PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - pmm326 (D-OH) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:8

Prediction Map
pmm326 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
pmm326 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem269
 
Rep269
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos66
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-7-1-90222269-90
Rep+7+1+90000222179+90
Ind0000000000


Analysis

I'm going for it and predicting a 269-269 tie. I see my state of Ohio flipping to Romney, among other changes from Democratic to Republican in 2012.

Romney has 30 states, Obama 20 plus DC. Election thrown to Congress; House picks Romney as President, Senate stays in Democratic hands, Biden selected as VP.

A Romney-Biden administration? This would be interesting...


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 8

I'm going for it and predicting a 269-269 tie. I see my state of Ohio flipping to Romney, among other changes from Democratic to Republican in 2012.

Romney has 30 states, Obama 20 plus DC. Election thrown to Congress; House picks Romney as President, Senate stays in Democratic hands, Biden selected as VP.

A Romney-Biden administration? This would be interesting...


Version: 4

With Santorum having a good possibility of winning the GOP nomination, I put New Hampshire and Virginia into the Democratic column, and ajusted some perentages as well. As ever, this is all subject to how the GOP race plays out, as well as post-convention events.


Version: 3

Only minor tweaks on this one, along with switching New Hampshire to the GOP tally. Everything, however, is still subject to change depending on how the GOP race and domestic events play out.


Version: 2

About the same as Prediciton #1, except for a few differences in confidence and percentages.


Version: 1

I see 2012 being close in the popular vote, but a little less so in the EV count. Ohio, once again, will play a role in who prevails, with New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania among the swing states. As Ohio goes, so does the election, as it has for the last 12 elections from 1964-2008, the longest active streak in the U.S. We'll make it a lucky 13 again in 2012 - this predicition is how I see it at this point, but things can change in a second, so anything's possible.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 9 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 1 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 2 1 131T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 28/52 10/52 38/104 36.5% pie 6 - 114T231
Aggregate Predictions 125/152 74/152 199/304 65.5% pie


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