PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - Cuivienen (I-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-22 Version:8

Prediction Map
Cuivienen MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Cuivienen MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain1
 
Romney6
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee1
 
Other44
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain0
 
Romney0
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee0
 
Other44
 
Tossup8
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
642
piepiepie

Analysis

Calling Hawaii for anyone for 25 Jan seems a bit premature, but whatever. I'm going to go with Romney simply because he has proven the best at winning support from select groups, as will be those voting in Hawaii because of the arcane scheduling.

For Florida, I predict a Romney upset with McCain and Giuliani splitting the vote and therefore a derailment of the McCain inevitability train (though he will probably still win the nomination by dominating Super Tuesday).


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 7

South Carolina only 20% for Huckabee after relatively strong showings by Romney and Thompson.


Version: 6

After Michigan, I think it would be difficult for Romney to lose Nevada, especially given that the early caucus time will discourage less motivated supporters from coming out. South Carolina is more difficult to predict, but I think Romney will focus his energy on Nevada, which means Huckabee should be able to pull out a victory over McCain, though a McCain or a Romney victory in SC can't be entirely counted out.


Version: 5

Less certain than the Democratic side, obviously, but the polls should be giving John McCain pause. His honeymoon is over, at least in Michigan.


Version: 4

Predicting Wyoming, too, in case this gets shut off. Should be pretty comfortable for Romney, given how little attention most of his rivals have paid to Wyoming.


Version: 3

Well, I was wrong about Iowa, but I think I can be pretty confident about this prediction.


Version: 2

Predictions will be updated for each primary/caucus/convention.


Version: 1

Huckabee wins the nomination with Romney as his main challenger.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 50/56 41/56 91/112 81.3% pie 2 11 359T684
P 2020 Senate 29/35 18/35 47/70 67.1% pie 2 9 358T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 1 11 10T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 20/35 52/70 74.3% pie 5 4 170T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 10 6 122T372
P 2014 Senate 27/36 14/36 41/72 56.9% pie 1 562 322T382
P 2012 President 55/56 48/56 103/112 92.0% pie 6 1 26T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 3 1 144T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T228
P 2010 Senate 36/37 22/37 58/74 78.4% pie 5 1 86T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 6 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 28 2 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 26 1 117T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 6 40 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 7/52 4/52 11/104 10.6% pie 10 - 224T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 4/49 2/49 6/98 6.1% pie 8 - 221T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 1/3 4/6 66.7% pie 3 163 102T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 24 1 20T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 30/36 63/72 87.5% pie 30 0 10T312
Aggregate Predictions 524/656 366/656 890/1312 67.8% pie


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