Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	364
Rep	174
Ind	0
Tos	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+9	0	+112	0	0	0	20	2	252	+112
Rep	0	0	0	-9	0	-112	22	3	174	-112
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	49	44	4	2

Analysis

Final Entry: I've pretty much decided on this outcome. I may tweak it throughout the day until the polls close in the first states. I eliminated all the toss-ups and switched them to Lean for their respective predicted winners. I tweaked the last of the former toss-ups to >40% for their final predictions. I changed Maryland's prediction to >50%, I changed Arizona's prediction to >40%, I also changed Pennsylvania's confidence to Lean Obama.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 24

Today's Change: I flipped Nebraska's 2nd District to toss-up. Apparently it's really close near Omaha. Omaha for Obama! :-)

I also changed Louisiana's and Mississippi's confidence back to Strong McCain. I imagine the dramatic population drop in those two states in the past 3 years has made the states more Republican. My theory anyways. Polling also suggests a trend toward Strong numbers for McCain in those states.

I switched Maryland's prediction to >60% and I switched Hawaii's prediction to >70% for Obama. I switched Wyoming's prediction to >60% for McCain. I flipped Indiana's prediction to McCain.

Version: 23

Today's Change: I changed Arkansas', Louisiana's, and Mississippi's confidence to Lean McCain from Strong McCain. Polls show the race closing the gap. Obama still leads by an average of about 7 points nationwide. I left 5 states as toss-ups: North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. These are states that have not voted for a Democratic Presidential Candidate since:

Missouri: President Bill Clinton in 1996.
Montana: Governor Bill Clinton in 1992.
North Carolina: Jimmy Carter in 1976.
North Dakota and Indiana: President Lyndon Johnson in 1964.


I raised Oklahoma and Alabama's prediction to >60% for McCain. I lowered Montana, Louisiana, and Georgia's prediction to >40% for McCain. I believe that Ron Paul's presence on the Montana and Louisiana ballots will prevent McCain from winning a majority in those states. Georgia's own former Congresswoman McKinney (G) and former Congressman Barr (L) are also on the ballot in that state (as well as many others) though I assume their showing will be minimal in most places.

Version: 22

Today's Change: I switched Missouri's confidence to Lean Obama. That eliminates the 2004 swing states, all of which went for President Bush in 2004 and now Lean Obama. I also switched Arizona back to a toss-up due to REALLY close polling and due to Democrats out-voting Republicans in large numbers and the Hispanic vote breaking 2-to-1 for Barack Obama.

Version: 21

Today's Change: I switched North Carolina's confidence to Lean Obama. I changed New Hampshire to Strong Obama again. ENORMOUS EARLY VOTING TURNOUT HAS BEEN REPORTED IN EVERY EARLY VOTING STATE. Lines in Georgia and Florida have been reported as being up to 3 hours wait.

Version: 20

Today's Change: I changed Nebraska's 3rd District's electoral vote from >60% to >50%. I changed New Hampshire and Florida to Lean Obama. I switched Arizona and Georgia to Lean McCain and I upgraded California and Rhode Island predictions to >60% for Obama.

Version: 19

Today's Change:...

Ok...
So, I guess I should eat my words. *Opens mouth, inserts foot* LOL!
Arizona, John McCain's home state, the state he represents in the Senate, has become a toss-up based on new polling showing Barack Obama only 2 points behind Senator McCain in that state. No one may really know how happy that makes me. *GEEKS* Ok, so I am starting to think that once all the undecideds are in (Election Day), every state's winner will see >50% of the vote. I believe that, while I thought that 3rd party candidates might have a good showing, I now think that 3rd party candidates probably won't receive much more than 2004. In 2004, all swing states had a majority for their respective winners, not merely a plurality. I also believe that Barack Obama will EASILY do as well as Bush did in all 2004 swing states and likely better. A REAL mandate for the Democratic Party's taking lead in accountability, reform, and REAL change. The magic number of 60 Senators isn't far off.

Oh no, Senator McCain. We've GOT YOU right where we WANT YOU!... IN ARIZONA!!!!!

1 WEEK 'TIL NATIONAL DYSFUNCTION DAY! (ELECTION DAY).

Version: 18

Today's Change: At this point, I'm comfortable with changing West Virginia to Lean McCain. I may eat my words, but for now, it's light blue (*sigh*, light red everywhere else). I changed California's prediction to >50% for Obama from >60%. I also changed Georgia's and West Virginia's prediction to >40% for McCain from >50%.

Version: 17

Today's Change: I switched Indiana's and North Carolina's predictions to >50% for Senator Obama in the end. I changed Ohio from toss-up to Lean Obama. At this point, I believe we have reached the point of no return for Senator McCain. By Election Day, I hope to have switched all 2004 swing states to Lean or Strong Obama.

Version: 16

Today's Change: More toss-ups. That's because McCain is falling further behind and some states that were lean McCain states are now toss-ups. For example, new polls from both West Virginia and Georgia show Obama closing the gap. Of course, in the past few days, the same kind of gap-closures are occuring in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. Election Night is going to RAWK! I also believe that Indiana, based on poll trends, has the kind of momentum that will bring about an Obama victory in that state on Election Night. So, I am switching my prediction for that state to Obama. Well, at least for now.

Today's New Toss-ups: West Virginia and Georgia

Another note: Georgia is 2nd only to Michigan in job losses for September 2008. [It's STILL the economy, stupid!] 3rd Place slot went to Louisiana. Hmm...

Version: 15

Today's Change: West Virginia confidence to lean McCain. I'm guessing that one poll with Obama leading was a fluke (All others have McCain leading by plenty). I changed North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana, and Montana to >40% for the respective winner(s). I changed Oklahoma's prediction from >60% for McCain to >50% in the end.

Later: I switched South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain based on new polling.

Version: 14

Today's Change: I changed Maine entirely to Strong Obama (including the split votes). That's it for now.

Version: 13

Today's Change: I changed Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Montana back to toss-up states. Polls indicate McCain has gained a little bit (a couple of points) in some battleground state polls. Although many of them still favor Obama by a large number. In Montana, new polls show Obama catching up to McCain and only behind by about 4 points. Some North Carolina polls reflect a momentum towards Obama as well. The news just announced that Barack Obama will be taking a 2-day hiatus to visit his ill/dying grandmother in Hawaii. I wonder how this will affect McCain's ability to attack Obama with ugly negative ads.

Version: 12

Today's Change: I switched Arkansas and Louisiana confidence ratings to Strong McCain from Lean McCain. I also changed New Mexico's and Maine's confidence to Strong Obama. Barack's poll momentum doesn't quit.

Version: 11

Today's Change: I switched Texas' and Mississippi's confidence from lean to strong McCain. I switched Nevada's Winner's percentage to >50%. (Obama) and I switched Hawaii's percentage to >60% from >70% for Obama, I switched Michigan, Delaware, and Maryland from >60% to >50%.

Version: 10

Today's Change: Apparently 3rd Party/Independent Candidates must have a stronger showing in North Dakota. I believe the winner will not gain 50% of the vote there either way. I'm predict that all other states will have at least 50% for their respective winners.

Version: 9

Today's change: I flipped West Virginia's confidence back to toss-up and dropped my Alabama prediction down to >50%.

Version: 8

Today's change: I changed Missouri's confidence to lean Obama. Polls indicate that. The battleground states are breaking for Obama pretty much. We'll see how those last 3 usually-red, but now swing states will go.

Version: 7

Today's change: I changed Ohio's confidence to lean Obama and I changed North Dakota's confidence to toss-up. I got wind of a new poll done by Minnesota State University in North Dakota giving Obama a slim 2-point lead with 45%-43%

Version: 6

I changed Indiana (in confidence) from lean McCain to toss-up. My optimism never ceases. *Licks fingertip and holds up to the wind* Ah, definitely have winds from the left. *cough* Yeah, and I switched Florida's confidence from toss-up to leaning Obama. That 2nd District in Nebraska is a toss-up from lean McCain. I can't wait til the final debate.

Version: 5

Momentum for Obama continues. I am starting to think Indiana will likely lean McCain though... polling has been VERY close, but it has yet to lean Obama at all. So, I switched it back to his column. I changed Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia, and Virginia to the lean Obama column. I left Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina as toss-ups. West Virginia is kind of tricky. It was definitely leaning McCain for a long while, but a recent poll has Obama leading McCain 50-42%. West Virginia does have a history of going back and forth for either candidate in some elections. It has gone Democratic several times in the past 40 years.

Version: 4

The newest Gallup Poll gives it to Obama 53-42 if I recall correctly. See last comments. I also switched West Virginia and North Carolina to Obama. Still tossups though. The recent polls I am seeing for Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia all put Obama ahead by at least 1 point. Of course, within the margin of error, but, I still feel momentum snowballing for Barack Obama.

Version: 3

Again, I'm watching momentum move towards Obama. His average lead is 6% in the polls nationwide. McCain is quickly discrediting himself as a viable Presidential Candidate, much less a viable President.

Version: 2

Momentum still seems to be moving in Obama's favor. His point lead is 5-10 average ahead of McBush.

Version: 1

I believe this is a rough conservative estimate for Barack Obama. I, however, believe that once we are through the debates, momentum is likely to shift toward Obama and by November 4, the electoral majority should be very clear for Obama. Economic tides and displeasure with the policies of McBush are my reasons for believing the momentum is shifting.

Version History

25: 2008-11-04 @ 03:47:22 24: 2008-11-03 @ 16:52:41 23: 2008-11-02 @ 22:34:19 22: 2008-10-31 @ 15:19:08 21: 2008-10-29 @ 16:33:55 20: 2008-10-28 @ 09:36:41 19: 2008-10-27 @ 23:59:02 18: 2008-10-26 @ 13:06:17 17: 2008-10-25 @ 05:01:11 16: 2008-10-23 @ 21:19:41 15: 2008-10-22 @ 23:59:23 14: 2008-10-21 @ 04:17:11 13: 2008-10-20 @ 23:24:33 12: 2008-10-19 @ 19:43:19 11: 2008-10-18 @ 17:10:47 10: 2008-10-17 @ 18:17:29 9: 2008-10-16 @ 03:56:14 8: 2008-10-15 @ 11:15:22 7: 2008-10-14 @ 04:05:55 6: 2008-10-13 @ 05:51:14 5: 2008-10-12 @ 01:14:13 4: 2008-10-10 @ 08:24:12 3: 2008-10-05 @ 22:38:32 2: 2008-09-25 @ 18:49:24 1: 2008-09-22 @ 20:59:38 View Version

Member Comments

By: palinode (--CA) 2008-11-04 @ 03:35:54
This is it. For the most part.

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By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 04:34:20
Arizona will definitely be over 50% McCain. Despite the polls, this is his home state -he won there by 70% + in 2002. It will be close, but a clear win for McCain. Missouri, Florida, North Carolina and Indiana are all nail-biters -but you seem very confident about them.

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By: palinode (--CA) 2008-11-06 @ 11:23:45
They haven't graded it yet. But, when they do... I probably have an A. I NAILED THAT SH*T pretty much. If I had switched out Indiana and Missouri, I could have gotten EVERY state right on the winning candidate. BUT, those 2 states have the SAME electoral value. :)

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By: palinode (--CA) 2008-11-07 @ 04:01:08
So, wow, I just found out that Nebraska's 2nd District may ACTUALLY split its electoral votes, for the first time, giving President-Elect Obama its 1 electoral vote due to the overwhelming turnout for Obama in Omaha. And assuming Missouri is given to Senator McCain, the final total will be 365-173. My final prediction wasn't too off from that.

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By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-07 @ 20:45:53
Nebraska EV going to Obama really is something. I had a feeling he might eek it out here due to the ground game. The lines on election morning here were stunning.

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