After a loss in Virginia, it is near impossible in the numbers for Huckabee to win the nomination yet he continues to go onto what looks like March. Virginia was a test for him to see if he could rally conservatives in the state against Mc Cain he came up short as I predict he will in a vast majority of states to come.
Conservatives: Mc Cain is your nominee

Now that Mittens Romney is out the race turns out to be

Mc Cain
Vs.
Huckabee


It will be an extremely uphill battle for Mike Huckabee he will have to win most of the remaining contests to beat Mc Cains momentum/ or broker the convention which seems extremely unlikely but hey it is politics.

Updated after Super Tuesday Current candidates strength and assuming no immediate drop outs. Huckabee is a toss up in the remaining southern states if he picks up momentum from his Tuesday wins and campaigns hard, outside of the south no strength. Romney is dead dead dead as well carry only Massachusetts and western/rocky states, which are not delegate rich. Unlike the longer shot Huckabee Romney did even poorer then expected on Super Tuesday LOL and in my opinion should just drop out with Huckabee! As there is no way to offset those loses, Unless there is a plan to broker the convention by one or both of the runner ups Possible to do, but unlikely it will happen.

Feb 4 My final prediction on the eve of Super Tuesday

Mc Cain still appears to have a huge lead on most states and the all important delegate rich states. Romney has cut into his lead somewhat in California but Arnold Schwartzenegger has also been barnstorming the state with other elected Republican officials and the California republican establishment for Mc Cain. Romney must win or come within a couple of points of Mc Cain to score substantial delegates. He must also in my opinion do well in the west and keep many of the vote counts close in order to win delegates. I also believe he must win a southern state Georgia Tennessee or Oklahoma but with Huckabee on the ballot that will be hard to do as he does take votes Romney would need to be the conservative alternative to Mc Cain. Huckabee looks dead upon Super Tuesday entry!! not ahead in any state but Arkansas? He may be lucky and win Alabama but I dont think so. His outside chances would be the southern states Alabama Georgia Tennessee and his home state. He will carry Arkansas only. Mc Cain will sweep the northeast and mid atlantic Romney will carry only Massachusetts which could be closer then expected as Mc Cain has campaigned there hard for whatever strange reason if Romney does well or wins California tommorow that will be a partial reason and Romney has advertised in California. I still say Strong Advantage Mc Cain the best Romney can hope for is that Mc Cain doesnt have an outright win of delegates and that again the race stays competitive which at this point seems unlikely. Will the conservatives split with Huckabee and Romney? Will they rally behind the underdog Romney to derail Mc Cain? I say yes, but not enough Mc Cain will win moderates and a small enough number of conservatives to win big. Strong conservatives and evangelicals split between Romney and Huckabee

Mc Cain Wins the Nomination Big........



Please offer some feed back after all Im not a republican??
What are you guys gonna do Will it be an upset?

updated Feb 2

Mc Cain seems to be gaining even more despite the Romney win in the Maine Caucus that wont help him in the large states with large delegate counts which I feel Mc Cain will do well in. Huckabee appears at this point to be loosing ground in his native south so I have made Alabama Georgia Tennessee tossup Mc Cain. I had thought Huckabee could pull of wins there it appears he's going down too. Again it looks strongly like Mc Cain will sweep super tuesday.....

Well this is my first attempt for the Republican primary.

The current momentum is clearly John Mc Cains it looks strongly like he will be the republican nominee and that their race will be decided very possibly before the democrats.

I think Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will be crushed in the large non southern states by a Mc Cain tidal wive as it looks like right now Jan 30. Most of the future primaries after Feb 5 would likely go to Mc Cain as my percentages show I think most candidates will drop out at that point Feb 6 if he keeps his momentum, barring an expensive mistake or successful smear campaign which looks unlikely But hey a week is a lifetime in politics....

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