ARG has scared me into backing off a bit on Obama's chances of winning South Dakota. I still think he'll do it, but it might not be the 20+% blowout I was anticipating.

I'm probably going to regret giving Obama such wide victory margins in both Montana and South Dakota, but between him doing very well in the surrounding states (granted, many of which had caucuses) and the MSM discounting Hillary entirely, I think Obama has a chance to make a killing next week.

Obama will win Oregon by a healthy margin, but Clinton will absolutely KILL in Kentucky. It's too bad for her that Kentucky and West Virginia couldn't have been earlier in the primary season, when they might have mattered.

Clinton is finally about to win a primary by the margin she's needed to win every primary by for the past couple months to remain competitive in delegate count.

It'll be interesting to see if the media will spin this as Successful Hillary Comeback #34B or if Obama's repeated public assurances that he's gonna get creamed in West Virginia will hamper that effect.

Clinton takes Indiana, Obama takes North Carolina, and the never-ending primary marches on.

Clinton will most likely get her narrow win in PA tomorrow -- and it won't help her a bit in the long run.

Obama will have the momentum at the end of the big primary gap. It's a good position to be in.

Obviously, the seven delegates awarded will be nothing compared with the media frenzy that will hit in tomorrow's aftermath ("zomg Obama has bounced back from his crushing defeat on Tuesday!").

Once you add up the upcoming four primaries, Clinton and Obama will very nearly tie for the day, both in terms of popular vote and delegates won. But Clinton needs more than a tie. Obama can afford one.

I'm less sure now than ever.

I'm sticking to my Version 1 story, but I tossed New Hampshire Clinton's way based on recent polling, and bumped Obama down to the 20-30% range in Iowa based on the virtual 3-way tie and Biden and Richardson's decent following. I also scaled back the percentages on Clinton's later wins just a little.

Nothing like a good primary election prediction -- with 56 possible outcomes for each state and none of them completely out of the question -- to drive my accuracy percentage into the ground. I must be a masochist for even trying this. Anywho, I will now attempt to justify my prediction by telling a story that seems far-fetched, but so would any justification of state-by-state primary predictions:

Obama opens strong in Iowa. He finishes just barely ahead of Hillary and gets a ton of press. The Obama camp is ecstatic, and when Obama goes on to just barely inch New Hampshire away from Clinton, they are positive he will be the next POTUS. They know if they can just take Michigan, it will be the end of Clinton's reign. Unfortunately for them, Clinton is just too strong there, and the hopes of Gore vs Bradley style blowout are eliminated. The race is once again on.

Before the Nevada caucus, many of the second tier candidates -- Biden, Dodd, Gravel, possibly Kucinich -- drop out of the race. Edwards is the only real other contender, and he is stuck as a far third in most of the coming primaries. Clinton takes the Nevada caucus, Obama takes the South Carolina primary, and Clinton wins commandingly in Florida. All eyes turn to Super Tuesday to break the virtual tie...

...And Super Tuesday is very good to Clinton. With the exception of Illinois, Clinton takes every state, and her long-time lead in the national primary polls finally starts to show itself. Obama finishes second in every state except Oklahoma (where he comes in third to Edwards) and New Mexico (where he comes in third to Richardson).

Now that the Clinton campaign finally has momentum, the 2008 Dem primary ends as most primaries do: with one candidate mercilessly slaughtering the others. By this point, everyone but Clinton, Obama and Edwards have dropped out, and Edwards' inability to carry a single state has turned all but his most loyal followers away (most of them flock to Clinton). Clinton takes every other state (and Puerto Rico) by ever-increasing margins. She goes on to be the Democratic Party's nominee and, hopefully, the next POTUS.

How likely is it things will really go just (or anything) like this? Just take a glance at my confidence map...

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