PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - whoblitzell (I-JPN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-13 Version:46

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Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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Prediction History
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Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-14 @ 16:27:46
Then Obama should win Pennsylvania too by the above stated theory. The above stated theory implies he has control over the momentum then he should win pennsylvania.

Last Edit: 2008-03-14 @ 16:29:59
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-14 @ 16:55:11
Yes, If Clinton wins PA, she would almost certainly have the momentum to go to friendlier states like WV, KY and IN. If she can't win KY and WV, there is no way she could win PA. prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-03-14 @ 17:30:37
Kentucky and WV can certainly be viewed as demographically superior territories for Clinton.

But what you guys are overlooking is that 'Momentum' is determined by expectations.

Obama is already downplaying Pennsylvania -- the media will simply state Hillary was expected to win there. She will waste 6 weeks campaigning there while Obama grabs her by the throat in terms of ads in Indiana, Kentucky, WV, NC, etc.

Her 'big wins' in Ohio and Texas have already been undone totally in national polls. In less than a week and a half, no less. I see a small margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

It's a smart strategy Obama has, actually. By snubbing PA, he secures the delegate lead in subsequent states. Hillary needs WAY more than Pennsylvania to bail her out of the hole. This also curbs her momentum out of a 'big win' in Pennsylvania, should that occur. It's all about the expectations gaming and I think Hillary is set to lose this one rather badly.

Big wins in Indiana and North Carolina knock Hillary out in terms of national standing. By the time Kentucky and West Virginia roll around: She's either out of the race or out of money AND out of the race.

She is going to get beat so bad that her only chance left will be to call it a hate crime or domestic violence.


On this whole revote thing... it isn't going to happen. It's against state law in Florida and I don't see any consensus emerging in Michigan.

Even IF Michigan does revote, I'm not sure Hillary can hope to win big there. In fact, I'd give Obama the slight edge in any revote scenario.

I'll predict now that Hillary is out of the race by the time Puerto Rico hits.

Last Edit: 2008-03-14 @ 17:35:07
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-03-14 @ 17:38:32
Hillary has planned to actively contest your Indiana. Senator Bayh and the Kernan's should be able to help her out. Now I think she has given up on North Carolina as far as I can see. She will be advertising in Indiana make no mistake about that.

Yes Michigan revote will be closer but not as close as you would like it to be but to think Obama is going to win that one with the demographics there is unrealistic at best. The headlines today are all about the likely June 3 revote in Michigan. Governor Jennifer Granholm has endorsed Hillary as well as Senator Stabenow Senator Levin remains neutral. It will be nice to have these superdelegate votes actually count.
I am definetly starting to feel much better about about my candidates chances if that were to occur.

Last Edit: 2008-03-14 @ 21:14:15
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2008-03-14 @ 18:25:04
Isn't concedeing PA a bit risky for Obama? It is sort of interesting in that it appears much like Clinton concedeing VA and MD, which had a disasterous effect. Regardless of how much Obama campaigns in KY and WV, it is going to virtually impossible for him to win those states. There aren't many urban centers for him to work with and the Southern influence creeping up from TN is tremendous. Obama campaigned vigorously in Ohio, to no avail in Southern Ohio... I would refer you to the CNN map of Ohio and take a look at Obama's numbers along the Ohio river, bordering WV and KY if you would like some insight into an Obama win in KY, WV or IN for that matter. Obama should keep his focus on NC and OR.

Just out of curiousity do you get your info regarding the information and "legality" of the revotes from Mr. Obama's website? Apparently Rep. Kirkpatrick along with Sen. Levin and Gov. Granholm are nearing a decision in MI for a primary to be held on June 3 w/ South Dakota.

And from what I've seen on CNN there is some debate as to what is happening in FL, but a deal has been in the works with Sen Nelson, the state of Florida and the DNC to have a mix of mail-in vote and revote primary in June. Now I do understand that Mr. Obama is oppossed to a mail-in revote in that it would disenfranchise his voters and Rep. Wasserman-Schultz is insisting the original vote count and the delegates be seated as is. But if Florida does have a revote for its 4.1 Million democratic voters what happens? Well if turnout is low, as before and 35% of Dem voters show up and Mrs. Clinton wins by the same margin of 17%, which is very reasonable, she would win 832,300 to 588,350 for a net gain of 243,950. If turnout is as it was in Ohio and 45% of Dems vote with a Clinton win of 17%, she would win 1,070,000 to 756,450 for a net gain of 313,500. If turnout is 50%, as they had predicted in Ohio or as they are predicting in PA, with a 17% victory Clinton would win 1,189,000 to 840,500 for a net gain of 348,500, or half of her deficit. Even if Mrs. Clinton only wins by 200,000 votes, it is not inconceivable where she could make up the extra 500,000 in PA, MI, KY, WV, IN, PR, despite an predicted loss in NC... especially since with only a 10% win in Ohio she gained 250,000 votes. WV and KY have a lot more Registered Dem voters than MS does, and Clinton maintained a healthy 20% lead in WV, despite falling to as low as 5% in PA amidst the Ohio primary contest, though she has rebounded to 15% or greater in PA.

Now granted, she has to hold her 17%. But lets not forget the Florida vote came just after a tremendous 28% rout by Mr. Obama in South Carolina, which undoubtedly hurt Clinton, including the momentum Obama carried into 2/5. So if momentum is your argument and Obama "bypasses" PA, what signal does that send to FL when another swing state, Ohio has already voted for Clinton? The Demographics in FL do not serve to benefit him. He's despised by the Jewish and Cuban communities in South Florida, which should be his Democratic base.

My apologies, you used the word "snubbing" PA.

Last Edit: 2008-03-14 @ 18:31:46
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 3 0 325T678
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 6 1 146T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 1 1 74T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 8/52 2/52 10/104 9.6% pie 4 - 211T231
P 2010 Senate 0/37 0/37 0/74 0.0% pie 9 -1 200456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 3 1 59T312
P 2008 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 87 0 11,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 11 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 5 1 27T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 41/52 88/104 84.6% pie 77 - 1271
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 31/49 73/98 74.5% pie 27 - 1235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 9 1 65T465
P 2004 President 50/56 29/56 79/112 70.5% pie 33 1 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 451/561 320/561 771/1122 68.7% pie

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