Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-02-04 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	36
Romney	7
Thompson	0
Huckabee	1
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	33
Romney	4
Thompson	0
Huckabee	1
Other	0
Tossup	6

Analysis

Feb 4 My final prediction on the eve of Super Tuesday

Mc Cain still appears to have a huge lead on most states and the all important delegate rich states. Romney has cut into his lead somewhat in California but Arnold Schwartzenegger has also been barnstorming the state with other elected Republican officials and the California republican establishment for Mc Cain. Romney must win or come within a couple of points of Mc Cain to score substantial delegates. He must also in my opinion do well in the west and keep many of the vote counts close in order to win delegates. I also believe he must win a southern state Georgia Tennessee or Oklahoma but with Huckabee on the ballot that will be hard to do as he does take votes Romney would need to be the conservative alternative to Mc Cain. Huckabee looks dead upon Super Tuesday entry!! not ahead in any state but Arkansas? He may be lucky and win Alabama but I dont think so. His outside chances would be the southern states Alabama Georgia Tennessee and his home state. He will carry Arkansas only. Mc Cain will sweep the northeast and mid atlantic Romney will carry only Massachusetts which could be closer then expected as Mc Cain has campaigned there hard for whatever strange reason if Romney does well or wins California tommorow that will be a partial reason and Romney has advertised in California. I still say Strong Advantage Mc Cain the best Romney can hope for is that Mc Cain doesnt have an outright win of delegates and that again the race stays competitive which at this point seems unlikely. Will the conservatives split with Huckabee and Romney? Will they rally behind the underdog Romney to derail Mc Cain? I say yes, but not enough Mc Cain will win moderates and a small enough number of conservatives to win big. Strong conservatives and evangelicals split between Romney and Huckabee

Mc Cain Wins the Nomination Big........

Please offer some feed back after all Im not a republican??
What are you guys gonna do Will it be an upset?

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-04 @ 23:12:24
This one is Mc Cains to lose

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-04 @ 23:24:20
Romney could win in a couple more states - I call Minn. & WV for him - but not enough. The race will essentially be over after tommorrow. Many of these Huckabee voters, especially in the South, will not vote for flip-flopping Romney. They'd prefer right to lifer for life McCain. Ron Paul begins preparing for his Libertarian bid - if he hasn't already.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-05 @ 16:11:31
Romney MUST win my homestate of California to stay in this race !!!! He will lose to many others to stay competitive I still dont see he pulling it off but I wouldnt mind seeing this upset. Mc Cain wins Super Tuesday BIG! Last Edit: 2008-02-05 @ 16:13:56

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-06 @ 14:45:53
Totally underestimated Hucks pull in the south but I dont feel bad so did the polls and the media. Once again the polls were wrong. Romney also did NOT do well or wasnt even competitive in California. Mc Cain had a good night but not as good as he should have. He still looks very much like the likely nominee though, Romney had as expected a bad night lol yet he continues lol.... Last Edit: 2008-02-07 @ 02:05:20

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	34/35	26/35	60/70	85.7%	1	4	48	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	1	4	88	T	272
2020 President	50/56	36/56	86/112	76.8%	9	6	529	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	4	337	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	5	51	T	293
2018 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%	5	0	334	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	25/36	58/72	80.6%	3	2	56	T	372
2016 President	48/56	29/56	77/112	68.8%	14	0	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	17/34	47/68	69.1%	7	0	213	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	6/12	15/24	62.5%	5	0	47	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	60	0	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	17/36	46/72	63.9%	53	0	123	T	300
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	97	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	48	0	40	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	12	0	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	26/52	70/104	67.3%	67	-	5	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	71	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	44	5	106	T	312
2008 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	53	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	15/33	46/66	69.7%	4	24	227	T	407
2008 Governor	8/11	5/11	13/22	59.1%	2	17	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	49/52	18/52	67/104	64.4%	24	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	33/49	16/49	49/98	50.0%	7	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	751/845	493/845	1244/1690	73.6%

Links

Back to 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Home - Predictions Home