11/4/2008: First iteration: 1) If Obama wins Ohio and Florida or North Carolina, he can thank the financial crisis. (2) But I maintain he was going to win anyway; Obama will win all the Kerry states + Iowa + New Nexico for 264 EV, and Colorado, Virginia and Nevada put him over the top for a floor of 291 EV, ceiling of 353 EV. (3) If Obama actually skyrockets and wins Georgia or Montana, he can thank Bob Barr. Pop vote: Obama/Biden 52%, McCain/Palin 46.5%

Obama 311: McCain 227. Ohio and Florida can stil go either way. Colorado and Virginia (22 total EV) are Obama's firewall states, and they beginning to look insurmountable.

10/7/08: It really does look better for Obama, though I still would be cautious about a few of the new tossup states.

9/14/08: This looks like it is coming down to an eight state election, and I am about to push New Hampshire Dem and Forida Rep (that would make it Obama 242, McCain 227). The idea that Obama ever had a real chance in Indiana and North Dakota, or McCain in Pennsylvania or Minnesota, was a pipedream.

6/19/2006: For now, I agree with the consensus! As for my "confidence" picks, maybe I should move MI and MN to Dem, and VA and WV to R. Much will depend on the candidates (e.g., Thompson moves TN to strong R, Richardson as veep moves NM to leans D, etc;)

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