Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-13 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	253
Rep	285
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	247
Rep	235
Ind	0
Tos	56

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-8	-1	-106	21	2	253	-106
Rep	+8	+1	+106	0	0	0	22	2	179	+106
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Assuming current RCP averages for well polled states, 538 adjusted averages for sparsely polled states&CDs, the last <=5% among those polled as undecided break 2:1 for Romney, and all others polled as undecided - if >5% - split evenly.

Lean in confidence map means >=2% lead in poll average. Strong means >=5% lead.

NPV result: R+3 (51-48)

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

2 week undecideds break 2:1 for the challenger

Version: 3

Version: 2

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	5	7	561	T	760
2008 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	33	0	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	28/33	13/33	41/66	62.1%	2	205	334	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	2	2	65	T	465
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	33	1	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	216/234	154/234	370/468	79.1%