Election 2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-04-23 Version:19

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	19
Edwards	0
Obama	33
Richardson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Clinton	0
Edwards	0
Obama	0
Richardson	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

So here we are in the post Pennslyvania Democratic primary era. When will all the fun stop? Not any time soon I hope, lol. Onward to the convention. Go Operation Chaos! Hey you can't blame a Republican for trying right ;)

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-23 @ 06:14:19
I don't know why you're still a Republican! Come on over to the Dems! It certainly has been more interesting to watch this year that is for sure. If Operation Chaos nets Hillary some votes I'm all for it - go you good things. lol

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-23 @ 06:16:25
I think you may want to adjust North Carolina down from 60% - I haven't seen any polls showing that sort of strength for Obama recently. With white voters lining up behind Clinton & African Americans lining up behind Obama I think this just maybe more of a showdown than anyone thinks.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 09:05:21
Operation Chaos is Hillary's only chance to win Indiana. In PA and OH this "Bubba feels your pain" message sold to more people because those states are more receptive to Democratic ideals in general than Indiana. The economy and the media market cannot bail out Hillary here. Nor can any decade old political machine. The difference between OH, PA, WV and IN is one of political culture. Indiana is far more Republican than any of those other states. Hillary needs the culturally conservative, not college educated, low-income rural vote (even more overwhelmingly Republican in this state). Republicans. That is, Operation Chaos. With anti-Clinton sentiment so high here these votes will never go for Clinton without Operation Chaos. Rush would do well to follow the steps of Richard Mellon Scaife. Hillary needs the Limbaugh endorsement to pull this out. Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 09:08:52

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 13:00:04
Current multiple term senator Evan Bayh can only help her in the state I would assume he would know how to strategize and send the campaign into area's of the state that would lean in her direction to maximize turnout and increase her base. Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 13:00:41

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 14:02:35
I think the Bayh endorsement has ran its course here already and he can't exactly re-endorse her :P

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 14:08:01
Demographics didn't help Hillary a lick in PA. She won PA because of the economy, the old 90s Clinton machine, the NYC media market, and high senior population. She cannot count on any of these for Indiana. Demographics will only help her break even her, if that. I expect Obama to win this state by a good amount. Want to bet on this, Liberalrocks or CR? =P

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 14:54:08
I dont bet, but I should have taken you up on your last offer, maybe you should be a tad bit more reserved in your predictions lol.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 16:39:08
Well, I've done better than anyone else on this site. :P Are you bitter and clinging to your guns and religion?

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 17:06:15
No but apparently 55% of Pennsylvania and Ohio are. :P

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-23 @ 18:11:49
Fair enough, and I'd agree 55% of those states were indeed bitter. But I don't think the rank and file Clinton machine Democrats are going to carry Indiana on their own for Hillary. She needs crossover Republicans, since Independents should easily favor Obama. Operation Chaos is Hillary's only real remaining shot at Indiana and the nomination (not that winning Indiana would really mean she wins the nomination, of course).

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 18:53:22
ofcourse lol..........

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-23 @ 19:13:21
Good to see the discussion to my new map trasitioned nicely. Glad to have you all here. With so many posts I'm unsure where to start so I guess I'll just begin at the top and work my way down. demboy - Join the Democrats, parish the thought. In fact as a Republican I am having a lot of fun watching your primary race from our side. But still glad that Operation Chaos could provide you with some entertainment. I'll have to think about your North Carolina comments. I may readjust things in the coming days depending on what I see out of the race. whoblizell - Of course I'm bitter and clinging to guns and God. Obama has me all figured out! LOL. I agree with you that Indiana is more Republican territory. I may end up being just what Hillary needs. Rush already has Operation Chaos targeting it as a prime objective. We can go without North Carolina. I hope the small town attitude of Indiana will play in her favor. Liberal - Ah liberal what can I say. Hill got Pennslyvania and you'll never run her out now. Not with that 10 point win. She's in till the convention imo. And I say take it to Denver Hillary ! Operation Chaos!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 23:04:56
CR : These anti-obama North Carolina ads running via pro-republican independent groups attacking rev wright and other obama baggage may bring his lead down slightly there, we will have to wait and see. Its funny Hillary isnt barely on the air yet in that state, they are giving her a head start. Just think, you guys thought Hillary had more baggage and yet it continues to flood out of obama, oh the unknowns. You guys are going to kick his a** in the fall. Hillary would have given you a fight she's use to fighting you guys, Is obama?.... Well I guess I shouldnt say "you guys" as I likely will be in your court this fall. Hillary 2012 ! unless she brokers a deal lol. Last Edit: 2008-04-23 @ 23:13:16

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-23 @ 23:08:39
CR : Im starting to hear more Republicans like Haley in Mississippi or Gceres out here in California say they would rather run against Obama now where as before they were dieing to run against Hillary. They see him as being able to scare more voters then Hillary as she is still more well known, like her or not. They see his weaknesses and her strengths in Ohio and Pennsylvania particuliarly in the exit polls/demographics. Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 12:27:46

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 00:52:27
Then why are they running ads against him and not her? Your logic fails.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-24 @ 01:29:05
Because he is the FRONT RUNNER and they believe she has no chance of winning. With Hillary still in the race it keeps her supporters on the fence to a point that the republican 527's can bloody him up some more and bring more of his past to light. Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 01:50:43

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-24 @ 17:52:48
Ah and the chaos continues on. Take it to Denver!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 19:30:01
I think even in meltdown scenarios, this thing ends early July/late June at the latest. Super delegates won't have much of a reason to sit on the fence once voting ends.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-24 @ 21:21:28
It's great for Hillary to get the free advertising from the Republicans in NC. She should really work the rural parts & the suburbs of this state. I think her biggest argument at the moment is the fact that she's won every large state except Illinois - Obama's home turf. She also is ahead in the popular vote if you count Florida & Michigan. Every one knew who they were voting for in these 2 states. They turned out in record numbers regardless of the theatrics between the states & the DNC over moving the date forward. I bet PA wished they had moved forward too rather than enduring a 6 week campaign - longer than most countries hold their own elections! It would certainly save alot of money also. But I see the point that a long campaign vets inexperienced or unknown or untested candidates such as Obama. The longer the campaign the more chance for them to slip up & hold views that become unelectable. Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 21:22:59

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-24 @ 21:30:14
I think you can count Florida, but the count in Michigan is not valid as obambi's name wasnt on the ballot. So he has a razor thin margin in the popular vote. They do need to seat both delegations however and the dnc needs to come up with some plan...

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-24 @ 22:28:03
Fair enough. I'd say give them half-voting power and seat them with giving the uncommitted delegates in Michigan as pledged delegates to Obama. Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 22:28:29

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-24 @ 22:49:37
But you forget the true purpose of the Super Delegates. They were conceived after McGovern lost in 1972. The up and ups in the Democratic party wanted to make sure the people didn't choose another loser. They wanted the ability to overturn the decisions of the primaries if they felt that said candidate was unelectible. Hillary will win Kentucky, West Virginia, PR, and maybe Indiana. She'll be within 150 pledge delegates and, if trend continue, about 2000 - 4000 votes short of the popular margin. She'll see no reason to get out. In fact I bet she spends the summer trying to convence the supers that Obama is unelectible. I don't know what will happen to Michigan and Florida but if she thinks it will top her popular vote then she'll fight for them. My point is Hillary has the power to draw it out all the way to the convention. Some supers are members of congress and in districts favoring Hillary. They may worry about getting reelected if they don't vote a certain way. Look it may not go to Denver but it most certainly could. Put it this way, if it was like this between Romney and McCain I'd be nervous. Last Edit: 2008-04-24 @ 22:50:14

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-25 @ 00:55:55
The supers chose Mondale over Hart in 1984. See how that turned out? I suppose that only reinforces CR's view.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-25 @ 22:36:36
That relies upon her winning Indiana though, CR. She is out of money and looking at the map running out of real estate. The problem for Hillary then is that she has to win (in the media's judgment) Indiana. And it just isn't going to happen that way. Wait and see, she will be blown away here. This is where the Clinton dynasty ends and Operation Chaos probably isn't enough to save her. My Republican friend listens to Rush and he explained it this way to me. "Yeah it's fun to watch the Demmys rip themselves apart, but I hate the Clintons. I'd rather be part of finishing her off now and here so that they never see the inside of the White House again." Last Edit: 2008-04-25 @ 22:36:50

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-26 @ 04:54:31
Whatever. I don't see any blow out in the polls. I know it's hard for you to believe you maybe in the minority & not the majority on primary day in Indiana. Oh how sweet it will be. GO H I L L A R Y !

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-26 @ 06:17:48
Well Whoblitzell we have encountered a lot of people like that. I too don't want the Clinton's back in the White House but right now Hillary is a serving a purpose. I think Indiana will be close and that she can win it. Note the use of the word can, which means she may well lose too. But either way, knowing the Clintons, she'll stay in. Believe I'm ready for the dynasties of Clinton and Bush to be finished. But right now we need Hillary for Operation Chaos.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-26 @ 14:47:43
Well as I said before, it's her only chance fo winning here and carrying it on for a few more weeks. If she gets blown out here and in NC then it's game over.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-26 @ 15:26:14
Prehapse but then again maybe not. If she can keep the votes close as they are now, even with him ahead I doubt she'll quite. I don't say that because I'm a hopeful Republican although that is a part of it but because I know the Clintons. She won't stop for anyone. Nor will Bill. In all I think she'll continue to work to get Michigan and Florida to count. And its not to get the delegates but the popular vote. If she could use them and catch or beat Obama in the popular contest then she can make a case to the super delegates that not only is he supposibly unelectible but also that she is the people's choice. Should be an interesting race to watch indeed.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 01:35:57
And how, CR, do you believe she will get them, the rogue FL & MI promary results, to count?? The supers don't want a credentials fight, and will likely give Obama a margin that will make any Florida and Michigan delegations irrelevent. The credentials committee has 25 members appointed directly by Dean. It will not agree that the rogue elections should count. I could see it allowing each state to seat half of its delegations, split 50/50 between Obama & Clinont delegates. It will not do more.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 05:48:20
In our country we call this a gerrymander - when some votes count more than others. Democracy be damned!

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 05:52:20
Why criticise Bush for stealing Florida from Gore in 2000? Sounds like you've taken a page straight out of his rule book in stealing the Florida result in this year's primary! As I said previously Florida & Michigan voters should pledge if their votes are not counted in the primary they will not vote Democrat in the general election. Let's see how that changes the minds of Dean & his cronies. Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 05:53:00

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-27 @ 10:58:57
Well we will just have to see what Dean and the upper ups do won't we? Hillary can even make the case that with Florida and Michigan she leads in the popular vote. And she'll make the case to the supers that she is more electible. Hillary need only sway enough of them to bar Obama from the 2025 mark. Then she can go to the convention and try to get nominated on the second ballot. But that is just a theory.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-27 @ 13:37:49
Thats what Ive been thinking all along CR, I think it will be similiar to the Ford/Reagan convention although Mc Cain is not seen as such a strong opposing candidate More of Hillarys supporters then his would defect from the ticket if she loses thats also the argument she will make to the super's over 25% of her voters would vote for Mc Cain where as obama's numbers are quite a bit lower then that as he takes the hard liberal vote which hates Mc Cain with a passion. Yes Obamatons, it could happen I dont care what you say !! Last Edit: 2008-04-27 @ 13:39:47

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 18:18:39
A few flaws with your theory, CR: Clinton cannot make a credible argument that she is ahead in the popular vote, nor will she be able to, barring a drastic turnaround, at the end of the contests. No one will buy that they should credit Hill with votes in Michigan where Obama was not on the ballot. That is the only plausible way she could come out ahead. Clinton will have to convince 200-220 supers to hold off declaring their preference for the candidate that will likely have a lead of 100+ in pledged delegates and thus cause the contest to be unresolved, with likely severely detrimental consequences to the party's candidate in the fall, in the face of nearly all Democratic leaders calling for the to declare. Why would so many choose to do so? 50 or 60 have declared in the past month. That trend will continue and accellerate as the final contests conclude. Obama will reach 2025 by mid-June. Regarding MI & FL, the Rules Committee meets May 31, and could well determine that issue then.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-27 @ 20:16:15
Spoken like a true obama supporter....

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-27 @ 20:52:07
Trust me, Hillary will pull out all the stops to win this thing. She has dreamed of this forever, and she knows that after a primary race like this and given her high negatives she'll never get another chance at the presidency. Not only that I don't think either she or Bill are pleased to have this "young upstart" from Illinois beat them when they feel entitled to this. The super delegates are also as I have said members of congress. Some may live in districts that prefer Hillary be their choice and their own reelection may matter to them. Plus these delegates are not pledged so Hillary may pick up a few and delay the rest but any of both Hillary and Obama's are free to change their minds. If Hilary is successful in painting Obama as unelectible then some supers may think twice. And who knows what little Obama secrets the Clinton machine may have dug up and is waiting to release. Or what gaffs could be made in the weeks to come. I'm also not so sure that Hillary is not the prefered candidate of some of the supers despite what they say about going along with the people. Michigan and Florida will have to get resolved somehow and Hillary will fight for them as long and as hard as it takes. My point is, till Obama reaches the magic 2025 mark she can stay in. And I am willing to bet she does everything in her power to prevent that mark from being reached. She is after all a Clinton. Still the damage is done whether it ends in June or at the convention. It would just be more useful to have it fought out in Denver. We'll see.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-27 @ 21:45:42
I think the best spin to have come out of this campaign so far is that of the Obama camp making out that he is the presumptive nominee already. Laughable & contemptible at the same time.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-27 @ 22:29:05
CR I would not count Hillary out of a 2012 run as much as that would scare you again. A lot can happen in 4 years she would only be able to run again if obama were to lose. Her negatives are particuliarly high because of the hard fought campaign these are the clintons they have risen from the dead several times you know this to be true CR so a 2012 run is not out of the question. Demboy lol agreed.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 22:43:13
I agree CR, she will do all she can to win. The question is, what can she do? If she looses Indiana, he money, already tight, will dry up. If Obama reaches 2025 despite her efforts, there will be very little she can do to change that, aside from waiting for a major Obama blunder. The Obama campaign has not claimed he is the presumptive nominee. Being ahed by 160+ delegates and by 800K votes is pretty close, though. The biggest spin coming out of the Clinton campign is that she has won the most votes. Maybe it was her inferring that she has foreign policy experience required of a president, and that Obama does not. Now those are a couple of contemptable claims.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:25:56
I haven't seen anything out of the Obama camp that suggests he already has it in the bag. I think it is a fair statement to say Hillary has a very small chance of winning this though. As I said before, I personally feel she should stay in until Michigan and Florida are resolved and/or she does not believe she can win. My beef with her campaign right now is that she is running a negative campaign and it's hurting her electoral chances as much as Obama's. It's bad for the party.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-27 @ 23:31:01
MI/FL could be resolved as early as the rules committee meeting May 31.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-28 @ 03:47:34
Obama is running negative also. It's a two way street. I guess it's hard when they are competing against each other but have many similar points of view. This is politics, I wouldn't take it too personally especially when most of it's not that nasty. It would be nice for them to stay on the issues & yeah attack John McCain rather than each other.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-28 @ 09:26:47
I wholeheartedly agree!!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-28 @ 14:12:14
Reverend Wright please continue to speak out!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-28 @ 22:31:04
The main reason for Obama's problems now are media invented scandals. As comical as most people here will find the statement, I believe the media is now fundamentally conservatively biased. And not just Fox News. CNN, PBS, MSNBC, etc. It's obvious the media has a vested interest in this race continuing. It is a ratings bonanza. And that's what the Wright "controversy" is really about. I mean seriously, who gives a crap? The man isn't running for President. He is a no-name minister from Illinois. This isn't news. It isn't even relevant to presidential politics. Last Edit: 2008-04-28 @ 22:32:29

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-29 @ 02:04:37
You're right that is comical given the fact that the media is in the left's pocket. Oh sure we conservatives have an out let with Rush and talk radio and we get a good portion of FOX News but that's about it. CNN and the rest are firmly liberal in orientation. They just can't make up their minds about who to support - Hillary or Obama. At first they were all over the Clintons. Then Obama became their guy when it looked as though he would win. And now they don't know what to do. As for Wright, well plenty of voters care. He has said some pretty discusting stuff and it is very relevant to a number of people in the electorate. The company you keep so they say. And it really matters to swing voters. Obama has him self a problem with Wright and I would do all I could to distance myself where I in his position.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-29 @ 03:09:52
Well it is interesting. Since early March, Obama has gone from a net +33 favorable to +13. Hillary has fallen from +16 to -2. McCain went from +20 to +10. Clintonian politics is a beautiful thing, I suppose. In the off-event that Hillary wins the democratic nomination, I expect that my generation (including myself) will not vote. If she wins in a very underhanded manner, I will probably never vote Democrat again and eternally refer to the party as the "democratic" party.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-29 @ 06:59:45
I wouldn't get stuck on personalities so much, it's the policies that count in the long run & the 2 are very very similar in most things. That's why I will barrack for Obama (haha play on words) in November if he wins the nomination. Time heals all wounds. I don't think Hillary will try to win this in a "very underhanded manner", she has class, & I think you should cut her some slack. I think if she looses she will leave this thing very gracefully indeed. As Dean said this is a tie basically, it's split 50-50. So whoever wins has won in a nail biter. But it is also a competition & obviously no one is going to throw in the towel without putting up their very best efforts! Latest Survey USA poll in Indiana has Hillary up 9 points over Obama, a swing of 14 points on their last poll which had Obama up 5! Interesting... Also great news was the governor of NC endorsing Hillary! Awesome. Let's hope that gives her a boost in a state she needs to keep competitive. PS I got my Hillary Clinton badges today off ebay & have put them on my "man bag" ie work bag. Yes she's here in Australia too! grin Last Edit: 2008-04-29 @ 07:04:52

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-29 @ 11:52:15
Good for you demboy it aint over yet !!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-29 @ 12:11:08
Take it to Denver!!!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-29 @ 16:31:39
He really should have thrown Wright under the bus from the beginning. I think the controversy would have died at that point.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 00:37:22
SUSA's last poll had Clinton +16. This one is more in line with the +5/-5 range seen in other polls, but not quite. Obama has picked up 3 supers in the past two days, from KY, NM & IA, an additional delegate from an Iowa Congressional District convention, and seven superdelegates known as the "Pelosi club" - one previously supporting Clinton - that have promised to vote for the winner of the most pledged delegates. Therefore, Obama is up 11 delegates, and the super count is virtually tied. Obama is on an upswing!!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 00:52:30
Hmmm.... Thats not the mood around the country that is portrayed in the media to the remaining uncommitted super delegates.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 00:55:58
That's right given the fact that Hillary has picked up a couple super delegates of her own and the endorsements of both the govenors of North Carolina and Oregon. If Hillary is going to make a move its now or never. I imagine that the camp Clinton was busy on the phones to day calling supers like mad. Keep in mind if the supers suspect Obama to be unelectible they may move for Hillary. Or at least give her enough to stop Obama from reaching 2025. I tend to agree with Liberal on this one. Take it to Denver!!!

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 01:14:18
Check out Bonn's prediction, after conservatively predicting the remaining contests, that Clinton will net 4 delegates, and Obama will be 65 from 2025. I doubt he included the recent changes in his model, so perhaps 55. I don't think the winner of the pledged count will have much of a problem corraling 55-65 out of 300 undeclared supers in the next month or so.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 01:37:17
Bonn has all but endorsed Obama.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 01:38:29
Those supers aren't pledge though. If she keeps him from 2025 even by one delegate she can drag this thing out and maybe even flip a few. And some supers may not want to declare till the convention for the sake of their own careers. But whatever the out come the divisions are in already in place. To Denver we go!

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 02:07:03
I don't think it is at all unreasonable that 60-65 super delegates come forward by the end of June and push Obama over the top to avoid the party splitting in Denver. The dream of Operation Chaos cannot be fully realized because in the end politicians are self-serving. If it means throwing Hillary and Bubba off the cliff to win the White House then that will be done. And in this sense, it doesn't really matter who wins what states coming up. All it changes is the media narrative and a few super delegate votes. Pelosi and Dean tipped their hands already. Hillary can't swing the nomination even if she can cost Obama the election. Obama might not win in November, but Hillary needs more than double the remaining super delegates Obama will by the end of June. She will need far more than a majority, she will need a fundamental game changer. While Wright is a speed bump for Obama, it is not a game changer. It hasn't significantly boosted her own standing against McCain in many states and Obama continues to run equal or better than her against him. I'm not sure she can really rely on so-called elect-ability in general to convince. She also needs the popular vote, I believe. Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 02:22:05

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 02:14:07
That is if the supers think Obama is electible as of June. And never underestimate the Clintons. Besides Operation Chaos has already served its purpose, from here on out its bonus. Over the hills and through the woods to Denver we shall go.....

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 02:22:32
I reply by accident in my modification. This is probably not going to Denver, but it is possible.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 02:24:57
Even the possiblity of going to Denver with this thing makes me excited!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 02:26:01
As long as there are enough supporters such as myself funding her This is going to Denver baby !!! Then we go to Mc Cain if we are not successful

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-04-30 @ 06:36:43
Good on you Liberalrocks! I would donate too if I could. Alas the rules against foreign intervention. lol I can "loan" you some if you run out! haha Yes Denver it is! I think possibly the biggest issue that will come out of this campaign is the fact so many people had written the Clintons off. Dumb dumb dumb. A lot can change in 1 day of politics let alone in the next few months. Hillary seems to be on the up & up in both Indiana where she looks now likely to win, & North Carolina. The endorsement of the NC governor should prove helpful. Kentucky & WV are going to be a massacre for Obama - in the same way he won Wyoming, Minnesota et al. & Oregon is certainly up for grabs! Awesome work from Team Hillary! Obama's surrogates on cable are looking increasingly ragged & desperate. Last Edit: 2008-04-30 @ 06:38:28

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 11:44:33
From HRC's interview with the Indianapolis Star's editorial board: Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday it would be "the height of political foolishness" for Democrats to back a Republican, or not vote at all, if they're disappointed by the outcome of the long-running nomination battle between her and Barack Obama. "Anyone, anyone, who voted for either of us should be absolutely committed to voting for the other" in the general election, Clinton said during an hourlong meeting with The Indianapolis Star Editorial Board. "I'm going to shout that from the mountaintops and the valleys and everywhere I can, no matter what the outcome of the nominating process is." Let the healing begin. Oh, and add another to the list of supers pledged for Obama - Indiana's 9th District Congressman Baron Hill. That makes 12 in the last few days.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 12:34:55
Mc Cain 2008. I dont agree with her on every issue wing,

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 13:28:10
In the words of your hero, Hillary Clinton, your choice (which you are certainly entitled to) would be the height of political foolishness. I strongly agree with Mrs. Clinton's judgment on this issue.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-04-30 @ 14:01:07
Voting for McCain because your candidate doesn't win is incredibly immature and shows you don't really have any actual belief in the principles of liberalism or the Democratic party. So I'm assuming this is largely grandstanding on the part of most of her supporters.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 14:17:30
Yes I would defy my "hero" on that issue because I vote for the person who I think is best suited and qualified to take over the most important job in the world. Mc Cain 2008. I would like to also be able to vote for someone who I agree with 90% of the time which would be Clinton so we shall see...

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 14:17:56
Reps. Lois Capps (CA) and Bruce Braley (IA) are now endorsing Obama. This is turning into a stampede!! Obama is now 285 from clinching the nomination.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 14:21:13
LOL a stampede yeah we shall see how NC and Indiana vote if she loses both I will be concerned.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 14:40:19
:P

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 14:41:42
Well my vote in the democratic stronghold may not count for Mc Cain in such a Obama Mc Cain scenario but my phonebank volunteer time donations and fundraising can only help.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 16:06:19
Hillary has to say things like I'll support the nominee or she'll be dead in the Democratic party. Its for her own survival. Talk is one thing, action another. The divisions are in place and the wounds will not heal quickly. That goes for whether this thing ends now or in Denver. I wonder how long some supers will stick since they are not pledged.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-04-30 @ 16:37:49
The above words, though granted qualify as 'talk' are pretty strong. Good point about the supers. One of the "Pelosi club" that promised to vote for the winner of the pledged delegates had been a Clinton supporter. McCain and Romney didn't take long to kiss and make up.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 16:46:14
Mc Cain and Romney didnt duke it out for this long eithier.....

By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-30 @ 18:55:26
This is true. Romney dropped out after Super Tuesday for quote "the good of the party." And the reaction to McCain was intense. But after seeing what the Democrats have to offer us and that we don't control congress most Republicans are voting for McCain out of necessity. The Democratic race on the other hand has been brutal. And she can say what she wants. Hillary is probably mad as hell at being up started by Obama. This young pup from Illinois. She has also said in the past that McCain was probably more qualified and has even agree with him on some things such as the gas tax. In any case I'm more confident about the fall than I was a couple of months ago. We'll see where the next few months take us.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-04-30 @ 21:32:31
"The Democratic race on the other hand has been brutal. And she can say what she wants. Hillary is probably mad as hell at being up started by Obama. This young pup from Illinois. She has also said in the past that McCain was probably more qualified and has even agree with him on some things such as the gas tax." Yes thats why I will support donate to and phone bank for John Mc Cain if she cant upset this "pup"

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-01 @ 01:55:53
You will be voting for 4 more years of Bush, Lib. Hope you can sleep at night.

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-01 @ 03:09:25
CR is correct. Hillary has to make nice to a certain degree, if nothing more than to save Bill's legacy. If Obama gets to 2025 before Denver that is basically game over. If she loses the popular vote (by her metric of counting Michigan and Florida) then she is in big trouble as well.

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-01 @ 05:05:36
Well the latest Inside Advantage poll for NC has a swing to Hillary of 17 points! She is now ahead by 2 I think it was. Yeeha! Praying for an upset! I have a very good feeling for Hill about these next few races. She may even do a clean sweep like Obama did after Super Tuesday. Stranger things have happened. It would be so sweet. Your man just maybe in trouble then. She certainly would have the momentum going forward to the convention regardless of whether she was behind in the pledged delegates. I know it's an out there scenario but...

By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-05-01 @ 17:57:49
Well with Wright out of the news, I don't think she can win NC. I'm betting most of those undecided are Obama voters with second thoughts (not unlike myself). I'm going to a Hillary rally on Saturday. And despite the fact I have no intention of voting for her, I want to give her a fair shake for November if she should somehow steal the nomination with a last minute rule change. For one, this isn't going to the convention. That isn't in her interest or Obama's. If it goes to the convention, McCain wins easily. One of them will get the nomination by the end of June or early July and it is highly likely to be Obama.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-05-01 @ 19:27:16
Friends I'm shutting down this map and moving over to version 20. You are all welcome to come. I've updated some of my precentages to reflect a slight change in the race given some of Obama's controversies as of late. Hillary moves into the 50% in Indiana while Obama moves down in North Carolina to the 50% range. Montana and South Dakota are unchanged for Obama but I've increased Hillary's wins in Kentucky, West Virginia, and PR. Oregon is temporarily still with Obama but we'll see what the days ahead bring. See you on verison 20!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-05-01 @ 21:48:29
Please be nice to her whoblitzell, she is a really nice woman just wait until you see her in person, hmm you may even....nah never mind. Ok CR see you on version 20 Last Edit: 2008-05-01 @ 21:49:03

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-05-01 @ 22:14:31
Who is a woman???

By: demboy73 (D-AUS) 2008-05-02 @ 06:06:22
I'm sure her rally will be enlightening at the very least. It may change your vote. Is this the audacity of hope? lol

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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