PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - auburntiger (R-FL) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2008-10-06 Version:20

Prediction Map
auburntiger MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
auburntiger MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem338
 
Rep200
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem264
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos111
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+86000202252+86
Rep000-70-86243200-86
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95493943
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Well...this will probably be my last map update for the campaign season.

the swing states are now the following: NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, all 2004 red states, obviously.

I'm thinking about putting IN as lean McCain, and having CO and VA as lean Obama, but I'm trying to hold out for a modest defeat, not a blowout.

I think the finish line will reveal Obama winning by 4% in the popular vote and 338-200 in the Electoral College. I think this is reasonable considering how relatively polarized the different regions of the country are.


I'll start with Florida...I wept over putting this one into the Demicratic column, but alas I'm coming to grips with reality that Obama won't just win, he'll win comfortably, and that includes picking up Florida.

North Carolina - Honestly I'm not surprised by how close the race is due to all the college towns and Obama's appeal. What I am surprised is that he actually does lead here currently. I do think that given it's GOP history and it's lack of a Fairfax, or one that's big and flying leftward, that McCain will hang on. Unless a large amount of RURAL, CONSERVATIVE, WHITE voters STAY HOME en masse, I don't see a blue NC when the real Nov. 4 poll comes in. Pat McCrory might actually help McCain rather than the other way around.

Virginia - quickly becoming the next New Jersey...polls showing Obama in the double digits is really depressing me...not that I think he'll win by that margin, but that he'll defintely win VA.

Ohio - always around the national average or a tad more GOP, Obama wins.

Missouri - I think rural, white, conservative voters in the end will save McCain on Election Night.

Indiana - very frighteningly close. the only state above the Mason Dixon line we will probably win. I find it shocking that a rural, conservative state is this close.



Colorado - pretty much GONE. the conservative base won't turn out as much handing it to Obama.

Nevada - Close, but will go to Obama in the end.

Any state that voted for Gore AND Kerry - GONE from the moment Bush won a second term on Election Night 2004.

Iowa - GONE

New Mexico - GONE




Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 33/35 19/35 52/70 74.3% pie 7 23 170T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 21/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 25 164T372
P 2016 President 51/56 32/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 24 114T678
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 0.0% pie 2457701 362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 3/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 5 1 21T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 5 1 123T300
P 2012 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 1 14 614T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 13/33 40/66 60.6% pie 1 14 252T343
P 2012 Governor 8/11 4/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 14 196T228
P 2010 Senate 33/37 22/37 55/74 74.3% pie 13 1 133T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 7 1 91T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 7 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 20 29 100T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 13/33 45/66 68.2% pie 2 33 257T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 4/11 14/22 63.6% pie 4 33 212T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 40/52 1/52 41/104 39.4% pie 6 - 99T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 6/49 48/98 49.0% pie 8 - 63235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 15/33 47/66 71.2% pie 6 1 232T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 12/36 45/72 62.5% pie 5 1 207T312
Aggregate Predictions 583/691 310/691 893/1382 64.6% pie


Back to 2008 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved