Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-14 Version:10

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	262
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	70

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 9

I cannot believe how badly the Republicans screwed the pooch this year. Obama was dead in the water. Any idiot could have beaten him. Well, apparently not ANY idiot....

Version: 7

New Gingrich? Are you kidding me? If Gingrich is really going to be the nominee, then the Republicans lose in a landslide. It should be the other way around, of course. Barak Obama should lose this thing by a mile. How can the Republicans be this dumb? They're putting Texas and Arizona into play by nominating Newt. Don't believe me? You should! I live here! A lot of Republican voters will go third party or stay home if Newt is the nominee. Some will even cross over and vote for Obama. I'm not saying Obama would really carry Texas, but it will be a lot closer than people think it will, and yes, Obama could win. Just like the Democrats took Texas in 1968 when George Wallace shaved off a good chunk of the Republican electorate. Texas isn't the South. There are a lot (comparatively) of white Democrats and a ton of Latinos. Austin is one of the most liberal places in the United States. Obama took Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso, and Beaumont in 2008 when his opponent was a reasonable human being. He actually got 44% of the vote. If Newt is the nominee, it'll be a lot closer, and like I said, Obama could win. That would be a HUGE wake-up call for the GOP...

Version: 6

If Romney is going to be the nominee that might help the Republicans in that he's more palatable to mainstream people and independents, but the Republicans are also shooting themselves in the foot during this primary campaign by fracturing their base. The unholy alliance between rich pro-business elites and poor social conservatives is finally unraveling. Can't wait to see what ultimately happens.

Version: 5

Sometimes candidates matter...

Version: 4

If Gingrich is going to be the nominee, the Republicans are toast. Even if he's not the nominee, the Republicans are still toast which is amazing to me because Obama should be dead in the water. Any idiot should be able to beat him. Yet the slate of idiots the Republicans have compiled cannot even accomplish that modest goal.

Version: 3

Time to get annoyingly partisan!

Version: 2

Could Obama really win? Florida is the key....

Version: 1

I can't believe my prediction still has Obama winning. I honestly think he's toast.

Version History

Member Comments

By: DemfromCT (D-CT) 2012-04-14 @ 23:43:48
Any chance Texas becomes close this year?

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-15 @ 03:34:02
Texas will be close this year...but I think though under 10% difference Obama will still lose it...eight years from now it could be a tossup state... this year maybe as little as 5% but I tend to doubt it... on the other side although the red states will be closer so will the blue states as NJ for example will be single digits...so buyers remorse on both sides of the spectrum...

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-15 @ 12:06:26
It's possible. We would have had a better chance for a strong showing there had Santorum won the nomination, but Texas is still clearly trending Dem as a result of demographic trends and thus I expect improvement from 2008. But we're still probably at least 10 years from the point where it will become a true swing state.

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-19 @ 01:00:56
If it weren't for those illegal aliens, Texas would remain Republican for a good 20 years I say.

By: Nagas (D-CA) 2012-04-19 @ 03:07:09
Illegal aliens can't vote. Good try though. 1/10

By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2012-06-14 @ 18:23:40
Texas will be closer than most people think. Obama only lost by 11 points in 2008 and I expect he'll only lose by single digits this year. He probably has no real chance of winning. But yes, the state is changing demographically and could be a true toss-up in 2016, definitely by 2020.

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-06-14 @ 23:30:53
Found you from your 538.com blog post. Well, seems we only disagree on NC, which is completely unpredictable at this point due to the Charlotte convention. It could have locally positive or negative effects. Who can say? Let's examine some evidence. The Dem convention in Denver last time certainly helped. Obama won the state by about 9% when statistics say he should have done so by closer to 6-7%. So it was worth maybe a 2-3 pt added bump. Next, there's the GOP convention in the Twin Cities. They wound up losing the state by a little over 10 pts, but the math now indicates they are going to lose MN by 14 or so this time. But part of that is due to current events such as the complete disintegration of the state GOP there. But, to put it in a Boolean operator, the fact is that Dayton and the DFL won there in 2010 not the GOP. What that means is that the Dems should probably have cleaned up in MN in 2008 by about 12+ pts and only squeaked out a ten-pointer. So the convention bounce looks like it was again a 2-3 pt bump. Also, CO and MN are roughly the same size. Population matters for home state advantage as well as these other local effects like conventions. Luckily, few local effects matter this year - Mitt has no home state advantage (maybe a mild one in MI and NH, but not anywhere near enough to swing these states) and Obama's home field gives him states he already was gonna have anyway just with the D after his name. So the conventions are the only things to worry about. FL is a big state, so the convention bump's effects will be diluted over a population of 8 million votes. NC is still bigger than MN and CO by a good bit. So probably smaller bumps coming from these things locally. Nationally the same, because it all looks the same on tv. The activists who come ut of these places to turn out the vote are the issue. Anyway, sorry to be long-winded, but that's what we're both having trouble forecasting is the 2 states which will have the most unpredictable local effects between now and Nov 6. -Jeff

By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2012-06-16 @ 10:09:27
I also think that Florida is a genuine toss-up. I have it for Obama right now but that could easily change with the polling.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-06-16 @ 10:14:53
I think you meant a population of over 18 million and I would tend to agree with Florida. I spend a lot of time there as my family is in the Sarasota area. Mixed feeling for both candidates and people are genuinely concerned about their and the nation's future but have nowhere to turn for strong solutions. So it will be a tossup and within 2-3 points either way like in 2000. I feel that the debates will move people this time.

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-06-16 @ 11:41:20
Yes, 18mil people but I was talking about 8mil _votes_. Of course lots of those are children and FL is a non-voting state for ex-cons like several others. Still, a lot more Floridians could be voting that aren't already. It's the only way they'd elect a Gov like Scott. My suspicion is that the 10 states that elected those far right GOP Govs in 2010 are slowly backing away from that decision. I'd say PA, OH, FL, NJ, VA, MI, WI, ME, NV and IA will vote slightly more towards Obama than they would have without having gone so far to the GOP in the mid-terms. Even despite WI not recalling Walker, I'm still seeing him as rather unpopular in the middle. So it's a series of wave elections that take the country back and forth yo-yoing from one side to the other - a political see-saw. I'd rather just stay in the middle, but there's enough interested money on both sides to keep this back-and-forth going for the foreseeable future. -Jeff

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	86	15	215	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	21/35	52/70	74.3%	6	10	194	T	423
2018 Senate	31/35	21/35	52/70	74.3%	21	8	170	T	483
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	23	1	T	149
2016 President	49/56	29/56	78/112	69.6%	25	7	325	T	678
2014 Senate	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	7	8	231	T	382
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	13	14	146	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	16/33	47/66	71.2%	3	44	164	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	17	10	63	T	456
2008 President	52/56	34/56	86/112	76.8%	17	7	324	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	2	102	257	T	407
Aggregate Predictions	399/435	266/435	665/870	76.4%