Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-05-19 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	298
Rep	240
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	243
Rep	235
Ind	0
Tos	60

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+5	0	+46	0	0	0	20	2	252	+46
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-46	26	3	240	-46
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
79	45	29	4	1

Analysis

This map is Barack Obama vs. Rudolph Giuliani. Much like 1952, the country being sick of an incumbent will lead to the election of a "fresh face" into the Presidential Chair. In this scenario Obama takes 52% of the vote to Giuliani's 48%.

2008, barring some major change in fortunes in Iraq and on the border, will be a substantial victory for the Democratic Party. New Hampshire and Minnesota are the most likely Senate seats to fall from the GOP's grasp, and there are several House seats which could be taken in an election year.

However, the GOP will still keep substantial totals in both houses and also barely lose the Presidential election. By the 2010 Midterms, the Grand Old Party could live up to it's name once more.

Member Comments

By: hashemite (G-ON) 2007-05-20 @ 01:41:20
Apart maybe from CO and WV, that's a very accurate prediction

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	49/56	30/56	79/112	70.5%	1	535	537	T	1,505
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	171	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	28/33	16/33	44/66	66.7%	4	3	299	T	465
2006 Governor	31/36	23/36	54/72	75.0%	4	2	81	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	111/128	72/128	183/256	71.5%

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