Will McCain break 80% ANYWHERE in these damn primaries? Not that I want him to; quite the opposite, in fact.

I keep overestimating McCain's percentages; the 70-range seems like a good remedy for that.

Call me crazy, but I think McCain has what it takes to pull a PA win off.

The only question for Mississippi is: will the ghost of Huckabee (and a few other ghosts) keep McCain below the 90% mark? I'm guessing they will, but I'd call it about a 50/50 shot.

*Yawn*

Those other two guys are still in the race? Seriously?

Now that I know I can take these races as they come, I think I'll be doing that.

I'm no longer so sure the Huckabee revolution is imminent. I still have him doing very well, but I'm now predicting Giuliani gets the nod, though there is still no majority of delegates. Even in this scenario, I'm probably giving Huckabee too much credit.

Signs now point to McCain doing very well in New Hampshire, and probably carrying the state. He could well pick up a lot more steam than I have him picking up here, and if he picks up Maine (which he well could), he could be in fantastic shape going into Super Tuesday. I really wish I had fresh polls from states that aren't Iowa or New Hampshire, but apparently that's too much to ask for.

More than ever, it's anybody's game on the Republican side. Should make for a very fun primary season!

If accurately predicting the Dem primaries state by state is difficult, doing it for the Republicans is downright impossible. In a party where divisions between first-and-second tier candidates don't even seem to exist anymore, anything could happen (except a Duncan Hunter victory -- he will forever be third tier). Here's how things go:

Huckabee opens very strong in Iowa, beating out the second place candidate (Romney) by a nearly 10-point margin. The Huckabee crowd is enthused and elated, and confident that Huck's charisma will win them both the primary and the general. Unfortunately for them, Huck doesn't do nearly as well in New Hampshire (he comes in fourth place), and as Romney and Huckabee duke it out, alleged front-runner Giuliani gets mighty nervous. Meanwhile, Hunter and Tancredo (and possibly even dear Ron Paul, though he might wait a while) throw in the towel.

Things move to Michigan, where all polls are now indicating a virtual three-way tie between Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney. By the skin of his teeth, Huckabee carries the state. Next come South Carolina and Nevada: Huckabee easily carries the former, and Giuliani breathes a big sigh of relief as he (quite narrowly) picks up the latter. In the coming couple weeks, Giuliani picks up steam as he carries Hawaii, Maine, and Florida; Wyoming goes to Romney.

For those of you keeping score by state, things now stand at Giuliani 4, Huckabee 3, Romney 2. Desperate for a steady leader, all eyes turn to Super Tuesday...

...Which turns out to be very inconclusive. McCain and Thompson pick up their first (and last) states, and Romney nabs Utah and North Dakota, but what Super Tuesday really establishes is that this is going to be a battle between Huckabee and Giuliani. Even during the home stretch, when one candidate should be slaughtering the other, this division continues: New England and West Coast Republicans refuse to vote for Huckabee; southern and midwestern Republicans refuse to NOT vote for Huckabee. As all other candidates throw in the towel, the pro-Giuliani states vote for Giuliani by increasing margins, while the pro-Huckabee states vote for Huckabee by increasing margins.

Neither candidate ends up with a majority of the delegates. After a lot of hemming and hawing, Huckabee becomes the nominee.

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