Final map. If Obama has a good night, then Missouri and Indiana should flip to him. Anything beyond that seems unlikely though not impossible...though admittedly somewhat storybooky.

Unless polling throughout this cycle has been systemically flawed, either because of Bradley effects or incorrect turnout models, or Democratic complacency plagues the electorate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.

This will likely be my final map of the election season. Nevada is being moved from a toss-up state to lean-Obama. North Carolina looks like a true-toss up, and my prediction may hinge on it. It looks like Missouri and Indiana may be just out of reach for Senator Obama.

That said, should these polls hold, should these polls have some semblance of accuracy, then Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.


Order of toss-up states in order most likely to flip to Obama: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.

North Carolina is flipping blue. I may do a quick-change of this depending on the polling that comes out over the weekend.

Order of toss-up states in order most likely to flip to Obama: Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.

Changing Nevada to 50%+ Obama. North Carolina looks close to flipping. I'll consider doing that this weekend depending on what the polls look like.

Order of toss-up states in order most likely to flip to Obama: Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.

Making minor adjustments no the status of non-swing states. Also being a bit more realistic and moving Nevada and Florida back to swing state status.

Again, the list of toss-up states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

With only 11 days left, I'm being convinced that Virginia is strongly in the lean-Obama column. I'm moving Florida and Nevada to Obama because he's maintained a consistent, if small, lead in both those states.


Again, the list of swing states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

With only 11 days left, I'm being convinced that Virginia is strongly in the lean-Obama column. I'm moving Florida and Nevada to Obama because he's maintained a consistent, if small, lead in both those states.


Again, the list of swing states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

Another tweak: moving West Virginia back to lean-Republican due to recent polling, and moving what Chuck Todd calls the "Brokaw" region of the country (MT, SD and ND) to lean-Republican.

Again, the list of swing states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Virginia, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

Just a little tweak: moving New Hampshire and Colorado into the lean-Obama column and making West Virginia a toss up.

Again, the list of swing states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Virginia, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

Just a little tweak: moving New Hampshire into the lean-Obama column and making West Virginia a toss up.

Again, the list of swing states in the order most likely to flip to Obama: Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana.

Going to be a little more optimistic here.

Once again, order of toss-up states flipping: New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Florida/Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana/North Carolina

One quick change: making Nevada a much closer race than one candidate winning more than 50%.

As I said before, order of toss-up states flipping: New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Florida/Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana/North Carolina

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