Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-06-29 Version:70

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	252
Rep	286
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	207
Rep	216
Ind	0
Tos	115

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+3	0	+21	-2	0	-21	18	2	231	0
Rep	+2	0	+21	-3	0	-21	28	3	265	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
74	43	26	4	1

Analysis

Obama/Richardson vs. McCain/Romney

Popular Vote:
Obama/Richardson: 60, 535, 306 49.5%
McCain/Romney: 59, 312, 370 48.5%
Other Candidates: 2, 445, 870 2.0%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: gporter (R-TN) 2008-06-29 @ 21:31:47
comments?

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-29 @ 21:42:59
I like this one !! I like this one a lot. Would be comical and very possible for Obama to win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college if he were to make some of the southern states closer then 2004 but still not carry them. If Mc Cain picks up Michigan he will likely be the next president. Last Edit: 2008-06-29 @ 21:44:19

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-06-29 @ 21:45:22
There you go Liberalrocks... Obama/Richardson! How do you like that one? lol... He must have made this map for you.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-29 @ 21:47:11
In this instance I would give obama a 60% winning margin in New York and Massachusetts. I would also make Washington state strong democrat as current polling has him way, way up on Mc Cain in that Dukakis state.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-29 @ 21:48:09
God I hate Bill Richardson... that pick for vp without Hillary on the ticket would certaintly mobilize a number of her voters to move to Mc Cain...what a judas he was. Last Edit: 2008-06-29 @ 21:49:25

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-06-29 @ 22:33:49
Hey Liberalrocks! How r u? Have had a bit of a break from this. It's taken me 3 weeks of grieving (lol) but I'm now firmly onboard with Obama. Obvioulsy I'd still vote for Hillary if given the chance but that's history for now. I don't like Richardson either, he's betrayal to the Clintons was awful. The only satisfaction from him was to see him fail dismally as a candidate himself.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-29 @ 22:44:58
Hey demboy hows it going?? Yeah Im still bitter as ever... The only way I would even consider a vote for Barack Hussein Obama is if Hillary is on the ticket, even then it would still be difficult. Well I dont think I will have that problem but I will wait to join team Mc Cain until Obama has decided if he truly cares about party unity. My check book and volunteer time/hours are eagerly waiting his decision. Last Edit: 2008-06-29 @ 22:45:45

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-06-29 @ 22:54:28
Welcome back Demboy. I don't care for Richardson as VP, for different reasons. On paper, he's great. But he's not too good a campaigner, is awkward in debates, and made a few questionable remarks and positions during the primaries. If the 'short list' leaked to MSNBC is accurate, he is not under consideration.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-06-29 @ 23:16:50
Nice map gporter, a possibility.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-06-30 @ 15:50:13
Hum? Richardson... He would be a nice compliment to Obama's ticket... Wasn't he the one in the debates who said gays "chose that lifestyle?" He'd fit in perfectly with the other racist, sexist, anti-semetic, homophobes that surround Obama's. Maybe he can replace Obama at his chuch too...??? :) Bad debator...??? LOL... Last Edit: 2008-06-30 @ 15:51:50

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-30 @ 16:07:46
Maybe he can fit in as well with the homophobic preacher of obama's Mc Clurkin. Great story on obama and gays on Hillary is 44.com I wonder if Obama has ever responded to Gavin Newsom maybe he still doesnt want that association eithier. Last Edit: 2008-06-30 @ 16:23:39

By: the rascal king (D-MA) 2008-06-30 @ 18:32:05
Ok I'lle bite How is obama,racist sexist anti -semetic and homophobic? good map gporter Last Edit: 2008-06-30 @ 18:33:27

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-01 @ 07:54:12
Thx guys! It's nice to be back, although it will take me a while to get into it! You guys are Keen! lol I haven't read or seen anything that portrays Obama as homophobic, racist et al. I agree some of his supporters (not on here) have said some wacky things I guess, but I guess everyone's guilty of that from time to time. I'm feeling more confident in my choice of Obama for President. He is very gracious & eloquent, I have been very impressed with the dignity & humility he has shown towards Hillary. I think he has been more than fair. I hope he picks her still for VP, & will no doubt feel a bit bitter if he doesn't for like a week or two. But in the end it maybe better for Hillary not to be on the ticket, especially if he looses, which I don't think will happen but... I'm surprised how close it still really is. There's no great break to Obama yet, or if there is I haven't seen it. He certainly is looking stronger though. But I say to you Democrats Liberalrocks (oh I notice you've gone independent whoops) do you really want another 4 years of the Republicans? The rest of the world doesn't believe me. Last Edit: 2008-07-01 @ 07:55:25

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-01 @ 07:58:19
I think there's better choices out there than Richardson for VP. I like Evan Bayh (hope that spelling's right) your Senator from Indiana! What's he like? I thought he spoke well for Hillary in Indiana. However I also think if Obama doesn't pick Hillary maybe another woman would be good too. Sebelius from Kansas seems ok.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-07-01 @ 08:45:45
Bayh would be a good pick. It would enforce youth and add exp. - Bayh is on the Armed Services comm. Plus it appears that Indiana is a swing state now! Wouldn't picking Sebelius, or any other woman besides Hill, just piss off Hill supporters?

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-01 @ 10:44:19
Wingindy writes: "Wouldn't picking Sebelius or any other woman besides Hill, just piss off Hill supporters?" Wow, wingindy you are very intuitive. Do you care? lol... You all certainly never gave a damn about Hillary supporters before! But, I would welcome Mr. Obama to pick McCaskill or Sebelius and see what happens. @Demboy- If you support Mr. Obama that is wonderful and you go with the person that you believe in. I will tell you that had the GOP put up someone like Romney or Huckabee I probably would swallow my pride and vote for Obama or simply not vote at all. But, McCain is a different story, because he really does not have the record to prove that he is going to be "McSame" or "McBush." He has a very independent voting record and has a history of working with Democrats, which is why the right-wing of his party HATES him so much. He has the record of "crossing the aisle" that Mr. Obama only promises. He embodies "unity" which again Mr. Obama only promises. The more I watch Mr. Obama and his supporters, the more I begin to realize that it isn't so much the man himself that shows overt sexism, racism, homophobia...etc, but the people that surround him. Now I thinks its fair to judge someone based on the company they keep, in that was done w/ both Clintons and is being done w/ McCain. So wouldn't the same apply to Obama? I disagree with you that he has shown "dignity and humility" towards Clinton. He has been nothing but a condescending, sexist pig towards her, as have Mr. Obama's supporters and the media. From "your likeable enough" to turning away from her handshake at the State of the Union address, one gets a good inclination what he feels about her. I'd question his reaction to her had she been male. Of course I would expect Obama and Clinton to be quite cordial to each other now, in that Mr. Obama needs her voters and Mrs. Clinton needs his money. Its also UNACCEPTABLE that as a Democrat, Mr. Obama refused to speak w/ gay groups and publications in OH and PA. He had no problem advertising in them, but he consistantly declined interviews that Clinton gladly accepted. I know that homosexuality is very taboo amongst black men, but is he not running for POTUS for all people, not just blacks and wealthy whites? Its unacceptable for the head of your outreach to the African American community in South Carolina (the same that George W. Bush had), claim to be an "ex-homosexual" and promote that idea. Its also unaccpetable and embarassing to have to have Mrs. Clinton poke and prod you on Cleveland, Ohio television to denounce an endorsement by Louis Farrakhan. Its also unaccpetable for someone on your campaign, who is your minister of 20 years, to blame the atrocities on 9/11 on US support for Israel. And I agree that yes it would be nice to see him chose her as VP, but that will not happen. I might even reconsider him if he does that, but its doubtful. I don't believe that there is as much tension between Clinton and Obama as their resepective supporters, which is one thing that makes me want to dump the Dems all together this year. He will gain about as many voters from Clinton on the ticket as he will lose. His hard-core supporters of blacks and the far left wing along with his respective donors HATE this woman- absolutely HATE her. She would totally derail his message of change and cut off the big dollars and liberal base that have propelled him to victory.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-07-01 @ 12:07:26
Rascal, I thought about warning you. What a bunch of absolute and utterly ridiculous and baseless garbage.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-01 @ 12:28:40
That's right Wingindy, dismiss it! It's easy to do, isn't it? When you have evidence or information to the contrary, than you produce it. Prove to rascal and demboy that its garbage, "Sweetie."

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-07-01 @ 13:26:20
There is little in your emotional diatribe that contains information to rebut - largely your own feelings and interpretation of events, that I have not heard elsewhere: i.e. Obama treating Clinton as a condescending sexist pig. His remark "your likeable enough" followed a moderator's question re her likability, and her response that he had hurt her feelings. Others may have interpreted the remark as a compliment or a play on Clinton's own lighthearted play on her own femininity. To you, he's a sexist pig. Little to say about that except that its an odd interpretation of a pretty innocuous comment. I don't follw the LBGT issue too much, but see that Obama interviewed with the Advocate, a LBGT website, has met with Gay & Lesbian leaders. Railing against Obama for supposed anti-gay or homophobic connections is pretty funny when McCain is supported by the likes of Hagee and Falwell (whom McCain no longer believe is an agent of intolerance). On Farrakhan, your incorrect description of the debate highlights 1) the insignificance of the exchange to anything but an empty attempt by Hill to score points, which was rightfully promptly forgotten by everyone in America except you; and 2) your tendency to sieze upon these kind of events, widely recognized as unsuccessful and empty, and repeat them for months when no one could give a shit less, and then to repeat them incorrectly, at that! Obama had already denounced Farrakhan prior to the debate. Hillary acknowledged that he had denounced Farrakhan, but thought he should reject him as well. Obama's response was to say there was nothing to reject, and he had already denounced, but if it would make Hillary feel better, he rejected as well. The issue, if anyone could possibly claim there was one to begin with, was resolved in all of 30 seconds and did not take much in the way of prodding by Clinton. You, however, still jump up and down about it 9 months later like it ever had any meaning to begin with. Last Edit: 2008-07-01 @ 13:36:41

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-07-01 @ 13:35:23
Well, through the whole campaign I have been supportive of people's right to choose and support candidates of their choosing. I really do not care for the demonizing of Obama or Clinton supporters. I have been there and done that in '68 and it got me Richard Nixon, George Wallace and Watergate. I support any of CLinton's supporters who vote for McCain -who is the one Republican candidate that some Dems could vote for even if it was Hilary as nominee. Yet, McCain has his own problems with his own base because of the inconsistent Republican message that he has supported. In the end it is too easy to dismiss someone you do not agree with-it is far more difficult to reason your point of view with those who have closed their minds whether Obamaton or Clintonistas. IN the end both parties will need forward thinking leadership to be able to tackle the manifold concerns and challenges facing our country. On this the independence week I urge all to vote in November for whomever you feel can get that job done... I look back and when I voted on Feb. 5th my feeling was Obama made the better case as a Democrat to get elected...after a month in March through the end of the primary season the Clinton end game was brillant. If she had been that way in the beginning she probably would have had the nomination easily. Why did she not win....there are many reasons and I do not understand why some were there... why was the media so anti CLinton, it has sickened me. Why is there still so much sexism even more than racism in my section of the country? Why did Clinton make the strategic mistakes she made and not contest some states more than she did.... If I had the energy I might write a book about this campaign...I know there will be many. As a moderate Democrat I will vote for Obama but there are reasons to vote for McCain and some reasons not to vote for either of them... On to October and the real election!

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-01 @ 15:18:38
That was no "diatribe," wingindy... I don't think that my interpretation of events is too far out of the mainstream. We all watched those debates and we have all paid close attention to this race and the way in which Mrs. Clinton was treated by Mr. Obama, his supporters, and the media. It is a FACT that the general consensus is that sexism played a terrible role in this primary to the benefit of Mr. Obama. For an intelligent person as yourself, its incomprehensible that you can't identify sexism or admit that there was legitimate sexism from a multitude of sources. Now it appears that the only people that can't admit that FACT are people that have blind devotion to Mr. Obama, such as yourself, or people who want to side-step the issue for political posturing such as Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi. It's easy for you to attack my interpretation (which is probably the majority opinion) and not come forward with any explanation for Mr. Obama's behavior, the behavior of his supporters, or the bias Clinton encountered in the media. Its also very convenient to then counter with an attack on Mr. McCain, simply because he is a Republican and the Republican party is generally associated with more overt chauvinism, homophobia, etc... The problem in your argument is that Mr. McCain does not belong to the party that is purported to be a symbol or beacon of tolerance. Mr. Obama belongs to the Democratic party, which should stand up for people like myself, and as a member of the Democratic party it is fair game to call him/his campaign/his supporters, etc. on the carpet when their behavior/actions towards women, gays, jews, etc. are in poor taste. Last Edit: 2008-07-01 @ 15:20:54

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-01 @ 15:37:14
Ok, Wow Where to begin, Why not Iowa. The media took a likeing to obama from day one but saw Hillary as the all powerful inevitable candidate that they needed to assist obama in taking down. Then we move to New Hampshire the comment your "likeable enough" was very condesending and many women perceived John Edwards and Obama were tag teaming her. Voters in New Hampshire are very independent minded and dont appreciate having the media determine who's crowned. South Carolina again was the media spinning comments and creating headlines. The entire month of February Obama was not required to outline any position besides his opposition to the war and his various slogans. I maintain Hillary was held to a higher standard during this time. It wasnt until Ohio and Texas that a variety of issues were discussed not just the ones that obama got to pick and choose the primaries that followed forced obama to deal with the rigors of a campaign and answer for positions and his background. Unfortunately Hillary peaked at the end when it was too late. Many liberal states voted early and conservative states that worked in her favor came later. The caucus system was a total sham. Obama supporters packed the caucuses and many of Clintons elderly voters were intimidated and or could not show up as it was at a specific time-unlike a primary where one can vote all day or via absentee ballot. I can forgive a lot of things in this campaign but the medias blant bias I cannot. I must say I have to agree Mc Cain is a moderate democrats can vote for as Doniki and Dnul suggest and I will be voting for him because at the end of the day I know he is qualified to lead us in a dangerous situation I dont feel comfortable with obama.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-01 @ 15:43:44
A total Double standard A token Black candidate with no accomplishments experience or resume. Again I maintain as others have been attacked for-Had he been a white young man with the same level of experience his message would not have had the impact it did however eloquent that man may have been people would not have seen him as standing out or different from the pack. He would be judged purely on his experience and associations and would not have gotten the media coverage thus very unlikely he would have made it out of Iowa over Senators such as Biden and Dodd and the Clinton name.

By: the rascal king (D-MA) 2008-07-01 @ 19:41:16
doni you point to the fact that Obama didn't do an interveiw with Gay and lesbien magazine as evidence for Obama being homophobic, but doesn't the evidence sugest otherwise. the human rights campagin gave obama an 89 out of 100 as it relates to issues that concern gay and lesbein Americans. If Obama is homophobic then why did he partcipate in the LOGO gay rights debate. " Obama on gay rights"... this is what national gay and lesbien task force,and the chicgo daily tribune had to say about Obama. "Barack Obama has thrown his hat into the 2008 presidential race. Barack Obama seems to be getting liberals all fired up because he is young, energetic and represents change. But how does Barack Obama stand on gay and lesbian rights? This profile examines where Barack Obama stands issues of importance to gay and lesbian voters. Barack Obama's Political Background: Barack Obama was elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1996. He served for eight years and ran for United States Senate in 2004. His speech at the Democratic National Convention that year brought America's attention to this liberal political newcomer. He won the election easily over arch-conservative Alan Keyes. Barack Obama in the Illinois Senate: Barack Obama was known as a liberal who was not afraid to build bridges across party lines during his term in the Illinois State Senate. He gained a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood for his support of family planning and abortion rights legislation. Barack Obama and Gay Rights in Illinois: Barack Obama supported gay rights during his Illinois Senate tenure. He sponsored legislation in Illinois that would ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Barack Obama in the United States Senate: Every two years the Human Rights Campaign, the largest national gay and lesbian organization, issues a scorecard for members of the Senate based on their sponsorship and voting on key issues of importance to gay and lesbian citizens. Barack Obama scored 89 out of 100% in the 2006 scorecard. Here's how HRC rated Barack Obama: Barack Obama on Hate Crimes: Barack Obama co-sponsored legislation to expand federal hate crimes laws to include crimes perpetrated because of sexual orientation and gender identity. Employment Non-Discrimination: Barack Obama supports the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and believes it should be expanded to include sexual orientation and gender identity. Don't Ask, Don't Tell - Gays in the Military: Barack Obama believes we need to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy and allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. His campaign literature says, "The key test for military service should be patriotism, a sense of duty, and a willingness to serve." Gay & Lesbian Adoption: Barack Obama believes gays and lesbians should have the same rights to adopt children as heterosexuals. Barack Obama and Gay Marriage/ Civil Unions: Although Barack Obama has said that he supports civil unions, he is against gay marriage. In an interview with the Chicago Daily Tribune, Obama said, "I'm a Christian. And so, although I try not to have my religious beliefs dominate or determine my political views on this issue, I do believe that tradition, and my religious beliefs say that marriage is something sanctified between a man and a woman." Barack Obama did vote against a Federal Marriage Amendment and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. He said he would support civil unions between gay and lesbian couples, as well as letting individual states determine if marriage between gay and lesbian couples should be legalized. "Giving them a set of basic rights would allow them to experience their relationship and live their lives in a way that doesn't cause discrimination," Obama said. "I think it is the right balance to strike in this society." Sources: Chicago Daily Tribune, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force" the fact that obama wouldn't do an interveiw with a gay rights magzazine pails in comparison to obama's record on gay rights, given all this how can you continue to claim that obama is homophobic. Last Edit: 2008-07-01 @ 20:22:30

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-01 @ 22:41:07
Just because hes pro-gay rights on paper doesnt mean he is not homophobic. Actions speak louder then positions and talk. I judge him partially on the homophobic people he chooses to surround himself with. Mc Clurkin and several african american ministers. These associations are expected from a republican NOT a democrat. Furthermore for a republican John Mc Cain still is not hard right on gay rights. He's no neo con. Obama all you get with him period is talk and slogans.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-07-02 @ 02:46:34
McCain supported a 2005 state initiative to "change Arizona's Constitution to ban gay marriages and deny government benefits to unmarried couples", and is against civil unions. He also supports the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy, calling gay troops "an intolerable risk". He opposed legislation to protect gay people from job discrimination or hate crimes, and voted for DOMA. He also solicited endorsements from the likes of Hagee and Falwell. If you don't think Obama's connections fit with the spirit of the Democratic party, perhaps you should support the Greens on this issue. To attack Obama as a homophobe and then proclaim your support of John McCain is inconsistent. It indicates to me that you are not, in fact, as interested in gay issues as you claim. Last Edit: 2008-07-02 @ 02:48:14

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-02 @ 09:15:36
First, I have to say that rascal gave the BEST argument I have EVER seen from an Obama supporter in his above statement. I have asked 500 times (est.) for Mr. Obama's positions on issues along w/ just a few legislative accomplishments for the past 6 months and NO one has been able to come up w/ anything, but rascal did it in about 10 minutes. I think Rascal and Wingindy should trade professions. Rascal, you'd make a decent attorney. Thank you for that information, rascal and you have convinced me to take another look at Mr. Obama in his relation to the gay community. Now, that said I am well aware that Mr. Obama's record does not differ from Mrs. Clinton's record on gay issues. Mr. McCain is by far the more conservative candidate on the issue, which we should expect in that he is the Republican candidate, though he was one of the few Reps to vote against the Marriage Ammendment. My argument remains that if the Democratic party is the party of tolerance and inclusion, than why does Mr. Obama surround himself and include in his campaign people that do not represent tolerance or inclusion? I know why! His base of support is black and blacks are traditionally very conservative on gay issues, which is why his African-American outreach preaches that homosexuality can be "cured." This is the same reason that Mr. Obama has broken another campaign "promise" and is advocating the increase in Bush's failed "faith based initiative programs." It simply panders to socially conservative, yet Demcoratic blacks, that put him where he is today. But wingindy is correct on one thing: I am not interested in gay issues as much as the average gay person and if you have taken the time to read through some of my comments you will understand that. I simply do not care about issues like gay marriage. That doesn't preclude me from calling out inconsistancies on the part of Mr. Obama when I see or hear them. Personally I believe that the candidate for the gay community, was Mrs. Clinton!- NO Doubt! Though I didn't support her because of that. Now, I'm left with a two choices that I don't feel strongly either way about and am simply chosing the lesser of two evils in Mr. McCain. Last Edit: 2008-07-02 @ 09:16:27

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-02 @ 13:12:56
Again actions and accomplishments speak louder then words and postions for me- Since neither candidate has a record of actually doing something for the gay community. The candidate for gay community clearly was Mrs Clinton since she is gone--it really doesnt matter to me at this point as I dont think eithier candidate would do anything to improve equality Obama is all talk but again no accomplishments. So again still going with Mc Cain... Last Edit: 2008-07-02 @ 13:15:00

By: the rascal king (D-MA) 2008-07-02 @ 20:07:31
doni lol thanks I don't think I will be an attorney I don't know what I would like to do for career, I should probably go to school for something but I never was good in school, I'll wish i could write movies or be in a crappy band as a career but there is phat chance i could do that for a living. one of these days I will have to get off my townie ass ,make something off my self and go see the world. doni even though you said that you don't vote on gay issues nessarly, your wrong when you say he is homophobic because his record as state senator and senator show otherwise. liberal rocks your right actions do speak louder then words, its unfair to say that obama is homophobic when all of his actions say otherwise. the words of of few rev's that suport obama don't reflect his actions or his view's. Barack Obama on Hate Crimes: Barack Obama co-sponsored legislation to expand federal hate crimes laws to include crimes perpetrated because of sexual orientation and gender identity. Employment Non-Discrimination: Barack Obama supports the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and believes it should be expanded to include sexual orientation and gender identity. Don't Ask, Don't Tell - Gays in the Military: Barack Obama believes we need to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy and allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. His campaign literature says, "The key test for military service should be patriotism, a sense of duty, and a willingness to serve." Gay & Lesbian Adoption: Barack Obama believes gays and lesbians should have the same rights to adopt children as heterosexuals. Barack Obama and Gay Marriage/ Civil Unions: Although Barack Obama has said that he supports civil unions, he is against gay marriage. In an interview with the Chicago Daily Tribune, Obama said, "I'm a Christian. And so, although I try not to have my religious beliefs dominate or determine my political views on this issue, I do believe that tradition, and my religious beliefs say that marriage is something sanctified between a man and a woman." Barack Obama did vote against a Federal Marriage Amendment and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. He said he would support civil unions between gay and lesbian couples, as well as letting individual states determine if marriage between gay and lesbian couples should be legalized. of course, obama has the suport of alot of black conservative Christians, he is tha first African American nominee for either party to be running for president.as wingindy pointed out if your going to say that obama is anti gay because of the pastors he associates with wouldn't you also have to conclude that John Mccain also is anti gay because of the pastor he associates with(falwell Hagee). I'm not asking you guys to suport senator obama but based on the evidence he is not homophobic in fact based on his record quite the oposite is true.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-02 @ 23:31:39
Rascal I respectfully disagree these for the most part are just positions he is taking not actual accomplishments. Mc Cain is not anti-gay he supports letting the individual states decide the marriage issue and opposed Bush's constitutional ammendment banning gay marriage when it came up for a vote. He also supports certain domestic partner civial union type arrangements by consenting adults. The candidate for gay community clearly was Mrs Clinton since she is gone--it really doesnt matter to me at this point as I dont think eithier candidate would do anything to improve equality Last Edit: 2008-07-02 @ 23:36:13

By: the rascal king (D-MA) 2008-07-02 @ 23:36:21
Auggghhhhhhh!!! LIBERAL ROCK'S I LOVE YOU BRO!!! but why can't you just admit that Rascal King is right and liberal rocks is wrong and Barack Obama is not a homophobe.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-02 @ 23:46:06
Well all I can say is that Im a gay man and I feel he is. He has taken the postions he has taken for political reasons and pandering to the gay vote as all democrats do.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-02 @ 23:47:56
Many gay men also belong to the puma organization and the many groups found on www.justsaynodeal.com www.pumaparty/www.pumapac.com

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-03 @ 10:35:22
Rascal gives a VERY compelling argument, which is by far better than anyone else has given and I think with respect to him, we take his information into consideration. Maybe rascal is right and Obama in not at all homophobic, which in all likelihood he probably is NOT. I would suspect that in representing Chicago he came across plenty of homosexuals. That is though, NO excuse to have associations on your campaign that show blatant homophobia, racism, anti-semitism and sexism, especially as a Democrat. We expect it from the GOP, not the Democrats. But, I think I'm a fair person and I'm willing to let Mr. Obama explain himself, his positions and his associations further. Last Edit: 2008-07-03 @ 10:37:52

By: CR (--MO) 2008-07-03 @ 20:36:20
You know I don't think its very fair that the "its expected from the GOP" to be all those negative things. The GOP has a long history of not being a racist party. Opposition to slavery, passage of the 13, 14, and 15 amendments, opposition to Jim Crow laws, being labeled Black Republicans, supporting the Civil Rights Act (and ending the Dixcrat filibuster against it). Democrats have a history of being hard on black Americans. We supported the Women's Right to vote in the 1920's. Many of us do have some issues with homosexuality, but that is a religious issue dealing with marriage. We certainly don't want to be like Iran and stone people to death. And we are not anti-semitists, in fact the Republicans have a long history of complete support for Israel, many again on religious grounds. So I'm not trying to be a jerk here and yes we have our extremists just as the Left does. But we are not this horrid intolerant party that the media and the Left makes us out to be. We may look at improving things for people in a different way from liberals but that doesn't mean we don't care. Phew, I feel better. Hope everyone has a great 4th of July! :) Last Edit: 2008-07-03 @ 20:37:03

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-04 @ 08:03:08
I'm disappointed that Hillary did not get up Guys so I understand your pain however I don't understand the animosity. It's time to bury the hatchet & take this great opportunity to get rid of the Republicans from the White House & elect a Democrat, one that in Obama, shares many of your ideals, way more than McCain ever will in my opinion, & I know you know this in your heart. Time heals all wounds. Do you really want another Republican in the White House after Bush? Why should the party be rewarded for their failed policies, delivering America to the brink of recession? Over 4,000 young American lives snuffed out in a futile war ignoring the real war on terror to be held against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Watching McCain's so called independence get lost in the warm embrace of Bush these last few months has clarified things for me. Every time I hear him speak he sounds tired & worn out, & dare I say it just a bit out of date, & behind the times. Change can be a wonderful thing but with McCain it will certainly be more of the Republican status quo.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-04 @ 08:08:39
I like your spirit ConservRep but the Republicans have not done these things for a long time. The party to me has swung hard right & the general tone of the party is not one of inclusion any more. They need a good drubbing so they can come back to the Centre again. It's time for a reality check.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-04 @ 08:14:36
I know it's early days & things could change but let's celebrate the fact that McCain is no where near winning states he thought winnable such as: New York down 23 points (I honestly can't even think he thought he was competitive here, it ain't been Republican for quite some time). Connecticut down 20 points (great result) California down 19 points Washington down 17 points Wisconsin down 11 points Minnesota down 10 points New Hampshire down 10 points New Jersey down 10 points Oregon down 7 points Iowa down 7 points Pennsylvania down 6 points Michigan down 6 points etc based on the average of last 3 polls on this site, head to head vote. Good times people. Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 07:50:56

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-07-04 @ 12:07:57
Good time to be a Democrat, agreed. We are no longer on the brink of recession, however. We are in one. Happy 4th to all.

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-07-04 @ 13:31:42
Agreed. I was in the states from 19.06 to 02.07 and saw all those really sour faces as the gas pumps and in the grocery stores. This is not a good time to be the party in power in the WH.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-04 @ 15:35:01
Well wingindy and I can finally agree on a few things... Yes, Good time to be a Dem and no on can tell me this is not a recession (especially in OH and MI)... The market has finally hit "bear" territory with NO signs of improving. It gonna be rough... $150 crude this coming week or next??? This week!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-05 @ 07:52:02
I don't mean to be mean but I find it hard to think Michigan will go Republican this fall as per this map, not in a recession, no way. This once great state has probably suffered most under this Republican administration. Although let's face it the queue is long & competitive. Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 07:53:58

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-05 @ 07:59:13
Liberalrocks there is no doubt in my mind that if we want progress for our community you need to back Obama over McCain. There is no way the Republicans will ever deliver for us. You can back them on economics (although after this administration's record that's a laugh) but definitely not on equlity for Gays & Lesbians. This party has pandered to the religious right for more than a decade, using us disgracefully as a wedge at every turn. For all of us please don't do it! (Hillary would not be impressed!) As they said in Will & Grace - Log Cabin Republicans - now that's just weird! Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 08:19:40

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-05 @ 14:42:31
You dont understand the animosity? Come on you followed this race you saw the disgusting double standard and the bias media! The fact that an unqualified inexperienced homophobic token black candidate was nominated over a better qualified women with a resume of actual accomplishments. No I am done with the democratic party- and Im not the only one. www.justsaynodeal.com--PUMA This is no longer about Hillary its about what the democratic party has done. Mc Cain is a moderate maverick and no one will tell me different Ive studied his voting record and bi-partisan bills in the senate. He takes common sense approaches and will NOT be another Bush term no matter how many obama fanatics try to use that to get our votes. Ive made my two sizeable contributions to John Mc Cains campaign already and signed up for Citizens for Mc Cain I will phone bank and do what ever I can this fall to elect Mc Cain. I will take my passion and energy the same energy I used to elect Hillary and put it into Johns campaign. It will be a cold day in HELL when I vote for Barack Hussein Obama to be my president- Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 14:59:22

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-05 @ 14:46:42
I cant Forgive this--and I sure as hell wont Forget--- I did not leave the democratic party, it left me!! My values and what I want in a president. It will be a cold day in HELL when I vote for Barack Hussein Obama to be my president- No the Dixie Chicks put it best: "Im not ready to make nice--" Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 14:50:08

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-07-05 @ 15:35:34
God, get over it and get on with it. If Hillary can, then so can you. Or do you think you are so much more important and wiser than she?

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-07-05 @ 16:17:27
No, but I have an opinion of my own-- and I dont need his help to pay off my debts-- Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 16:19:58

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-05 @ 16:58:58
I don't think we really know what Hillary is feeling/thinking right now??? I'm sure she isn't happy. I think Bill is even less happy... But, I have to say that I have become friends with a few staffers that I worked with in Ohio and I don't think that Hillary is "over it." She got a raw deal from her party, the media, even her husband. Whether or not she "likes" Barack Obama or whether or not she "wants him to win" I'd prefer not to speculate about... Hillary is NOT a stupid woman!!! She knows that she needs Barack, very badly right now, to pay off a record campaign debt and she is doing what she can to do that. In return he needs her 18 million voters or at least a chunk of them and it appears that he has at least 53% of them (CNN) at this time, which is progress. Though he should notice that its a consistant number of just under 25% that he probably won't get. I would venture to say that if she was "over it" we would probably see more from her husband and a bit more campaigning on both their parts for Obama. I do think she cares about the Dem party, or at least its fundamental ideals, therefore she will do what she feels is necssary for Obama. I have a feeling she and her husband would be working a lot harder if she was going to be VP, which they must know she does NOT have a chance of attaining. Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 17:02:04

By: me (I-GA) 2008-07-05 @ 18:26:39
agreed.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-07-05 @ 18:35:47
I agree with Donki80-very well stated. I would offer one caveat-the main campaign begins in post GOP convention time in mid September. If we do not see Hilary and Bill campaigning then -we will know your answer. I expect to see her campaigning in Penn, MI, Ohio and a few other states which might be important...I expect to see Bill even less... I hate to say it but he mistakes in the campaign were the #3 reason she lost after Media bias towards Obama (big time) and anti female (big too)...then somewhat lower down his several mistakes which Republicans jumped on as much as Obama and others still running at the time. In the end her end game was terrific, her early game was good-she did great in debates too...but the campaign post 2/5 lacked insight for some reason. Many say now that there was a battle inside for which way to go and they lost one crucial month...sad if true.

By: me (I-GA) 2008-07-05 @ 18:44:24
i like obama more then clinton,i wont lie about that. but she did deserve to win. she faught hard,(against obama AND the media) and almost did it.plus, the clinton supporters cheered her on more than obama supprters 4 him.she also spent more money on campaigning.i feel sorry that she came so close but remained yet so far.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-07-05 @ 20:01:59
demboy: We've swung far right and need to come back to the center - how about you guys come back to the center from the far left? We put the first woman on the Supreme Court and the first black. The current administration has had more minorties in the cabinet than Clinton did. You claim we are in the hands of religious crazies, I say your in the hands of the secular humanists. Inclusive? Wow I bet Joe Lieberman and Zell Miller feel real included in the Democratic party. Parties are about standing up for certain principles. I know plenty of intolerant Democrats, disagree on one issue and you're out. Big deal, join the party or support the guy that best represents you. As for our economy pretty hard to have a recession when we still have economic growth. Is it a down turn, yes, is it difficult, yes but its not as bad as it could be. Gas and food are a problem. We won't drill for one and clean ethanol usage started the other. Maybe my area - Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, etc. - isn't doing as badly as Ohio and Michigan but the main problems - energy costs, food prices, and the housing situation - can hardly all be blamed on Bush and the GOP. Some yes, all no. Anyone see that Iraq just meet 15 of the 18 benchmarks that where so important to have and are also engaged in their own military operations. Good time to be a Democrat, whatever. Bad time to be an incumbent if you ask me. Again, phew, glad I got that out of my system. I hope everyone had a safe 4th of July.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-05 @ 22:22:24
I saw on the tv today 32% of Democrats are not going to vote because Hillary lost the nomination. Maybe this will hand the election to McCain & the Republicans by default. How sad. I love Hillary but this election is more important than just 1 person. I'm sure it has to be said in hindsight that unfortunately her organisation made many mistakes that cost her the nomination. I agree with some of the statements made above but I firmly believe that Obama out campaigned her - especially in the beginning. She came very strongly at him in the end but unfortunately it was too little too late. Her campaign should never have given up the caucus states where Obama built is unlosable lead. Last Edit: 2008-07-05 @ 22:23:57

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-05 @ 22:27:20
Sorry CR but Joe Lieberman was defeated by his own constituency who disagreed with his stance on Iraq. That's the way it goes. Being disendorsed has happened to many people in politics. That's life. He still went on to win as an Independent so I guess he had the last laugh there. For now anyway. I think the Democrats are inclusive - how else do you explain the rise & rise of the conservative Democrats in the south at your party's expense?

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-07-06 @ 05:56:48
If Romney is Mc's VP pick, then yes - I can certainly believe this.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-07-06 @ 11:59:40
The South was Democratic before and we've seen this sort of registration swing all the time. In fact there where more registered Democrats in the 1980's when Reagan and Bush 41 landslided into the White House. Some states don't even register their voters with a party - Missouri doesn't. And its not a requirement for voting so how many people just don't register. Its a long way to November. Both McCain and Obama are in for some ups and downs. That is the way elections have always been. Whoever wins in November, America will endure. I prefer McCain but I'll live either way. Last Edit: 2008-07-06 @ 12:00:00

By: me (I-GA) 2008-07-06 @ 12:08:32
it is a long way to november.no one in the right mind can doubt that it is gonna be close.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-07-06 @ 12:10:34
A long way to November , its a long way to November - sung to the tune of its a long way to Tipperary! All together now! I imagone if all Clinton supporters supported Obama he would be ahead at this time by double figures...a good % of those who voted for her maybe even 20% will not vote for Obama and maybe half of those will vote for mccain...maybe... Its a long way to Noveemmbrrrr Its a long way to Noveeeembeeerr! The economy has plummeted for a variety of reasons of which gasoline is one and as CR mentioned ethanol high priced food is another...cause-both parties to blame. Solutions, we want solutions! I as a Joe Liebermann supporter (yes I sent him money and many of my family Democrats voted for him), and a Zeb Miller supporter, I am still voting for Obama....I feel included in the party except on a few issues... I support a total comprehensive energy solution renewables-wind solar plus others ethanol from grass (easily done up here in MN) nuclear drill like crazy here in the USA and offshore clean coal also conservation we water lawns in Nevada for what? we do not get 80 mpgallon for why? we waste energy for what? yes many issues and all part of solution which might not impact the environment half as much as our wasteful use now....solutions! Its a long way to noveemberr! Last Edit: 2008-07-06 @ 13:20:38

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-07-06 @ 14:02:41
CR says: "We've swung far right and need to come back to the center." WTF??? lol... Doniki chokes while swallowing his 2mg Xanax bar! As much as I don't want to agree, I have to agree that Hillary did run a poor campaign. Obama out campaigned her. Yes! She never expected competition from Barack Obama, but from John Edwards! She has seen, first hand, that when Dems win, they win as moderates, or at least they position themselves as moderates to win. Liberal Democrats don't win. Hillary's problem wasn't simply the caucus states. Her problem is/was that she has fallen out of line w/ her party. Over her tenure in the senate she has produced a moderate voting record and done a lot of reaching across the aisle, just like McCain. The policies (war) of the current administration have thrust the Dem base far to the left of the Clintons. Those people that were voting in the primaries and caucuses were your more liberal Dems and they punished her for her moderation, including her war vote! There was a lot of loyalty to Bill Clinton, but there was also a backlash against Bill Clinton's fiasco's as president and some of his more moderate positions, which liberal took out on Hillary. Bill Clinton was never popular amongst the liberal base of the Dem party, they only settled for him because they weren't going to vote for a Rep. The Dems wanted more change than what another perceived Clinton term would offer and they punished Hillary for it. No one will ever convince me that she hasn't worked hard or didn't deserve that nomination, because she did! She might not deserve the presidency, but the Dems owed the Clinton's that nomination because there has been no one else that has stood for progressive values other than the Clintons. No one has stood against the GOP and persevered the way the Clintons have- certainly not Kerry, Gore or Pelosi! Also, no one has raised the mass sums of money the Clintons have for fellow Democrats- at least not until Barack Obama came along. I still would not expect too much campaigning out of the Clinton's for Barack Obama. Also, so far the number of Clinton supporters who won't back Obama or will not vote hasn't seemed to have a negative impact on him, therefore, we really don't matter. He has built up a new base and constituency. He does not need the old one.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-07-06 @ 21:28:52
Bring on November! McCain's had it. That's my gut feeling anyway. Obviously anything can change but unlikely in a recession or on the brink of one. It's time for someone else to have a go. Bring on Change!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	28/36	14/36	42/72	58.3%	1	442	308	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	13/36	41/72	56.9%	1	442	224	T	300
2012 President	50/56	34/56	84/112	75.0%	1	469	630	T	760
2010 Senate	28/37	13/37	41/74	55.4%	5	172	375	T	456
2008 President	47/56	27/56	74/112	66.1%	70	128	734	T	1,505
2008 Senate	29/33	13/33	42/66	63.6%	3	108	316	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	9/52	0/52	9/104	8.7%	1	-	235	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	28/49	4/49	32/98	32.7%	3	-	118	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	91	1	T	167
2006 Governor	19/36	6/36	25/72	34.7%	1	25	310		312
Aggregate Predictions	269/394	127/394	396/788	50.3%

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