Comments History
-
hideVersion: 7
I give in on PA, but rank it a tossup, along with IN. I exprct to have to update after 5/6 (if not before) as I expect supers to begin declaring, mooting the remaining contests.
Version: 6
So it looks like Clinton could pull out a squeeker in Ohio. A little too little and too late, IMHO. Obama still takes Texas, and increases his delegate lead through his victories there and in Vermont. Supers start to head his way, not wanting this to drag on another 6 weeks or longer. Whether Clinton attempts to spin this and stay in through Pennsyvania is anyones guess.
Version: 5
OBAMA SURGES AHEAD!!!
With Maria Shriver's endorsement, Obama tops off a clear victory on Super Tuesday with a win in California!!! From an overwhelming victory in Georgia announced at 7 p.m. to a victory in the Alaska cacuses announced after midnight, Super Tuesday is non-stop good news for the Obama campaign. In between, he wins in Clinton backyard of Connecticutt, while Hillary barely manages a squeeker in New Jersey. Because of proportional representation, Hillary still has a shot, and stays in the race until being defeated in Ohio on the old super Tuesday in March.
Version: 4
Obamamania! This one's goin' to Denver, baby!
Version: 3
California is obviously the big tomato being contested on Feb. 5. A win there would keep Obama in the race to the end. NE for HRC & south for Obama. Prairie & western states are the other real battlegrounds, with a mixed bag there on Feb. 5.
Hillary is looking to have a tough time for the rest of February, outside of Maine and maybe Nebraska. Losses in Viginia, Maryland, due to large black populations voting overwhelmingly for Barack, and Wisconsin with its progressives, will sting bad. Washington is a tough call, but I call it for Obama based on higher education levels and lower poverty.
Hillary rebounds in March with a big state win projected in Ohio. Texas will be a real showdown but I predict a narrow Obama victory there. May could be the decisive month, with Clinton victories in PA & NC.
Edwards, should he stay in as he says he will, however, could continue to pick off delegates here and there and be in a position to play kingmaker. He can play, who will make me their running mate? Presumably, this game heavily favors Obama.
Version: 2
Interesting developments in the Democratic race. I'm not sure any of them have that much of an impact. Nader has endorsed Edwards. Kucinich has asked his supporters (perhaps 2% of the vote) to choose Obama as a second choice. Apparently Biden and Obama's people are meeting, with rumor being an agreement that each candidate's supporters choose the other candidate for second place. Richardson and Dodd machinations are unknown, but they are thought to be Clinton supporters.
It appears that Biden and Obama have mutual benefits from an agreement. Obama wants Edwards out of the race, and to become the sole anti-Clinton. Biden wants to be so close in 4th so as to be indistinguishable from third, presumably Edwards. If it happend, it would be news, and if followed by an Edwards third (or fourth!) in N.Hampshire, could lead to an early exit for the 2004 vice-presidential candidate. This map is an attempt to predict this scenario, with Biden gaining significant support after Edwards' withdrawal, enough to win a few states and marginally help Clinton in others, and enough to carry a decisive number of delegates to the convention. Neither Obama or Clinton clinch a majority of delegates, and Biden becomes kingmaker, and Obama's running mate. He balances the ticket in terms of experience, most notably in foreign policy, age, and race.
Nader, convinced that Obama is anti-corporate enough, declines to mount an independant candidacy. Obama, having announced his non-partisan goals sometime in March, convinces Unity08 not to run a candidate. Thereafter, the United States of America elects its first non-Caucasian president. Dennis Kucinich is tapped to head either a newly formed Department of Peace or National Service director.
Version: 1
Obama builds his margin in Iowa for the next three weeks, then narrowly defeats HRC in New Hamphire. She battles abck with wins in CA NY NJ & FL, but Obama stuns with a win in Pennsylvania a week later. HRC is bouyed by a win in Ohio, but never recovers after a crushing loss in Texas.