Date of Prediction: 2008-02-08 Version:10
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Prediction Score (max Score = 104)
Analysis
Didn't even bother with Super Tuesday. Back on now.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 9 My first "lean" prediction. Obama is very likely to win South Carolina at this point. Version: 8 Last-minute change to Nevada. Watch, now my original prediction will be correct (though whoever wins is pretty much guaranteed to be over 40%, actually). Version: 7 Clinton underperformed in Michigan compared to my expectations, which I suppose means that I am alternating between being too optimistic and too pessimistic. That should tempt me to predict Nevada as 90% for Obama so that being overly optimistic could still mean an Obama victory, but I'll go with my gut and predict a result very similar to Iowa instead. Version: 6 Well, I was wrong about New Hampshire, but I think I can be pretty confident about Michigan. Version: 5 I'm thinking New Hampshire goes over 40% for Obama, now, actually. Version: 4 Obama should win the nomination at this point. Version: 3 To be updated as we go along.
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