I've analyzed all of the data, crunched all of the numbers, reviewed the trends, and looked at the get out the vote operations and voter enthusiasm, and this is the most likely result I can come up with. No more lean states at this point: I've decided that either I'm certain on a state or I'm not, no in-betweens. Missouri remains the most flippable state, I just can't get a good read of what's happening there. Regardless, unless the polls are wrong on a historic level, Barack Obama will be our 44th President. I expect him to have around a 9% lead over McCain in the popular vote. In a high-turnout landslide scenario, I think he could actually pull off upset victories in Georgia and Nebraska's second congressional district.

One final word:

VOTE

I'll probably only make one more prediction, on Monday night. I've put Georgia at tossup for what I think will be a higher than estimated African American turnout, but I still think McCain will win there. I'm keeping Indiana for McCain for now, the polls show the race basically tied there, and I do think McCain will get enough of the undecided vote to win the state. I can't get a good read on Missouri right now, I'm keeping it as a tossup for Obama but it's probably my least confident state. North Dakota is a bit of a guess and a gut feeling; there hasn't been a lot of polling there, but the small amount that there has been has shown Obama closing the gap strongly and even taking a lead in some polls. With the recent Obama ad buy there and what I believe will be a strong turnout operation as an effect of his grassroots support base left over from the primaries, I think he'll manage an upset win there.

The race seems a bit muddled right now, at least on a state-by-state basis. It seems like McCain might be gaining ground in Florida and Indiana, hence the lead change in Indiana and the reclassification of Florida as a tossup. However, Obama seems to have taken a commanding lead in New Hampshire, and North Dakota seems to still be tightening, thus the change of New Hampshire to strong and North Dakota becoming a tossup. I'm very interested in the polling I'm seeing out of Montana and Georgia (especially considering the presence of Ron Paul and Bob Barr on the respective ballots), but I'm not quite willing to call either a tossup yet. Colorado is borderline strong/lean, so I'm going to keep it as lean for now. North Carolina seems to have stopped the tightening that I had seen in a few polls, and Obama may very well be on the way to converting this to a lean state. There is actually a Loyola poll out showing McCain's lead in Louisiana at only 3%, but I'm rather suspicious of it, as none of the other polls seem to show that as anything other than a strong McCain state.

Overall though, Obama is strongly maintaining his lead in the electoral college, and McCain is quite simply running out of time. At this point, I would say that this is no longer a race John McCain can win, only one Barack Obama can lose. Almost all of the numbers I've seen on early voting seem to heavily favor Obama, although Florida is not where I would have predicted it (a major part of the decision to make it a tossup).

States to watch: McCain's economic message is aimed at blue collar workers, so if we see tightening in Ohio (which I would define as an average Obama lead of less than 4% in the four most recent polls) then there may still be an outside chance for his presidential hopes.

And now for a brief non-partisan observation: I'd just like to note how truly great it is for our country that voter registration numbers have increased to the point where they are. The most important part of a democracy is an informed, active electorate, and its quite clear that America is becoming a far more politcally conscious nation. I think that we'll break the voter turnout percentage record of 66% from the 1908 election, and that is a very positive thing.

With every day that goes by, McCain's chances of a victory are decreasing even more. Arizona might be moving into lean territory soon, based on some of the recent polling. Rather remarkable, honestly.

Based on the trends I'm seeing and the overall weakening of the McCain campaign of late, I'm willing to predict Indiana for Obama now, rather than for McCain. Both candidates have increased their totals of strong states, but Obama has the advantage in switching tossups to lean states. I'll be following Georgia closely over the next few days, as it looks like it could become a tossup. However, even if it does move to tossup I doubt that I'll be switching it to Obama, even if the polling has him ahead there. I just have a gut feeling its going to go to McCain. Missouri seems to possibly be slightly trending back to McCain, so the prediction there might change in the next few days.

I think McCain is running out of time to make this a competitive race. Obama's leads in Virginia and Colorado seem to be solidifying, and without any more debates left it would take a major event beyond McCain's control to make the race truly competitive again. The Powell endorsement can only help Obama, and I think McCain's socialism rhetoric is coming off as desperate. I've been persuaded by some recent polling to switch North Carolina to Obama, but its still very much a tossup. I'm not yet willing to call North Dakota a tossup, but at the minimum it seems to be trending in a direction that favors Obama.

I think McCain's current strategy of focusing on Pennsylvania is almost certain to fail. Obama's lead here has actually been increasing lately, to the point that fivethirtyeight.com is currently gives Obama a 98% chance of winning. Even if McCain could somehow peel Pennsylvania away, I find it hard to believe that he would sweep all of the states that I have listed as tossups, which he would need to do to win the Presidency with an electoral college vote of 273-265. A better strategy would probably be to go for Colorado and Virginia, where he has a slightly better chance of winning (though not much) and where he would have to change the minds of fewer voters.

I'll continue to update as I see any new trends emerging.

I took a good bit of time off from this site, but I decided that now, with the presidential and vice presidential nominees selected and two of the presidential debates out of the way, would be a relatively good time to give an update. Right now I see this as Obama's election to lose, with McCain needing to make up a massive amount of ground. I don't trust all of the polling data that I've seen (Indiana, West Virginia, and North Carolina leaning dem in some polls) but I do have a really good feeling about Virginia. I think the Palin pick has not worked nearly as well as McCain had hoped, and may have even backfired in some areas. Unless something dramatic happens, I'm fairly confident that Obama will win the election.

Alright, I haven't updated this in a while, so now seems like a good time. The assumed nominees are:

Dem: Sen. Barack Obama(IL)/Gov. Phil Bredesen(TN)
Rep: Sen. John McCain(AZ)/Gov. Bob Riley(AL)

Obama's appeal to independents and moderate Republicans helps leads to an overwhelming Democratic victory, helped out by the fact that many conservatives refuse to vote for McCain. Many of the independents that would have voted for McCain are turned off by his attempted embrace of conservatism. After the election, Joe Lieberman changes his affiliation to Republican. The Democrats pick up stronger majorities in both the House and Senate.

Back to a non-worst-case scenario:

D: Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY)/Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN)
R: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)/Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

Basically the same circumstances as many of my older maps.

Alright, I said I would make one, here is my Democratic worst-case scenario map.

Democrats: New York Senator Hillary Clinton/Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd

Republicans: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani/Alabama Governor Bob Riley

Joe Lieberman declares his support for the Republican ticket. US economy exits the turbulent state that it is in right now and grows strongly. Hillary declares that she will increase taxes. Chris Dodd just isn't interesting.

Ignore the confidence map, the only state I changed was New Jersey, the rest are from my last map. I suppose New York shouldn't be 60% Dem either...

Democrats: NY Senator Hillary Clinton/NC Governor Mike Easley
Republicans: Former NY City Mayor Rudy Giuliani/Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

Very similar to my last map, though recent polling makes me think that the Dems don't have quite the momentum in the West that they should. New Hampshire is back in the Democratic column, though weakly, and Connecticut is less Republican. I'm thinking Wisconsin finally goes Republican this time, though not by much and the rest of the Upper Midwest is still Democratic territory for now. Easley makes Hillary viable in the South and lower Midwest, and she picks up Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, and Arkansas while just missing West Virginia and North Carolina. All of the polling that I've seen lately gives Hillary a surprisingly large advantage over Giuliani in Arkansas, hence the sudden change from lean Rep to lean Dem. If Thompson were the Republican candidate then Arkansas would probably be tossup and likely a Republican win. I could see quite a bit of this changing before the election, though I still see the Democrats with an advantage. Hillary has to be careful with her veep pick though, she could easily screw this up. Guiliani could still pull off a win, but he'd need a few trends to reverse themselves. By 2012 the Red-Blue divide is done, and we can finally leave the torturous Bush years behind us; 2008 will be the last election where there is any trace of the Red-Blue mindset.

Alright ConservRep, now tear apart my analysis of Missouri...

Hillary Clinton/Joe Biden (D)
Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee (R)

I get the feeling that in 2008 the Democrats are going to start a major effort to convert the West into a Democratic stronghold (it won't work completely, but the region will become significantly more competitive). The convention is being held in Colorado, and the Dems will also work to improve their position with the Hispanic vote (they'll have to take a position intermediate between Bush and the average Republicans, or else too much of the rest of the country will be unhappy). Arizona is lost to the Dems, 1996 was a fluke, the last time it voted Dem was 1948. Montana will go Republican by a very small majority, and the Dems will begin to make small improvements in Wyoming, Idaho, and the Dakotas. Giuliani will play better in the Northeast than most Republicans, leading to very close wins in New Hampshire and Connecticut. Missouri will just barely go Republican as well. The Dems will begin to lose their hold on the Great Lakes states, although they will still hold on until around 2012. Kentucky and Tennessee won't trust Giuliani, leading to a Democratic win in Kentucky and a close victory for the Republicans in Tennessee. Mark Warner will run to replace the retiring John Warner, leading to Hillary winning Virginia on his coattails (Warner wins with more than 55%, Clinton not quite 50%). The Republican hold on Indiana will begin to weaken, though it won't go Democratic just yet. West Virginia, very dissatisfied with both candidates, will have the lowest voter turnout of any state. Florida will begin to turn into a Republican stronghold, Texas will begin trending Democratic. By 2012 the conventional Red-Blue setup will be broken, though it still holds some sway in 2008. Bush will drag down Republican numbers, but Giuliani is still different enough from Bush to keep the election competitive.

End Results

Democrats: 54%
Republicans: 44%
Others: 2%

Obama/Biden v. Thompson/generic Rep VP

Obama, while controversial, is more likely than any other Democrat to actually motivate people to get out to vote in the election (I'm still holding out hope that he can win the nomination, he's starting to do better in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina). Edwards has turned into a joke, and Hillary is far too polarizing. Biden provides the needed foreign policy experience that Obama lacks (even I recognize that he needs some help in that area). I think Biden's partition plan for Iraq has a better chance than most plans of at least being partially successful, and at least then hopefully we could restrict only 1/3 of Iraq from falling to the terrorists rather than the whole thing. Richardson would do well for this too, but I have a bad feeling that a double-minority ticket would not go over well with an unfortunately large number of people.

Bush indicated in the press conference he held this morning that, regardless of what Petraeus reports in September, he is going to continue the war with very few changes. Since the Republican party has not yet abandoned Bush on the war (so the polling indicates), the Republican candidates will be forced to support Bush in the primaries, leaving them in a bad position once the general election comes about (poor Ron Paul, I respect that guy). History indicates that even though Bush isn't running, his party will likely be penalized for his actions (1852, 1860, 1896, 1920, 1952, 1968, 1976, see my third map for full explanation).

Thompson will likely improve in the Republican nomination contest once he actually announces that he is running, as he will then recieve more money and be able to run more political advertisements (he's already doing extremely well considering he's not officially running). Since he reperesents the most traditionally conservative nominee (or at least is perceived as such and is viewed as a more viable candidate than Huckabee or Brownback) he will likely manage to win the nomination and then support many of Bush's policies (most polls indicate that a solid majority of Republicans still support Bush). Most Americans, however, seem to be tired of the current form of conservatism. Disapproving Republicans will probably stay home on election day, leading to a Democratic victory (If Hillary is the nominee, the Republicans would vote anyway just because they dislike her so much...and I can't blame them).

Only possible problem for the Dems is having a double-Senate ticket, but hopefully that won't matter too much.

Percentage predictions:
D - 57%
R - 40%
O - 3%

I feel almost sorry for the Republican party, the only reason they will almost certainly do poorly in 2008 is Bush. The best advice I can give the Republicans right now is to concentrate on Congress in 2008.

I could see this happening very easily if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination. I'm actually surprised no-one else has posted this particular map yet (I did see one other tie, but it involved the Dems winning Ohio and the GOP taking Wisconsin). With Hillary as the nominee, polarization would continue in 2008 along the lines of the 2000 and 2004 elections, as she is one of the most polarizing figures in modern politics. I hope for the sanity of the country that this does not happen, we just aren't ready for another election that, like 2000, takes weeks to be decided.

I decided to go back to a race without a major third-party candidate. I didn't originally think North Carolina could go Democratic, but after reading some things and looking at the demographic trends, I think that the nationwide disapproval of Bush and the war could manage to flip it by an extremely narrow margin (think narrower than Florida in 2000). I know its probably overly optimistic, but oh well. The 2006 Senate elections make me put Montana in the tossup column, although the Republicans still hold a very small advantage. I know a lot of people will question putting Texas in the lean category, but I think that in the right scenario it could go Democratic. If Hillary gets the nomination (I'm still holding out hope that she won't), I'll probably have to flip a few of these (NC, VA, maybe Missouri).

Barack Obama/Brad Henry v. Fred Thompson/Jeff Sessions v. Michael Bloomberg/Lincoln Chafee.

The Republicans, in an effort to excite their conservative base, nominate conservative former Senator Fred Thompson for the presidency. He narrowly defeats Giuliani in the primaries, mostly gaining the South and West. To make a point of opposition to Bush's policies on immigration, they choose Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama as the vice-presidential nominee.

The Democrats, wishing to end the Clinton/Bush cycle of recent years, nominate the youthful optimist Senator Barack Obama. Playing on his message of accomidating multiple views in the party and willing to compromise on some of their positions to win, they nominate the extremely popular conservative Governor Brad Henry (won re-election in 2006 with 66% of the vote) of Oklahoma for the vice-presidency.

Michael Bloomberg enters the race with the desire to capture the moderate antiwar vote. He chooses former Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (more of a Libertarian than a Republican) as his vice-presidential nominee.

The Democrats win while picking up several states that they have not won in years, including Oklahoma, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. Bloomberg picks up a few Northeastern states.

A few people have said that they wanted to see a Democratic landslide map, so I took it upon myself to do just that. I don't believe that this is actually going to happen, but I just felt like putting it out there anyway.

I decided that perhaps my original Louisiana prediction might be a bit too optimistic, although I'm still not taking it out of the tossup column. Changed a few things on the confidence map, and made a few New England states vote more than 60% Democratic. I'm not yet taking an independent Bloomberg candidacy into account.

Virginia may seem like an odd choice to many, but after the 2006 elections I get the feeling that its going to be more competitive there than at any other point in recent memory. Louisiana goes Democratic mostly as an effect of Katrina. Finally, Missouri has gone with the winner in every election since 1904 with the exception of 1956; I don't see why it would stop now.

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