PredictionsMock2008 Dem Presidential Primary Predictions - somenerdyfreak (L-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-14 Version:1

Prediction Map
somenerdyfreak MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
somenerdyfreak MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton18
 
Edwards19
 
Obama13
 
Richardson0
 
Other2
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Clinton8
 
Edwards0
 
Obama4
 
Richardson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup40
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
13130
piepiepie

Analysis

New England-I think this region will be strongly Clintonic, except Maine, where she will win narrowly over O!Bomba!

Mid Atlantic-Clinton will have an easy time winning the commies up in NY, and NJ she'll win narrowly over Obama. Pennsylvania I can see going more for Obama, although Hillary has a lot of support there, so it'll be real close. Delaware could be Edwards, I dont know why though. In MD, Hillary will have some narrow success in a close threeway, and DC will be Obama. WV will go for Edwards by a large majority.

Deep South-Beside South Carolina (which I think will go Hillary), I believe the Deep South will be strongly Edwards. I think this because people down that way tend to be less accepting of blacks and chicks.

Shallow South-Less of that "its a black/girl, so dont vote for him/her" mentality here. I think Edwards will have a super-narrow win in VA, with a surprising Hillary victory in NC. Tennessee will be home to a narrow Clinton victory as well, but Kentucky will favor Edwards.

Florida-Obama can pull off a 3 or 4 point victory here.

Texas-Edwards will get about 40-50% here, with the same mentality (although to a lesser degree) as the Deep South.

Midwest-Because of the fact that Obama and Edwards aren't on the Michigan ballot, Hillary will win here. She'll also pack a mild victory in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, Illinois will be powerfully in favor of Obama, and that influence will leak into Indiana, Ohio, and Missoura.

Great Plains/Boring States- Going from Oklahoma to North Dakota, Edwards will win but as you go further north his support will grow less and less, with about 40,50% in Oklahoma but about 35% or so in North Dakota/Montana. In Idaho, Obama will have a strong win.

Sou'wester-Utah is gonna be a heavy Edwards state, with Nevada also giving Edwards a fair lead. Arizona will be a victory for Obama but not by too far, Colorodo and New Mexico will be strongly Obamic.

Cali and such-California is gonna be super-duper-musiclooper close, but Hillary is gonna win. In Oregon she'll win again closely, but not as tight as in California. In Washington Hillary will favorably win.

Other weirdo states-Clinton takes Alaska, dont know why. Obama gets Hawaii and PR cus of the minorities being a majority there.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 43/56 17/56 60/112 53.6% pie 1 295 1330T1,505
P 2008 Governor 9/11 7/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 294 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 13/52 0/52 13/104 12.5% pie 1 - 218T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 13/49 1/49 14/98 14.3% pie 1 - 191T235
Aggregate Predictions 78/168 25/168 103/336 30.7% pie


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