Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-12-15 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	2
McCain	0
Romney	42
Thompson	0
Huckabee	8
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	1
McCain	0
Romney	34
Thompson	0
Huckabee	4
Other	0
Tossup	13

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
21	16	5

Analysis

I initially meant to have Huckabee win SC, but I accidentally gave it to Romney. This map fixes that.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

I'm actually not that sure about who's going to win the GOP nomination, but it always happens that once the first few dominoes fall and a clear frontrunner is established in the early primaries, all the other states fall in line. So this is a scenario in which Huckabee and Romney trade early victories, with Giuliani being pretty much out of it. Huckabee then wins most of the southern states with Feb. 5th primaries, but Romney wins nearly everything else, and runs away with the nomination.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 Dem Primary	29/52	6/52	35/104	33.7%	1	-	127	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	16/49	5/49	21/98	21.4%	2	-	155	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	45/101	11/101	56/202	27.7%

Links

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