PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - gporter (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-16 Version:3

Prediction Map
gporter MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
gporter MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani8
 
McCain22
 
Romney7
 
Thompson5
 
Huckabee9
 
Other1
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani7
 
McCain13
 
Romney6
 
Thompson5
 
Huckabee4
 
Other0
 
Tossup17
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
32284
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

What a colorful map? Right.

Well, I did my best and I looked at the polling and I predicted what it would turn out to be when it comes down to the primary day.

A few that I would like to comment on...

California-With the momentum that Huckabee will have had been gaining from many of his victories during the primaries, Huckabee goes on to win a narrow victory in California. By about the margin that Kennedy defeated McCarthy in the 1968 California democratic primary.

Texas-I do not think that Giuliani will prove to make much ground there during the primary season. He is too liberal for the texans. The race there is really between Thompson and Huckabee, with Huckabee prevailing.

Pennsylvania-Giuliani leads big there right now. This is a call that I believe that I will get a lot of criticism for if I do not explain myself. Pennsylvania can trend from side to side. It does have some conservative ground in it. If the pennsylvania primary is close, then it could go to McCain.

Final Comments: On this map, I do not believe that their is a nominee. I believe that the map is about evenly split. I think that had Giuliani won the California primary in this map that he would have narrowly won the nomination. But, just by looking at the map, I do not think that anyone wins. In this scenario,it would take something like Thompson dropping out and endorsing Huckabee. If this happened, then a vast majority of the Thompson delagates would go to Huckabee, which might win him the nomination.

I look forward to reading any comments that you may have. Thank you.




Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2014 Senate 28/36 14/36 42/72 58.3% pie 1 442 308T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 13/36 41/72 56.9% pie 1 442 224T300
P 2012 President 50/56 34/56 84/112 75.0% pie 1 469 630T760
P 2010 Senate 28/37 13/37 41/74 55.4% pie 5 172 375T456
P 2008 President 47/56 27/56 74/112 66.1% pie 70 128 734T1,505
P 2008 Senate 29/33 13/33 42/66 63.6% pie 3 108 316T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 9/52 0/52 9/104 8.7% pie 1 - 235T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 28/49 4/49 32/98 32.7% pie 3 - 118T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 3 91 1T167
P 2006 Governor 19/36 6/36 25/72 34.7% pie 1 25 310312
Aggregate Predictions 269/394 127/394 396/788 50.3% pie


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