Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:31

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	318
Rep	220
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	243
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	132

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+6	0	+66	0	0	0	20	2	252	+66
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-66	25	3	220	-66
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
90	48	36	4	2

Analysis

FINAL PREDICTION

OBAMA-BIDEN V MCCAIN-PALIN

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-03 @ 16:01:49
RATIONALE: Polls show Obama-Biden with a good 60% in NY, VT. Although I'm surprised they don't seem to show the same for MA, RI. Pennsylvania - McCain is making a last stand here, and should do well in the Western part of the state - but history is on Obama's side, and he has good advocates there: Gov. Ed Rendell, Hillary Clinton. Virginia - a true victory for the Democrats. Looking at the primary results, Obama carried a great deal more than the traditional Democratic counties. The suburbs of DC and the African-American vote helps. But I don't think it will be a blow-out for the Dems. Veterans and conservatives will still back McCain here. NC: it is amazing that Obama has made this so competitive - clearly the research triangle of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill have helped. Despite Obama's impressive organsiation in this state, I still feel that if local boy John Edwards couldn't help Kerry much here in 2004, then Obama won't carry it. A Dem target for 2012, certainly. Look at the Governorship and Senate races this time. Florida - I was going to give this to McCain. But Hillary has been stumping for Obama here, Obama has the support of northern retirees, African & young voters - not to forget the Latinos (minus the Cubans). This could still go to McCain - but if Bush could only scrape FL in 2000 and 2004 then there is a good chance for Obama - the Bush name counts for a lot down here. COULD STILL FLIP. Indiana - the Dems now have good organisation in this state - and will get a very respectable 2nd place in this traditionally GOP state. OH, MO - you will note that I have these two bellweather states going for Mc. This may seme odd. But I think Obama really does have a problem in southern, rural, Ohio. Ditto MO. Still, he can get a good second place in these two states. Hillary would have roasted McCain in these two states. If this statement holds true then Mc will be the first Republican to win OH - but not take the White House too! ND, MT - traditionally GOP states which some polls show Obama ahead in. But he wins only with 45%. McCain usually wins on over 50%. Not even the marginally more Democratic SD seems to be overly fussed with Obama. So the GOP survive here - no major 3rd parties to split their votes!! NV - polls good to Obama-Biden, unionised workers, latinos. And Obama won the Dem primary in areas of the state not traditionally associated with his party. I don't think the Republicans will score 60% in some states they did last time - because the African-American vote will be higher in the South , and Obama seems to be more competitive than prior Dem candidates in the central parts of the nation.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	36	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	9/33	39/66	59.1%	1	36	268	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	1	100	2	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	31	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	4	2	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	2	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	16/52	0/52	16/104	15.4%	1	-	211	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	1	37	299	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	14/36	50/72	69.4%	3	16	132	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	336/388	190/388	526/776	67.8%

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