Date of Prediction: 2008-01-22 Version:8
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Prediction Score (max Score = 104)
Analysis
Calling Hawaii for anyone for 25 Jan seems a bit premature, but whatever. I'm going to go with Romney simply because he has proven the best at winning support from select groups, as will be those voting in Hawaii because of the arcane scheduling.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 7 South Carolina only 20% for Huckabee after relatively strong showings by Romney and Thompson. Version: 6 After Michigan, I think it would be difficult for Romney to lose Nevada, especially given that the early caucus time will discourage less motivated supporters from coming out. South Carolina is more difficult to predict, but I think Romney will focus his energy on Nevada, which means Huckabee should be able to pull out a victory over McCain, though a McCain or a Romney victory in SC can't be entirely counted out. Version: 5 Less certain than the Democratic side, obviously, but the polls should be giving John McCain pause. His honeymoon is over, at least in Michigan. Version: 4 Predicting Wyoming, too, in case this gets shut off. Should be pretty comfortable for Romney, given how little attention most of his rivals have paid to Wyoming. Version: 3 Well, I was wrong about Iowa, but I think I can be pretty confident about this prediction. Version: 2 Predictions will be updated for each primary/caucus/convention. Version: 1 Huckabee wins the nomination with Romney as his main challenger.
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