Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	311
Rep	227
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	311
Rep	189
Ind	0
Tos	38

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+59	0	0	0	20	2	252	+59
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-59	25	3	227	-59
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
81	48	28	4	1

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 127

Obama gets around 300 electoral votes
net 7-8 senate seats
net 1 gubernatorial contest.

Version: 126

Last preiction.

Version: 124

CO,OH goes Democrat
NV,FL,VA goes Republican
Obama wins 52-48% over McCain.

Made all the lean Kerry states solid
All the change from R to D states lean.

Final.

Version: 122

Final prediction:
IA,OH,NM changes with OH and NM too close to call

Map is based on margin of victory being within margin of error of +/-3 percentage points, states that will flip are the ones I identified within that margin.

Version: 121

D favored: IA,NM,OR
R favored: FL,CO,VA
Too Close to call: OH

Version: 115

Down to my final predictions:
states to watch:
President: IO,NM,OH
Senate: AK,CO
Governor: MO,NC

+5 for Senate
+2 to +3 for President
+1 to even for Governor.

Version: 114

top tier: CO,OH,NH
bottom tier: IO,NM,NV

Version: 112

Top tier: IO,NM,OH
Bottom tier: OR,WI,NH

Version: 111

Top tier: CO,IO,OH,
Botton tier:OR,NH,WI

Version: 109

Top Tier: WI,IO,NM,OH
Next Tier: CO,NH,MI,WI

Version: 108

top tier: IO,NM,OH
next tier: WI,NH,NV

OH: 51-49%
NM: 50-48% one way or the other.

Version: 103

order of change parties: IO,NM,NH,CO,OH,WI
Obama should win 2-3 pts.

Version: 90

Obama 49.7%
McCain 47.5%
Others 2.0%

Version: 87

Obama vs. McCain.
Showdown states NM, NV, and CO.
Obama beats McCain narrowly
50-49.

Version: 85

CO, NM, IA, and OH should be the states to watch out for, everything else leans one way or the other.

Version: 83

TUPS: CO, FL, IA, and OH

Version: 79

Obama 51%
McCain 49%

Version: 76

B. Obama 50%
McCain 46%

McCain isn't electable, he wants to continue the war indefinately and he is running the campaign of 2004 in the year of 2008, the dems should win OH and clinch the election.

Version: 70

Dem 50%-Rep 48%

3 late breaking states deciding election: NH, OH, and NM.

Version: 62

Moved MO to lean Democratic
NM and NV lean Democratic

Version: 58

Moved CO and FL to tossups and moved NM to lean Democratic and NV to lean republican.
Everything else remains the same pretty much.

Version: 56

Decided to go with a more traditional map.
Dems beat Republicans by a slim margin with NV, IA, NM, WI, and OH providing the margin of victory in the election.

Version: 55

Moved CO and FL to tossups
Moved NV to lean GOP and move MO back to lean GOP.
NM and PA remain solid Democratic.

Version: 37

Clinton-Richardson v. Giuliani-Huckabee

States to watch out for OH and NM two bellweather states.
Final map for now.

Some of these states could be considered tossups, but I think this is where the advantage towards the prospective parties lay.

CO and NV republican swing states, PA and IA democratic swing states, OH and NM tossups.

Version: 36

This is a scenario based on how I see the race turing out. I think the Dems will end up winning based on the unpopularity of the republican party with the missed opportunities in the Bush administration. And the Dems probably will capitalize on it. I am not going to share who I am pulling for this election primary. But I am betting my prediction on who I see is the strongest challenger to win the states necessary to win this election.

Version: 28

Map purely speculative based on the current frontrunners Ms. Clinton vs. Giuliani, based on the advantage the Dems enjoy for now.

Version: 27

Map reflects the current Gallup polls showing a much tighter race in the national vote total. OH remains the state to watch out for.

Version: 25

closest states: wisconsin, new mexico, iowa, ohio, and nevada
Generic dem v. Generic republican

Version: 24

Closest states: Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio

Version: 22

Moved NC, KY, VA, and WV to lean independent candidacy is having an effect there.
Tossups: CO, NV, IA, OH, and FL
Moved NY to >60%, Clinton will win NY handily.

Version: 21

Map of Giulian or F.Thompson v. Ms.Clinton.
Bloomberg may or may not enter the race, but pre-indy announcement had the race neck and neck. So, my map isn't going to change that much.

Version: 20

Map based on current frontrunners and the current surveys that were released. Giuliani or F.Thompson v. Ms.Clinton. The Dems are favored at the present time but the election is a long way off and will be close at the end.

Version: 19

Giuliani v. Ms.Clinton
Contested states: PA, WI, IA, NM, OH, and FL
Battleground states: NV, NH, CO, MO, and WV

Version: 17

Battleground states: iowa, wisconsin, new mexico, ohio, florida, colorada, and nevada.

Version: 16

Map is a scenario based on the current frontrunners: Ms.Clinton v. Giuliani or F.Thompson
Battleground states: iowa, wisconsin, new mexico, ohio, florida, colorado, and nevada
I will update from time to time.
Map based on where we left off at in 2004.
PA and FL tu/leans towards party that won it last time

Version: 15

Hillary v. Giuliani or F.Thompson map
2 pts in favor the Dems

Version: 14

In a Hillary v. F.Thompson or Giuliani matchup remaining close states are mostly: Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Version: 13

Map represents one scenario of what I predict the election outcome will turn out, and it is based on the current frontrunners: Mrs.Clinton v. Giuliani. Other states may become more competetive, but will wait until after the primaries to see how well each match up with one another. Watch out for states like NV, and CO, where the GOP have been able to win in the past but the hispanic population may be able to overcome their advantage.

Version: 12

Map shows a scenario of the election outcome between the frontrunners.
LD: NH, WI, PA, MI, and IA
NCA: OH, NV, CO, NM and FL
LR: MO, WV, AR, and VA

Version: 10

States that were the closest in 2000 and 2004
Clinton v. Giuliani

Version: 9

Using current frontrunners Giuliani v. Hillary.
Predicting another close race no clear advantage in NH, IA, NM, FL, and NV.
states like CO, OH, and WI have the potential to change but the respective parties have a slight advantage right now in the polls.
Using the format of the last two election cycles of the states that flipped.

Version: 8

Moved PA to slight lean Democrat due to the consistently close race in PA the republicans are running in PA.

Version: 7

Moved MI, NH, and NM to slight lean Mrs.Clinton and moved FL, MO, and WV to slight lean Giuliani. No clear favorite in CO, IA, OH, and NM.

Version History

129: 2008-11-03 @ 18:49:11 128: 2008-11-02 @ 18:54:45 127: 2008-11-01 @ 16:22:39 126: 2008-10-31 @ 18:25:08 125: 2008-10-30 @ 14:58:56 124: 2008-10-28 @ 18:26:45 123: 2008-10-27 @ 10:32:14 122: 2008-10-06 @ 13:07:56 121: 2008-10-03 @ 17:01:24 120: 2008-10-02 @ 14:23:50 119: 2008-10-01 @ 18:12:47 118: 2008-09-30 @ 13:40:20 117: 2008-09-29 @ 16:30:17 116: 2008-09-26 @ 12:14:50 115: 2008-09-24 @ 10:57:37 114: 2008-09-17 @ 15:10:42 113: 2008-09-16 @ 19:54:36 112: 2008-09-12 @ 12:50:07 111: 2008-09-11 @ 12:22:38 110: 2008-09-10 @ 12:04:28 109: 2008-09-09 @ 15:06:34 108: 2008-08-28 @ 10:14:04 107: 2008-08-27 @ 10:20:58 106: 2008-08-26 @ 19:55:58 105: 2008-08-25 @ 12:32:12 104: 2008-08-19 @ 13:00:41 103: 2008-08-07 @ 11:13:07 102: 2008-07-31 @ 18:59:05 101: 2008-07-17 @ 12:56:32 100: 2008-07-15 @ 11:58:39 99: 2008-07-10 @ 10:49:51 98: 2008-07-07 @ 11:18:46 97: 2008-06-28 @ 12:05:07 96: 2008-06-04 @ 15:58:53 95: 2008-06-03 @ 11:53:12 94: 2008-05-22 @ 19:01:44 93: 2008-05-16 @ 11:57:12 92: 2008-05-08 @ 11:42:16 91: 2008-04-28 @ 10:56:56 90: 2008-04-04 @ 11:17:38 89: 2008-04-02 @ 14:05:23 88: 2008-03-31 @ 15:50:50 87: 2008-03-29 @ 12:50:07 86: 2008-03-28 @ 15:08:16 85: 2008-03-19 @ 13:35:07 84: 2008-03-12 @ 12:04:36 83: 2008-03-11 @ 11:23:13 82: 2008-03-08 @ 12:16:48 81: 2008-03-06 @ 11:09:08 80: 2008-02-29 @ 11:20:33 79: 2008-02-27 @ 11:19:13 78: 2008-02-26 @ 11:03:42 77: 2008-02-23 @ 10:20:41 76: 2008-02-21 @ 16:22:09 75: 2008-02-20 @ 12:24:53 74: 2008-02-16 @ 13:15:38 73: 2008-02-13 @ 18:06:48 72: 2008-02-08 @ 10:38:19 71: 2008-02-07 @ 10:22:37 70: 2008-01-02 @ 10:32:18 69: 2007-12-14 @ 11:39:21 68: 2007-12-11 @ 12:46:11 67: 2007-12-10 @ 13:19:08 66: 2007-12-06 @ 11:35:09 65: 2007-12-03 @ 11:11:38 64: 2007-11-24 @ 10:52:38 63: 2007-11-23 @ 11:37:42 62: 2007-11-19 @ 13:50:19 61: 2007-11-14 @ 16:31:04 60: 2007-11-13 @ 12:07:07 59: 2007-11-12 @ 14:41:59 58: 2007-11-08 @ 17:57:52 57: 2007-11-05 @ 15:30:49 56: 2007-10-31 @ 18:50:48 55: 2007-10-24 @ 10:18:26 54: 2007-10-23 @ 10:51:43 53: 2007-10-18 @ 18:24:07 52: 2007-10-15 @ 15:05:39 51: 2007-10-13 @ 12:04:17 50: 2007-10-01 @ 13:37:07 49: 2007-09-21 @ 11:13:38 48: 2007-08-24 @ 12:43:19 47: 2007-08-15 @ 10:25:26 46: 2007-08-14 @ 13:32:27 45: 2007-08-10 @ 08:37:28 44: 2007-08-08 @ 14:49:44 43: 2007-08-06 @ 06:34:52 42: 2007-08-05 @ 22:49:21 41: 2007-08-04 @ 17:27:42 40: 2007-08-03 @ 08:52:20 39: 2007-08-02 @ 20:49:14 38: 2007-08-01 @ 18:23:07 37: 2007-07-24 @ 13:18:50 36: 2007-07-21 @ 22:25:04 35: 2007-07-20 @ 01:36:15 34: 2007-07-19 @ 15:39:30 33: 2007-07-16 @ 18:49:26 32: 2007-07-14 @ 19:36:22 31: 2007-07-13 @ 20:57:43 30: 2007-07-10 @ 01:25:54 29: 2007-07-09 @ 18:46:53 28: 2007-07-05 @ 20:28:40 27: 2007-07-03 @ 13:23:44 26: 2007-06-30 @ 19:47:01 25: 2007-06-27 @ 14:02:12 24: 2007-06-26 @ 13:02:48 23: 2007-06-25 @ 18:03:12 22: 2007-06-21 @ 10:18:25 21: 2007-06-20 @ 13:46:10 20: 2007-06-19 @ 08:47:24 19: 2007-06-17 @ 23:52:39 18: 2007-06-13 @ 17:38:36 17: 2007-06-08 @ 14:26:17 16: 2007-06-07 @ 10:38:48 15: 2007-06-06 @ 01:57:36 14: 2007-06-05 @ 13:06:26 13: 2007-06-01 @ 17:48:19 12: 2007-05-31 @ 20:17:26 11: 2007-05-30 @ 21:45:34 10: 2007-05-29 @ 13:32:47 9: 2007-05-27 @ 17:49:47 8: 2007-05-26 @ 23:29:41 7: 2007-05-24 @ 17:58:48 6: 2007-05-23 @ 18:52:17 5: 2007-05-21 @ 23:20:17 4: 2007-05-20 @ 21:24:15 3: 2007-05-19 @ 23:50:44 2: 2007-05-18 @ 23:51:33 1: 2007-05-17 @ 23:31:54 View Version

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