Final.

And...the death of the Republic will follow shortly thereafter.

This could be close. And this map is why I think it's so important for John McCain to play hard in Maine.

Things have died down a little, and Obama has come back a bit due to the goings-on of Wall Street. I still maintain that Obama is over-performing in polls. This race is McCain's to lose, thanks in large part to Sarah Palin. I gave New Mexico, Michigan, and Wisconsin back to Obama and Maine 2 to McCain. Also adjusted the margins. In some of these states, it's going to be tight and if McCain can pick off any of the upper Midwestern states...to reiterate, ANY...Obama's goose is cooked.

This race is starting to pull away. Biden was an awful VP pick. Palin was an awesome pick. The Democratic convention was a dud. The Palin controversy (generated in totality by the media) made the Republican convention a huge success. Her speech was amazing. 13 million more people watched her as compared to Joe Biden. John McCain's speech was pretty damn good, too. And he had more viewers than Obama. Palin helps with the base (which helps with turnout, rallies, yard signs, get out the vote measures, etc.). She helps with women. It makes McCain look like a Maverick again. His numbers are bouncing. Obama's are falling. McCain is doing better with Hispanics. Over and over again, the Obama camp is making huge missteps. Worse for Obama and Biden are the upcoming debates. Obama debates like a Constitutional Law professor. He pivots and hedges. It will be simply awful. And any honesty is sure to be lethal as his entire platform is basically Communistic. The game has changed. The tides have turned. And Obama in sinking like a heavy stone.

Things are looking better for McCain. I give him back Michigan and New Hampshire. It'll be interesting to note how this map changes after the conventions and the selections of running mates. Obama is tanking hardcore. And with the exception of the week of the Democratic Convention/picking of the running mate (which he is completely retarded to wait until the week of the convention to pick, btw), his numbers will continue to flatten. Missouri is off the table for him and Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio keep moving further into McCain's column. Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin continue to lean his way, but I see him losing ground in those places, as well. And if McCain picks Pawlenty (which I foresee as likely at this point), then Minnesota and Wisconsin will both become very contentious (at least for a while). I hope McCain picks Pawlenty or Palin. Palin would be a brilliant choice; especially if Obama picks a man as this will make the Republican ticket even more palatable than it already is to disenfranchised Hillary voters and to women, in general. I think Obama will pick Biden...which might get him above the 60% mark in Delaware and provide some minimal boost to his overall lack of experience in foreign policy. But ultimately, this will not assuage the fears of people who already have doubts about Obama...though I'm certain his followers will immediately claim that all his problems in the foreign policy arena are immediately solved. I am most fearful of his selection of Bayh, because this could get him Indiana (as a resident of Louisville, I am well aware of the ignorance of the general population of Indiana), but am not at all fearful of a selection of Kaine as this would not bring him Virginia.

Barack Obama: the last president of the first republic

Please Lord...take him away.

Die, Obama. Die...

Adjustment based on recent trends. And hopefully the last before the conventions. Die Obama, die.

Unless Obama gets assassinated, it's pretty clear (though unfortunate) that he will be the Democratic nominee. Which may be a lucky break in the end, because Hillary was polling much better than he is in several key states. Ultimately, his candidacy is doomed, and there's not much he can do to "change" that. If anyone but John McCain was the GOP nominee, this might have been a blowout year, presidentially.

Obambi is dead meat. But I'm still lining some things back up for him. He's stronger in the west than I would like. But those states are too strong to flip (with the exception of New Mexico). And in the rust belt...he's not going to play very well at all. Plus McCain is already stronger there that Bush ever was...all that means that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will flip to the GOP...and Ohio will be safely out of Obama's reach. Landslide for McCain in 08'.

My last projection was a worst case scenario for Barack Obama, explaining how it is possible for him to be completely wiped out in November. However, I do not think that the total, complete wipe-out is the most plausible scenario. This gives too much credit to the judgment of the American people. So I gave 7 states back to him that he didn't win in my last projection. The adjustments for these 7 states are explained below.

California: Barbara Boxer got 57% here. Obviously there is something in the water. Either that, or the hordes of illegals that have inundated the state over the past two decades have completely changed the political makeup of the state.

Oregon: On second thought, I have decided that this state is actually probably a more Liberal state than Washington at this point. Salem holds a larger share of the statewide population than Seattle does. Also the state is smaller, and the population is growing faster. All these trends favor the Democrats.

Illinois: Barack could possibly lose his home state. But lets be honest. Most people don't pay that much attention before they cast their votes. And he'll get enough to avoid loss just by virtue of being from the state.

Minnesota: This state is trending slowly Republican. But not fast enough for this election. It has the longest Democratic streak of any state, presidentially.

Maryland: Very, very large African American population. Nuff said.

Delaware: Historically Republican, the influx of people from Jersey and Maryland has flushed out all common sense in the state.

Connecticut: Still a Republican possibility...but the polls here don't show much hope right now.

Barack Obama manages to excite stupid college students who know nothing about the world or how it works and get their news from Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert. Behold the awful effects of an entire generation that has been exposed only to one propagandizing point of view. A bunch of lobotomized, amoral degenerates with no appreciation for anything other than their own selfish desires. This election proves that the Democrats could run the Antichrist himself and still not fall below 40% of the popular vote. All this means that America will soon fall. The stock market will crash in the next few years. I actually think it's likely that Barack Obama may be assassinated before the election. If that happens, Hillary will become the replacement nominee and will beat McCain in the general due to sympathy for the fallen savior...er um...Senator Hussein Obama. Think of Obama as a John the Baptist type of figure for the real Antichrist. Preparing the way, don't you know? Hillary will welcome the Antichrist to our shores sometime during her 8 year reign. Just wanted to go on record predicting an Obama assassination. I feel like it's gonna happen. We'll see if I'm right.

Surely this map will cause great consternation to some, so perhaps I should explain why I see this happening. It depends on the current trajectory continuing through November. Also, in the past couple days, a poll was released which shows that McCain would pull 20% of current Hillary voters if Obama defeats Hillary. This is very likely true as Hillary pulls blue-collar and rural voters who would have a hard time voting for Obama (who is far out on the left) with McCain (who appeals heavily to centrist voters) as the GOP nominee. So that into consideration, this is McCain/Pawlenty v. Obama/?.

The states that no one finds in contention will not be discussed.

Washington - Moderate, purple/blue state with lots of farm workers in the East. Dino Rossi is a very strong candidate for Governor (since he won four years ago) and will help McCain and vice versa. King County cannot offset big margins in the rest of the state. Simple as that.

Oregon - Like Washington, but even more Republican. Even if Washington doesn't fall, Oregon should.

California - Governor Schwarzenegger and the huge Hispanic population makes it hard for Obama to win here. Hispanics like McCain, so those that voted for Hillary should bolt to McCain as there are continuing racial tensions between African and Hispanic Americans.

Nevada - Perennial Democratic target that they never win. Like Jersey for the Reps. No way it changes hands.

New Mexico - 43% Latino. Nuff said.

Hawaii - Barack's home state, so it stays Dem. If not for that, there would be no way, even here.

Minnesota - Trending Republican already, the strength of McCain, and the added benefit of Pawlenty put this one over the top. Plus it's 99% white.

Iowa - Caucuses do not represent the majority of the electorate. Only party activists. The farmers who vote Democratic here are good, midwestern people. McCain will easily win this state by a more sizable majority than did Bush in 04'.

Wisconsin - Trending GOP faster than Minnesota. Almost won in 00' and 04'. This is the year.

Illinois - With Obama's scandals and soaring negatives, he may have a hard time getting his Senate seat back in a couple years. Outside Cook County, this state is as Republican as Indiana. It's a margins game, and while a tossup, it doesn't look good for Barack in Southern Illinois.

Michigan - Very close in 04'. McCain won the 00' primary here. This is a moderate state perfectly crafted to McCain. Much more so than Arizona ever was. The economy of the state also helps McCain.

West Virginia - Bush started a trend here. And this is Appalachia. White, socially conservative voters vote Democratic here because of their Unions. But you want them to vote for a black man with the title "most Liberal Senator"? Yeah...guess again.

Virginia - The greatest hope of the Democrats is that as D.C. takes over Northern Virginia, the Democrats will start winning here. But Southeast Virginia is blue collar city. These voters will defect HUGELY to McCain. This isn't the year for a change here.

Florida - Not even a question. Cuban Americans in the south and Blue Collar, Reagan Dems in the north means this one is off the table from the beginning. Also the large Jewish population is unhappy with Barack's support for the Nation of Islam and other Anti-Jewish groups.

Maryland - Toss-up due to large African-American population. Elected Ehrlich in 02' though, as Governor, so it is possible. Close but no cigar for the Dems here.

Delaware - Dupont Republicanism is still strong here, and McCain is a perfect fit for the politics of the state. If Maryland falls, Delaware will have larger than expected margins for the GOP.

Ohio - Everyone's favorite swing state has some realigning to do. By election day 08' that will have happened. Bob Ney and Bob Taft will be but a distant memory. And like Michigan, McCain is a perfect fit for the state.

Pennsylvania - Has more likelihood of going GOP in this cycle than Ohio. Home of the Amish. Philadelphia typically offsets margins in other parts of the state...not so this year.

New Jersey - Just made fun of the Dems for hoping for Nevada...now I give Jersey to the Reps...finally. May sound silly, but the state is tanking and Democrats control everything. Who they gonna blame? Yup, you got it.

New York - Still Dem, but a pickup is possible even here. Hillary's from this state, remember.

Connecticut - More moderate NE state. Jodi Rell, Joe Lieberman, Chris Shays...McCain wins.

New Hampshire - Live free or die state is solidly GOP this year. McCain is a rock star here.

Maine - Collins and Snowe are stumping hard. And this moderate brand of Republicanism is symptomatic of the entire state, ergo...McCain is a perfect fit.

This isn't quite a McGovern or Mondale year for the GOP. But if these trends continue (and they will)...then it may come close.

In light of Barack Obama's pastor getting some air time recently. Cooked...COOKED...

McCain/Pawlenty (or Sanford) v. Obama/Whoever.

B. Hussein Obama is the McGovern of the new millenium.
Muslim. Angry. Black power. Fake. No ideas. Full of BS. Communist.
It's like Jesse Jackson and Osama Bin Laden had a love child and he's the Democratic nominee for President.
The Democrats had this election won. But as usual, they blew it when they showed up.
McCain has to be feeling pretty good right about now.

Romney/Thompson v. Clinton/Richardson. This is what I think both tickets will look like as of this writing.

I don't do "This is what would happen if Candidate A went up against Candidate B maps." But in this case I am because I find it pretty terrifying. Hillary Clinton v. Mike Huckabee. Because Huckabee is now in the lead in some pretty important places. Behold the awful effects of the Rovian formula. I have finally decided to support Mitt Romney (in the absence of Thompson and only because Duncan Hunter is still polling at 0%, but still). Hillary will probably win versus Huck. And right now he's ahead in South Carolina and Iowa. Giuliani, Thompson, McCain, or Romney. We really could make it with any one of them. But not Huckabee. Please God, not Huckabee.

Just some tweaking of confidence and margins. Also, I gave Connecticut to the GOP and Arkansas to Hillary. This map is still assuming that Rudy is the GOP nominee. At this point, I think we can rule Fred Thompson and John McCain out of the Republican race. Mitt Romney also appears likely to fizzle out soon. Unless Mike Huckabee does super well in the Iowa caucuses and decently in the New Hampshire primary, it's unlikely that someone else is going to overtake Giuliani at this point. And in spite of all Hillary's mistakes, Barack is never going to beat her in the primary. She'd have him killed like she did everyone involved in Whitewater before she let that happen, anyway. Hillary v. Rudy. Should be interesting.

I thought I would do a Rudy as the GOP nominee analysis. I didn't think he could pull it off, but it looks like disdain for Hillary Clinton is trumping concern over Rudy for many primary voters. For all intents and purposes, Hillary is the Democratic nominee. That certainty has changed things. Rudy is definitely the GOP leader. I give Rudy Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire. I give Wisconsin and Iowa back to Hillary because I feel that the "woman" factor, plus the fact that Rudy will turn off some Christian Conservatives, means that Hillary will take those states. Many women will vote for Hillary because of her gender and many Christians will not vote at all. The latter reason is also why the South looks iffy. If enough voters just don't vote...Hillary could pull a major upset in this part of the country. However, Rudy on the ticket helps the GOP in other areas of the country. Especially the rust belt and the non-Pacific West. Of course this is all preliminary and the field is still in play, both in the primaries as well as the general. Something could change overnight. On the Congressional side of things, I predict that the Senate will end up in a draw. The Dems will take John Warner's open seat, and the Republicans will oust Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. However, the Republicans will keep all their open seats elsewhere, including New Mexico and Colorado. Incumbents like Susan Collins and John Sununu will also wind up holding their seats. 51-49 in Dems favor there. On the house side of things, a series of retirements has crippled the GOP's chances of narrowing the Democratic majority there. Also, fundraising has been very sluggish. However, Hillary may have a negative, trickle down effect in many races, e.g. Georgia and Pennsylvania. Overall, I predict the GOP will lose as many as 5 open seats, no incumbents, and will pick off several Democratic incumbents. GOP gains 1 or 2 overall (which should be seen as a major loss, frankly).

I really think this election is going to be very close. Without Rudy on the ticket (and I don't think he will be), the GOP stands little chance of taking anything in the Northeast. And three of those states, I believe, will give Hillary better than 60%. On the Republican side, Colorado (which we must keep to have any chance at winning) is looking all the more iffy. That's what happens when hoards of illegals come in with their entire extended families and start voting, I guess. New Mexico is gone. Ohio may be gone. The victory, in my estimation...depends on Wisconsin and Iowa. If we win those two states, then chances are we've won. Without them, holding Ohio is absolutely necessary. The current national wave against the GOP is not without its justifications. The party went to D.C. promising to govern as Conservatives...and ended up as typical tax and spend Liberals; and no one is more guilty that the President, who single-handedly turned our growing majority into a disenchanted minority. We can win in 2008. But it is going to require more courage than I think the current field of candidates has. It helps that the Democrats have proven that they are utterly incompetent in the administration of the Congress and that of their three top candidates for the presidency, two are certifiable and the third (though arguably the only one that will matter come general election time) has very high negatives and a rapist for a husband. I say the chances of either side winning are no better than 50%. And the GOP will lose seats in the Senate. On the House side of things, I think that we could have taken it back in 08; I really do. But with the retirements, fund-raising, candidate recruitment, and general mismanagement I've seen, only modest gains will be made. 5-7 incumbent Democrats will lose, with the Democrats taking one or two open seats. It's gonna be a craptastic year for the Grand Old Party, I'm afraid.

Just an initital correction to the original. I always am a little bit subjective until I really sit down and look at what I'm working with. That's why every change in confidence and margins favors the Dems in this second map (except the confidence changes in New Jersey and Hawaii). I also gave Wisconsin back to the Dems. The trends are in their favor there and besides...it's just too early to make a call like that.

This is a Fred D. Thompson v Hillary R. Clinton match-up. The numbers don't change much if Rudy is the GOP nominee; the margins just decrease in some of the more conservative red states and increase in some of the more liberal red states. Rudy could also probably more nearly win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Michigan for the GOP. If Edwards or Obama is the nominee, the GOP might do even better than they do here. I'm predicting a 53-47 outcome nationwide.

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