PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-04-22 Version:8

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton17
 
Edwards0
 
Obama35
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
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Clinton9
 
Edwards0
 
Obama16
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup27
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
664521
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Analysis

"Indiana, our Indiana, Indiana, we're all for you. We will fight for the cream and crimson, for the glory of old IU. Never daunted, we cannot falter in the battle, we're tried and true. Indiana, our Indiana, Indiana, we're all for you!"

My first canvassing ever, and first time door to door campaigning since '88. This northside Indianapolis neighborhood's residents were 1/3 undecided, 1/3 Obama, and 1/3 other.

Obama can end this primary race 5/6 in INDIANA INDIANA INDIANA.

Who and other interested Hoosier parties: get out and walk for Obama! Washington Township headquarters new digs on Broadripple Ave.: barbeque/canvassing Saturday 4/26 - canvassing weeknights at 5:30 and weekends at 10 and 2. YES WE CAN!!


Prediction History
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Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:49:18
ON TO INDIANA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-22 @ 23:51:49
I'm not so sure that Hillary does well here for reasons on my map.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-23 @ 03:39:23
I'm looking forward to Indiana.
If Hillary wins rubbing it into you guys will be almost as nice as ringing my Obama supporting brother today to get congratulations on the win in PA today!
Can't wait.
As long as she wins.
haha
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 09:25:50
Obama should be able to do well here. It's an open primary and a red state where most of Hillary's constituency is GOP (older, less educated, low-income = Republican around here).

As I said before, Hillary needs Operation Chaos to win here.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-23 @ 09:54:58
Congrats to you Dem on HRC's Pennsylvania victory. Just short of those double digits. Now she's running on empty. She is apparently to be her on the American Legion mall, a few blocks from my office, at 12:45 today.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 12:52:17
Raised over 3 million in 24 hours...

Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 12:52:33
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 14:05:45
Obama will have the money advantage for the rest of the season. You can count on that if nothing else :P

All Hillary did in PA was stem the flow of blood. She is still in no way in a good position to pull this off.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 14:59:21
Ofcourse but but she is a lot less depleted now as early reports from yesterday before the victory had suggested and its cheaper to run ad's in the indiana markets then philadelphia.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 16:38:22
She doesn't have the mileage to make it to August without more big wins, though. That's the real problem :P

The map for Hillary is considerably bad from this point on.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 17:22:44
I wouldnt call West Virginia and Kentucky bad.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 18:09:57
That'd be fine and it would be enough, but they don't have even close to a majority of the delegates left in play.

Hillary favors in states with 79 delegates (KY and WV) and Obama is favored in NC, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota with a total of 198 delegates. Of course, this depends on whether Hillary can win toss-ups such as Indiana, Puerto Rico, and what the super delegates do in June.

And Michigan and Florida might be able to swing her 60-70 delegates in a favorable compromise. But I think that's a REALLY bad thing to count on.

In the end, I'm not sure that counting on last minute rule changes and backroom deals is a winning strategy. She needs a game changer. And performing exactly on par with polls in PA isn't that game changer.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-24 @ 07:30:51
Well I read an article in the NY Times today that makes Indiana sound like pretty fertile stuff for Hillary.
White, working class, bad economy (gee sounds like most of the US now).
She's going to get some good support.
Everyone thinks the high turn out this year seems to be only because of Obama but how do you explain Hillary winning states like PA, CA, NY, MA, TX, OH etc in record numbers.
It's not all one way.
She'll bring them out in your home state too.
I hope you were at the mall with your cheer squad for HRC Win!
I certainly would have been.
I think the gap will also close significantly in NC, I know this is going out on a limb, but that's my gut feeling, & the latest polls have Obama on about 10, & there were some back not long ago that only had him in the margin of error.
So this could be very interesting girls & boys.
WV, & KY will be massive victories for Hillary.
Puerto Rico should deliver very nicely as well.
& I think Oregon could be a bit of a sleeper also.
Obama is starting to show too many flaws.
People are having second thoughts.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-24 @ 13:27:09
I did go to see Hill, but no cheer squad. I did applaud when she said "isn't it great that we have two wonderful candidates that people are excited about?", and groaned when she claimed to have more votes than anyone. I did not heckle.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 19:31:58
RCP moving average has Obama up by 15 in NC. After campaigning, I suspect it could even go higher. The state has a very large black population. I think he will win NC similar to the margin he won South Carolina by, although somewhat less.

Indiana could go either way, but for reasons I stated on my map I believe Obama has the advantage here. Where can I hear about these campaign events at, wing? :P


Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 19:32:28
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-24 @ 21:14:47
Good on you Win!
I'm so glad you turned out for Hillary.
She's a hard woman to ignore.
Star pulling power!

You would think he'll win NC comfortably however the African American population here is less.
Here are the figures from the US census bureau website for 2006:

NC SC
White 74% White 68.5%
Black 21.7% Black 29%
Hispanic 6.7% Hispanic 3.5%

So Hillary has better demographics in a larger white population, one that I think has more Democrats still than SC, & more HIspanics.
Yes the Black population is still large & no doubt a big chunk of the Democrat base but if she can pull the white vote together by a large margin, as she did say in Tennessee, Mississippi, & Alabama, she may just be in it to win it!
I agree it shouldn't be about racial lines, but when African Americans have gathered around Obama in such large numbers this is hard to ignore.
Further compounded by the Reverand Wright fiasco.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-24 @ 21:36:42
That rat bastard was back talking out again today in an interview would someone please put a mussle on him. No wait, let him speak it will only help Hillary and John Mc Cain. I love the North Carolina ads saw one today.



Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 23:09:36
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-24 @ 21:43:30
I'm still shocked that Obama could hold him as a close confidant after the views he's expressed.
Unbelievable.
Read his comments about 9/11 on the first Sunday afterwards.
Why would you go to this man's church?
This makes me very very suspicious of Obama.
You are judged by the company you keep.
This will be a huge weapon against Obama by the Republicans if he wins the nomination.
& so it should be in my opinion.
You can't tell me that in 20 years Obama has never heard this hate filled rhetoric.
He should have taken a stand & said something against it.
How can you expect to be President when you can't even stand up against injustice & intolerance in your own church?
No He Can't.
What change is Obama talking about? He certainly hasn't shown any sort of example in this.
Very disappointing.
This is way more revealing than Hillary's exaggerations of sniper fire in Bosnia.


Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 21:46:46
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 22:29:30
Media distractions at best. People don't care about this petty non-sense. Outside a few hundred media pundits and campaign gurus, that is. And people like us :pprediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 01:13:33
Indiana poll shows Obama 3 points up, 21% undecided: http://www.wthr.com/global/Story.asp?s=8224749

Who, go to barackobama.com, choose Indiana, and it will list events and aloow you to sign onto listserves for the various groups: Central Indiana for Obama, Washington Township, etc. I'm going to canvass again Saturday morning and eat at the cookout and enjoy the bands after. 1915 Broadripple Ave.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/4ml8
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-25 @ 01:17:39
For Hillary go to www.hillaryclinton.com & make history!prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-25 @ 22:38:17
I already voted :Pprediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-26 @ 05:54:30
That was a plug for all our readers as I know your vote is in the bag for the Senator from Illinos.
*grin*
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-26 @ 05:55:15
You can still rectify your mistake by contributing at www.hillaryclinton.com
!
haha
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 02:02:42
I already voted also.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:12:01
I actually did give Hillary money back in December, although I'm not exactly proud to admit it.

Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 23:12:27
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-28 @ 03:27:46
*shock*
lol
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-01 @ 23:15:58
I need more polls before I give this state back to Obama. Right now, I'd say most of the undecideds are probably going to go Obama.

If Hillary loses here and in NC, it's more or less the end of her campaign as it will completely nullify the PA win.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-02 @ 06:02:18
Agreed.
She has to win Indiana I think.
I think she will, although I certainly would have thought Indiana several months ago was solidly in the Obama camp.
But on second thought looking at the demographics, she has as good a shot as any.
I think this week has been tough on Obama, & let's face it I'm not sure if Zogby has ever gotten their polls right, but I could be wrong.
They certainly seem to always be way out there.
I've always thought Survey USA is closer on the money.
?

Last Edit: 2008-05-02 @ 06:03:00
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-02 @ 06:03:45
PS where do people live in Indiana?
Just out of curiosity so I can check it on election night.

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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-02 @ 09:49:08
The largest population centers are Indianapolis, NW Indiana & Fort Wayne. The analysis I have seen seems to point to a slight Clinton victory overall, and an even split of delegates. Obama is near certain to get a 4-2 split in CD7, Indianapolis, and Clinton will win the extra delegate in the only CD with an odd number of delegates, CD6, in the East Central part of the state.

Whether Obama can break an even delegate split in NW Indiana, or Clinton can break a split in one or both of the southern CDs seem to be the only real questions.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-04 @ 04:26:19
Jeez you're in the know - very detailed knowledge - impressive.
Do you do much in organisation at all?
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-04 @ 19:41:10
I'm going to be watching Lake County to see who wins.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-04 @ 22:04:37
Obama will win Lake county easily. The 1st CD as a whole, however, contins a large number of white blue collar workers and rural areas. He will probably not win enough votes (58.5%) to earn an additional delegate there.

There have been a couple of good previews on DailyKos. Here's one: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/1/10722/09250

I don't agree with the writer here that Clinton will win an extra delegate in CD9. Both current and former Dem Reps., Baron Hill (at some personal politial risk) & Lee Hamilton have endorsed Obama, and the CD includes Bloomington, as close to a liberal hotbed as you get in Indiana. She could gain one in CD8 (Evansville), and will in CD6, bordering Ohio with 5 delegates. I'd say +3 PDs is the best she could hope for from Ind.

I am generally pretty disorganized. I did some canvassing, that is the extent of my participation in the Obama campaign and in any since college, 20 years ago.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-04 @ 22:21:56
Here another prediction with county map. I thought this guy had predicte even split in CD9, but he calls it 4-2 Clinton as well. He also calls CD1, NW Indiana 4-2 Obama which is certainly possible. I'd venture to say it'll end up even split statewide to +2 Clinton.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/30/114926/621

Last Edit: 2008-05-04 @ 22:22:48
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-05 @ 23:58:39
I don't think I can bring myself to change my prediction for my home state. I'm too emotionally invested. Therefore, I shall predict a 51-49 Obama victory, even delegate split.

North Carolina is easy in comparison. Obama 57-43. I'm not up on the delegate math here, but a significant bump for Obama, perhaps net 12-15 delegates.

This is, I believe, a critical point in the contest. If as predicted above, SDs would flock to Obama, and Clinton would drop out within a week. In the more likely scenario of a split decision, a narrow Clinton victory in Indiana would have the same practical result. A closer result in NC, and larger Clinton victory in Indiana, and we go on to mid-June. A Clinton sweep (improbable, IMHO) takes us to a contested convention. WHere is everyone on this board??

Last Edit: 2008-05-05 @ 23:59:26
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-06 @ 04:08:05
I'd love for an upset in North Carolina!
How exciting!
Imagine the press!
They would have a field day & practically give the nomination to Hillary - our Queen of the comeback Victories!
I think this will be unlikely with Indiana going to Hillary 55 to 45 & North C going Obama 53 to 47.
Still a good result & will give her much needed momentum!
Fingers crossed!
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-06 @ 13:38:58
Joe Scarbiorough preducted a Clinton sweep. I say not a chance. Interestingly, the local pols I watched yesterday predicted an Obama win here. The safe money, and the large majority of pundits predict the split. I not so secretly expect they are right.

I joined 21,000 (I previously guessed 15,000) downtown for Obama's GOTV rally last night. Clinton is here in town tonight, and I have a Hillary supporting friend (who BTW accompanyed me at both Obama rallys) who is attending her gathering at the Murat Theatre. I would certainly feel out of place there, and would not even be able to fake it for any babes I might meet, so I'm joining the Washington Township Obama folks at a northside restarant. My buddy inadvertanty let it slip and said "She's undecided too?", but I think he stuck with his gut for Hill.

There are very few requesting a GOP ballot today, even in GOP precincts. I will be interested to know which way the crossover vote goes here. I was surpirsed to see a friend from lawschool and lifelong Repub. at the Obama rally last night.

Last Edit: 2008-05-06 @ 13:41:02
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-07 @ 01:21:23
"I'm going to be watching Lake County to see who wins."

I called it :P
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-07 @ 02:31:05
Obama won Lake County as expected, but it was not quite enough. Nontheless, the general election started tonight.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-07 @ 08:22:38
Well congrats on a strong showing, at least in North Carolina.
I'm very glad Hillary won your state of Indiana, & at least one of my predictions proved correct - a sea of Hillary blue on the Indiana map!
I hope she stays in the race to at least thump Obama as we all know she will in West Virginia & Kentucky!
If she's going to go out she might as well do it with a bang!
I hope she stays all the way & a miracle happens.
Lake County certainly was alot closer than the initial results there - again working class White Democrats voting in force for Ms Hill, a demographic Obama is going to find hard to win in the general election perhaps?
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-08 @ 12:24:49
Democrats haven't won the white-working class vote in any election since 1964.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-08 @ 15:49:49
Ok Im going to need a detailed explanation on that one????

How have the been able to win without it? There are not enough minorities to give the democrats a majority without the working class vote, democrats certaintly dont win the upper class vote?

Carter in 1976
Clinton in 1992
Clinton in 1996
Gore in 2000 (he won the popular vote)

How did the win majorities without the working class vote Please explain that one Im truly interested?
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-08 @ 16:20:23
If you look at the 1996 exit poll, Bob Dole carried the white vote by a slim margin. The point is Democrats win by getting high vote percentages of the black vote, the Hispanic vote, and by keeping the margin among whites close.

Obama right now has a margin similar to Kerry's from 2004 with whites. This means right now Obama would do at least as well as Kerry. Of course this figure will likely go up as the election gets closer, since Clinton supporters will largely rally behind Obama once he becomes the official nominee of the party.

I'll point a lot of these people in exit polls are Republicans that were never going to vote for Hillary or Obama in a general election anyways (10% of the Indiana voters were Republican and I can assure you that almost none will vote for either of them in the GE).

So in reality maybe 10% of Hillary's supporters will stay home after she wins the nomination. A few might vote for McCain.

But once she concedes and endorses Obama, most of her supporters will remain loyal to the party for the sake of winning. This is particularly the case if she is the VP candidate.

I would never underestimate the partisan times we live in, my friend. The Republican party is toast.

Last Edit: 2008-05-08 @ 16:24:20
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-08 @ 16:30:27
No Democrat has won the White vote since 1964. Kerry won 41%, Clinton won 39% in '92, which was enough due to Perot. Gore won 42% in '00. I was surprised by this as well. Large majorities of non-white voters make up the difference. I also note that whites as a share of total vote is steadily decreasing: 81% in '00, 77% in '04. As for "white working class voters" I am not aware of those statistics, but presumably it would be easier to win without winning a majority of white working class voters than white voters in general. prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-08 @ 18:50:28
Yes I was not talking about the white vote as a whole but rather the
"working class white vote" likely making under 60K.

Who/wing/whoever you two are, Your very confident that the working class WHITE vote will fall in line behind obama,, we shall see thats not what the polling says or what I hear, there is a lot of fear about obama with his knowns and especially his unknowns and yes race does play a factor in that its the unfair truth but it does exist. We shall see if he is the "uniter" you seem to feel he is.

Mc Cain 2008 !

Last Edit: 2008-05-08 @ 18:51:55
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-08 @ 23:02:26
As I stated, I am unaware of the white working class vote stats, but as the white vote as a whole is obviously a larger group than the subgroup of working class whites, it is fair to say that Dems. can win without winning a majority of the subgroup, as they have won without winning a majority of whites in general. Who - while the Repubs. who voted for Clinton have largely said they were voting for McCain in the fall (operation chaos), those who voted Obama have said they intend to vote Obama in the fall.

The exit polls in Indiana contradict this idea that Obama cannot connect with working class voters. He led among those earning less than $15K, and was even among those from union households. The margin between them was actually closer among those earning less than $100K than more.

Rolad Martin of CNN re Clinton's hard working whites comment:

Is Clinton suggesting that whites who voted for Obama in Iowa, New Hampshire (where she beat him by around 8,000 votes), Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington state, Minnesota and so many other states were phantom voters? Were they not hard-working white voters? Were they only the "eggheads and African-Americans" whom Paul Begala referred to on CNN on election night?

If Democrats are serious about winning, they are going to have to put on ice this notion that white working-class voters or any other constituencies are the be-all and end-all in November." http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/08/roland.martin/index.html

Morerover, Obama's support among whites is actually increasing compared to Ohio, Mississippi and Pennsylvania.

Obama's support among "hard working Americans", which is code for poorer Americans, has also increased over those in previous contests, save for Mississippi, where the under-$50K vote was overwhelmingly black.

Obama's numbers among college grads is static to increasing. We don't have exit poll breakdowns for education by race, and we can assume North Carolina's huge numbers with "no college" are due to the large African American percentages in the state. But what about Indiana, a state that is whiter (83.9%) than Pennsylvania (82.1%), Ohio (82.9%) and Texas (48.3%)? Despite the demographic disadvantage, Obama actually increased his support among voters with no college degrees.

In short, Clintonistas' slice & dice argument which picks out one demographic and unreasonable elevates it to the be all & end all is not only not valid, its not true, either.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-09 @ 00:31:25
Well, I think demographics are important. You need to have a good coalition to win the office -- and a wide one to unify the nation. Although I believe Obama will get around 43-5X% of the white voters in November.

Most of the country is not racist, outside a few here and there. I do not believe McCain can or will get above 55% of the white vote in November.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-09 @ 15:04:49
See I think Mc Cain will get around 55% of white voters. Many parts of the country ARE racist, its just not talked about but its STILL there and we will see this in November.

The Bradley effect was in affect in 2006 When Harold Ford his senate bid and it will be in effect in November of 2008.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-09 @ 16:48:15
It's hardly fair to compare the 1-2% of closet-racist rednecks in the deep South to the country at large. Most of the rest of the population is more literate, civilized, and generally more open to the idea of voting for someone that doesn't look like them.

I'd also posit that the Democrats lost the South back in 1964 and it has since become painfully clear that the bible-belt is no longer relevant in Presidential-electoral politics.

Last Edit: 2008-05-09 @ 17:34:08
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 08:03:49
& what about racist Black people?
Do you think racism only belongs to White people?
Um I don't think so.
90% of the Black vote in Indiana & North Carolina says as much about race as anything else that's been said. (let's see if they can hit 100%!)
Would Obama have attracted this support if he wasn't Black?
The answer is NO.
& to many White people this is a complete turn off.
That ain't Change but Old politics at it's very best.
I think people will remember this when they cast their votes in November, that one candidate has been overly propped up by one segment of the population.

Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 09:02:16
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 08:45:40
Black, White, Red, Yellow, Whatever Obama is still a MAN & it's time for a WOMAN!
I'd rather vote for a WOMAN than another MAN any day of the week!
& can I just say I have no qualms voting for a Black MAN even though many people seem to have a problem voting for a White WOMAN.

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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 08:51:02
That Glass Ceiling is clearly still there unfortunately.
Will Obama hit it too in November?
I think Obama will need Hillary more & more, he is completely dumb if he doesn't choose her as his running mate, as I think it may be the only way he can win now.
Would she accept?
I wouldn't! Let him loose in November, & then she can run again in 2012 cause everyone will be wondering what could have been!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 08:53:31
Any one of those so called irrelevant Bible states could have saved your man Kerry last time round.
Relevant's a state of mind.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 08:54:26
I'm out for you now Who after those political garbage comments!
It's Personal now!
haha
Better back yourself up with facts!
lol
& as the old adage goes -
What's one person's trash is another person's treasure!
Love you Hill!
Don't be brought down by the knockers!



Last Edit: 2008-05-10 @ 08:57:29
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-10 @ 09:51:07
Al Gore recieved 90% of the black vote in the 2000 GE, and Bill Clinton's and Kerry's margins were close to that. As Obama said, Clinton would be on any candidate's short list.prediction Map

 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-10 @ 19:04:41
"I'd rather vote for a WOMAN than another MAN any day of the week"

A person's gender is a horrible reason to vote for them. This is proving to me moment after moment that Hillary's support is based off of pandering to the lowest common denominator.

Hillary's black support dropped after South Carolina -- in large part due to the Clinton campaign's (failed) attempts at exploiting racial and gender-related issues.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-10 @ 23:59:16
No different to voting for someone because of their race is it?
I think gender is a perfectly valid reason to vote for someone.
Especially when they are as competent & experienced as she is.
In your long history there has been no Woman President & it would be nice for a change.
They often see things differently & bring a new perspective to the job.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-11 @ 00:10:18
The NY Times has the Obama camp predicting Florida will be a battle ground state in November, I would say yes for Hillary but no to Obama.
What's with him not campaigning in West Virginia?
Apparently he has not been there since March 20!
No wonder Hillary is so far ahead!
& this is how he treats a state that should be amongst the first to go back to the Democrats!
Great strategy Guys!
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-11 @ 00:41:02
West Virginia is even less of a battleground state in the fall than it is now.

Obama should run the margins up in Oregon, realizing that only some states matter is of incredible importance in November.

The reality is that about 35-40 or more states don't matter in terms of Presidential politics because they are going to go Republican or Democrat until hell freezes over (in which case the margin of victory will be such that one state the size of WV wouldn't matter anyways since it'd be a national blowout).
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-11 @ 12:23:31
Obama will be in Charleston, WV tommorrow night.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-11 @ 20:37:46
West Virginia until George W Bush (that's this current President) was a consistently Democratic state, it's not one that I'd be writing off.
As the last 2 elections have shown - every state can make the difference!
It's good to see him put in an appearance, however token, I'm sure it will win him some votes.
I'd be very surprised to see Obama win a handful of counties here.
I guess wherever there's a big University he'll have to come close but other than that it should be a Hillary landslide!



Last Edit: 2008-05-11 @ 20:38:42
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-12 @ 13:59:14
According to polling to date, West Virginia is probably the only state in the Union that Clinton could put into play that Obama cannot. She claimed to be competitive against McCain in Kentucky for a while, but Research 2000 now has her 12 points back. I would expect a similar trend in WV. Residents in these states are pretty traditional, and aren't much more likely to support a woman than a black man.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-14 @ 07:19:42
Oh & um what about Florida? & Ohio?
She trumps him in both these crucial states, & Pennsylvania is looking increasingly shaky my friend under Obama's leadership, along with many other states I'm sure.
Watch out for Fall.
Be careful what you wish for!
I'm starting to have flashbacks to Kerry all over again!

Last Edit: 2008-05-14 @ 07:20:21
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-14 @ 17:14:58
West Virginia is irrelevant. Hillary Clinton has been defeated.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-14 @ 17:18:19
Obama is within 1 point of McCain in both Ohio & Florida, and 7-9 points up in PA.

Of course OH & FL would be critical to a Clinton candidacy. Obama significantly broadens the field, opening up a myriad of paths to 270+ electoral votes.

I understand and appreciate your concern. Being a Democrat is like being a Cubs fan - don't get too optimistic, lest your hopes be dashed!! You concerns will be allayed soon enough!
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-15 @ 08:35:32
Without any offense I would say West Virginia will be more relevant in this election than Indiana going on previous voting records Who.
I think both candidates have their strengths but in my biased but somewhat well read opinion I think Hillary's may just be broader & deeper than Obama's.
From what I've seen he is way behind in Flordia, & Ohio, but obviously these polls are fluid.
In the fall I think it may just be a case of retrospective wondering of what might have been under her candidacy.
Thanks for the optimisim though Win it is appreciated.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-19 @ 18:16:22
If Al Gore would have carried previously solidly democratic state of West Virginia well......prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-19 @ 23:03:42
Al Gore lost WV by over 6%. Kerry lost it by nearly 13%.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-20 @ 08:00:02
& I predict Obama maybe heading towards a 20% deficit there!
When Hillary would have easily won West Viginia IMO as did Bill on both occasions.
Unless the Recession deepens & the Economy becomes the no 1 issue, then he may just have a chance, if he effectively campaigns on this issue.


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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-20 @ 12:22:54
Yes and Al Gore should have never lost a old dominion democratic state that was my point. His coalition was large enough for the popular vote but came up short where it counted and HURT. Those Reagan Democrats voted for Bush in that part of the country and yes Bill Clinton had been able to win there running a bread and butter campaign.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-20 @ 12:23:59
The same argument holds for Kentucky where both Gore and Kerry lost by double digits yet Clinton carried same demographics that will be challenging(putting it mildly) for Obama.

Last Edit: 2008-05-20 @ 15:56:25
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-20 @ 21:16:53
Kentucky wasn't going to vote for Hillary either.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-20 @ 21:24:49
I just don't think anyone should be writing off old Democratic states like West Virginia, & Kentucky.
What next?
Minnesota, & Wisconsin?
We should be staying competitive in all these states.
Obama will have to creat a new coalition of states to win in states the Democrats have not won for a long time to win.
I'm not saying it's impossible but it's going to be interesting as he certainly is a long way behind in states like West Virginia, & Kentucky, & by not campaigning here, he has not helped he's chances at all in November.
A pretty stupid & dangerous policy if you ask me.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-20 @ 21:33:10
No, it isn't. Running a 50 state campaign is nice rhetorically, but the reality is that at LEAST 35 (and probably upwards of 40) states will reliably vote for one party regardless of what transpires between now and November.

You can disagree with that, but you're wrong if you do. The stupid and dangerous policy is engaging in a suicide bomber campaign when you know you've already lost the nomination for your party.



Last Edit: 2008-05-20 @ 21:33:56
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-21 @ 02:59:57
Well write em off & see where it gets you in November my friend, as it's been done before, recently by Kerry, & Gore, & look where it got them - aboslutely no where.
You are counting on all the previous Dem states voting the same this time, & that does not necessarily happen, so then you have to make up your losses elsewhere, but then if you have narrowed your options well...
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-21 @ 03:03:21
I would say previous Dem states at the moment that are looking shakey are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan?, Minnesota, Oregon.
Look at the big vote for McCain today in Oregon with the nomination sealed, He outpolled Hillary.
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 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-22 @ 21:27:43
Minnesota and Oregon (for BHO) are in good shape, as is Pennsylvania. New Hampshire & Michigan will need some work, but we'll get there once the nomination is in hand. Meanwhile, normally red Virginia and Colorado looking good for Obama, and Missouri, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, & Nevada well within reach. Thanks for your input. This has been fun.prediction Map

 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-30 @ 08:59:39
It has been fun.
I'm amazed at how detailed you guys are.
I just have opinions mostly.
haha
I think if the election goes on the personalities & not the issues then Obama is in big danger in all of those states you listed above.
I'd say his most healthy in Colorado.
But maybe I'm being too pessimistic.
I know after this week it's all about Obama!
rah rah rah!
Getting the pom poms out!
Unlike LIberal rocks!
haha

Last Edit: 2008-05-30 @ 09:00:29
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-30 @ 09:02:57
I really do hope he chooses Hillary as his running mate as I think this would have maximum impact & would keep most of her supporters on board.
He really does need her I think.
I couldn't possibly think of anyone being able to win more votes as VP then her at the moment, so if he chooses someone else it's a foolish choice in my opinion.
But that's if she wants it.
Who knows?
If not then I think he definitely needs to pick one of her high profile supporters like Bayh or Rendell.
Excuse the spelling if it's wrong.
I think big win for HRC in PR this weekend, & possible squeaker in South Dakota, but Obama should have another good win in Montana.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-06-03 @ 13:11:23
There is no reason to alienate someone that had the support of 48% of the party. Obama can't expect to mend fences with Iran and the world if he cannot mend them within the party.

I hope he is also willing to meet Hillary... without preconditions, so to speak.
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 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-06-03 @ 16:01:49
No my pom poms are already out for Mc Cain.
I have my Mc Cain bumper sticker right below my Hillary bumper sticker on my car which is the proposed plan of defiant Hillary supporters started by someone other then myself.
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 By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-06-08 @ 09:39:06
Well as a die hard Hillary supporter I feel gutted.
Great speeches this week by her though.
It will take me a while if at all to get excited about Obama.
Having said that I'm certainly not excited about aged & wooden McCain.
This may sound funny to some of my sparring partners here but I don't see colour, I just see another man.
It's such a shame to see such a terrific opportunity lost in having such a terrific woman candidate in Hillary for Pres.
I'm not sure you'll get opportunities like that again in a hurry if you are wanting a strong viable female candidate.
I certainly hope so though.
I hope all those women who voted for Obama are just feeling a tinge of regret at this moment.
It may be a historic week but it is also in the fact that a woman candidate has failed with their lack of sufficient support.
Just my opinion.

Last Edit: 2008-06-08 @ 09:40:09
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 585/661 332/661 917/1322 69.4% pie


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