PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - stry_cat (L-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:3

Prediction Map
stry_cat MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
stry_cat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem318
 
Rep220
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem318
 
Rep193
 
Ind0
 
Tos27
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+70-10-4192248+66
Rep+10+4-70-70243216-66
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
83463241
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Wow a lot has happened since the conventions. A friend of mine was saying after the Conventions that McInsane was making the same mistakes Bob Dole made (focus on war record, pick a VP who couldn't keep the base energized, and run against a candidate the media had already declared the winner). It looks like he was right.

This is how I think it will turn out. However a lot of states I've marked as Republican could very easily go the other way.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 234
P 2022 Senate 29/35 19/35 48/70 68.6% pie 1 1 280T305
P 2022 Governor 27/36 16/36 43/72 59.7% pie 1 1 260T272
P 2020 President 43/56 37/56 80/112 71.4% pie 2 39 627T684
P 2016 President 46/56 23/56 69/112 61.6% pie 4 12 579T678
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 2 1 401T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 9/33 36/66 54.5% pie 1 11 297T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 1 11 179T228
P 2010 Senate 31/37 18/37 49/74 66.2% pie 1 1 242T456
P 2008 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 3 8 404T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 16/33 46/66 69.7% pie 3 2 257T465
P 2004 President 51/56 28/56 79/112 70.5% pie 23 1 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 397/465 242/465 639/930 68.7% pie


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