Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-10 Version:44

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	18
Edwards	0
Obama	34
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	7
Edwards	0
Obama	19
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	26

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-10 @ 02:43:36
Puerto Rico changed its system to a primary recently.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-10 @ 03:40:48
Thanks, corrected. I stand by the rest of my analysis though :) Last Edit: 2008-03-10 @ 03:41:19

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-10 @ 20:33:53
Peurto Rico will be a big win for Hillary!

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-10 @ 20:59:49
When did PR change from the caucus system? Today the NY Times reported that Gov's Rendell and Corzine were set to raise 15 million, on Clinton's behalf, for a revote in FL and MI. A total of 30 million is needed for both states. One might recall that Mr. Corzine pumped over 100 million into his own campaign in NJ. A revote in FL and MI will likely take place after PR votes in June, according to the NY Times.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-10 @ 22:28:14
I think it's more likely Hillary will be defeated by then. I don't see Obama agreeing to a revote after June, as it gives Hillary an excuse to stay in that long. Last Edit: 2008-03-10 @ 22:33:30

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-10 @ 22:56:05
Like he has a choice, lol If the DNC and both states support it and unless she loses the remaining contests people will want these states to be heard. You obama supporters start screaming with the idea of seating the delegations with the current results but then refuse a revote? Doesnt make any sense?

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 04:26:35
I don't recall saying that. What I said was he won't agree to a revote after June. It is much more rational to hold it in April sometime before Pennsylvania. Might as well get this out of the way with Hillary losing ASAP :D

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 10:35:55
Both the governors of MI and FL have stated that it will take them 90 days from the time the decision is made to revote to actually hold that revote. So, the longer it takes them to reach a decision the longer this will stretch out. So it is simply not feasible that a revote occur w/ in six weeks. The process simply CAN NOT work that fast. Why would Hillary drop out before a revote in MI and FL? lol... Those revotes will only assure her a lead in the popular vote...

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-11 @ 13:38:25
Michigan would be slightly closer with his name on the ballot. Florida however with its senior population is tailor made for a double digit win and would be only a point or two closer in a revote to the original totals. Rural and suburban Michigan would seal the deal again for Hillary where as Barack would carry Detroit Ann Arbor etc. So yes lets have a revote.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 14:02:51
If Clinton can pull off 10-11% in Ohio, she can win by the same in MI... Essentially MI has one VERY large city, and OH has 3 large sized cities, with high African-American populations. Again, Mrs. Clinton has the MI Dem establishment, as she does in OH and PA. MI is even older, poorer and more blue-collar than Ohio is. There might be more social liberalism due to Ann Arbor and a slightly higher African-American population, but the demographics in both states are incredibly similar.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-11 @ 14:15:10
I think Michigan would be a strong 8-10 point win for her, closer then Ohio. Florida double digits as her favorables are higher in that state and the demographics favor her.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 15:46:57
Michigan polls show it pretty close there, and if it's some sort of mail-in vote I see Obama with the upperhand. If she lost there in Michigan, she would more or less be forced to withdrawal from the race. Last Edit: 2008-03-11 @ 15:47:35

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 15:54:49
Not necessarily... If a mail in vote in anything like a mail in poll it might benefit Clinton. Here in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch did a mail in poll to Ohio voters that came back with C +16, when in every other poll she was hovering around 8% and in actuality she only won by 10%. Older people are much more likely to pay attention to what comes in the mail. A mail in vote will have thousands of votes unaccounted for because many of them will end up in the trash. I would welcome a mail in vote, especially in FL. Last Edit: 2008-03-11 @ 15:55:53

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 15:58:17
I guess the Clinton campaign's only path to victory involves wide-spread disenfranchisement :P Then again, I've been saying that all along.

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 16:07:15
Its no worse than what Obama did to caucus goers in IA and NV! And wouldn't it be Obama doing the "disenfranchising" in punishing the citizens of FL and MI for something which they had no control over, but their governors and Dem leaders did? Last Edit: 2008-03-11 @ 16:08:35

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-03-11 @ 16:09:35
90 days is too late. The primary season will be over. The DNC won't agree to extend it. Sould a re-vote be worked out, Michigan is also an awful lot like Wisconsin. Obama finished his supposed "week from hell" with an increased lead in the delegate count: Obama Clinton OH 66 75 RI 8 13 VT 9 6 TX 99 94 WY 7 5 Total 189 193 Add 6 new superdelegate endorsements, Bill Foster's election, plus a swing of 4 delegates following certification of the California contest, and Obama gained 6 for the week. More to come tonight, of course. Last Edit: 2008-03-11 @ 16:10:31

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 16:15:17
And wasn't Obama gonna have a solid win in Texas and a Clinton "squeaker" in Ohio and then drop out... Yea, you are really reliable! Okay wingindy... I've never said that Clinton was going to win the nomination... I just think, to your chagrin, it will go along more than you would want and Obama will be no stronger for it... But, hey look at the bright side, sooner you get rid of Clinton, sooner you get rid of me. :)

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-11 @ 16:16:56
I'll stay on for you Doni Ill be supporting Big Mc though!

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-11 @ 17:01:32
Liberal- I will support him too, but its more entertaining fighting the Hillary hate than defending John McCain. McCain can handle himself! I'm quite content w/ either Clinton or McCain... I feel bad for those people that only have one candidate! lol... Wait, no I dont!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-11 @ 19:49:16
I hadn't looked at this year's rules, but windindy is correct. Contests after June would not be legal under party rules. The vote would likely take place before June. So you hens go vote for McCain, we don't need ya :P

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-12 @ 05:24:14
I would not vote for McCain over Obama although it would be tempting as an act of spite. However I'm not that petty. He should definitely have Hillary as his running mate but what's the bet he won't, or if he does he'll be forced into it by the DNC. He's real shirty about Hillary sounding out him being her running mate. He should be so lucky. Oh that's right he won all those massive caucuses in the states that count, I forgot. I know that's the way it goes but Primaries in my opinion are the best way to go. & in that it's much much closer.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-03-12 @ 05:25:31
You can't vote for McCain simply because of his 100 years in Iraq statement. Do you really want to support that? & look at the way he's snuggled right back up to Bush. Sickening.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-12 @ 13:49:40
Id have no problem supporting Mc Cain over Obama and Im a gay male from California, It wont matter as I come from a state thats already democratic obama wont need my vote. So its a mute point. Now back to the back room for fun!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-12 @ 17:43:28
The premise of him being Hillary's VP is that Hillary will win and that Obama is qualified to be VP but not President. This isn't a rational argument, as a VP might always become President. Hillary can't have it both ways. Last Edit: 2008-03-12 @ 17:43:43

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-12 @ 18:26:38
Hillary won't have a choice but to put him on the ticket... She is losing blacks, who account for 10% of the population by 90% to Barack Obama. They will NEVER support her in a general election if Obama is not on the ticket. This is all about Obama. It's his race to lose. He's most likely the one that is going to have to make the VP choice. There is no way he would pick Clinton, whom his most ardent supporters HATE!!! I certainly hope he won't select Clinton, because I want no excuse to vote for him.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-12 @ 21:52:08
Blacks would support Hillary, provided she won fairly. But at this point she doesn't even have a way to win fairly. She cannot beat Obama's 150-160 pledged delegate lead. She needs some moral argument to make to super delegates about why she should be the nominee. It's an uphill battle. Hillary is probably done regardless of what happens from this point forward.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	3	0	325	T	678
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	6	1	146	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	20/33	52/66	78.8%	1	1	74	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	8/52	2/52	10/104	9.6%	4	-	211	T	231
2010 Senate	0/37	0/37	0/74	0.0%	9	-1	200		456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	3	1	59	T	312
2008 President	55/56	49/56	104/112	92.9%	87	0	1		1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%	11	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	5	1	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	41/52	88/104	84.6%	77	-	1		271
2008 Rep Primary	42/49	31/49	73/98	74.5%	27	-	1		235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	9	1	65	T	465
2004 President	50/56	29/56	79/112	70.5%	33	1	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	451/561	320/561	771/1122	68.7%

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