Comments History
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hideVersion: 7
Rasmussen polling now has McCain tied (or within striking distance) in all battleground states!
On another note, a letter from McCain's chief pollster, Bill McInturff, states that Exit polls (early voter polls included!) being released will skew toward Obama, as historically they tend to overpoll the Democrat (in 2004, Exit polls overpolled Kerry by 5.5 points) both at the national level and the state level.
Read it here:
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODg5ODI2ZWU2NTM5YmNmYmY3Yjc4YjAwMWY0YzE4NmI=
There is also some suspicion that they will OVEREXAGGERATE Obama's numbers, as several polling organizations have shown that Democrats intend to participate in Exit polls over Republicans by over 10% this year! (More than in previous.)
On another note, GREAT NEWS for McCain in Florida: Both SurveyUSA and Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg have the Arizona Senator besting Obama AMONG EARLY VOTERS (those that have already voted!)by +8 and +4% respectively, despite the early voting demographics being 45.5% Democrat, 37.6% Republican!
It's looking like Florida is certain to be his!
(Way to go PUMA!)
Version: 6
IT'S GOING TO BE A LANDSLIDE, FOLKS!!!!
I was listening to a popular conservative radio talk show yesterday--on XM Radio--QUINN & ROSE based in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, and they had a guest just back from McCain's camp with news on "GOP Internal Polling" results for this week. Obama's going to get creamed! (The national polls and state polls are way off!)
McCain's own internal polling shows the Republican winning NEW JERSEY--yes, NEW JERSEY!--48% to 43%; MICHIGAN, 44% to 42% (with 10% undecided but likely to lean toward the Republican); PENNSYLVANIA, 55% (HOLY COW!) to Obama's 33% . . .
And here's the shocker I've been predicting for months: CALIFORNIA! Obama 44%, McCain 43%, and 9% undecided (but leaning toward McCain 4 to 1!)
And here's the catalyst: Democrats are defecting to McCain in select states by nearly 40%--yes! 40%!
So why are voters overwhelming supporting McCain? According to McCain's internal polls, it isn't because Obama is perceived as a socialist or a communist, it isn't because he's seen as too liberal or too inexperienced. And it isn't because he's black! The number one answer among most respondents: They feel that "HE'S CHEATING, AND THAT HE'S TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION" (no doubt with the assistance of the media)!!!
I spent all day yesterday searching on the internet, hoping to find transcripts or a copy of the radio program, and last night I finally did!
HERE IT IS:
http://www.wpgb.com/cc-common/podcast/single_podcast.html?podcast=quinn.xml
Go to "Quinn & Rose - 10.31.08: Hour 2" and click "Listen". The dialogue on McCain's Internal Polling results begins at 22 minutes, 25 seconds into the audio.
OR PASTE THE HTTP ADDRESS BELOW to your url, hit ENTER, then "save" or "play" (remember, 22 minutes, 25 seconds into the audio if you want to bypass the remainder of the show):
http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18227/1h/cchannel.download.akamai.com/18227/podcast/PITTSBURGH-PA/WPGB-FM/103108-700.mp3?CPROG=PCAST&MARKET=PITTSBURGH-PA&NG_FORMAT=newstalk&SITE_ID=1945&STATION_ID=WPGB-FM&PCAST_AUTHOR=FM_Newstalk_104.7&PCAST_CAT=News/Talk&PCAST_TITLE=Quinn_and_Rose
Just thought I'd share this!
ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS (my projections):
BARACK OBAMA/JOE BIDEN (D): 42%
JOHN MCCAIN/SARAH PALIN (R): 54%
Other: 4%
RESULTS BY PARTY:
JOHN MCCAIN: Republican 94%; Democrat 34%; Independent 68%
BARACK OBAMA: Republican 3%; Democrat 63%; Independent 25%
OTHER: Republican 3%; Democrat 3%; Independent 7%
TERMS THAT WILL BE POPULAR AFTER THIS ELECTION:
(1) "Bradley Effect."
(2) "The media created an environment of intimidation" which led to . . . (3)
(3) "Polling inconsistency", "Polling inaccuracy."
(4) "Racism."
(5) "Media bias", "Media favorites."
(6) "Sexism."
(7) "The Blue state/BLUE-Blue state divide"
Version: 5
I couldn't resist!
Election Night 2008 . . .
Barack Obama (D) Vs. John McCain (R).
Great news for John McCain!
Rasmussen Reports will release a poll tomorrow showing Americans now trust John McCain more on the economy than Barack Obama (It's the economy, again, stupid!). . . and John McCain's chief pollster, Bill McInturff, states things are more gloomy for Barack Obama in his polling than the network media is currently indicating, though they too will begin to acknowledge it in days to come . . . *snickers*
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDkxMTU1YjgxODExMzNmMjMzNmUyN2Y0YzZiZDQzNjM
(And yes--I'm still writing up my thoughts and analysis from my previous map, so patience!)
Version: 4
Hillary Clinton (D) Versus John McCain (R) via Latest Overall Polls!
Hillary Wins!
Version: 3
Obama/Edwards Vs. McCain/Thune
I still think the final result will be something like this. I have Obama eking out a victory in Connecticut in this one.
Expect the political word of post-November 4, 2008 to be "Bradley Effect."
My biggest argument for this is the Democratic Caucuses versus Primaries. In the public Caucuses where one's selection is made public, Obama wins in a landslide. In the Primaries, where one's vote is held secret, Hillary wins outright. Can this be contributed to fear of being thought of as a racist in public settings? I'm sure some of it may. But I think Caucuses, with their short durations, boisterous environments, and complex rules, also discourage voters that tend to be shyer and more personal--a large segment of the population!
Now, Obama owes his delegate count to the Public Caucus states, (he won the vast majority of them and they numbered many) while Hillary owes hers to the Primary states (both large and small). Consider Texas: Obama is trouncing Hillary in the Caucus, but Hillary beat him in the Primary--(and she still beats him in the popular vote in the state when the Primary votes and Caucus votes are combined!) How many of those Caucus states would Hillary have won if they held Primaries?
With Obama winning Texas with 58% of the Caucus vote to Hillary's 42%, but losing it in the Primary by 47% to Clinton's 51% the only conclusion I can draw is that Caucuses are highly under-representative of a population. Expect Obama to be much weaker in Caucus states than outcomes have suggested when matched against McCain.
Now, add the large defection rate that is threatening to bolt for McCain if Hillary is not the nominee (28% of Clinton Supporters according to Gallup) and I think McCain's victory will be much larger than current polls are letting on (even though at the moment McCain still leads Obama nationally according to Rasmussen and Gallup Polls).
I expect McCain's margin of victory to be anywhere between 6 to 9% of the vote--a whopping landslide in what should be a Democratic year! 2008 will be one for the History books!
Version: 2
It looks increasingly like John McCain (R) will face Barack Obama (D) in the General Election for the most coveted seat in the nation--the leather chair sitting behind the ornate, Victorian desk in the Oval Office.
In this scenario I have John Thune selected as John Mccain's runningmate. Bright, handsome (and I do mean Gorgeous!), articulate, he should prove to be John McCain's more appealing counterpart. A popular Senator from the state of South Dakota, his youth should play well off of McCain's haggard, veteran appearance. Plus, being younger, it should reassure voters that this Republican ticket will acknowledge the concerns of middle-aged Americans and younger--while still respecting the concerns of the older. Tonka trucks meets Metamucil. Not bad!
Kathleen Sebelius is often floated around as a possible Obama runningmate, but she doesn't strike me as the kind of person that would perform well for him outside of Kansas. John Edwards does--especially in what's still touted to be an Anti-Republican year. Beautiful, intelligent, young--like Obama--he might be the white alternative Obama needs to get the nation to vote for him. Secondly, after a bloody battle with Clinton, he will need a highly-respected--and neutral--Democratic runningmate to unify the base. John Edwards is the only candidate capable of doing that at this point. No one else comes close.
Let's begin:
Election Day--November 4, 2008.
(The following Timeline assumes all State Polls close as they were scheduled in 2004)
The Nation is eager. Political pundits and avowed "experts" pour over polls showing Obama holding leads (in some cases slightly) over McCain in many "Blue states", including California, Washington, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Hawaii. Conflicting polls show him winning and losing in the "Red States" of Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. He leads among voters that have "already made up their minds" in New Mexico and Nevada. Polls also show McCain with slight leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio among voters that have made up their minds.
From the punditry talk over the last two months, one gets the sense that the Tossup States this year are:
Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, New Jersey, Massachussets, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine. Many states are up in the air and everybody with an eye attuned to politics is nervous or is interested.
6:00 PM (EST)
The First Polls close in Kentucky and Indiana. Neither state is called.
7:00 PM (EST)
INDIANA is called for McCain. KENTUCKY is called for McCain. VERMONT is called for Obama. The Exit polls show McCain with a huge 2 to 1 lead in Kentucky and similar margin of victory in Indiana. Obama takes Vermont convincingly.
McCain 19
Obama 3
8:00 PM (EST)
TENNESSEE, WEST VIRGINIA, ALABAMA, and OKLAHOMA are called for McCain. The DISCTRICT OF COLUMBIA, DELAWARE, ILLINOIS, and MARYLAND are called for Obama. MAINE'S electoral votes are "Too Close To Call". OHIO is "Too Close To Call". NEW JERSEY, MASSACHUSSETS, CONNECTICUT, and FLORIDA are "Too Early to Call". Exit polls show McCain trouncing Obama in Tennessee, Alabama, and West Virginia. McCain takes Oklahoma in a rout. Obama wins D.C. by an incredible 85% victory. Exit Polls show Obama winning his home state of Illinois easily with some disparaging signs in the south. Delaware and Maryland are won by 4% and 7% margins--the first symptoms of what's to come.
McCain 51
Obama 40
9:00 PM (EST)
MICHIGAN is "Too Early To Call." OHIO is called for McCain. Democratic pundits make the case that they can win without Ohio. NEW JERSEY is called for McCain. CONNECTICUT is called for McCain. Shock! It begins to dawn on Democrats that they may indeed lose this election, and they begin to concentrate their attention on the South and on the Rocky Mountain/Plain states in hopes of obtaining a victory. Republicans look curiously at the results as it becomes apparent to them that they may in fact win and win by a significant margin. MASSACHUSETTS is called for McCain. The Democrats are now filled with dread, fighting the distinct possibility that they may lose on a terrible order. GEORGIA, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and WYOMING are called for McCain. Despite being an object of obssession for Democrats months before, VIRGINIA is called for McCain. SOUTH DAKOTA, John Thune's homestate, is called for McCain. Despite the losses, NEW YORK and RHODE ISLAND are called for Obama, relaxing Democrats a tad--but not much. Pundits begin to discuss what the prospects of a Clinton nomination would have been.
McCain 201
Obama 75
10:00 PM (EST)
It becomes more obvious to Democrats from the losses they've accrued an hour ago that they may lose and lose big. Still, some fight this suggestion by becoming concentrated on the Deep South and in other parts of the country. This is exacerbated when PENNSYLVANIA is declared "Too Early To Call", as are LOUISIANA and MISSISSIPPI. UTAH, ARKANSAS are called for McCain. FLORIDA is called for McCain. The state of MISSOURI is called for McCain very quickly. McCain's homestate, ARIZONA, is called decisively for him--and he wins by a whopping 58% of the vote--despite earlier predictions that it would fall in Lean Republican territory!
McCain 260
Obama 75
11:00 PM (EST)
This late in the game all eyes are on states west of the Mississippi river and on MISSISSIPPI and LOUISIANA. The dread among Democrats is now fever pitched. Barack Obama must now win virtually every other state left in this election to win. LOUSIANIA and MISSISSIPPI are called for McCain. It's over.
McCain 275
Obama 75
John McCain is declared the PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Barack Obama concedes the election.
And the night proceeds in an eclectic mix of jubilation and dread . . .
Version: 1
This is what I believe the eventual outcome will be between Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R). It will be a landslide scenario for John McCain.
I think on Election night the Democratic party is going to be in shock about just how weak Barack Obama was as a candidate, and the following day there's going to be a lot of moaping.
The fact that there is this much resistance to making Obama the nominee this late in the Democratic Primaries is a horrible sign of his chances in November.
Democrats will not be unified on election day.
I PREDICT:
MCCAIN WILL win the majority of white women.
MCCAIN WILL win the majority of white men.
MCCAIN WILL win over 50% of the hispanic vote. The first such Republican to do so since before the Presidency of FDR.
MCCAIN WILL win over 50% of the Asian vote (concentrated in California and New York). The first such Republican to do so since before the Presidency of FDR.
MCCAIN WILL win the majority of those that identify themselves as Jewish--another Republican breakthrough.
MCCAIN WILL win over 70% of those aged 60 and older.
OBAMA WILL win over 90% of the African American Vote.
OBAMA WILL win the majority of voters 18 through 30.
John McCain will have the clear advantage on Election Night.
2008 will go down in the record book as an Unexpected Democratic Disaster--at least in terms of the Presidential White House Bid.
PROJECTED VOTE:
John McCain 54%
Barack Obama 45%
2008 President
2008 Dem Primary
2008 Rep Primary