Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-08-06 Version:6

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	328
Rep	210
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	275
Rep	150
Ind	0
Tos	113

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	0	+76	0	0	0	20	2	252	+76
Rep	0	0	0	-7	0	-76	24	3	210	-76
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
77	47	24	4	2

Analysis

I know that many of the conservatives on this site have said that they know a lot of Clintonites who are refusing to vote for Obama. I've personally spoke to a couple of conservatives who can't stomach McCain and won't vote for him. The polls right nnow may but about as useless as any polls in recent memory.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberallover (-NY) 2008-08-30 @ 17:40:21
I'm with you. Loyalty to country. This is our time!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-08-30 @ 17:56:24
Yawn. Country First Mc Cain/Palin 2008. (lol Clinton 2012)

By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2008-08-30 @ 21:42:38
A lot of people talk a good talk when they are out in public. What will they do when they are alone in the voting booth? Radicals will almost always vote the way they speak. So 20% of the dems and 20% of the reps will do exactly what they say will do. And proudly proclaim it. But what will the 60% of the middle do? This election gives many people fits for many different reasons that they don't like to talk about in mixed company. For example, a black man with a different sounding name. A older white man who has had some health issues. His female VP candidate who hasn't had any international or national experience. Latent racism, ageism, and sexism will come in to play. And that is unfortunate. And that is why I will continue to be suspicious of the polls right through election day.

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2008-09-02 @ 12:59:08
Indiana isn't going Republican....

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-09-02 @ 13:12:06
Is that a lapse or something? Surely a Republican is quite confident about keeping Indiana. And I don't see Kansas as a toss-up, either. Probably a mistake.

By: H John Heinz (I-CA) 2008-09-05 @ 19:23:33
Indiana isn't going Democrat.... Btw - thanks for your response on my map. I'll have round three posted next Friday.

By: H John Heinz (I-CA) 2008-09-05 @ 19:24:55
Your map btw is probably an 'Obama best case scenario' unless something develops that destroys Palin. I simply cannot see Obama winning Missouri (where my father is from) even if he is from a border state. And Indiana? If Obama wins Indiana then he's probably on a Ronald Reagan run, and I just don't see that happening.

By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-09-05 @ 19:46:35
jlorenzen, I like your map. Almost identical to my current map, except IN. Why do you think IN will go Democratic? Will the fact that Obama is from IL help him in nearby IN? It can help with name recognition and people who either move between the states or have friends and relatives between the states. In New Jersey, where I live, it is a much more liberal state than it would be otherwise because of the influence from New York City, and the same movement of people between the two. Nobody mentioned unemployment was up to 6.1% today, the highest in five years. That will also factor into this election, as the trend is not improving.

By: Gceres (R-CA) 2008-09-05 @ 19:53:16
Not a big factor and I'll tell you why. 6.1% unemployment though not great is historically still extremely low...7.0% used to be considered excellent...really low unemployment wasn't ever expected until the mid-90's when it dipped below 5% for a while. And compared to nations like France it's fantastic (I'm sure FrenchEd can comment on that). As an 18 year resident of New Jersey, I will attest that it is extremely liberal these days and likely will get more so...the Republican Party of New Jersey is one of the most liberal Republican Parties in the country btw.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-09-06 @ 04:13:16
Well, we currently have an official 7.2% unemployment rate and it's considered quite low. In recent years we routinely had it in double digits. And here in France "taking a second job" is something I NEVER heard of (I'm upper middle-class, but I don't think I'm THAT out of touch). A real unemployment rate of 6.1% would be just thrilling in France. Sarkozy promised 5% but I don't know anyone who was stupid enough to believe him. If Gceres tells you a state is Solid Democratic then it is. Trust me on this one.

By: Ogre Mage (D-WA) 2008-09-21 @ 05:45:46
Obama winning IN, OH, MO and VA? That is really stretching it.

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-09-21 @ 07:06:23
Yep, Indian isn't going Dem. Like VA, Obama will boost the Dem vote there - but it won't be enough to clinch the state.

By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2008-09-22 @ 12:21:13
I agree Hillbilly, this map was created in early August. Ohio is looking less likely as is Missouri. I'm not giving up yet on VA or IN. This is a different election with very strange dynamics. Obama should be walking away with the election and he's not. McCain should not be in a virtual tie in VA and IN, but he is. Polls may be missing a lot of things.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-09-22 @ 19:46:03
On that I agree with you jlorenzen. I think the polls are missing a lot of things. I don't know exactly where this election is going (though I have a private opinion that I'll share in the final days of the campign) but I do know that its going to be very different. How different? Well we'll just have to wait for November to find out.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-09-23 @ 00:03:12
There have been a number of recent polls showing Indiana very close, despite McCain's rising margins in a number of other usually red states. So yes, ther is something afoot here in my state. The ground forces here for Obama are strong - those for McCain are nonexistent. So don;t write off Indiana!

By: filliatre (R-FRA) 2008-09-23 @ 10:18:08
Polls aren't missing something. Demographic trends are here: NM, NV, Arizona, Colorado and Virginia are growing (Leip's) redder, Indiana and NC not yet. The problem is when the state reaches his tipping point. And with 2 third-party candidates grasping about 2%, some states can swing easily and many call it a "surprise". In this map, Missouri in red is the main mistake and Kansas and SC as toss-ups.

By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2008-11-03 @ 22:51:59
Well, the end is in sight. As you can see, this map was created in early August and I stuck with it through the roller coaster ride that was September and October. While I may be wrong on half a dozen states, I'll keep it anyway and see how I did. My most gutsy pick way back in August? Probably Indiana. Just a hunch that may prove prophetic. My weakest pick? Probably Florida. But who could guess the economy would tank and the older Floridians would see Obama as a better chance than McCain to save their retirement. Hear is my take on why the election will finish with an Obama victory. First, the Obama campaign warchest allowed him to outspend McCain in battleground states and in traditionally republican states. Second, the economy took a dive and took the wind out of the McCain sails. People see the economy as a McCain weak point and he never recovered in the polls. Third, Obama's "presidential" demeanor during the bailout crisis, during the debates, and throughout the campaign. The "angry black man" that could have given a lot of people an excuse not to vote for him never materialized. And finally, McCain's choice of Palin as VP. Ultra conservatives love to say she was the perfect pick. She has been a disaster. She has made moderate conservatives nervous, independents dumbfounded, and democrats appalled. According to a recent poll, fourteen percent of republicans who have switched to Obama did so because of Palin. Twenty four hours from now, we will have a new president. My guess on popular vote is 52 - 46. And just for fun Gceres, since you made Virginia an absolute for you, it goes 50 - 48 for Obama. Tomorrow will be an interesting night for all of us political junkies!!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 01:13:23
TRUE. TRUE.

By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2008-11-12 @ 22:37:07
For a first timer I'm going to give myself a little pat on the back. I made this map during the heat of the summer and only missed four states and a CD. Had I made any changes before election day I probably would have switched FLA and NEV to Obama but would have left NC to McCain and MO to Obama. Oh well. I also nailed the popular vote at 52-46. This has been fun. It has been a blast reading the posts each night. And each day (don't tell my boss!) This site is addicting. Thanks for letting a newbie join in the discussions. My analytical skills don't match up with most of you but I've learned a lot. I'll still be reading and posting once in while.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	6	90	625	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%

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