Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	311
Rep	227
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	252
Rep	147
Ind	0
Tos	139

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+59	0	0	0	20	2	252	+59
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-59	25	3	227	-59
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
88	48	33	4	3

Analysis

Final prediction. Its a boring, conservative prediction, but I think that it is the most likely one.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 35

Second to last prediction for me it seems. Indiana and Florida aren't announced until Obama is named the winner.

Version: 34

Florida doesn't look too hot for Barack right now, but I think Indiana will narrowly swing for him.

Pennsylvania is tightening, but I still think that Obama will hold on to it, barely getting 50%.

Version: 33

Even if he wins PA, McCain will probably still lose.

Version: 32

4 days. Florida will be extremely close no matter who wins.

Version: 31

I'm sure I have repeated this exact map at least 10 times over, but the times I defected were for the sake of defection. The polls will be slightly off, and this won't be a blowout, but Obama's safe leads in Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania will help him win comfortably.

Version: 30

Standard update, with AK and LA back as Strong McCain, and SC down to Lean McCain. Additionally, Virginia is back to Lean Obama, and Nevada upgraded to Lean.

Pennsylvania is marked as swing state contrary to polls simply because McCain is putting everything into that,though he would lose if he won it anyway.

Version: 29

Missouri will be extremely close. Polls are basically a dead heat there, so I will make it Tossup McCain for the time being.

Version: 28

Obama closing in in AZ = hilarious

Version: 27

What I truly believe will happen on election day. Obama wins comfortably, but its not quite a landslide.

Version: 26

Minor change: Indiana goes from Lean McCain to Tossup McCain.

Version: 25

Miniscule adjustment giving NE-2 back to McCain. Map will probably look like this for a while since I am pretty happy with it. Tell me what you think. :)

On and off-topic note, can you change your political party affiliation on this site?

Version: 24

Okay, hee is my real prediction for the day. NC and Ohio will be epic nail-biters. At this point, there aren't really any routs to 270 for McCain. Colorado and VA are pretty much gone. McCain is putting everything on PA, but even if he did steal it (which he won't, since he is down 10 points with 2 weeks to go), he would probably lose anyway.

Version: 23

Okay, WV was a bit of a stretch... Tell me what you think of the map. McCain salvages Ohio and Florida, but countless other states slip to Obama.

Version: 22

Things continue to look bleak for McCain, and at this point, I think that Obama has the edge in NC as well. I think McCain can hold on to Florida and Ohio with persistent campaigning, but it will not be enough.

Version: 21

Somewhat conservative prediction, but realistic. NC will be VERY tight, but I think McCain will barely scrape out a win. I think West Virginia will surprisingly turn though. I think McCain's efforts will be enough to secure Ohio, NC and Florida barely, but Colorado, Missouri Virginia and other various small states will give Barack the victory. The possibility of a blowout is very much there with 62 EV that could just as easily swing to Obama. I think that Obama will win the popular vote 51-47 either way though.

Tell me what you think. I would love to have a discussion.

Version: 20

NC looks good for Obama, Florida does not. Tell me what you think. :)

Version: 19

I am stunned by the polling in ND. It just doesn't make sense.

Version: 18

Basically the same prediction as last time, but with GA now a swing state. I can't wait to see what really happens and if the polls truly are untrue.

Tell me what you think. :)

Version: 17

Obama will lose all but one bellwether state and win. I have flip-flopped (heh) about this, but then I look at Gore in 2000, losing all of our current bellwethers.

This prediction is a bit more conservative than most Obama predictions. However, I believe that race will be a factor, and keep McCain within 100 EV. I see McCain taking Ohio narrowly, after throwing the kitchen sink at it, at the cost of Virginia, Nevada, Florida and Colorado.

Missouri, Ohio and Nevada look to be the tightest states at this point. Tell me what you think.

Version: 16

New prediction. Way too many strong states were listed as lean last time. Also changed VA because despite the polls it is still a traditional red (er... blue) state, and NH because I think McCain will fight hard there.

An Obama victory is not a certainty, but he will at lease carry the Gore states. based on my map, Johm McCain has about a 10-to-1 chance of winning the election, which sounds about right. Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Misery will be the closest.

Version: 15

My new prediction. Not the landslide my last one was, but still a nice comfortable win. I just don't see North Carolina going to the Dems, and Florida has always been a questionable one.

Version: 14

NC and Florida surprisingly are looking really good for Obama. The blowout scenario stands. All 3 bellwethers will be tight, but I think in this caliber landslide, they will go for Obama.

Version: 13

Swapped Indiana and WV, while giving Florida to Obama. When all is said and done, I doubt McCain gets less than 200 EV, but at this point, it looks like this is where its going...

Version: 12

Where I think its going right now. Missouri, Ohio, Nevada and Indiana will all be very, very close, but Obama could win without them. (Obama could look to do what Gore narrowly failed to [unless you subscribe to the belief of the election being stolen] do and win without any of the bellwether states)

Version: 11

West Virginia is the major boilover in this map. This is in part a response to ARG's 50-42 Obama poll (polling 10 or so consecutive McCain lead ones), but also due to geography, its past Democratic history, and how it ties my map together. Just a hunch.

Indiana is the other switch. McCain is regaining speed here, but I predict it will turn come election day.

Version: 10

No changes to the actual prediction itself, but I updated the confidence map.

Version: 9

Missouri doesn't look so god for Barack right now, but it, along wiht Florida, NC and Indiana are not out of reach for Barack. Wisconsin, a close 2004 state and a predminantly white one could swing, but New Hampshire is looking pretty safe right now, despite the McCain Northeast hype.

Should be interesting to se what happens following the debates though. Popular vote prediction remains 52-47 Barack.

Version: 8

Obama is winning all 3 bellwether states (only barely in MO, but still), and so at this point this scenario looks pretty likely. There is still a month to go though, and I know this will continue to change.

Projected popular vote: Obama 52, McCain 47

Version: 7

In response to latest polls, I moved Virginia to Obama, and made Maine CD 1 and 2 tossups. Also upgraded Pennsylvania to Lean Obama.

Version: 6

My latest prediction. Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire look to be the closest states, followed by Nevada and Minny. MO goes blue as it narrowly favors Obama, and perennially goes with the winner.

Version: 5

Minnesota and Nevada look to swing. Florida looks to close to call, but I think it ends up voting Republican. Virginia continues to look better and better for Obama.

Version: 4

Things continue to look up. Logically swapped Ohio and Pennsylvania, updated with McCain giving up Michigan and gave Virginia to Obama. (that one will be close. I see popular going 51-46 Obama at this point, but all of this will probably change.

Version: 3

A bit too optimistic here, but I honestly think that Obama could win by nearly 50 electoral votes. I think the smaller swing states will decide this one, barring a major boilover like Pennsylvania or Florida.

Version: 2

Shot in the dark. I am sure this will be a close election.

Closest states: Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin

Version: 1

I'm back, 4 years later, with a new prediction. Basically the same as last year, but with NM and Ohio going Democrat.

Version History

36: 2008-11-04 @ 01:29:24 35: 2008-11-03 @ 11:14:52 34: 2008-11-02 @ 23:57:23 33: 2008-11-01 @ 16:11:13 32: 2008-10-31 @ 21:00:23 31: 2008-10-30 @ 18:22:57 30: 2008-10-29 @ 15:27:54 29: 2008-10-28 @ 17:04:01 28: 2008-10-27 @ 18:40:58 27: 2008-10-26 @ 02:34:27 26: 2008-10-24 @ 15:45:51 25: 2008-10-23 @ 03:14:03 24: 2008-10-22 @ 16:37:15 23: 2008-10-21 @ 01:24:37 22: 2008-10-20 @ 15:49:55 21: 2008-10-19 @ 19:27:32 20: 2008-10-18 @ 18:59:36 19: 2008-10-17 @ 15:43:18 18: 2008-10-16 @ 00:51:18 17: 2008-10-15 @ 15:39:20 16: 2008-10-14 @ 17:13:53 15: 2008-10-13 @ 11:03:01 14: 2008-10-12 @ 15:38:21 13: 2008-10-11 @ 05:25:24 12: 2008-10-10 @ 19:39:29 11: 2008-10-09 @ 22:26:05 10: 2008-10-08 @ 10:53:40 9: 2008-10-07 @ 16:44:47 8: 2008-10-06 @ 11:07:07 7: 2008-10-05 @ 14:14:46 6: 2008-10-04 @ 21:44:29 5: 2008-10-03 @ 18:24:41 4: 2008-10-02 @ 21:03:24 3: 2008-09-28 @ 18:13:53 2: 2008-06-08 @ 17:43:10 1: 2008-01-03 @ 18:45:24 View Version

Member Comments

By: Lamrock (D-WA) 2008-11-07 @ 01:32:07
My map was too safe this time. I wimped out of Indiana going D at the last minute and regret it. Was also pessimistic about NC and FL, and had nearly every state at 50%. At least Obama won.

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