Date of Prediction: 2012-05-04 Version:25
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 45 Slight change in states Iowa to Obama BUT more movement toward ROmney in %'s Romney can win this with a stellar debate performance AND this will go down as where debates changed perceptions of candidates. Version: 44 Just a few % changes in my prediction for November. This could be my final map although i still say some states can flow back to Obama. Version: 43 This is my 1916 like map for a ROmney run for President, it is his high water mark in my mind, I expect a few states like Iowa, COlorado and Virginia to just as easily break for Obama the same day....but if ROmney makes a run this is what it could look like...then they will write about the mistakes he made in his campaign...still a lot of time left. Version: 42 I have switched by calling of Wisconsin and Virginia benefiting Obama by a few votes....I still think it will be a close election but more nad more I feel that Virginia and Ohio will stay with Obama while FLorida, COlorado, Iowa and Wisconsin might join Indiana and NC for ROmney... Version: 41 My final September map thinking of post debates...I feel the economy will still hurt Obama and although I have him narrowly winning-about like Wilson did in 1916, I still feel this is a race Romney can win and he has marshalled some amazing suppot financially to do it. Version: 40 I am back to my probable Obama map for the Fall - this might change if some movement towards ROmney Ryan is sustained through the convention and debates overcoming Obama's turn at his convention. But in the end it will be a base election with independents casting fewer ballots as most of us have made up our minds it seems...a big debate gaffe by either side could turn it into a close race for ROmeny victory or a rout for Obama victory-this is my optimistic map for Obama. Version: 39 New prediction based on Ryan and Romney running a smart campaign and Obama and Biden running a well oiled campaign but traditional voting blocs doing their normal thing with seniors a little more democratic then normal. Version: 38 Basically a close election with Romney-Ryan hammering home on economics and making some inroads in the public's mind. But in the end the trump card is Ohio which the Democrats retain by a narrow margin. There the auto bailout carries the day. Version: 37 I switched Iowa back to Obama and increased lieklihood of Michigan going emocratic. Still CO and VA are equally volitile in my mind as Iowa, NH and Ohio... Version: 36 I have moved Michigan back to Obama with recent polls having him ahead by six which changes my basic moving everyone with 2% for Obama or less into Romney totals. Version: 35 I gave each state that was 1% Obama or less to Romney as I believe Romney will get a majority of undecideds. So Michigan, Virginia, FLorida and Iowa are one point Obama leads and thus for ROmney based on dividing undecideds. Version: 34 Fluid political scene with ROmney capturing most of the indecideds. Weak economy is a large issue and some of these states are really tossups. Version: 33 A possible scenario if ROmney does well but just not quite enough- a turnaround from 2000. I do feel there is softness in the midest less so in Ohio though but certainly in Michigan, Iowa and less so in Wisconsin. I feel it might return to Obama if Thompson is not nominated... Version: 32 This is my July map as I will take a break for a few weeks and let the summer heat bake the candidates. Poor economic news for Obama will dim his chances even further but better than average economy in Virginia and Ohio will help, recent health care vote cuts both ways.. Version: 31 A change in my feeling about Florida and Virginia. There seems to be growing acceptance in some circles in FLorida that Obama has a decent chance there but the opposite is said to be true in Virginia where some fall off in support in Northern Virginia is being noticed. Version: 30 Some movement in polls both ways to show a shifting ground for both men in this race. I feel that the state of Florida is in flux as their economy is starting to improve and Romney had to quiet the governor on his economic message. Version: 29 OK this is my current map and what I think the fall election could look like based on some current polls and averaging some others. Forexample, I do not see Obama behind in Michigan despite a recent poll so I averaged. Version: 28 I had not chosen to get to 269 or not but here I am. Collapse in Midwest of Obama campaign due to poor economy and counter cyclical nature of things. This is ROmney perfect election run in my mind. Version: 27 Changing my %'s a bit plus a few moves in the election as Imight see it after a campaign. I can still see Virginia going for ROmney but at present this is what I have...if VA is for ROmney then it is a 1916 election as I think it is going to be and there will be recounts. Like Europe we would enter the chaos zone. Version: 26 Well I return to my 2012 map and not with surprising results I have Obama winning by narrower margins taking the comments he has made and some of the analysis of the gay marrage issue as well as the economic issue I have adjusted some per centages in my mind. Version: 25 Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people. Version: 24 I switched NH back to Obama for now and moved Iowa back to Romney. I feel Iowa is usually counter cyclical and will vote against incumbents easily...very close though. Version: 23 OK let us call this the post ROmney nomination bounce. There was some small blips up but it seems that the election will be for two things turnout-both brands not extremely popular. And for the indies as both parties are around 90% for their respective candidate. Version: 22 OK here is my post convention bounce for Romney map...this one I might keep for a month or so... Version: 21 Well, I could not stand to be the average anymore so I updated with some current polls influencing my choices. I moved Arizona to more of a toss up GOP tilt and moved Florida into Obama's column, reduced NH margin for Obama. Do I think it will end this way-no way. Version: 20 This is my last map until I get settled in Japan. I see new polls have Obama ahead in Ohio, NH and some other states but behind in Florida...I think the economy has helped Obama in Ohio with the resurgence of GM helping drop Ohio's unempoloyment less than national average. In NH the GOP primary season has helped reshape Indiependent's view of ROmney in a more negative light and Obama's ratings are back around 50% in NH. Version: 19 Romney runs near perfect campaign and Obama loses to him...this is what it would look like in my mind-close as we all thought but ROmney pulls out electoral victory. Version: 18 I have shifted several states, Penn back to DEMS added Arizona to DEMS and subtracted Ohio.... Version: 17 This is my ROmney map against Obama with soem changes in the normal state of things...Obama eeeks out narrow win in Virginia but equally loses Pennsylvania by narrow loss. Of course this is just my post New hampshire glow for ROmney-long campaign to follow.. Version: 16 State of the match against GIngrich or ROmney in my mind...it is a long way to november and much will happen and the likelihood of a third party looms strong in my mind...an effective one possibly but certainly one which will gain % points.... Version: 15 With the shifting winds of politics I think ROmney still has the best chance for the nomination but the anti ROmney people are still there as evidenced by the Haley endorsement reaction. Version: 14 Gingrich versus Obama - Gingrich runs a decent campaign of ideas but makes a few flubs here and there. Economy improves slightly giving Obama a break. Version: 13 I just had the time and could not resist to make an Obama/Romney/Bloomberg map taking some of Perot's %'s and adding in demographics and some gut feeling-by no means an accurate guess. Version: 12 Romney versus Obama Version: 11 Romney versus Obama Version: 10 Obama versus GOP field at present Romney leading...the GOP Dukakis according to George Will... Version: 9 Well, this is my current ROmney/Obama map based on some polls and feeling I have about some states. It would be close in some states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and NC....and closer than you would expect in some blue states. Version: 8 Romney versus Obama update Version: 7 I am back to a Romney-Obama fight with the Democratic incumbent winning like Wilson did in 1916-barely.. Version: 6 Well, I sat down with some statistics and used my reasoning to divide using current polls what I think the election would be like for Perry versus Obama.... I lowered turnout a bit which cost Obama a point or two, I figured higher defection among indpendents to GOP which cost Obama a point or two, then I took the minority populations and multiplied a little more to add %'s of ethnic diversity and turnout..in my opinion. Of course the real stats from Bonn will come in the Fall...so this is just an excersize of what might happen.. Version: 5 Here is how I think the current map of Perry versus Obama the key being Perry's SOuthwest/Southeast and Rust belt ability to gerner votes or not. Version: 4 There is a talk in circles about Clinton running against Obama 1 in 4 of Democrats want this to happen. Bernie Sauders said someone should run against Obama as he has drifted to far to the right. Hilary said she is never running for political office again (maybe for Supreme COurt?) Version: 3 This is my new map showing a Perry/Obama race. I believe if things get even dicier Obama may reach into his hat and pull a Clinton out for VP. Although it looks about even now in some polls, I feel that it is a long way to go.... Version: 2 In my second more nuanced map I shifted Colorado and reduced percentages for Obama. However, I feel Romney has significant baggage to gain the nomination and carries some of that into the election. Does it match Obama's baggage yes and no. The Mormon religion will be a wild card which I predict lessens the GOP percentage in certain southern areas. I feel this is why North Carolina will fall to Obama plus the fact that the state is healthier economically than most of the USA. Version: 1 Well, it has been a great year for me, I managed a nice trip to Japan last fall for some work for a month. SInce I lived there for eight years it was nice to be there before the tsunami and its aftermath. We in this country have a lot to be thankful for...
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