Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-30 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	30
Romney	7
Thompson	0
Huckabee	6
Other	1

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	26
Romney	3
Thompson	0
Huckabee	4
Other	0
Tossup	11

Analysis

Well this is my first attempt for the Republican primary.

The current momentum is clearly John Mc Cains it looks strongly like he will be the republican nominee and that their race will be decided very possibly before the democrats.

I think Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee will be crushed in the large non southern states by a Mc Cain tidal wive as it looks like right now Jan 30. Most of the future primaries after Feb 5 would likely go to Mc Cain as my percentages show I think most candidates will drop out at that point Feb 6 if he keeps his momentum, barring an expensive mistake or successful smear campaign which looks unlikely But hey a week is a lifetime in politics....

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-01 @ 16:29:44
Current polls suggesting Mc Cain may sweep the south and Romney may only pick up a few western states and Massachusetts. I now believe he will be declared the nominee after Super Tuesday and the contest will be effectively over. It will be interesting to see if Romney can accept reality. Huckabee wont have the money to go on. Paul is a joke

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2008-02-01 @ 16:31:01
This map may be a best case scenario for Huckabee and Romney as Im feeling a landslide now for mc cain

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	34/35	26/35	60/70	85.7%	1	4	48	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	27/36	59/72	81.9%	1	4	88	T	272
2020 President	50/56	36/56	86/112	76.8%	9	6	529	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	4	337	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	5	51	T	293
2018 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%	5	0	334	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	25/36	58/72	80.6%	3	2	56	T	372
2016 President	48/56	29/56	77/112	68.8%	14	0	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	17/34	47/68	69.1%	7	0	213	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	6/12	15/24	62.5%	5	0	47	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	60	0	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	17/36	46/72	63.9%	53	0	123	T	300
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	97	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	48	0	40	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	12	0	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	26/52	70/104	67.3%	67	-	5	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	71	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	44	5	106	T	312
2008 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	53	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	15/33	46/66	69.7%	4	24	227	T	407
2008 Governor	8/11	5/11	13/22	59.1%	2	17	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	49/52	18/52	67/104	64.4%	24	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	33/49	16/49	49/98	50.0%	7	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	751/845	493/845	1244/1690	73.6%

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