Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-01-22 Version:8

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	1
Romney	6
Thompson	0
Huckabee	1
Other	44

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	0
Romney	0
Thompson	0
Huckabee	0
Other	44
Tossup	8

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
6	4	2

Analysis

Calling Hawaii for anyone for 25 Jan seems a bit premature, but whatever. I'm going to go with Romney simply because he has proven the best at winning support from select groups, as will be those voting in Hawaii because of the arcane scheduling.

For Florida, I predict a Romney upset with McCain and Giuliani splitting the vote and therefore a derailment of the McCain inevitability train (though he will probably still win the nomination by dominating Super Tuesday).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	41/56	91/112	81.3%	2	11	359	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	18/35	47/70	67.1%	2	9	358	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	11	10	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	20/35	52/70	74.3%	5	4	170	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	10	6	122	T	372
2014 Senate	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	1	562	322	T	382
2012 President	55/56	48/56	103/112	92.0%	6	1	26	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	16/33	48/66	72.7%	3	1	144	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2010 Senate	36/37	22/37	58/74	78.4%	5	1	86	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	6	1	91	T	312
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	28	2	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	26	1	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	6	40	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	7/52	4/52	11/104	10.6%	10	-	224	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	4/49	2/49	6/98	6.1%	8	-	221	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	1/3	4/6	66.7%	3	163	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	24	1	20	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	30/36	63/72	87.5%	30	0	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	524/656	366/656	890/1312	67.8%

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