Bloomberg were on the top of the ticket I'd be afraid that we Dems could lose PA and most definitely NH. I still think the we Democrats sweep the Northeast almost exclusively to the very solid opposition to the Iraq War there.
The Upper South where I live on the other hand would probably see Huckabee doing very well no matter the VP candidate. Still even with Huckabee WV, VA, KY, NC, and TN are far from a lock for either side Dem or Rep. But then again I'm only 50/50 on that. But Huckabee would probably do better here than any other Republican candidate, maybe so much so I could have put TN and NC and perhaps KY and the Virginias my home state WV esp. as lean Rep. However I still think VA is a tossup and 50/50 all the way but Huckabee would still probably win it by the slimmest or margins.
Huckabee would probably do better than any other Rep in "Southern sympathizer" Indiana too. Still I still think Indiana will be much closer and up in doubt than most of my fellow posters think it will be even with Huckabee on the Rep ticket.
In the Deep South Huckabee sweeps it clean instead of Arkansas where he shockingly is behind Hillary Clinton big time there and is not as popular in AR than I thought he would be. Arkansas surprisingly give him low marks on some of his leadership qualities mostly because of him allegely destroying records when he left officed and the above-mentioned Wayne Dumond case.
Iowa and Wisconsin will vote Dem in this scenario and maybe I was too generous toward Huckabee especially in socially liberal Wisconsin. Iowa also looks good right now for us Dems.
Minnesota and Michigan would be closer but still in our column, and I was probably too generous to Huckabee there.
Missouri is 50/50 as usual. Huckabee in neighboring AR to the South swings just enough voters in MO to give it to the Republicans. And Huckabee seems to actually be more popular in MO than his home state of AR believe it or not!
The Plains States remain solidly Republican except Oklahoma. Oklahoma surprisingly is trending somewhat Democratic right now. I think popular Dem Governor Brad Henry is having something to do with it. I don't think OK is a tossup quite yet despite what some posters say it is. But I would love for them to be right and me wrong!
The western swing states are interesting in this scenario. According to previous feedback I left Nevada and Colorado Republican even though before I said Richardson would help us Dems flip those states. But I concede that with him on the VP nominee and not the Pres. nom. he might not flip them. But then again he could receive just enough voters especially Hispanics there to help us carry them. I'm 50/50 to his ability to that.
And I still think AZ will be closer than what most posters here think it will be. Richardson makes AZ more interesting but still the solid Republican base there will save Huckabee there even though Southern evangelicals like Huckabee are generally not very popular in the Western States.
OR and WA are more interesting now as Hillary Clinton is struggling in both states and surprisingly struggling in usually dependably Democratic Washington right now. Oregon is really a question mark. I could have even marked it as Republican believe it or not. I do think we Dems carry both states though Washington especially. But they are still closer than what they should be IMHO.
Florida is 50/50 but fellow Hispanic Richardson is not as popular among Cuban Americans as he is other Hispanics. FL is 50/50 but recent trends there are only very slightly Democratic, and sadly not enough IMHO to flip it Republican.
As for OHIO OHIO OHIO Huckabee will come closer to carrying it IMHO than any other Republican candidate except besides John McCain. I think OHIO OHIO OHIO is us Democrats to lose. We are in good shape there right now but I still thought that we Dems would be in much better shape there than we currently are, and this worries me a tad especially if Huckabee or McCain were the Republican nominees.
It's interesting that McCain is still ahead of all Dem candidates - yes every single one of them - in OH, KY, WV, VA, TN, NC, and IN. I actually think McCain would carry Ohio if he were the Republican nominee and probably the only one instead of perhaps Huckabee to keep it Rep. But that's for another map. I actually did a former map on this.
I'm still surprised that many moderate independent voters still support McCain even after his pandering to the Religious Right. But that only seems to be the case in the Upper South and "Southern sympathizer" states Ohio and Indiana. Elsewhere McCain is not doing nearly as well. I guess it's because of our strong military tradition with McCain a decorated Vietnam vet.
Wait and see as always.
Version: 32
Gore(TN)/Richardson(NM)
vs.
Giuliani(NY)/Huckabee(AR)
updated map
changed Upper South: KY, WV, VA, TN, NC all to tossup Dem instead of lean
switched IN from tossup Dem to tossup Rep
switched MI from strong Dem to lean Dem
left everything else alone.
I'll probably make a new map Friday....
Version: 30
My new map about the Democratic ticket which IMHO is the ticket most capable of winning against any Republican ticket in 2008 and the most logical one for us Democrats to choose.
Democrats:
John Edwards(NC)/Bill Richardson(NM)
vs.
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani(NY)/Mike Huckabee(AR)
The Democratic ticket I have listed here is probably our best bet to win it all in 2008. This ticket right now is the most logical one IMHO to carry swing states that were red in 2004.
Our traditionally strong section of the country the Northeast would actually be somewhat weakened by this ticket simply because of Rudy G's presence. Still I think we Dems will sweep the Northeast but Rudy G makes states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, and most definitely New Hampshire a lot more interesting. Still as long as the Republicans strongly favor the Iraq War winning any Northeastern state besides PA and NH virtually impossible, with New Hampshire being the toughest state to carry for us Dems.
The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes' states are also weakened too but just like the Northeast we should carry them even though the margin is much closer. Wisconsin and Iowa are still 50/50 in this scenario.
But other than those two areas of the country which are already Democratic-leaning already the Edwards/Richardson ticket is most definitely our best ticket right now in the Upper South swing states of my home area Kentucky and the two Virginias and also Tennessee and Edwards' home state of North Carolina. And also in the Western States both Pacific Coast and in the Rocky Mountain swing states of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and yes even Arizona. I forgot to place Montana as just lean Dem instead of solid which I think it will be with Richardson on the ticket.
Edwards helps us Dems in the South the Upper South especially and Richardson helps us in the whole west as a whole except of course for Republican locks Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.
Richardson will help us Democrats more than most VP candidates. There has been a debate on here about VP candidates and their effects on the election. I have to concede that my fellow posters are probably right and me bluemcdowell probably wrong as I have probably overestimated VP's effect on the election. Example Bush/Quayle in 1988.
Actually I think Bush Sr. might have even been re-elected believe it or not in 1992 if very unpopular VP Quayle had not been on the ticket. That was a very rare case of the VP candidate hurting an incumbent president. But hurt Bush Sr. it most certainly did, and I think Quayle was the biggest reason Bush Sr. lost his bid for re-election in 1992, or very close to it.
However I think Bill Richardson like Quayle is the exception, except this time in a positive way. He will make New Mexico a virtual lock for us Dems and help Edwards carry western swing states Colorado and Nevada by rather safe margins and makes Arizona a 50/50 proposition and I think we will carry it by the slimmest of margins because of enhanced Hispanic turnout. He also locks up California, which probably doesn't even need locking up in the 1st place, and Washington state and almost guarantees Oregon for us too by not quite a lock just yet.
The Plains States as always remains solidly Republican but I made Oklahoma just lean instead of solid Rep because of feedback here and in the polls as well, even though Huckabee in bordering Arkansas probably makes it solid Rep now that I've thought about it more. I could have done the same thing for Texas as well.
With no Hillary on the ticket and with Huckabee as Rep VP choice Arkansas is back in the Republican column but only because of Huckabee because any other VP candidate probably puts Arkansas in our Dem's column even though only by a whisker.
Missouri is Republican only because of bordering Huckabee. Again just like Arkansas any other VP candidate and I think MO flips Dem in this case.
The Deep South remains Republican but South Carolina and Georgia are now leans instead of solids SC especially. Mississippi and Alabama are only solid instead of lean Rep because of Huckabee.
The Upper South and "Southern sympthazier" state Indiana now look very promising for us Democrats. Edwards helps us Dems flip every Upper South state: Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. And Indiana is now a tossup even most posters as expected besides perhaps krusty and me would probably have it as at least lean Rep.
Florida is most likely ours in this scenario, even though unlike other Hispanics Richardson's positive effects are not as strong among Cuban Americans. I think Edwards and Richardson's positive effects are just enough in this battleground state to flip FL Democratic but by not as big a margin as us Dems would like it to be.
And Edwards' positive impact in the "biggest prize of them all" OHIO OHIO OHIO easily dwarfs his negative impact. Edwards almost makes OHIO OHIO OHIO a Democratic lock.
Wait And See As Always.
Version: 29
my updated
Obama/Edwards
vs.
Giuliani/Huckabee
map
due to feedback from posters here.
change Ohio from lean Dem to tossup Rep - I still personally think Obama will carry the state but by not as much but I heard what you're saying.
and Florida from Democratic to Republican - even though I still personally feel Obama can carry the state, even though cnbpjb you're 100 percent correct now that I've thought about it more that Hispanics and African-Americans have had their differences in the past.
I also changed West Virginia from Republican to Democratic. I do think West Virginians will accept and vote for an African-American for president. My experiences here in W. Virginia are that African-Americans and white Caucasians do get along well here for the most part especially in the mostly Democratic counties.
I also moved Indiana from tossup Rep to lean Rep because it's more socically conservative than Ohio.
Do you agree with doniki80 and cnbpjb or me bluemcdowell or any of us at all?
Wait and see as Always.
Version: 28
I've decided to forgo the Hillary Clinton maps right now. Hillary is struggling somewhat now. Whether or not that affects her status as the Democratic nominee remains to be seen. I still think she is the favorite though.
I still have Rudy G as the Republican frontrunner but even that is questionsble right now as more info comes out about his shady dealings with big corporations and his personal life as well.
Romney and Huckabee Romney especially is surprising me right now. Huckabee still has that Wayne Dumond case to deal with and Romney his Mormonism but that could be very well be the Republican ticket. It seems that McCain and Thompson are starting to surprisingly fade out again and are starting their slow decline to oblivion. But like everybody on here says you never know in politics.
My next map:
Barack Obama(Illinois)/John Edwards(North Carolina)
Democrats
vs.
Rudy Giuliani(New York)/Mike Huckabee(Arkansas)
IMHO Obama has to pick either a Southern or Midwestern white person preferably male to seal the deal. If he chooses a Northeastern liberal he will lose 50/50 states such as Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon....
and the biggest prize of them all OHIO OHIO OHIO.
He picks a Southern or Midwestern moderate white person preferably male like I think he will and I think the election is his to lose.
I'm hoping I'm 100 percent wrong but I still don't think the Southern states are willing to vote for an African-American presidential candidate just yet. I do think that now a majority of Southern whites are open to it, but at least 30 percent of them are not and they are more than enough to keep the Solid South Republican once again.
Arkansas without Hillary on the ticket is at least lean Rep, even though still as not solid as the rest of the South.
Obama's race will hurt him just enough IMHO in the Upper Southern states of KY, WV, VA, TN, and NC and the "Southern sympathizer" Midwestern state of Indiana to cause him to lose those states, but only by a whisker, and I still think my home state of West Virginia definitely could vote for him and less so Kentucky, the "other" Virginia, and Indiana could too, Indiana especially being a neighboring state of Obama's.
I think Obama's positive effect will be just enough to flip Missouri Dem, even though there are pockets of conservative Missouri that will still vote against him just because of his race but not that much but still could be enough to flip MO Rep even though I don't think so. With Missouri being a neighboring state of Obama's I think he'll carry it 50.3/49.7 and I think the African-Americans from St. Louis and Kansas City will have record voter participation and will more than dwarf the number of conservative whites who vote against an African-American.
I do think Florida will vote for Obama though. I think Florida is the exception rather the rule as far as Obama's negative impact is concerned. In upper Florida Jacksonville-Pensacola it will hurt him some but like Missouri the minority vote will be more than enough to flip Florida Democratic and south of Jacksonville I think Obama will do very weil and even make inroads on the critical Cuban-American vote down there.
Obama most definitely do very well in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwestern states and most definitely solidifies all of them and makes winning 50/50 Wisconsin and Iowa much more likely. IMHO I think Obama's race won't be an issue at all except for the most ultra-conservative of voters. Not enough to make a significant difference though as the pro-Obama voters there will definitely be motivated like never before.
Obama does just fantastic in the Northeast and sweeps it rather handily. Key swing states New Hampshire and Pennsylvania become much more winnable even with Northeastern Rudy G on the ticket.
No difference at all in the Solidly Republican Plains states. I maybe should have make Oklahoma lean instead of solid Rep though.
Obama like expected does very well in the all-important western swing states where racism is not as prevalent except once again for the most ultra-conservative of voters. I think he flips Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and maybe even Arizona too and I might not have been positive enough on Obama's strength out there. California and now Washington are locks for us Dems and Oregon almost is even though not quite so.
As far as OHIO OHIO OHIO is that actually was by far my toughest state to determine. Yes I think the southern Ohio socially conservative white voters will definitely vote against him but I think the racial impact is 50/50 in OHIO OHIO OHIO so I think so I left Ohio in our column even though the racial impact there is a tad higher there than in most of their fellow Midwestern states except for Indiana where it is most likely higher. But once again the African-American turnout will be much more than enough IMHO to flip the all-important biggest prize of them all OHIO OHIO OHIO to put it joyfully in the Democratic column.
Wait. And. See. As. Usual.
What do you think?
Version: 27
My next map.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton(NY)/NC governor Mike Easley(NC)
vs.
Republican
Rudy Giuliani(NY)/Mike Huckabee(AR)
There are a few changes on this map than the last one.
The Upper South: Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee along with "Southern sympathizer" state Indiana all become tossups thanks to popular Dem North Carolina governor Easley on the ticket. All are 50/50 in this scenario with each of them flipping Dem instead of more solidly Republican Indiana.
I did waffle on Kentucky and Tennessee. I did flip them Democratic but Huckabee may help keep them in the Republican column and only he and possibly Thompson would do so.
Florida as expected remains a tossup with a slight Republican advantage, even though Easley could make it very interesting. However since the "Southern effect" there is not as great as in the rest of the Deep South Republicans carry it by the slimmest of margins.
South Carolina's margin is closer due to Easley and Easley alone. The rest of the Deep South remains solidly Republican. Easley and Huckabee cancel themselves out there.
I thought of making Georgia a lean Rep instead of solid but decided against it since GA is one of the very few states trending Republican right now.
No significant change as expected in Arkansas.
As for the Northeast I left Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as tossups instead of lean Dem only because of fellow Northeasterner Rudy G. I place Connecticut and New Jersey as solid again even though I now realized I probably messed up by doing so. Still they are all at least lean Democratic in this instance. Still I think all the Northeastern states will stay Democratic unless things in the country improve significantly in 2008.
The Midwestern states as expected feel shunned by both parties, and there is very little if any shift here. The Great Lakes states all remain Democratic and Missouri Republican with Iowa and Wisconsin both tossups with a slight Democratic edge.
Ditto for the Southwest. With Clinton on the ticket Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona remain Republican. Oregon is a tossup with a slight Dem edge due to recent polls showing Hillary increasing her lead there by about a 1 to 2 point advantage.
The Plains States remain solid Republican. No change there.
Easley as expected keeps OHIO OHIO OHIO in our Dem's column. He has more positive impact in Ohio than negative. Thus the biggest prize of all remains in our Dems' column as for now.
Wait and See as usual.
Version: 26
My new map.
H. Clinton(NY)/B. Richardson(NM)
vs.
J. McCain(AZ)/M. Huckabee(AR)
Well for a while there McCain was starting to comeback but it seems during the last week his momentum has either slowed down or come to a complete halt.
doniki80 I still respectfully disagree with you and say B. Richardson is the Dem's VP choice as of now, even though I now think it's 50/50 between him and Evan Bayh(IN).
J. McCain has been more successful in the Northeastern states in the past than almost all of his Republican challengers including fellow Northeasterners Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. I think he is one of the few Republicans that can potentially steal a state or two from us Democrats, and that includes both Rudy G and Romney. His military background helps up there as well even though his 100 percent support of the Iraq War keeps him from taking more Northeastern states. Still I think he flips New Hampshire but by the very very slimmest of margins and takes 1 electoral vote from Maine's more conservative district. Pennsylania now is almost a virtual tossup with us Dems holding the slightest of advantages but McCain could easily take it as well. New Jersey and Connecticut meanwhile are still possible for McCain to win but not likely, even though he does make the margin there somewhat closer.
New Hampshire 50.5/49.5 McCain.
Pennsylvania 50.8/49.2 Clinton.
McCain also has always had success in my home state of West Virginia. Polls here have always given McCain the nod in Republican presidential primaries. And judging from my experiences with my fellow W. Virginians I think those polls are right. He keeps W. Virginia in the Republican column. McCain beats Clinton in my home state 51.1/48.9 .
He also has done well in the "other" Virginia too. I have the Democrats in front but by the very slimmest of margins. McCain could very well win Virginia, but Election Night 2007 was a good night in Virginia and with M. Warner and T. Kaine and the Northern Virginia impact McCain loses 50.2/49.8, and McCain could very well take it especially with Huckabee on the ticket helping him in the most Republican part of the state Lynchburg westward. And McCain has always done rather well in Northern Virginia as well. VA is most definitely a state to watch in this scenario.
The rest of the Upper South is not as nearly as strong for McCain. The whole South sans the Virginias has been a weak spot for McCain in the past. In fact I only have him doing this well in the South because of Huckabee. Kentucky's recent elections tell me that Republicans there have about a 2 to 4 point lead right now and McCain is weaker in Kentucky than in W. Virginia because it doesn't have quite the military tradition that W. Virginia has. But McCain has always struggled there. Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina are going to be tough for him but Huckabee gives him the slightest of edges in these three Upper South States.
I have the Deep South as solidly Republican but McCain could make it interesting here too in a negative way. Huckabee should solidify the Deep South for McCain and only because of Huckabee.
I think McCain is the only Republican that transfers Delaware from a strong Democratic state to a lean one instead. I think McCain has done well there in the past as well.
Florida is a state McCain has done fairly well in the past. He carries that state by a 51.2/48.8 margin.
Arkansas will probably go to Hillary Clinton but Huckabee makes it closer.
McCain is by far the best Republican candidate as far as the Midwest is concerned. He is the only current Republican candidate at the present time to have a shot at normally reliable Democratic Michigan. The few Reagan Democrats still remaining up there have always loved McCain. If McCain could somehow get his act together I'd definitely be worried about Michigan flipping Republican. And I'm not joking!
However we Dems won't be as fortunate in 50/50 Wisconsin. McCain wins over just enough independent voters there to carry the state 50.7/49.3 .
Indiana I put as lean Republican. McCain doesn't help the Republicans there but doesn't hurt them either. Indiana is 50/50 as far as the McCain effect there is concerned.
Iowa becomes closer because of McCain but right now we Dems have the momentum there. But once again McCain makes it interesting. Iowa is 50.9/49.1 .
McCain wins Missouri even though he has struggled somewhat there in the past. But Hillary Clinton has struggled even more there. And neighboring Arkansan Huckabee should help McCain carry it.
McCain and Hillary cancel each other out in the Plains States. No difference here. Republicans carry them by exactly the same amount.
The West is most definitely the wildcard in this scenario. You think McCain would have a big advantage out there especially with him being a Westerner and with Hillary struggling but that just doesn't seem to be the case right now. In fact I even think his home state Arizona will be tough for him to carry. Arizonans are increasingly negative on McCain right now. McCain will still carry Nevada and Colorado. Nevada 51/49 and Colorado 50.6/49.4 .
Arizona goes 51.2/48.8 McCain. McCain will struggle mightily here even with Clinton's weakness here and even though it's his home state. And Hispanic Richardson makes AZ just the more interesting.
New Mexico goes to Hillary but only because of Richardson, and still it's closer than most people think. 51.7/48.3 advantage Hillary.
The West Coast is even a question mark especially Washington and Oregon. McCain makes California a tad closer but not enough at least for now to change it from strong to lean Dem.
Washington the same, not enough from lean Dem to tossup.
Oregon is a dead heat this time. Hillary Clinton wins it but only by a whisker and only because of Richardson. Richardson sways just enough voters to carry it for Hillary 50.3/49.7 . But I can see Oregon in McCain's column as well.
As for the most important swing state of them all OHIO OHIO OHIO I have it down as lean Democratic but only because of the anti-Republican tide there right now and Tuesday's overwhelming Democratic victories there. But McCain is popular in Ohio and does scare the living daylights out of me there. And Hillary is not her strongest there and neither is Richardson and Huckabee will pull in a few more voters in conservative "Southern sympathizer" Ohio. Ohio could be much closer than what I have here.
Percentage wise I have Ohio 51.7/48.3 for Clinton.
Well what do you think? I think McCain hurt himself badly by quit being the supposedly "non-partisan Maverick" - Actually McCain is more much conservative both fiscally and socially than what the Mainstream Media gives him credit for - and pandering to now deceased Jerry Falwell and the Religious Right.
Wait. And. See. As. Always.
Version: 25
Democrats
Hillary Clinton(NY)/Evan Bayh(IN)
Republicans
Mike Huckabee(AR)/Rudy Giuliani(NY)
Really there isn't much change to my last map.
I'll probably switch Giuliani and Huckabee at a later time because that map would be much different than this one.
It looks like New Mexico and Oregon have come back to us Dem's side right now. I've moved Colorado and Nevada to the lean Republican side but not because of Huckabee and Giuliani but because of Hillary's weakness there even though I now think she might do better in the West than most of us on here believe. Just wait and see as far as that is concerned.
With no western candidate on either side Westerners will be pretty dismayed by both of these two tickets. Huckabee is way too socially conservative, Rudy G too pro-Iraq War, Clinton too pro-establishment - westerners don't care very much for inside-the-beltway candidates - and Bayh's geography even though his views are actually pretty similar to Westerners' opinions believe it or not.
Some westerners will stay at home but since most westerners are faithful voters especially in the Rocky Mountain States little or no change will be seen, but still in a 50/50 country that little 1 percent could sway the election one way or the other. You never know.
Bayh helps us Dems big time in the Midwest as you might expect. He solidifies the Great Lakes' states except for his home state of Indiana - and maybe it too - and locks up 50/50 Iowa and Wisconsin for us especially with no midwesterner on the Republican ticket....
And most importantly almost guarantees us the biggest prize of them all OHIO OHIO OHIO. Not quite a lock but only because of Huckabee's social conservatism in "southern sympathizer" southern Ohio.
I've flipped Indiana back to Republican on here but it's still at most a 51.5/48.5 Republican advantage in this scenario and probably not this much with native son Bayh on ticket.
Missouri goes Republican only because of neighboring Arkansan Huckabee. But only by at most a 51/49 margin.
I've moved my home states Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia back to tossups but only again because of socially conservative Huckabee. I still think all three of us go Dem with KY the biggest question mark and VA the most likely to go Dem and my home state WV in the middle between KY and VA.
Hillary Clinton also is doing better in Tennessee and North Carolina than I originally thought. Both of them are tossups with only a narrow Huckabee advantage. I think Hillary has a great shot at winning them unless either or both of the South's native sons Huckabee and Thompson are on the Republican ticket.
Florida is 50/50 right down the middle. It could go either way in this scenario. I could have very well put Florida as Democratic too. It's that close with this race.
Hillary is weaker in the Northeast than she should be and Rudy G makes it more interesting than I orginally thought it would be. I think it's probably because of her inconsistency on her position on the Iraq War and possibly on a military strike on Iran as well. Her ties to Blackwater also are hurting her somewhat up there as well. She's not as anti-Iraq War as most Northeasterners would like her to be.
But Huckabee would do just awful in the Northeast except for Rudy G. Now that I realize it I'm probably way too optimistic for the Republicans. Now a Giuliani/Huckabee race with the ticket flipped could cause us Dems problems in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine. But it would probably also flip Tennessee and North Carolina Dem as well as solidify Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia for us.
I have had a new saying here. Wait and See was and always will be my motto. But my new motto is "pick your poison." Western strategy or Southern strategy?
Iowa and Wisconsin vs. Tennessee and North Carolina?
Nevada and Colorado vs. Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia
Missouri, Florida, New Mexico, or
OHIO OHIO OHIO
Wait and See and now Pick Your Poison
My next map will be the generic John McCain map. McCain is doing very well right now in my home area the Virginias and Kentucky and is surprisingly starting to gain some ground on Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney right now.
W. Virginia favors McCain because of our strong military and veteran tradition here.
What do you think?
Version: 24
My newest map.
To keep the peace on here with my Republican friend ConservRep at least for a while I decided to wait until a later time to conduct my Huckabee/Giuliani map.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton(New York)/Evan Bayh(Indiana)
vs.
Rudy Giuliani(New York)/Fred Thompson(Tennessee)
Hillary Clinton still is her weakest in the western states IMHO. I flipped New Mexico Republican but still as a tossup with no Bill Richardson on the ticket.
Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon are Republican but still very winnable if Hillary Clinton campaigns well out there. Washington state is still Democratic but just barely but it again depends on how well she campaigns out there.
The Plains States are solidly Republican as ever and even slightly more so since Hillary is weak there just like in the West.
Bayh helps us Dems big time in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and the Upper South. To me helps us more than a Southern candidate because Southern Democratic candidates only do well as a rule in the South and nowhere else.
The Deep South is still solidly Republican and even more with Thompson as the VP candidate.
Arkansas is solid Democratic territory now with no Huckabee on the Republican ticket.
And Bayh is one of very few VP candidates who helps us Dems carry Missouri. I know I will hear from you ConservRep on that one and that you'll probably say that Thompson does better or even more so that Bayh and Thompson even themselves out. But most Missourians usually favor Midwesterners over Southerners generally. However I could be 100 percent wrong as usual.
The Upper South is solid Democratic territory with Bayh on the ticket. Thank God most of all that he solidifies the biggest prize of them all OHIO OHIO OHIO for us. That alone would be a good reason for Hillary to put Bayn as her VP running mate....
North Carolina I'm torn 50/50 on because I don't know what Thompson's effect will be down there. I might be overly optimistic on our Dems' chances there. I would love to be wrong though.
Indiana now comes into play with their hometown guy on the ticket. Bayh flips his home state of Indiana but only by the narrowest of margins.
Florida is still 50/50 but still slightly Republican. I think Bayh and Thompson along with Hillary and Giuliani cancel themselves out down there so no significant change IMHO.
The Northeast is closer but only because of hometown candidate Rudy G. He makes PA a tossup but actually I now realize that I might have been too pessimistic - spelling - on our chances up there. I still think we Dems sweep the Northeast clean but I still gave myself breathing room as far as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are concerned NH especially. Since Rudy G and Thompson are very pro-Iraq War the Northeast will still be a Democratic sweep INMO. Now an anti-war Republican might pick off some Northeastern states from us but I don't think pro-war Rudy G can do so except perhaps Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. I still think we carry PA and NH by about 2 to 4 points at least.
Well what do y'all think?
Wait And See As Usual.
Version: 23
I know some of you all will probably see this before I make some changes to it, but here's new map:
Clinton/Richardson
vs.
Huckabee/Bloomberg
This race is much closer than what it appears to on this map. A ton of states in every region of the country are virtually 50/50. This scenario if it would ever happen, but it's 99 percent likely that it won't, would be one in which the press would absolutely love.
The changes that I know you will notice are Oregon and Washington. Hillary Clinton is not doing very well in the West right now. I am 50/50 as to whether Richardson will help us Dems as much in the Pacific Northwest as he does in the Southwest. I am leaning "no" but that's far from a sure thing. There is a huge Hispanic vote in Washington and Oregon. Not quite as big as in the Southwest, say Arizona and New Mexico, but a significant one nonetheless.
I think Oregon as of now would go 50.2 Huckabee to 49.8 Clinton. And Washington would go 51 Clinton to 49 Huckabee. I know that Washington is a Democratic state but I am torn right down the middle as far as Hillary's chances there are right now. And the same is true for Oregon. It all would depend on the Hispanic turnout and how heavy it is out there.
Hillary is struggling in crucial western swing states Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada but Richardson and Richardson alone makes both CO and NV tossups and gives us a slight chance at Arizona too. And only Richardson solidifies New Mexico for us Dems. Any other VP candidate and I would have to give New Mexico to the Republicans.
Iowa and Wisconsin as usual are 50/50 states. Right now I place Iowa 50.8 Clinton to 49.2 Huckabee. Wisconsin is 50.4 Clinton to 49.6 Huckabee. But I might be too generous to the Republicans in Iowa as Hillary is leading there by a comfortable margin right now.
Again I know that most posters here will disagree with me on Indiana being this close. That's OK. I'm used to it by now.
Indiana is 50.6 Huckabee to 49.4 Clinton.
And on Kentucky too. Kentucky is a barn burner this time because Kentuckians love both Clinton and Huckabee...
50.1 Clinton to 49.9 Huckabee! And I'm not joking!
The two Virginias too...
West Virginia
50.3 Clinton to 49.7 Huckabee
Virginia
50.5 Clinton to 49.5 Huckabee
Clinton does lose Missouri 51.2 to 48.8 to Huckabee. Hillary will most likely not carry MO but could make it closer than the percentages I have here.
Huckabee makes Arkansas closer than any other Republican candidate but still loses 52.7 to 47.3 to Clinton if not more.
Tennessee and North Carolina could be close in this scenario but probably won't. Still I could be 100 percent wrong on these states, and most definitely want to be!
Florida as usual goes down to the wire: I really don't know who wins Florida in this scenario. I say Huckabee right now but by the slimmest of margins. 50.4 percent Huckabee to 49.6 percent Clinton.
Popular NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg will make the Northeast a lot more competitive than it should be, even more so than Rudy G. I know you will disagree with me strongly on that ConservRep but that's OK. Northeasterners are growing more negative on Rudy G and more positive on Bloomberg.
Pennsylvania I estimate is 50.7 Clinton to 49.3 Huckabee. Bloomberg makes PA a dead heat.
New Jersey is 51/49 in favor of Hillary Clinton. It's only that close because of Bloomberg.
Connecticut is 51.4 Clinton to 48.6 Huckabee. Again only because of Bloomberg.
New Hampshire 50.1 Clinton to 49.9 Huckabee! Yes that close!
Now as usual it's all up to OHIO OHIO OHIO.
I think I might be too negative on Ohio. But now that I think of it probably not. I think Hillary will struggle more in Ohio especially against a socially conservative fiscally liberal evangelical Republican candidate.
I say OHIO OHIO OHIO is
50.2 Clinton to 49.8 Huckabee.
Usually close races in Ohio favor Republicans. But not this time since a Democrat is now Secretary of State up there.
I want to know what you all think. I'm sure some of you have already seen this map and wonder what the heck is going on. I sincerely apologize to you that I did that.
Would be a very interesting race in real life if it ever happened. I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell of it doing so though....
Version: 22
First all thank everybody for praying for me. My family doctor said I was doing just fine. Thank you Lord!
I do eat too much meat though. I know my cholestoral - spelling - should be lower lol.
Sadly my mother and sister continue to try to ruin my life everyday. If it weren't for them and my current crush Crystal my life would be much much better since everything else is good for me right now.
I've decided to do this matchup first:
Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
vs.
Ron Paul/Michael Bloomberg
I already see some errors I've made, so bear with me until I get them all corrected.
I was going to do the Huckabee/Bloomberg matchup first but I most definitely feel this map will be much more interesting than that one.
I think that Ron Paul would sweep the West both Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast states except for California, New Mexico, and Democratic stronghold Hawaii. New Mexico is lean Democratic because of Bill Richardson and California is a tossup because of Paul's candidacy. No other Republican candidate has a prayer of carrying California right now but Paul. And even Paul has no shot at carrying solidly Democratic Hawaii.
And Paul would probably carry California with anyone else on the Dem ticket but Richardson due to the heavy Hispanic vote there. In this election I think California would probably be the deciding state as to who wins the whole chebang in this case.
Paul would sweep the West CA and NM included if it weren't for Richardson.
I think the western swing states Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona, Montana, and Colorado would be solidly in Paul's camp in this scenario. And just like California and New Mexico Paul is the only Rep candidate capable of carrying Washington state.
And Hillary is not doing very well in the West right now except for California and New Mexico. I most definitely hope that changes before Election Day 2008.
The Midwestern states from the Great Lakes westward look great for Paul too, possibly except for Democratic stronghold Illinois, Indiana, and the ultimate swing state OHIO OHIO OHIO.
Paul carries independent voter states that are slightly Democratic Minnesota, and Michigan as well as another key 50/50 Midwestern state Iowa.
Ohio is as always a key battleground. This scenario is no exception. I think Ohio and its neighboring usually solid Republican neighbor Indiana to the West Indiana wouldn't be as receptive to Ron Paul as the other Midwestern states. Indiana is 50/50 here in this instance.
I am also 50/50 on Missouri in this instance. I actually have to give the Democrats the advantage here believe it or not because I don't think Missourians support a libertarian candidate very much. ConservRep and jamespol you guys can really help me on this map.
But even solidly Democratic Illinois is not as solid with Ron Paul as the Rep nominee. He does much better than any other Rep there 100 percent certain. Still Illinois is more than Democratic enough to stave off Paul as well.
What troubles me about this map is that Paul's states are much more solid than Hillary's states. Sad but true.
In the Northeast independent voters will just absolutely love and adore am independent Republican anti-Iraq war candidate like Ron Paul. He flips Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut and even makes liberal New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont and possibly even Rhode Island interesting especially with NYC mayor Bloomberg on the ticket.
New York less so though with Hillary Clinton as the nominee.
Well I got the rest of my analysis cut off again for some reason. I don't know why....
The upper South states WV, VA, KY, TN, and NC wouldn't like a
libertarian like Paul much IMHO.
In the Deep South I think Paul takes Republican-trending GA and LA but that's it IMHO.
I think a very key state FL is 50/50 with a slight edge towards us Dems....
Key 50/50 battleground states:
California (only with Paul as the Rep nominee)
Indiana (possibly only with Paul as Rep nominee)
Missouri
Florida
OHIO OHIO OHIO as always.
I have other states as tossups as well but I do think they'd break heavily one way of the other. You guys' comments will most definitely help me with that....
I know that Paul won't win Rep nomination but this situation is still something to think about it.
ConservRep you say you love maps where the old Red State-Blue State divide is thrown out the window, and this map most definitely does that.
Version: 21
An interesting matchup that will never happen but would be interesting if it had ever did:
Democratic ticket
Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin/Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
Republican ticket
Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee/Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
The two most anti-Iraq War candidates opposing the favorite evangelical socially conservative Republican choices...
Well an all Southern ticket worked for us Democrats didn't it in the 90s? Why not a Southern ticket for the Republicans as well?
And how about an all-Midwestern ticket for us Democrats? An all Southern ticket worked for Clinton/Gore. The all-Midwestern ticket turns many slightly Democratic Midwestern states solidly in our Dems' direction.
We Democrats are much stronger in the West as you might expect.
The solid Republican South as expected votes for native sons Thompson and Huckabee.
Thompson and Huckabee give a slight advantage to the Republicans in my home area the Virginias and tilts Kentucky towards the Reps as expected.
Florida is 50/50 in this matchup. I put it as Republican but it could vote Democratic too
The anti-Iraq War Northeast as expected closes ranks behind Feingold and Kucinich.
But the Midwest wins this election for us Dems. Feingold and Kucinich win every Great Lakes state besides Indiana and even make it a 50/50 proposition.
If this Democratic ticket were ever elected and we Democrats win 60 votes in the Senate and a huge majority in the House most if not all our troops would probably come home within a year's time. Sigh....
I would love for this to happen. Sadly it never will.
My next two maps will be interesting as well:
Clinton/Richardson vs. Huckabee/Bloomberg Got the idea for that map just tonight.
And the next after that:
Clinton/Richardson vs. Paul/Bloomberg
Should be interesting dream choices that the main stream media would absolutely love but will never happen...
Version: 20
My next map:
Edwards/Richardson
vs.
Giuliani/Huckabee
This could very well the Democratic and Republican tickets in 2008. It all depends on whether or not the Democratic base turns on Hillary for her vote in Iraq.
I had a better analysis but since I needed to switch Ohio back Democratic I lost it.
Sad but true.
But great for us Democrats to pick up OHIO OHIO OHIO!
Version: 19
My realistic generic Hillary Clinton map scenario pre-Lieberman/Kyl
I am still very upset at Senator Clinton right now. She sold the American people out with her unexcusable vote.
My home area KY, WV, VA all virtural tossups with VA going to us Dems and KY and WV to the Reps.
Dem flips from 2004:
Arkansas
Iowa
New Mexico
Virginia
Sadly I now had to put OHIO OHIO OHIO in the Reps' column for the very first time. I hope you doniki80 am 100 percent and I bluemcdowell 100 percent wrong.
Key states:
Arkansas
Iowa - I do have it as lean Dem right now instead of a tossup
New Mexico - lean Dem
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Hampshire
Oregon
Nevada - lean Rep right now
Colorado - lean Rep right now
Missouri - lean Rep right now
Florida - lean Rep right now
OHIO OHIO OHIO - sadly right now put it in Rep column for the very first time in non-landslide maps
What do y'all think?
Version: 18
I love this map a lot better than the last one.
best case generic Hillary Clinton scenario
the states I struggled with most were my home the upper Southern states of WV, VA, KY, NC and TN where Hillary is doing surprisingly very well and the Rocky Mountain States where Hillary again surprisingly is struggling big time right now.
I am 50/50 to how well she'll do in the western states of Colorado and Nevada in this instance. I do think New Mexico while not a lock in this situation is very close to being one.
I would like on my my next map, my realistic Hillary map to place Colorado and Nevada in our the Dems' column but I don't think I can do it just yet.
Now for all the questions and comments....
Version: 17
worst case Hillary Clinton scenario generic map
I'll let you do all the commenting.
Sorry for the multiple maps. I messed up big time on the percentages so had to create a new one immediately.
I guess they already have. I don't see but one map on here thank God.
I messed again darn it. I meant to put MN and MI as lean Dem instead of strong.
Otherwise it's 100 percent on target. At least I think so.
Just noticed SD is lean instead of strong.
I might have to leave here for the night. I'm all shook up like the rest of you I guess.
Version: 16
Well I had to abandon my Clark/Warner map though I still might do it for fun in the future. That would have been an enormous landslide win for us Democrats. But neither of them are running: Mark Warner is running for US Senate to replace the current "Warner" in office and should be a virtual lock if he doesn't make a gaffe of historic proportions.
And Clark just endorsed Senator Clinton so at best he'll get is either a VP nomination or be our next Secretary of Defense at worst.
Instead it's this ticket I'm predicting right now.
Democratic: Hillary Clinton/Wesley Clark
Republican: Rudy Giuliani/Fred Thompson
I think the top is a very real possibility and Hillary is a vitrual shoo-in if she doesn't make a historic gaffe. And I think she's much too intelligent for that.
However I'm torn on the Republican ticket. From my observations it seems that socially conservative Republicans are supporting Rudy G more than I originally thought would. Rudy G would be wise to pick Mike Huckabee as his VP running mate - I still think Hillary is a lock to win Arkansas regardless - rather than Fred Thompson. It seems that Thompson has been doing better in the polls lately and that Rudy G is slipping just a tad. I just don't see Rudy G picking Huckabee because I think Rudy Giuliani wants a VP running mate that's more socially moderate than conservative amd one as fiscally liberal either.
We grossly underrate Rudy G's fiscally conservative policies because of the perception rightfully or wrongfully of his strength on foreign policy and national security but make no mistake about it to Giuliani it's very important - at least to him - that a running mate of his be at least fiscal conservative. I actually think fiscal policy is a bigger issue to him than national security. If not it's at least half and half, and Huckabee deservedly or not fails on both accounts.
It seems to me that Thompson is not doing as well in the South as I originally thought he would and that Hillary Clinton is doing much better than I thought she would in the South as well.
Notice there are a lot of tossups on this map. This country is divided 34/33/33 moderate/conservative/liberal and 50/50 on Republican/Democratic.
I still think Hillary will do well in the Upper Southern states Kentucky, Virginia, and my home state West Virginia according to recent polls. I even have her carrying my home state of West Virginia right now only because I've heard that they've done some polling on that here. I would like to know which specific ones since the last one I saw was on wikipedia and that's it.
However my local area of all three states is really 50/50 on all of them. Any Republican/Democratic combinations of my home territory are possible right now.
What I don't know is how well Thompson will do here in KY, VA, and WV. Right now it doesn't seem like he's caught on here than I thought I would. You would think he'd do at least good enough here to make it leans instead of tossups but that doesn't seem to be happening now thank God.
As for upper South states Tennessee and North Carolina I have them both Republican right now. I think right now that it's more likely for Republicans ot carry Tennessee than North Carolina. Tennessee is trending more Rep than North Carolina right now and home stater Thompson just manages to sway enough voters in his home state to put him over the top there. But Thompson is even struggling there right now. I think than more Tennesseans are seeing through his "acting job" right now. And he is not doing very well in North Carolina either.
Georgia and Louisiana are Republican locks right now. They both seem to be the Southern states most trending Rep right now. You think that would even be more so in Mississippi, South Carolina, and definitely Alabama right now but that is not the case for some reason.
And with Clark who is originally from Arkansas just like Hillary - I actually heard Clark still lives there - maybe that is helping Hillary in those three states.
Florida the second most important swing state besides Ohio is a state that I don't have a really good read on right now. It has been trending Republican recently but I don't know if the pro-Republican tide has already peaked there or not. And I think that Dems have started to gain ground there. I think Hillary might win there but at 51/49 percent at best. The Cuban Americans there will be huge down there for both parties.
And I even think Indiana is 50/50 right now. I once thought otherwise but it has been very much trending Dem lately. A lot of that is because of neighboring Kentucky to the South and the "Southern sympathizers" in southern Indiana voting more Democratic recently. And not just there, all of Indiana is trending Democratic right now. Indianans voted out three Republican House members in 2006 and the Dem tide there seems to be holding up remarkably well there right now. I still think Republicans will carry it but it will be much much closer than people think.
I have midwestern swing states Missouri going Rep and Iowa and Wisconsin going Dem. I think the trend in Missouri is stagnant there for both parties right now meaning Republicans have the edge.
As for Arkansas I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans started making it a closer race there than it is right now. But with the massive lead Hillary has there now I still we Dems have a great shot of taking it but I think the race there could very well tighten there soon.
The same is true for Wisconsin this time with Democrats having the very slight edge.
Iowa can go either way. It's 50/50 there right now.
As for Minnesota and Michigan it looks very good for us Dems but I still think I was perhaps too generous for us Dems. I really didn't notice them on my map so I might have to end up changing them. Right now I'm so tired I'll leave them both alone. Still I'd be shocked to see either MN or MI go Rep in 2008. So I'll leave them like they are at the present time.
As for South Dakota I think the Republicans win but not by as a big a margin as most people think they will.
I think Clark will definitely help us Dems in Oklahoma and Texas but not nearly enough to flip them Dem. I say about 54/46 Rep in OK and the same amount in Texas. The eastern parts of those states though could be interesting with both Hillary and Clark with AR connections on the ticket.
And thanks to my buddy huskersoon83 I still have Nebraska with 1 that one electoral vote going our way.
I am torn 50/50 on the Rocky Mountain swing states Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. I don't have a really good read on how Hillary Clinton will do out there. I do think she will carry New Mexico though because of Hispanics returning to their Democratic roots.
I am also torn 50/50 on Washington state and especially Oregon. I do think Washington is still Democratic enough for us Dems to carry it again.
However I am 50/50 as to how well she'll do in Oregon. Oregon should be in the bag for us Dems but I won't put Oregon as Dem with Hillary on the ticket unless I'm 100 percent certain. I am 80 percent certain rignt now. So I'll leave WA as lean Dem and Oregon as a tossup as for now.
I have Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, and New Hampshire as leans for us Dems but I'd be shocked if any Republicans win there. However a recent poll in New Hampshire has Hillary and Rudy G deadlocked there. We Dems lost New Hampshire in 2000 and thus the election. However Ralph Nader was the reason for that and I still would be shocked if any New Hampshire and any other Northeastern state voting Rep even with either Rudy G and/or Romney on the ticker.
As for the ultimate swing OHIO OHIO OHIO I still have good feelings about it but not nearly as much as before. It seems that Republicans are starting to gain a little ground there right now for some reason even with problems the state GOP is having there right there.. I say it's because of those socially conservative southern Ohio "Southern symphathizer" voters I always talk about when mentioning the Buckeye State. Right now southern Ohio the swing part of Ohio has Hillary with a slight edge rignt now. So I still think we Dems are in good shape there but sadly not as good as we should be.
Now I'll wait for your guys' comments. It's another classic case of "wait and see" as usual.
I wonder how well my good buddy and fellow W. Virginia sknowman14 is doing right now. I haven't heard from you sknowman14 recently. Of course it's been since Friday since I've been here so that might be the reason.
Version: 15
Democrats: Clinton-Edwards(?)
Republicans: Giuliani-Thompson(?)
I have a found a link that should make finding presidential polls a lot easier:
www.hedgehogreport.com
This site really makes finding polls a lot easier. When you need to back up or go forward a page all you do is click "previous 15 entries" or "next 15 entries" and it will go forward or backward to the next page.
What surprises me is that www.hedgehogreport.com seems to me to be a pro-Republican website but Democrats do very well on most of the polls there, but then again they tend to favor surveyUSA maps, which to me are pretty accurate most of the time, so I really don't know what to think of that
This updated electoral map is "loosely" based on this following link:
www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=938
I say "loosely" because I have some major concerns and probable disagreements with this map. Actually I believe 90 percent of it is right on target, but the part that's not I have serious questions and they are huge concerns.
I placed Edwards on the Dem ticket because I don't know if Hillary can do this well in the South without a Southerner on the ticket. But I even have questions about Edwards because he has struggled in his home area the South somewhat in the past. However I guess they believe Hillary can do well in the South without a Southerner on the ticket, which I sort of disagree with. I do think Mrs. Clinton is at least competitive in most of them, but I guess Edwards still has just enough support in the South to help her out big time. And in a 34-33-33 nation (moderate-conservative-liberal per jamespol) nation just a slight change is needed to make a huge difference in the electoral map.
I actually think Wesley Clark would do better than Edwards now that I have thought about it more. But he does come from Arkansas too and I don't think Hillary would choose him just for that reason. Two candidates with Arkansas connections wouldn't help us Dems much including in the Deep South.
I also have questions about the Republican ticket. I think Rudy Giuliani must balance the ticket in order to be competitive and even have a prayer of winning. I am also 34-33-33 as to whether it will be a Southerner, Westerner, or Midwesterner because he sure could use the help in all three regions in the country. I just placed Thompson on there because really right now he is the only major Republican to choose from unless there is another VP candidate I and the nation never have heard about before.
Except for rock solid Republican UT, ID, AK, and WY (commonly called Bushlandia) in the West and LA (yes Louisiana!) in the South I left all other Republican states as lean instead of strong. It seems that the anti-Bush and anti-Iraq war tide are stronger in the country that I even thought and definitely much stronger in the South than I could have ever imagined.
Yes the poll numbers have come up for Bush lately but that's only among conservative Republicans. Democrats and independents still disapprove of Bush just as much if not greater now than they ever have before.
I put Louisiana as strong Rep because of the displacement of New Orleans African-Americans due to Hurricane Katrina and the white conservatives' anger towards Gov. Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu whom to me is by far the most vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator right now. Actually I think she'll lose in 2008 and even help the Republican pres. candidate carry Louisians by the highest pro-Republican percentage outside of "Bushlandia."
Connecticut most definitely I have a big problem with. They say it will vote Republican because of the anti-Joe Lieberman sentiment there. I left CT as a tossup with a slight Republican edge right now but with every Republican candidate supporting the Iraq War as well will probably most likely to change it in the future.
Actually I do think they're right on about Kentucky and Virginia which even my supporters on here disagree with me most of the time. But I live in this area and believe me they hate Bush there in eastern KY and southwest Virginia.
Actually though for some reason the anti-Bush tide hasn't spread into West Virginia as well especially the Beckley, Bluefield, Princeton, Hinton, Lewisburg, and predominately rural Monroe County areas. I've visited these counties a few times in recent years and they actually still today are strong supporters of the Republican Party in 2007. In the coalfield counties McDowell, Mingo, Logan, and Boone Counties they hate Bush big time for the most except once again for my fellow evangelicals and Pentecostals who just will not be convinced that Republicans just use them for political gain and that's it.
My step-dad and mom are very very strong Pentecostals are Democrats but that is only because of their very outrageous health care bills and to a lesser extent opposition to the Iraq War. Not only that but almost all (and I mean EVERY DARN ONE OF THEM) their good friends are Republicans. If a fiscally liberal Republican candidate like Mike Huckabee comes along they will most definitely vote Republican 100 percent certain.
ConservRep you would love my mom and step-dad's viewpoints but not their personality They almost believe exactly the same things you do except on health care. And I'm not joking!!!! Sadly I don't get along with them very well and they have mistreated me in the past and exploited my mental condition. And you are a nice guy ConservRep and I know you would put our political differences aside in cases like this.
Also my fellow West Virginia friend sknowman14 still thinks the Republicans will carry West Virginia so in respect of him and our friendship and because he seems to know a little more about the state than I do I placed WV as Republican. But only a very slight edge. In fact I will probably leave my home state as a toss up whether Dem or Rep because I honestly don't know what's going to happen here in 2008.
doniki the only WV poll I've seen is on Wikipedia and it only has Clinton up 42-36. I'm sure more are out there though so I will try to find them for you as soon as possible.
Hillary Clinton for some reason is not doing too well in the Rocky Mountain States including swing states Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona but much better on the West Coast than I thought she was. RodB you were 100 percent correct about Oregon. She did struggle there for a short time but now is up by 10 points. I guess because the West Coast is more liberal than the Rocky Mountain States. But she still does very well in New Mexico and all polls do agree on that.
I also want to thank you once again RodB for supporting me and strongly urge you to stick with us. Heck even our friendly rival ConservRep still wants you here 100 percent certain!
And Hillary Clinton also seems to struggle more in the Northeast too. Huskersoon pointed that out to me. But these polls actually have Sen. Clinton in much better shape here and I tend to agree with them. Sorry huskersoon83 I have to agree to disagree with you on this.
On OHIO OHIO OHIO they have Sen. Clinton winning it but not by much. That also I agree with.
So really the bottom line is that so far thankfully the anti-Bush tide is still much better than the anti-Hillary tide for the most part. Yes I know the Republicans say Bush won't be on the ticket but to me that's very insignificant because the Republicans still support him big time on the Iraq War.
Another important thing I forgot to mention is that they have North Carolina split up by congressional districts. To me that is VERY IMPORTANT NEWS. Actually I did hear that North Carolina's state legislature wanted to do it but I didn't think they actually went through with it. I need everybody's input on North Carolina and whether they actually passed this. I don't think they did but I coulbe 100 percent wrong as usual....
And I did remember you huskersoon83 as well. Just check out Nebraska....
Whew I'm exhausted. Be back later to hear y'alls comments....
Version: 14
ConservRep, jamespol, and my friends on here, I admit that you were right and I was wrong. I have decided to throw out conventional wisdom and the typical blue state-red state divide out the window this time.
I've also decided not to do my 4-way presidential race scenario at the present time. I just don't know whom would be Ron Paul's VP running mate.
This is the Hillary Clinton generic map, meaning that she could face any Republican candidate in the presidential race. I've studied many political websites about her, and I was absolutely shocked at what I discovered. I know you all will think I'm crazy and off my rocker this time. But this scenario could actually happen believe it or not!
I still think Mike Huckabee will shock a lot of folks in the Rep presidential nomination. I think he'll absolutely crush Fred Thompson as the Rep. evangelical Christians' presidential choice once they get to know Huckabee well enough.
Forget about Huckabee and on to the Hillary Clinton generic map.
One thing that has absolutely shocked me is her performance and popularity in the Southern states. She is comfortably ahead in both Arkansas and my home state of West Virginia and actually has a comfortable lead in Kentucky and Virginia believe it or not.
www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/8/21/182858/824 is the article that points that out. In fact it even has Hillary beating Romney in the reddest of southern states Alabama.
I think Hillary's suprising much better than average performance in the South is due to her and one other person: her husband Bill Clinton. I thought that Bill Clinton would have absolutely little or no impact in this election especially in the Southern states but I was probably wrong. Southerners still like Bill Clinton down there apparently. You think that the heavy Southern white Rep. evangelical presence would doom Hillary there from the very beginning.
Heck John Edwards would seem to actually do much better in the South than Hillary ever would, but for some reason that has yet to happen and probably never will. He actually hurt Kerry in the South rather than help him. That alone makes Hillary's apparent strength down there even more shocking.
It has to be her husband. Gotta be. There is no other logical explanation for that phenomenon.
Hillary has just about locked up Arkansas and my home state of West Virginia. According to the above link she also leads comfortably in our neighbors Kentucky and Virginia. Still I have to actually see it to believe it especially in Kentucky. I made KY a tossup with a slight Dem advantage. I do give her at least a lean Dem advantage in the other Virginia though do to Northern Virginia and popular Dem. governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.
My fellow W. Virginia Dem friend sknowman14 I would really appreciate your take on how well you think Hillary Clinton will do here.
I even think normall solid Republican Indiana is in play for us Dems in 2008 believe it or not because of the heavy Southern symphathizing voters in the southern part of the state and because of Hillary's strength in neighboring Kentucky.
As for the Deep South, actually Louisiana is the most Republican state down there right now. Again I was surprised. I even thought after the displacement of African-Americans from New Orleans it would still be in play in a Dem landslide. But actually it is more Republican than ever right now. That surprises me somewhat too. I guess the white population there except for the few poor folks still reeling from Hurricane Katrina sadly seem to either not care about their fellow Louisianan African-Americans anymore or blame Dem. Gov. Blanco and NO mayor Ray Nagin instead. Also Sen. Mary Landrieu is one of the very few Democratic Senate incumbents actually predicted to lose there in 2008. Dems don't like her for being too conservative and Republicans have blamed her too for the Hurricane Katrina fiasco.....
I have placed the upper Southern states Tennessee and North Carolina as tossups with a slight Dem edge. I think that if KY, WV, and VA go Dem they will join them and support us Dems too.
I even place normally reliable Republican Oklahoma and Texas as lean Rep instead of strong this time because it borders Arkansas.
Missouri I give the edge to the Republicans simply because for some reason unknown to me the Arkansas' connection doesn't help Hillary as much there as it probably should. ConservRep and jamespol you guys could really help me on this one.
Florida I am absolutely torn 50/50 this time. I gave us Dems the advantage there but I may have been 100 wrong in jumping the gun on it. It all depends on whether or not the Elian Gonzales "scandal" is still important down there to Cuban Americans. Yes FL is trending very much Democratic right now but it's still very much a 50/50 tossup state. It would be very nice for us Dems carry Florida. I just don't know if we can do it or not though.
Hillary will sweep the Northeast as probably any Dem would likely do but believe it or not she is not as popular in the Northeast as much as you might think. I think her original vote against the Iraq War is hurting her a little up there but not enough at the present time to flip any Northeastern state Republican. However I made more socially conservative Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine lean Dem instead of strong but still feel the anti-Bush tide up there is enough to sweep the Northeastern states.
Actually the region I'm currently torn 50/50 on is the Midwestern states. I don't think Hillary will do as well there as either Edwards or especially Obama but I could be 100 percent wrong as usual. This is where I would really appreciate you guys' comments and opinions. I actually gave her Republican opponent the edge in Iowa and Mrs. Clinton herself the slight advantage in Wisconsin. Iowa is socially conservative and Wisconsin is more socially moderate. I haven't done as much research on the Midwest than I have in the South and the Northeast and would really appreciate your comments on this.
And I'm also torn 50/50 as to her strength - or apparent lack of it - in the West including the western swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. And there is a reason for that. I read on dailykos and BlueOregon that Mrs. Clinton is currently behind in the polls in Oregon. Yes Oregon was 50/50 in 2000 and about 52/48 in our Dems' favor there in 2004 but still I was absolutely shocked to see her behind 51 to 47 percent in the polls out there in Oregon, and Oregon has really been trending even more Democratic recently confusing me bluemcdowell even more. I would have predicted Oregon to be 53 to 55 in our Dems' favor but apparently I might be wrong and they might be wrong on this. Again I would greatly appreciate your comments on this.
I assume that if Sen. Clinton is doing poorly in Oregon she is most likely struggling in the whole West as well except for possibly California, Hawaii, and Washington state. I'm scared that if Hillary is struggling in Oregon she will have some trouble in Washington state too but I still think WA is Democratic enough to keep it in the fold even with its neighbor Oregon possibly going the other way. But it is probably lean Dem instead of strong.
As for California itself I made it strong Dem but might have to bring it down to lean Dem later. Again like Washington state and probably much more so California is Democratic enough to keep it in the fold right now so kept it strong Dem at the present time. We Dems MUST WIN CALIFORNIA or else lose the whole chebang. It's just as simple as that.
As for my favorite swing state OHIO OHIO OHIO sadly I had to put in the Republican column at least for now. Mrs. Clinton has a slight lead there right now but I think it will be 50/50 on election day there no matter who's her Republican opponent. If we can steal the South as shown on this map I think Ohio will join us Dems too again because of those "Southern symphathizers" in the swing part of Ohio the southern part of the state bordering Kentucky.
I know this map will receive a bunch of comments. At least I hope so. And also know that many people will feel like I'm off my rocker this time!
ConservRep and other Christians on here please pray for me bluemcdowell right now. I've been having family problems with my own mother believe it or not and sadly there was a bad episode at our church's revival where I lost my billfold in the pouring rain and because of my condition was panicking big time and mom told me to SHUT UP AND FIND YOUR BILLFOLD. I actually think she cares more about my billfold than my life. Please pray for me bluemcdowell about this. That is a major reason I haven't been on here as much lately....
Looking forward - I guess - to everybody's comments. Don't be too hard on me though....
Version: 13
My next map. Decided to forgo changing the generic Huckabee map due to a lack of time.
Republicans: Huckabee/Romney
Democrats: Clinton/Richardson
Changes from the generic Huckabee map:
Moved Minnesota and Michigan from strong Dem to lean because of Minnesota's social conservativism and Michigan is less hostile to Huckabee than other Rep candidates due to Huckabee's fiscal liberalism. And Romney does have a few Michigan connections....
Moved Northeastern states Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine from strong Dem to lean due the fact they are more socially conservative then than the rest of the Northeastern states. But since Huckabee is pro-Iraq War will probably have to switch them back to strong Dem. Also put them lean instead of strongly due to fellow Northeasterner Romney.
Flipped Iowa to Republican tossup due to Huckabee's social conservatism playing well in Iowa.
Moved my home states the Virginia's to both tossups. West Virginia Dem because Hillary Clinton is ahead in all the polls here and its Democratic tradition and kept Virginia Rep tossup only because of Huckabee's social conservatism helping them there.
Moved all western swing states to Dem and tossups with the exception of New Mexico due to Richardson on the ticket making NM a lock. Could have made Colorado and Nevada to lean Dem too again because of Richardson.
And Arkansas to lean Dem believe it or not despite Arkansas being Huckabee's home state strictly due to H. Clinton's popularity there. Also heard Clinton and Huckabee are arch rivals there due to old time politics....
But the most important swing state of all OHIO OHIO OHIO still Republican tossup because of Huckabee rallying the Republicans there especially in southern Ohio.....
I never thought I'd be able to finish this map. Whew I'm exhausted!
On a sad note I will hit Medicare Part D's donut hole in December. I wrote a special diary on Medicare Part D on...
www.wvablue.com
Please read it if you all have time. Very very sad...
Version: 12
My next map...
The generic Mike Huckabee map...
To me Mike Huckabee is most definitely the dark horse candidate of the Republican Party, and also the one that most definitely scares this loyal faithful and true Democrat to death.
Huckabee is a very a-typical Republican, not so much for his ultra-conservative social values even though they will solidify the Republican evangelical Christian base especially in the South and the Plains States.
It's his fiscally liberal economic policies, or so it seems right now....
Remember that Mr. Bush said the same thing though and looks what happened? The most ultra-conservative economically pro-privatization US President ever in United States history. And by far the most "corporate welfare" president this country has ever seen 100 percent certain.
I don't think Huckabee will be like that however. I think Huckabee is the real deal. But I could be 100 percent wrong just I often was before and still am the majority of the time today....
Notice the obvious lack of tossups and even lean states. Huckabee just like fellow eRepublican evangelical Thompson is a very polarizing figure but maybe not as much as I or anybody else might think, and I'll tell why. I might very well have to adjust this map possibly even several times lately because I don't know if his economic liberalism will attract moderate Democrats and independents and even a few very fiscally ultra-economic conservative Republicans as well.
I honestly don't know how Huckabee's tax hikes on the upper middle-class and the rich will play out in Middle America. Right now I think it's a complete 50/50 wash in both ways. We'll just have to wait and see as always.
Right now I'm saying the same thing about Huckabee that I did about Thompson in that he's very polarizing. But Thompson is very economically conservative. Huckabee on the other hand is at least an economic moderate if not liberal.
The fiscally conservative Republican base predictably doesn't care too much for Huckabee and big corporations will constantly attack him that's 100 percent sure.
But poor and middle class America will love a socially conservative fiscally Republican evangelical candidate like Mike Huckabee to death.
Apparently I don't think evangelical leaders James Dobson and Pat Robertson will support Huckabee. They actually should be the very ones supporting him and backing his campaign. Why not? It's perfectly simple....
Dobson and Robertson are not as big on "values Issues" like most people think they are and focua and support ultra-conservative "economic issues" instead. That's why I don't care too much about Dobson and Robertson. They actually focus more on economic issues a lot more than people think and not as much time on social issues again as most people think.
Back to the topic at hand:
Huckabee to me is a much better evangelical alternative than Thompson. He is a much better public speaker than Thompson. He has a much better sense of humor than Thomspon and all pres. candidates Democratic and Republican. He overcame obesity when no one else said he could do it. He always backs up his views with the facts. He never had personal problems with his family unlike Thompson. He beats Thompson every single way hands down, except for one potentially dangerous exception:
The Wayne DuMond case where Huckabee pardoned DuMond his Republican friend who would later murder 3 or 4 innocent people in cold blood. Time and space don't permit me to discuss why now but I will most definitely touch up on this critical Huckabee campaign issue later. It could potentially destroy Huckabee's political career. So far though it has had very little effect on the campaign trail....
Huckabee will lose every Northeastern state. I neglected to mention Huckabee and the Iraq War when I really shouldn't have because Iraq will most likely be the number one issue in 2008. I think Huckabee is pro-Iraqi War just like Rep. front runners Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson. If that's the case and I think that it is then he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of carrying even one Northeastern state Pennsylvania and New Hampshire included. However I now realize that both PA and NH are more socially conservative than the other Northeastern states so I might have to change this in my upcoming maps. Also I don't know how well Huckabee's liberal economic policies will play up there either.
In the South and the middle and lower Midwestern and the Plains states forget about it. Huckabee wins all of those states easily no matter how liberal his economic policies are. In fact he will win them by a much larger margin than any other Rep candidate simply for that reason alone.
But once again I think southern evangelical Huckabee will struggle somewhat in the 4 western swing states of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and probably Arizona as well.
Unlike before though when I said that Thompson would most likely lose Arizona I still give Huckabee a slight edge there.
As far as New Mexico goes it will be 50/50 as to whether Huckabee can be competitive there unless Bill Richardson is on the Democratic ticket like I think he will be. If Richardson is on Dem ticket forget about it. Huckabee will lose New Mexico and probably lose it big time.
In Nevada I give us Dems a lean advantage there. Huckabee's social conservatism won't fly out there IMHO. And Nevada is fiscally conservative for the most part too again making it disagree with Huckabee.
Colorado to me is a very critical state in this Huckabee map. It is more socially conservative than Nevada and more fiscally liberal as well which should help Huckabee some. But not enough to carry it though at least for now. Colorado is now a tossup with us Dems holding a very slight advantage. But I honestly am 50/50 on whether Colorado will vote for Huckabee or not.
As far as the Great Lakes states the advantage most definitely goes to us Dems. Wisconsin is now a Dem lean instead of a tossup but again because of Huckabee's unusual economic liberalism it could help him there instead of hurting him. Again another case where I might have to adjust this map.
Minnesota, Michigan will now be strong Dem again depending on how Huckabee's liberal economic policies play up there.
Iowa is slight Dem but to me it is 50/50. But I might have to switch it sadly to the Republicans. Iowans are economic liberals but are very conservative socially. I now realize that Huckabee could very well carry Iowa.
I want to get back to the Virginias. Huckabee should win my areas quite easily in normal years but 2008 is far from normal. Right now Democrats are ahead in West Virginia and in Virginia it's a virtual dead heat. But Huckabee will make them very very interesting and help Republicans big time there. W. Virginians and Virginians both absolutely love fiscally liberal and socially conservative candidates no matter if they're Democratic or Republican. So even though the Virginias look good for us Dems right now I think Huckabee sadly will steal away both of those states from us Dems. The only question now is if the Democratic tradition of both Virginias especially my homestate of West Virginia is strong enough for us to best Huckabee. Sadly I don't think it is. I would love to wrong though.
And forget about Missouri my fellow Dems. For the very 1st time I had to make it strong Republican. Huckabees plays even better there than in W. Virginia because Arkansas is a bordering state of Missouri's.
OHIO OHIO OHIO As much as I rant about all other states Ohio is still the biggest prize no matter who is on the ticket on both the Democratic and Republican side....
For the very first time I had to swallow my pride and sadly give Ohio to the Republicans for the very first time. Yes the Republican Party in Ohio is in big time trouble right now but once again Huckabee's fiscal liberalism and social conservatism will play great for the Republicans big time in the Buckeye State in all areas of the state and most importantly the swing part of the state southern Ohio.
Again we shall have to wait and see. I am more confused and undecided about Mike Huckabee than any other candidate Repubican or Democratic. I just hope his "compassionate convertism" is more sincere than Bush's was and that he doesn't sell out to big corporations like Bush did....
I actually write blogs and post comments for a West Virginia Democratic website called West Virginia Blue. The mods there are great friends of mine. www.wvablue.com It's a great site. I ask you all to visit it when you all have time to do so. You'll be glad you did. My username there is the exact same as it is here: bluemcdowell
Version: 11
My next map. Time to be serious again.
Democratic: Clinton-Richardson
Republican: Giuliani-Thompson
I have placed far more states as tossups more than on any of my former maps. Explanation coming up:
Every Western Mountain state except Republican locks Alaska, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho are in play except of course for New Mexico which I consider a Democratic lock because of Bill Richardson.
I think we Dems have a slight edge if not greater in Western swing states Nevada and Colorado. I might have to change them to lean Dem because of Richardson.
The same is true in Arizona except I gave Reps a slight edge there. However they love Richardson there too especially the Hispanic population.
So I think Richardson puts it in play. I would actually give Dems a slight edge in Arizona if Richardson were on the top of the ticket.
He won't though. Too many poor debate performances right now will most likely doom him for good.
Wisconsin and Iowa still in dead heats. Missouri and Arkansas lean Rep because of Thompson and Thompson alone. I still think Missouri may be a tossup in this scenario. I still think we overestimate Republican support there. ConservRep I know you'll disagree.
I have Minnesota as lean Dem but may have to put as strong instead because of the anger over the Twin Cities bridge collapse.
Michigan I probably messed up on and should be probably be strong Dem instead of lean.
The GOP has still not recovered in the ultimate swing state in the nation OHIO OHIO OHIO. I still like our Dems chances there even with Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket.
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, and New Hampshire I moved from strong Dem to lean Dem only because of fellow Northeasterner Giuliani. And even now I might have to move them back to strong Dem instead. It will be a longshot at best even for Rudy G to even take one Northeastern state despite his Northeastern heritage.
The states in this matchup I had the most trouble with was the South both upper and lower and as well as Southern-type Midwestern state Indiana. The only reason I didn't place most of them as even tossups is because of Thompson. Rudy Giuliani will have more trouble in the South than any other Republican nominee.
I mentioned on one of these maps I think I might be overestimating Thompson's support in the South. I hope that I am. That would be tremendous mews for us Dems. If anybody can see my "overestimating Thompson" comments I made before I'd gladly appreciate it because I don't know which map I said that but would still like to know what comments people made to me in response. I guess I lost track during my break from here.
I moved every upper Southern state except Thompson's home state of Tennessee to either lean Dem or tossups. Kentucky I put as lean Rep but it could either go to tossup or strong Rep. i really don't have a feel for KY one way of the other right now. The KY governor's race will determine how much support the GOP still has out there at the present time.
I placed KY, NC, and IN as all Rep leans. Indiana is the most likely of these states to continue to vote Republican.
As for my home territory the Virginias they are both tossups right now. I still give Reps a slight advantage again mostly because of Thompson. If anybody else were the VP nominee I'd actually favor us Dems right now. The last polls in both Virginias have Dems in front. Whether it will remain that way especially with Sen. Clinton as pres nominee is yet to be determined. Right now though it looks very promising for Dems here in the two Virginias.
I still think I'm overestimating Thompson's support so I need help especially from you huskersoon and the rest of my fellow Dems especially Smash and jamespol to back me up and prove I'm right.
Again it is way way too early to decide either party's nominee. Hillary Clinton is not even a shoo-in now because even she has struggled big time in the last two debates while Obama and Edwards have taken full advantage of it.
We'll just have to wait and see like always....
Version: 10
I've decided to get serious this time.
This to me is the most likely and logical presidential race to happen in 2008.
Democratic ticket: Hillary Clinton-Bill Richardson
Republican ticket: Fred Thompson-Mitt Romney
IMHO these two presidential candidates both Sen. Clinton and former Sen. Thompson are the two most polarizing candidates of either party. Sadly they are also the two most likely nominees because sadly the ultra-liberal base still runs the Democratic Party and the ultra-conservative base still runs the Republican Party.
Notice how very few states are in the tossup and lean category. In my honest opinion there will be fewer true swing states than ever before.
The red - blue on most other maps - states become redder than they ever have before and the blue - red on most other maps - states become bluer than ever before.
It is still possible especially for us Democrats to win in a landslide. In politics you never know what's going to happen. I still think even with Hillary Clinton as our nominee that a Dem landslide is more likely to happen than a Rep landslide. But it will be much tougher for her to win in the general election than either Obama or Edwards. Sad but true.
I do think that Hillary Clinton is by far the best and most qualified candidate for the job. She has won every Democratic debate rather handily so far. But two things could trip her up big time:
1. her sometimes waffling on the Iraq War. She actually voted to authorize it. But to her credit she has predictably explained herself as usual very well on why she did vote that way. As a politician she rarely if ever makes a self-desttucting race-changing gaffe. And that's not surprising at all. She learned from I think the best pure politician ever in her husband William Jefferson Clinton. And I think she is even better than him most of the time!
2. her negative image. To me this is by far the biggest and most important issue she and us Democrats will have to face in this election. We all know she's presidential material. We all know that she is the best politician out there. She is the most qualified candidate on the economy and she is the most qualified candidate on national security. And she is also the best speaker out there.
The two questions are now:
1. Is her negative image as widespread as the main stream media says it is particularly among conservative voters? To me I'm most definitely 50/50 on this issue. I just don't know. If I had to guess thank God I'd have to say NO. I think we Dems want this election so much this time that our turnout will be much higher the Reps that even a few extra anti-Hillary voters from the Southern evangelical Republican base won't affect us. The West especially is so anti-Southern Republican evangelical right now that Thompson would probably not be able to deliver western swing states Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico - now a Dem lock with Richardson even at the bottom of the ticket - no matter who's the Dem nominee including Senator Clinton. And now even Arizona is a tossup because of that anti-Southern Republican evangelical bias out there. But sadly it will still be much tougher for her to win there than either Obama or Edwards even at that.
and now the 2nd most important question...
2. Can she overcome that negative image and actually obtain more independent votes especially in those key western swing states. Thank God I think the answer is a RESOUNDING YES! The South won't vote for her no matter what and probably the important swing state of Missouri either, but the anti-Hillary bias is not nearly as bad in the West as it is in the other parts of the country. She was going to lose the South and the Plains states anyway and she was going to sweep the Northeastern states anyway - even though Romney would make New Hampshire and Maine a little more interesting. And as intelligent politically as she is she will not forget the West like John Kerry and Al Gore did. And neither will she forget my home state Democratic W. Virginia either.
Any other Dem candidate would not be able overcome that IMHO. But Hillary Clinton is not your ordinary politician. She learned from arguably the very best pure politician ever to win the White House in US history: William Jefferson Clinton. And I even think she is much more savvy politics-wise than even him! That's really saying something.
Really this race boils down to Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, and the most important swing state of them all THE BUCKEYE STATE OF OHIO! I think New Hampshire, possibly Maine, and possibly my home state of West Virginia could shock some folks but it's not likely. The reason I placed normally reliable Republilcan Arizona on the swing-state list is 99 percent because of Thompson. I think any other Republican pres. nominee would be favored big time in Arizona. Not Thompson though because Arizonans like the rest of the Western Swing States absolutely HATE Southern Republican evangelicals.
Really though as always it comes down to OHIO OHIO OHIO! Right now the Republicans are in big trouble politically there. I realize now I might have made a huge mistake which is now too late to fix in placing Ohio in the lean Dem category. Yes Ohio would most definitely be lean Dem if not strong Dem if Obama or Edwards were the Dem nominee. But Hillary is not as well-liked and respected by those crucial southern Ohio "Southern sympathizer" voters - mentioned them on another map - as Obama and Edwards would be. So sadly I might have to change Ohio to a tossup where Dems have the advantage. And not only is Hillary Clinton not well-liked there but Fred Thompson does connect with many of those southern Ohio voters more than Romney, Rudy G, or McCain.
Still with all that I give Sen. Clinton the advantage in the Buckeye State and lean Dem - at least for now. But that's only because the Republicans are less popular in Ohio than they have been before because Democrats there feel Ohio's former Republican secretary of state Ken Blackwell rigged the 2004 presidential election in Bush' favor.
THIS IS BY THE FAR THE MOST CLASSIC CASE OF WAIT AND SEE FOREVER!
Version: 9
Sorry I've been away so long.
Ah, this was most definitely my dream ticket. The generic Mark Warner-Bill Richardson map. This ticket probably would have won no matter whom the GOP pres. nominees were.
Sadly it will never happen because Gov. Warner has completely ruled it out this year. We Dems can dream can't we? Actually Warner could be the Dems presidential candidate in 2016 - hoping that the next Dem president is elected in 2008 and then re-elected in 2012....
It's as balanced as a ticket can be too. Warner is the best Democratic governor the state of Virginia ever had. His economic policies there were second to none. He always governed from the center no matter the issue. He was even sort of popular with the Republican evangelicals there and was very competitive even in the most Republican conservative regions of Virginia: southwestern VA, southside VA, and the Shenandoah - spelling? - Valley. All the while shoring up the mostly Democratic Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads base. And he had a 75 percent approval rating in the primarily Republican state when he left office. Even his Republican approval ratings were above 60 percent most of the time.
The one knock on Warner is his obvious lack of foreign policy experience. The best way to take care of that is to have a VP candidate with decades of foreign policy experience the popular Hispanic Democratic governor from New Mexico Bill Richardson. Richardson would take a lot of pressure off Warner in this crucial area no doubt about it. And Richardson would not have to be very involved in economic affairs either. Warner would gladly take care of that 100 percent certain.
And they are the very best ticket balanced regionally as well.
Warner puts most upper Southern and even the most progressive Deep South state Georgia in play even favoring us Dems when otherwise they'd all be Republican locks.
I probably will have to later place W. Virginia my homestate in strong Dem category too. W. Virginians know more about Warner more than people in any other state. And we W. Virginians love him too very very much!
Forget about Virginia. Warner now makes Republican Virginia a Democratic lock.
And of course Richardson would shore up most of the Western states for us Dems with their large Hispanic populations. And westerners would absolutely love and adore Mark Warner too once they came to know him. Heck even Republican locks Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming would not cross 60 percent IMHO. Montana is now very much in play as well. Arizona is at least a tossup if not lean Dem because of neighboring Dem governor Richardson making huge inroads with the Hispanic voters there. And not just them. Most Arizonans of all races, creeds, and religions all love their neighbor to death even today.
Texas would now drop to just lean Republican because Hispanics from bordering country Mexico would be "jacked up" because of this ticket. New Mexico is now taken care of because of Richardson. Arizona is now a slight Dem advantage if not higher. Even Kansas while still probably Rep would become much closer. I know some on here will probably say OK would drop to lean Rep if not a tossup in this situation. I still think it's a Rep lock but might even have to change that. Indiana now becomes for the very first time a tossup.
Maryland and Delaware now reach 60 percent for the very first time because of neighboring state candidate Warner. Louisiana now is a tossup instead of lean Dem or lean Rep. It would be a Dem lock in this race except for hurricane Katrina's displacement of New Orleans' African-American population....
The Northeast still remains a Dem lock that only a Romney-Giuliani ticket could possibly match up against this Warner-Richardson powerhouse. But Warner and Richardson still sweep it big time because it's solidly Democratic to begin with and the Iraq War is the number 1 issue there more than any other region in the country.
huskersoon83 I and everybody else on here have missed you greatly. Hope you'll be back here soon. You'll be happy to know that I dropped SD to just lean Rep. and have one of the Nebraska electoral votes as just lean Rep instead of strong.
Miss you huskersoon83 and your great analysis and predictions.
I will probably come back later and drop Oklahoma to just lean Rep instead of strong on here...
And the most important state in presidential elections the Buckeye State of Ohio now becomes a Democratic lock for the very first time. They even love Warner there.
Well I know this scenario will never happen. At least in 2008. We Democrats can still dream can't we?????
Version: 8
generic Obama map again with the following changes:
My home state W. Virginia I shifted from Republican to Democraic and from lean Rep to a tossup. I think Barack Obama will do very well in my state. Most Democrats I talk to like Obama very much.
And I took padfoot714's advice and switch Nevada and Colorado from lean Dem to tossup, even though I still think we Dems will win both those states by at least 3 points if not much more. I think Obama will do very well out west.
Left Arizona alone for now but it's definitely 50/50 as far as an Obama state is concerned.
Version: 7
My generic Obama map again with two changes, both on Florida.
I placed Florida as Democratic and as a tossup. I think Obama will do very well down there and perhaps even carry the state.
Version: 6
Here is my generic Barack Obama map.
I think actually that Obama is much less polarizing believe it or not than Thompson even though Obama is African-American. More Americans outside the Deep South are open to voting for an African-American candidate more than at any time before in our nation's history.
And even the South is much much open to it than ever before especially with the younger generations.
Obama along with every other Democratic candidate will sweep the Northeast IMHO. However I do think his winning margins there would be less unless the Rep. nominee is Fred Thompson whom if he's the Rep. nominee. I think then that my generic Fred Thompson map scenario would likely take place.
As for the Southeast not surprisingly Obama will most likely get swept there. But again I don't think the margins against Obama will be as strong unless again Thompson is the nominee. Again I believe my generic Thompson map scenario would be accurate in this case.
Actually more Southerners especially those 30somethings and under are much more open to an Obama candidacy than ever before in the history of the South. But the old guard will still be in power for at least the next 10 years down there and Obama still doesn't have a prayer down there except possibly my home state of West Virginia.
My home state of W. Virginia is by far the most progressive Southern state in terms of race relations. They are much better here in WV than the rest of the South. I think Florida and Arkansas are next but even they are way behind West Virginia for the most part. I even switched WV from strong Rep. to lean Republican and I wouldn't even be surprised if it's a tossup here believe it or not.
Hmmm. A generic Obama-Thompson race. Another good idea for an election map.....
But now my generic Obama map is much more accurate in the Midwest and the West no doubt about it.
I think the Midwest and the West will approve more of Obama than either the solidly Democratic Northeast or the solidly Republican Southeast believe it or not. Even the solidly Democratic Northeast seems to have more racial problems than either the Midwest or West believe it or not.
Obama will be very tough to beat in the Great Lakes States. I even put Wisconsin in strong Dem territory and Iowa lean Dem. even though I might have to switch WI back to lean Dem. I still think Iowa will be lean Dem too though.
Two interesting states I see in an Obama candidacy are Indiana and Missouri. Indiana is by far the most conservative of the Great Lakes but I still think Obama will do much better than any other Dem candidate there and I put Indiana as lean Rep mostly because it's right next door to Obama's home state of Illinois. Still I think that an African-American candidate will have more trouble in Indiana than in any other Midwestern State. Feedback on Indiana will be greatly appreciated. I do think that African-American turnout in Gary Indiana will be much higher than in 2004 because they will most definitely be fired up by their neighbors to the north in nearby Chicago. Not enough to flip Indiana to us Dems guite yet but it is most definitely something to watch.
And Obama will probably be the first candidate Republican or Democratic in my lifetime to put Illinois over the 60 percent tile range.
The same is really true in Missouri as well. It's almost but not quite as conservative as Indiana but probably does have more evangelicals than Indiana. But I think that Obama will be probably be stronger in Missouri than most Dem candidates once again because it borders Illinois. And turnout in the predominately African-American city of St. Louis like Gary will be much higher. This time though since Indiana is generally more Republican than Missouri I actually think that Obama can flip Missouri. Right now it's a toss-up.
Again it seems that Ohio will once again be the key swing state as usual. And as usual I'm saving Ohio for last...
As for the plains states they still vote Republican but the margins against Obama will be much less there in any other part of the country simply because they are very open to voting for an African-American candidate than in any other lily white states in the country. The only exceptions will be in Texas where Obama will do worse because it's a Southern state too and possibly Oklahoma.
And again there is very good news for us Democrats in the West. Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico will all at least lean Dem if not strong Dem. I realize now that I probably should have put NM in strong Dem territory. And the percentages for Obama will probably be higher in the West than probably any other Dem pres. candidate even though he is African-American.
I'm not as optimistic about Arizona this time however. One former Rep. governor there even strongly opposed creating a Martin Luther King Holiday and I think that in a special election about it Arizonans rejected it by I think a 52 to 48 or something similar margin. Based on that I give the Republicans there the advantage even though I think AZ is much more accepting of an African-American candidate now than then. So I put AZ as a tossup but might have to change it to lean Rep. Again feedback will be greatly appreciated.
OHIO! OHIO! OHIO! That state is always the most important swing state isn't it?
Really I'm a little undecided about Obama's chances there. There are places in Ohio that are very accepting of African-American candidates and some there which don't accept them at all. Thankfully as of now I think more Ohioans right now love Obama than hate him. And the Republicans' recent woes in the Buckeye State tell me that Obama as of now would probably carry it. Again any feedback on this will be greatly appreciated.
I would actually prefer Obama over Hillary as our Dem nominee, but sadly I still say that it's Hillary's race to win or lose. Boy I would love to be proven wrong. We'll just have to wait and see like everything else in life....
Version: 5
Here is generic Fred Thompson map....
First of all some feedback to my last map...
To AnythingGoes and equern....
Here in WV in the late 90s leading up to 2000 election people here finally got tired of Democrats who were in power since the Great Depression. Gore in my opinion lost the state instead of Bush winning it because people here were afraid that his environmental policies would put coal miners out of work. Also they strongly opposed Gore's support of gun control and they loved Bush's "Christian values" policies as well. And Bush didn't take WV lightly like Gore did and campaigned a lot harder here in WV than any other Republican pres. nominee before.
Also equern I completely agree that Kentucky could be very well vote Dem in 2008. I'll detail that in another map...
To Fabian, you might have a point on Hawaii. I really think in a Republican landslide Hawaii would be a virtual tossup. Either side could easily carry it.
Sorry everybody but I owed them an explanation on my last map.
Now to the generic Fred Thompson map:
Notice the lack of lean one way or another or tossups on it.
Explanations ahead:
In a Fred Thompson candidacy IMHO the Northeast won't vote for Thompson at all and us Democrats would sweep it fairly easily with a much higher percentage of Democratic support.
The reverse is is true in favor of Thompson in the Southeast. They would vote for him in droves down there and Republicans would sweep it like the Dems in the Northeast.
As you might expect my trouble spots on this map are the West and Midwest, not in whom they'd support but in the percentages and the confidence. You all could probably help me big time with that.
I think Missouri would now at least go from a tossup to lean Republican if not strong Republican because of the strong evangelical presence there.
The same is true for Wisconsin in reverse because it's much more less evangelical.
A state that I still am waffling on is Iowa. I think that it would probably go Democratic but am not 100 percent sure. I did put it as a tossup but may have to tweak that prediction. There are a few evangelicals there but not nearly as many as in Missouri.
As for the Plain States: the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Republicans would still carry them but I'm not sure if Thompson would receive more votes, less votes, or stay equal. Some feedback would be greatly appreciated...
However I do have great news for us Democrats, I think that Thompson will not do very well at all in the Western States. Westerners don't care too much for southern evangelicals. Yes I know that most of them voted for Bush but that was 4 years ago and the Iraq War is almost as unpopular there as it is the solidly Democratic Northeast right now. The evangelical presence is probably weaker in the West than in any other region of the country.
New Mexico would almost be a virtual lock for us now. Colorado and Nevada would turn at least to lean Dem if not stronger.
Which leads us to a key western state that has only voted once for Democrats in my 37 years and I think a lot longer, Arizona.
Arizona at one time was as Republican as you can get. Not anymore. Pres. Clinton carried it in 1996 but Bush carried it twice by a moderate margin. But I don't think most Arizonans would like Fred Thompson at all. They are not socially conservative as a whole as most Republican states. I think with a Thompson candidacy Arizona would definitely be in play. And frankly I have to give a slight advantage to us Dems right now if Thompson is the nominee. Really it's 50/50 and could go either way, making it possibly a key swing state.
But it will all come down to the most important state at all in most presidential elections:
OHIO! OHIO! OHIO!
The Republicans as of now are struggling in Ohio big time because the recent election scandals but IMHO all that could change with a Fred Thompson candidacy. He would definitely win more votes in evangelical southern Ohio but in the central and northern part of the state I actually think he could lose a few votes but not enough to counter the southern Ohio evangelical votes.
To me I still give us Dems the advantage there but it will much tougher to beat Thompson there than Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.
I think a Fred Thompson candidacy would polarize the country even more than Bush did. We'll just have to wait and see if he is even nominated in the 1st place like I think he will....
Version: 4
This is my generic Republican landslide map.
What do you guys think?
Thank God this is NOT going to happen.
My next map will be the generic Fred Thompson map. In it I state that in my opinion that in a Thompson candidacy the red states will turn even redder and the blue states will turn even bluer.
Also there will be a big geographical divide perhaps never seen in the history of presidential elections before.
It contains both very good news but very bad news as well for both the Republicans and the Democrats.
It will be South v. North v. Midwest v. West
I'm not making this up....
It's gonna get good.
Version: 3
My new electoral map with the changes I promised yesterday.
Alaska 60 percent and greater.
Wyoming 60 percent and greater.
And Arkansas switched from Democratic to Republican and from tossup to lean Republican.
Everything else stays exactly the same.
The race will basically come down to this:
anti-Hillary vs. anti-Bush and Republican Party
My next map will be a generic Republican landslide, which will not happen in my opinion. Just wanted to see what you guys think.
Version: 2
This is my generic Republican vs. Democratic map based on 2004 and 2006 elections and current polling data.
I created my 1st map at really a bad time for comments and suggestions. Sorry about that.
My next map will have the following changes:
60 percent or greater for Alaska and Wyoming.
I will also change Arkansas from Democratic to Republican and the confidence from tossup to lean Republican.
Other than that everything else stays the same. We Democrats still win even with the upcoming map.
I sadly think Hillary will be our Dem nominee unless she completely self-destructs. And she's way too intelligent to mess up like that.
I think that Fred Thompson will be Reps nominee. At least for now. Not nearly as certain as the Democratic nominee though....
I also will do both a generic Republican landslide map which will not happen IMHO and a Democratic landslide map as well.
I know I'll hear from you ConservRep from Missouri. I think you are overestimating Republican support in your state and underestimating Democratic support there. Yes you know MO a lot better than I do but still I think the Dems have a great shot of carrying it even with Hillary as nominee.
Really the 2008 election will be
anti-Hillary vs. anti-Bush-Republican Party.
Before I thought the anti-Hillary tide would be greater. Now I most definitely have changed my mind with Scooter Libby "pardon". The anti-Bush sentiment has taken over big time right now.
Battleground swing states:
Nevada.
Colorado.
New Mexico. Even though I think we're in very good shape in New Mexico right now because of Bill Richardson and the Hispanic vote.
Iowa.
Missouri.
Wisconsin.
Ohio. Again I think we Dems are in very good shape there as well because of the Reps' self-destruction there.
perhaps even Arkansas, my home state of West Virginia, and my neighboring state of Virginia as well.
Could Kentucky even be a swing state in 2008? It just might. Details coming later....
Version: 1
Bush and Republicans are very unpopular in Ohio right now. It looks pretty good for us Dems right now but a lot can happen between now and Nov. 2008.
Same is true for western states Nevada and Colorado. They are normally very Rep but again Republicans are very unpopular there as well.
New Mexico is almost but not quite a lock for Dems yet because of popular gov. Bill Richardson.
I think Missouri is more Dem than most people think. Republicans right now are very unpopular there as well.
The same is true for Deep South state Arkansas, really right now is the best if not only chance for us Dems to carry a Southern state.
Florida looks less and likely for us Dems every day. It's subject to change but not likely.
Sadly I still have to give Reps an advantage in my home state of WV and in my neighboring state of VA. But VA could be closer because of popular Dems former gov. Mark Warner and current gov. Tim Kaine and WV could be too because of our 4 Dem Congressmen and popular Dem gov. Joe Manchin.
Another state I visit a lot KY is still solidly Republican at the present time but margin of victory for Reps there could be much smaller than people think.
I might put Wisconsin in lean Dem category a little later but not just yet.
Iowa is virtually 50/50 right now.
I placed New Hampshire in lean Dem category. There too Reps are very unpopular there right now. It's still subject to change though.
I should have registered as redmcdowell instead of bluemcdowell. That's because on most sites Dem states are recorded as blue states and on here they are red.
Actually I agree 100 percent with this site. Blue has always for the most part has been synonymous (spelling) with conservatism and red with liberalism. But for some reason today on most sites it's completely different. Doesn't make sense but that's just the way it is right now.
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