Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	275
Rep	263
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	265
Rep	170
Ind	0
Tos	103

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-1	-84	23	2	275	-84
Rep	+6	+1	+84	0	0	0	22	2	179	+84
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Just a few % changes in my prediction for November. This could be my final map although i still say some states can flow back to Obama.

In the end I feel the house will be + a handle of Democrats and the senate will stay in Democratic hands almost where it is but the seats will change hands and some red states will see Democrats and some blue states may see GOP like COnnecticut. I feel in the end an unwritten note is the number of women who will be winning seats n the US senate.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 45

Slight change in states Iowa to Obama BUT more movement toward ROmney in %'s Romney can win this with a stellar debate performance AND this will go down as where debates changed perceptions of candidates.

Version: 44

Just a few % changes in my prediction for November. This could be my final map although i still say some states can flow back to Obama.

In the end I feel the house will be + a handle of Democrats and the senate will stay in Democratic hands almost where it is but the seats will change hands and some red states will see Democrats and some blue states may see GOP like COnnecticut. I feel in the end an unwritten note is the number of women who will be winning seats n the US senate.

Version: 43

This is my 1916 like map for a ROmney run for President, it is his high water mark in my mind, I expect a few states like Iowa, COlorado and Virginia to just as easily break for Obama the same day....but if ROmney makes a run this is what it could look like...then they will write about the mistakes he made in his campaign...still a lot of time left.

Version: 42

I have switched by calling of Wisconsin and Virginia benefiting Obama by a few votes....I still think it will be a close election but more nad more I feel that Virginia and Ohio will stay with Obama while FLorida, COlorado, Iowa and Wisconsin might join Indiana and NC for ROmney...

It remains to be seen how much damage his 47% video released now even though it was last May...

certainly the campaigns are being run at different levels of mastery. Obama at top of game while ship of state flounders while ROmney in a row boat with no oars...

Version: 41

My final September map thinking of post debates...I feel the economy will still hurt Obama and although I have him narrowly winning-about like Wilson did in 1916, I still feel this is a race Romney can win and he has marshalled some amazing suppot financially to do it.

Version: 40

I am back to my probable Obama map for the Fall - this might change if some movement towards ROmney Ryan is sustained through the convention and debates overcoming Obama's turn at his convention. But in the end it will be a base election with independents casting fewer ballots as most of us have made up our minds it seems...a big debate gaffe by either side could turn it into a close race for ROmeny victory or a rout for Obama victory-this is my optimistic map for Obama.

Version: 39

New prediction based on Ryan and Romney running a smart campaign and Obama and Biden running a well oiled campaign but traditional voting blocs doing their normal thing with seniors a little more democratic then normal.

Version: 38

Basically a close election with Romney-Ryan hammering home on economics and making some inroads in the public's mind. But in the end the trump card is Ohio which the Democrats retain by a narrow margin. There the auto bailout carries the day.

Version: 37

I switched Iowa back to Obama and increased lieklihood of Michigan going emocratic. Still CO and VA are equally volitile in my mind as Iowa, NH and Ohio...

Version: 36

I have moved Michigan back to Obama with recent polls having him ahead by six which changes my basic moving everyone with 2% for Obama or less into Romney totals.

Version: 35

I gave each state that was 1% Obama or less to Romney as I believe Romney will get a majority of undecideds. So Michigan, Virginia, FLorida and Iowa are one point Obama leads and thus for ROmney based on dividing undecideds.

Version: 34

Fluid political scene with ROmney capturing most of the indecideds. Weak economy is a large issue and some of these states are really tossups.

Version: 33

A possible scenario if ROmney does well but just not quite enough- a turnaround from 2000. I do feel there is softness in the midest less so in Ohio though but certainly in Michigan, Iowa and less so in Wisconsin. I feel it might return to Obama if Thompson is not nominated...

The senate too is becoming more possibly a GOP round even with a possible turnover in Massachusetts...COnnecticut and FLorida have weakened.

Version: 32

This is my July map as I will take a break for a few weeks and let the summer heat bake the candidates. Poor economic news for Obama will dim his chances even further but better than average economy in Virginia and Ohio will help, recent health care vote cuts both ways..

Version: 31

A change in my feeling about Florida and Virginia. There seems to be growing acceptance in some circles in FLorida that Obama has a decent chance there but the opposite is said to be true in Virginia where some fall off in support in Northern Virginia is being noticed.

By all means this is early yet but the trend seems possible to loss Ohio and Virginia yet retain Florida....possible..

Version: 30

Some movement in polls both ways to show a shifting ground for both men in this race. I feel that the state of Florida is in flux as their economy is starting to improve and Romney had to quiet the governor on his economic message.

Midwest is where Romney will choose his V{ and spend most of his time. His campaign is beginning to withdraw emphasis on some Western states.

Obama still has a large case to make and his message is garbled at best. Both bases are solidifying around their nominees and enthusiasm seems to be about the same nationwide but what is it in specific states is the key.

Labor will not advertise but use its money to organize on the ground and produce get out the vote messages in person to person messaging.

Version: 29

OK this is my current map and what I think the fall election could look like based on some current polls and averaging some others. Forexample, I do not see Obama behind in Michigan despite a recent poll so I averaged.

But no doubt about it the situation is very fluid...

Version: 28

I had not chosen to get to 269 or not but here I am. Collapse in Midwest of Obama campaign due to poor economy and counter cyclical nature of things. This is ROmney perfect election run in my mind.

Version: 27

Changing my %'s a bit plus a few moves in the election as Imight see it after a campaign. I can still see Virginia going for ROmney but at present this is what I have...if VA is for ROmney then it is a 1916 election as I think it is going to be and there will be recounts. Like Europe we would enter the chaos zone.

Version: 26

Well I return to my 2012 map and not with surprising results I have Obama winning by narrower margins taking the comments he has made and some of the analysis of the gay marrage issue as well as the economic issue I have adjusted some per centages in my mind.

But I think much will still happen and the electoral vote and popular vote will be closer than last time.

Version: 25

Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people.

I have Hilary making inroads with some older establishment types while losing some traditional older states which are less for the Clintons...the big cahuna would be a narrow victory for her in FLorida...

Well, it could happen in some alternative universe!

Version: 24

I switched NH back to Obama for now and moved Iowa back to Romney. I feel Iowa is usually counter cyclical and will vote against incumbents easily...very close though.

Version: 23

OK let us call this the post ROmney nomination bounce. There was some small blips up but it seems that the election will be for two things turnout-both brands not extremely popular. And for the indies as both parties are around 90% for their respective candidate.

Obama is weak in some blue states like Pennsyl, while do better in others like Ohio while barely losing in NH and NC while weakly ahead in FLorida and Virginia...the debates could prove a powerful plus for ROmney-there will be only three for sure..

Version: 22

OK here is my post convention bounce for Romney map...this one I might keep for a month or so...

It is based on margin of error plus undecideds....do I think it will end up this way - no way.

I still think as do most GOP operatives that Oabama will win but it remains to be seen where and how that will happen...

Version: 21

Well, I could not stand to be the average anymore so I updated with some current polls influencing my choices. I moved Arizona to more of a toss up GOP tilt and moved Florida into Obama's column, reduced NH margin for Obama. Do I think it will end this way-no way.

Version: 20

This is my last map until I get settled in Japan. I see new polls have Obama ahead in Ohio, NH and some other states but behind in Florida...I think the economy has helped Obama in Ohio with the resurgence of GM helping drop Ohio's unempoloyment less than national average. In NH the GOP primary season has helped reshape Indiependent's view of ROmney in a more negative light and Obama's ratings are back around 50% in NH.

SO I still see a close race in some of these states and ROmney winning the battle in FLorida, NC, Indiana and the lone NE elector at this time - an increase of 56 votes to McCain's total.

Version: 19

Romney runs near perfect campaign and Obama loses to him...this is what it would look like in my mind-close as we all thought but ROmney pulls out electoral victory.

Version: 18

I have shifted several states, Penn back to DEMS added Arizona to DEMS and subtracted Ohio....

There is not much to say from a statistical choice but I have a gut feeling choice in this map and await some great stats from Bonn when he has a chance to revive his page with actual data later in this election cycle.

I feel the one million signature in WI for the governor recall bodes well for November in the upper midwest...

Version: 17

This is my ROmney map against Obama with soem changes in the normal state of things...Obama eeeks out narrow win in Virginia but equally loses Pennsylvania by narrow loss. Of course this is just my post New hampshire glow for ROmney-long campaign to follow..

Version: 16

State of the match against GIngrich or ROmney in my mind...it is a long way to november and much will happen and the likelihood of a third party looms strong in my mind...an effective one possibly but certainly one which will gain % points....

Version: 15

With the shifting winds of politics I think ROmney still has the best chance for the nomination but the anti ROmney people are still there as evidenced by the Haley endorsement reaction.

Version: 14

Gingrich versus Obama - Gingrich runs a decent campaign of ideas but makes a few flubs here and there. Economy improves slightly giving Obama a break.

Version: 13

I just had the time and could not resist to make an Obama/Romney/Bloomberg map taking some of Perot's %'s and adding in demographics and some gut feeling-by no means an accurate guess.

Version: 12

Romney versus Obama

economy still sour, no reduction in spending and Euro collapses making ROmney look good for his economic expertise.

Best case scenario for GOP in my mind...

Version: 11

Romney versus Obama

A close race in some larger states. Generally Obama's margin falls except in a few states where local issues play like Arizona.

Version: 10

Obama versus GOP field at present Romney leading...the GOP Dukakis according to George Will...

Florida is an easy win with Hilary and do not think for a moment that can not happen should Obama feel the need...

Version: 9

Well, this is my current ROmney/Obama map based on some polls and feeling I have about some states. It would be close in some states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and NC....and closer than you would expect in some blue states.

Version: 8

Romney versus Obama update

It seems that ROmney has some steam now and might get the nomination...but the conservative wing of the GOP is not happily endorsing him...a small fallout for Mormonisn in deep south but otherswise no effect in my mind.

ROmney will do well in New England and has a shot a COnnecticut too, while having shots at other DEM states...North Carolina may well be closer than close...

Version: 7

I am back to a Romney-Obama fight with the Democratic incumbent winning like Wilson did in 1916-barely..

This is last map for me until Thanksgiving-thanks to all for great discourse..

Version: 6

Well, I sat down with some statistics and used my reasoning to divide using current polls what I think the election would be like for Perry versus Obama.... I lowered turnout a bit which cost Obama a point or two, I figured higher defection among indpendents to GOP which cost Obama a point or two, then I took the minority populations and multiplied a little more to add %'s of ethnic diversity and turnout..in my opinion. Of course the real stats from Bonn will come in the Fall...so this is just an excersize of what might happen..

Version: 5

Here is how I think the current map of Perry versus Obama the key being Perry's SOuthwest/Southeast and Rust belt ability to gerner votes or not.

This is a fluid race and with the Fall might come some interesting stats from Bonn. Latest California poll shows a wide lead over Perry for Obama and since that is 10% of the country it must be balanced by %'s in the south going the other way...no surprise there...

key states
Southwest NMexico, Nevada and COlorado
Southeast North Carolina, Virginia
Rust belt Ohio, Pennsyl and Michigan

assumption Indiana returns to GOP fold-an assumption for sure no stats yet...

Iowa, WIsconsin are close too...

Version: 4

There is a talk in circles about Clinton running against Obama 1 in 4 of Democrats want this to happen. Bernie Sauders said someone should run against Obama as he has drifted to far to the right. Hilary said she is never running for political office again (maybe for Supreme COurt?)

Anyway there is a growing restlessness among the Dems...

In a primary between the two I would vote for Hilary this time...and I would not be alone.

But I will vote for any Dem instead of Perry...this is a Hilary versus Rick matchup...

Version: 3

This is my new map showing a Perry/Obama race. I believe if things get even dicier Obama may reach into his hat and pull a Clinton out for VP. Although it looks about even now in some polls, I feel that it is a long way to go....

Version: 2

In my second more nuanced map I shifted Colorado and reduced percentages for Obama. However, I feel Romney has significant baggage to gain the nomination and carries some of that into the election. Does it match Obama's baggage yes and no. The Mormon religion will be a wild card which I predict lessens the GOP percentage in certain southern areas. I feel this is why North Carolina will fall to Obama plus the fact that the state is healthier economically than most of the USA.

Here in MN the stupidity of the power struggle over the state budget has infuriated independents who feel that cuts should be made but that some things should be retained like quality education, infrtstructure and investment in resources. The GOP alienated the Independent candidate for governor who endorsed Dayton's plan. With the recall in Wisconsin many Minnesotans are not happy with the GOP. The center has shifted back to the DFL. Obama wins the state by at least 6 points against Romney if he gets the nod or more.

Version: 1

Well, it has been a great year for me, I managed a nice trip to Japan last fall for some work for a month. SInce I lived there for eight years it was nice to be there before the tsunami and its aftermath. We in this country have a lot to be thankful for...

I do think Obama will be reelected despite the economy but the turnout will be down for several reasons and the GOP will fail to pick some of thier stronger candidates like the governor of Indiana.

Version History

46: 2012-11-04 @ 10:16:51 45: 2012-10-19 @ 06:46:27 44: 2012-10-06 @ 14:16:56 43: 2012-09-29 @ 10:52:55 42: 2012-09-18 @ 16:09:05 41: 2012-09-08 @ 18:37:55 40: 2012-08-20 @ 06:27:53 39: 2012-08-13 @ 09:41:49 38: 2012-08-11 @ 06:12:50 37: 2012-07-28 @ 14:58:28 36: 2012-07-24 @ 14:53:18 35: 2012-07-22 @ 21:11:49 34: 2012-07-19 @ 17:40:07 33: 2012-07-15 @ 15:42:28 32: 2012-07-03 @ 11:55:39 31: 2012-06-26 @ 16:52:22 30: 2012-06-21 @ 10:07:57 29: 2012-06-08 @ 10:38:29 28: 2012-06-02 @ 05:50:46 27: 2012-05-12 @ 05:59:52 26: 2012-05-09 @ 21:35:44 25: 2012-05-04 @ 03:04:07 24: 2012-04-27 @ 16:49:50 23: 2012-04-20 @ 16:39:54 22: 2012-04-11 @ 06:02:54 21: 2012-03-15 @ 22:40:42 20: 2012-02-04 @ 11:11:51 19: 2012-02-01 @ 05:39:28 18: 2012-01-18 @ 06:29:30 17: 2012-01-11 @ 06:45:04 16: 2011-12-26 @ 17:35:08 15: 2011-12-18 @ 07:11:11 14: 2011-11-30 @ 10:07:38 13: 2011-11-26 @ 16:50:07 12: 2011-11-22 @ 05:31:38 11: 2011-11-10 @ 06:47:21 10: 2011-11-02 @ 12:29:13 9: 2011-10-20 @ 06:15:45 8: 2011-10-12 @ 13:36:56 7: 2011-09-30 @ 18:53:37 6: 2011-09-10 @ 06:43:05 5: 2011-09-05 @ 10:50:21 4: 2011-08-31 @ 13:47:02 3: 2011-08-23 @ 06:32:34 2: 2011-08-06 @ 18:50:51 1: 2011-08-04 @ 11:09:14 View Version

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-06 @ 14:17:31
A continuation of my 1916 theme and close race....

---

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 14:54:36
Looking at the US Senate- How would you like if the Freshman Class consists of AZ-Flake-R CT-McMahon-R??? HI-Hirino-D IN-Mourdock-R. ME-King-I MA-Warren-D MO-Akin-R???? MT-Rehberg-R NE-Fischer-R NV-Berkley-D???? NM-Heinrich-D ND-Berg-R TX-Cruz-R VA-Kaine-D WI-Baldwin-D

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-06 @ 16:35:10
I really see the GOP winning CT a possibility, but I see Donnelly in Indiana and Akin losing Missouri...so that would lessen Freshmen by one and change one, also I do not see Nevada pulling through as I feel she is lackluster but if there is one state the Dems can turn out a machine it is Nevada....might be a surprise in Arizona too... Last Edit: 2012-10-07 @ 12:08:46

---

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 18:14:35
We are going to see 13 Freshman US Senators. Brown(R-MA) and Tester(D-MT) are going to narrowly lose re-election. Warren(D-MA) and Rehberg(R-MT) Looking at the open seat races. AZ(Flake-R) CT(McMahon-R) HI(Hirino-D) IN(Donnelly-D) ME(King-I) NE(Fischer-R) NM(Heinrich-D) ND(Berg-R) TX(Cruz-R) VA(Kaine-D) WI(Baldwin-D)

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-07 @ 12:10:34
Another facet which is seldom talked about is the increase in female senators this time around...we lose two as I remember (ME and TX) but are picking up Hawaii, Massachusetts, COnnecticut, Nebraska, and Wisconsin for a net gain of two...or more...

---

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 14:12:42
A Net Gain of 4 Female US Senators-if we include Berkley(NV) and McMahon(CT) winning their US Senate Race- A Net Gain of 1 Female US Senators-if McCaskill(MO)surprisingly loses re-election. Berkley(NV) and McMahon(CT)lose their US Senate Races. Fischer(NE) and Hirono(HI) are strongly favored to win. Warren(MA) and Baldwin(WI) are expected to win by a wider than expected margin.

---

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-10-12 @ 10:49:01
Berkley is now losing 47-39. Heller is winning the white, hispanic and asian vote. The poll was taken over the course of the last week and had 1,222 respondents, which is a rather large sample for a small state. She's finished. http://www.8newsnow.com/story/19787688/8-news-nowlvrj-poll-heller-widens-lead-over-berkley-embargo-until-4-am-thursday

---

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-10-12 @ 11:08:55
Also the poll average for Ohio over the last week is all the way down to only Obama +2, you might want to change Ohio to tossup.

---

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-12 @ 11:58:43
I remember after the all-night election of 1976 -- which didn't end until Mississippi put Carter over the top after nearly everyone was asleep -- I got prepared in 1980 to pull an "all-nighter" watching the returns. Then it was over by 8 p.m. (Central Time). Given that Virginia and NH will be among the first states to report ... well, if either candidate wins both of them, then it's over. This is no 1916. 2000 was. Last Edit: 2012-10-12 @ 12:05:30

---

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-12 @ 12:10:43
I just checked the poll closing times for states in the Eastern Time zone: Nearly all the Northern states will close at 8 p.m. while nearly all the Southern states close at 7 p.m. Stated divided into the Eastern and Central time zones are MI, IN, KY, TN, and FL. Of those, only FL is likely to matter.

---

By: Snigglie (R-AL) 2012-10-12 @ 14:16:55
Keep in mind that a portion of Florida is in Central Time, meaning that it'll take an extra hour to get those results. If I remember correctly, most of the networks called Florida for Gore in 2000 a little after the polls closed in most of the state, which was around 7:30 Eastern time. I believe it was after midnight Eastern time that they called it for Bush, and close to 2am when they decided it was too close to call. So, even Eastern states can take a while before they're called if they're close.

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-13 @ 14:07:23
Whyte rain I understand what you say about the year 2000 being close BUT the key for 1916 and 2012 is an incumbent president winning a close election, 2000 does not fit that category and that is what i am using to compare....my map seems pretty accurate for today in my mind.

---

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2012-10-13 @ 20:41:11
I think AZ is probably out of reach for Obama even in a best case scenario. It's yet another case of "fool's gold" for the Dems. At least "lean" if not "solid" Romney. MO is probably out of reach too, at least so far... Last Edit: 2012-10-13 @ 20:42:29

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-14 @ 01:34:01
However, a new poll has Obama ahead in Arizona, this may be a fluke or may be representative of a small rebound most notably in hispanic support...

---

By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-14 @ 11:48:01
Maybe but that seems unlikely given the other polls favorability to Romney since the debate. Additionally if it were a small rebound in hispanic support I doubt we'd see Romney taking the lead in the polls in Colorado or making Nevada closer. I personally think that poll on Arizona is an outlier simply because it doesn't fit with the rest of the data. But we'll have to wait for more information before we can fully make that assumption. I do tend to agree with blue though I think that Arizona and Missouri are out of reach for Democrats just as Michigan and Pennsylvania are for Republicans. They look good to the other side but are really just fool's gold.

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-14 @ 14:17:09
Do not disagree but Arizona is one state which can flip as it did for Clinton, just like iowa did for Bush, lots of campaigning in last few weeks and i look for another bounce for Obama and ROmney moving back and forth...

---

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-15 @ 06:26:43
dnul, if you want to find an election like this one, but one in which the incumbent wins a (fairly) close race -- which I am on long record of doubting will happen -- then try 1900. 1916 and 2000 were twins because (1) they were the two closest elections in the 20th century and (2) they were mirror images, with nearly all the Wilson states going for Bush and nearly all the Hughes states going for Gore. [modify:] Don't get hung up on the "incumbent president" thing. Gore was, after all, the incumbent VICE-president and was essentially, like GHW Bush in '88, HHH in '68, and Nixon in '60 running for his party's "third term". Btw, I've been saying for awhile that the Democrats will soon (within 2-3 years) adopt the "Ryan Budget", though not until it's out-of-date, and here's some evidence that they're already heading that way -- an op-ed in the NYT by a former top Obama Treasury official: THE REAL RADICAL IS ROMNEY, NOT RYAN President Obama should use Tuesday night’s debate to press Mr. Romney to defend — or even just explain — these proposed cuts, which would be far more draconian than those advanced by his running mate, Paul D. Ryan. Mr. Ryan is widely viewed as the real fiscal hawk, but in key areas, his views on spending levels are actually closer to Mr. Obama’s than to Mr. Romney’s. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/opinion/the-radical-is-romney-not-ryan.html#h[] Last Edit: 2012-10-15 @ 06:36:02

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-15 @ 06:55:22
Ok I see where you are coming from as far as states....I still like the 1916 election because it had some third party input like socialists....anyway enough said the polls are close and this is still to be won or lost. Last Edit: 2012-10-15 @ 10:57:03

---

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-16 @ 10:30:21
Next map might put Iowa back to Obama but I will await the debates... Last Edit: 2012-10-16 @ 14:45:07

---