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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:111

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem277
 
Rep261
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem227
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos105
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-82232277-82
Rep+6+1+82000222179+82
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95473855
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election
Obama-D has an electoral vote base of 191ev (including ME-4,CT-7,NJ-14,WA-12,OR-7,and NM-5)
Obama-D is going to win all of the battleground Midwestern states (OH-18,MI-16,WI-10,MN-10,and IA-6)=251ev
Romney-R has an electoral vote base of 191ev (including ND-3,TX-38,SD-3,GA-16,MT-3,SC-9,MO-10,IN-11,and AZ-11)
Romney-R is going to win the remaining Southern states (FL-29,NC-15,and VA-13)=248ev
The remaining battleground states are NH-4,PA-20,CO-9,and NV-6.
Obama-D wins PA-20 and NV-6=277ev
NH-4 and CO-9 is a Tossup.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-05 @ 18:16:04 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election
Democrats will win
ME(King-I, caucuses with the Democrats) 42D
HI(Hirino-D)43D
NM(Heinrich-D)44D
IN(Donnelly-D)45D
FL(Nelson-D)46D
MO(McCaskill-D)47D
PA(Casey-D)48D
CT(Murphy-D)49D
OH(Brown-D)50D
MA(Warren-D)51D
WI(Baldwin-D)52D
VA(Kaine-D)53D
Republicans win
TX(Cruz-R)42R
NE(Fischer-R)43R
AZ(Flake-R)44R
ND(Berg-R)45R
NV(Heller-R)46R
MT(Rehberg-R)47R



 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-05 @ 18:30:38 prediction Map
well we are slightly different but we end up in the same spot...I added WI and NV as turnovers...cancels eachother out anyway.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-05 @ 18:30:49 prediction Map
well we are slightly different but we end up in the same spot...I added WI and NV as turnovers...cancels eachother out anyway.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-05 @ 19:05:04 prediction Map
What makes you think that Berkley(NV) is more likely to win or win by a wider margin than Baldwin(WI).

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-05 @ 23:59:51 prediction Map
Obama-D wins by a margin greater than 20 percent in.
DC-3,VT-3,HI-4,NY-29,DE-3,RI-4,MD-10,and MA-11=67ev
Obama-D wins by a margin between 15 to 20 percent in.
IL-20,CA-55,and WA-12=87ev(154ev)
Obama-D wins by a margin between 10 to 15 percent in
NJ-14,ME-4,CT-7,and NM-5=30ev(184ev)
Obama-D wins by a margin between 5 to 10 percent in
OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20=63ev(247ev)
Obama-D narrowly wins OH-18,NV-6,IA-6,and NH-4=34ev(281ev)
CO-9,VA-13,and FL-29 are a statistical tie.
Romney-R wins the other states ie NC-15,AZ-11,IN-11,and MO-10=206ev.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-06 @ 07:01:39 prediction Map
Obama-D has an electoral vote base of 247ev(WI,MI,and PA)
Romney-R has an electoral vote base of 206ev(NC,and AZ)
Looking at the key Tossup battleground states
Obama-D wins OH-18=265ev
Romney-R wins VA-13 and FL-29=248ev.
This leaves NH,IA,NV,and CO.
Romney-R must win all 4 of those states to win.
Obama-D is likely to win NV-6=271ev
If Obama-D loses OH-18, then he must win all 4(NH,IA,NV,and CO) to get pass the 270.
Obama-D is going to hold onto WI,MI,and PA and Romney-R will win FL,NC,and VA.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-06 @ 07:35:50 prediction Map
US Senate
13 Democratic Incumbents up for re-election including Nelson(FL) and Casey(PA) are going to win re-election by a double digit margin. 43D
Democratic incumbents who are going to win by a high single digit margin. Brown(OH) and McCaskill(MO) 45D
Democratic Incumbent who is in a pure Tossup Race. Tester(MT)???
Democrats win open Democratic held seats in HI(Hirino-D) and NM(Heinrich-D) by a double digit margin. 47D
Democrats win CT(Murphy-D) by a high single digit margin. 48D
Democrats win WI(Baldwin-D) and VA(Kaine-D) by a narrow margin. 50D
Democrats lose open Democratic held seats in NE and ND which will be offset by Democrats winning open Republican held seats in ME and IN. 52D 39R
4 Republican incumbents running for re-election are definitely going to win re-election . 52D 43R
Republican incumbent who is in a pure Tossup Race
Heller(NV). Obama-D coattails, Reid Machine and Hispanic GOTV could help Berkley-D.
Republican incumbent who is going to lose.
Brown(MA). Big question is by how much. 6 to 9 percent margin Brown-R will lose to Warren-D by. 53D 43R
Republicans win open Republican held seat in TX(Cruz-R) by a landslide margin. 53D 44R
Republicans win AZ(Flake-R) by a narrow to high single digit margin. 53D 45R.
Democrats will be gaining seats in the US Senate.
Democrats lose NE,ND,and MT will be offset by winning ME,IN,and MA.
Democrats will hold onto CT,WI,and VA.
Democrats have a 50-50 chance of winning Republican held seats in NV and or AZ.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-07 @ 23:59:38 prediction Map
Obama-D won with more than 300ev(332 if he holds onto FL-29). The only 2 states he lost are IN-11 and NC-15.
Democrats won US Senate Races in
ME,HI,MO,FL,CT,PA,MA,NM,WI,IN,OH,VA,MT,and ND=55.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-08 @ 00:18:16 prediction Map
2014 US Senate.
Democrats hold onto AK(Begich-D defeats Miller-R),AR(Pryor-D will face the AR version Akin/Mourdock),CO(Udall-D),LA(Landrieu-D will face the LA version Akin/Mourdock),MN(Franken-D),NH(Shaheen-D),NC(Hagan-D),OR(Merkley-D)and will hold onto potential open seats in IA,MI,MT(Schweitzer-D),SD(Herseth-D),and WV(Tennent-D).
Democrats pick up ME(Collins-R retires) and KY(McConnell-R).

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-08 @ 09:14:08 prediction Map
Berkley(D-NV) was better off challenging Ensign(R-NV) in 2006 instead of running in 2012.
2006(Democratic Wave Year)- Non Controversial Conservative Republicans like DeWine(OH)and Talent(MO) lost re-election.
Berkley(NV) would have defeated Ensign in 2006.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-08 @ 22:41:13 prediction Map
2012 US President
Obama-D best state to Romney-R best state.
Obama-D over 15 point margin.
DC-3
HI-4
VT-3
RI-4
NY-29
MD-10
MA-11
CA-55
DE-3
CT-7
NJ-14
IL-20
ME-4
Obama-D by a 10-15 point margin.
WA-12
OR-7
Obama-D by a 5-10 point margin.
NM-5
MI-16
MN-10
WI-10
NV-6
NH-4
IA-6
PA-20
Obama-D by a 0-5 point margin.
CO-9
VA-13
OH-18
FL-29
Romney-R by a 0-5 point margin
NC-15
Romney-R by a 5-10 point margin
GA-16
MO-10
Romney-R by a 10-15 point margin.
IN-11
SC-9
AZ-11
MS-6(Obama-D did better in MS-6 than in 2008)
AK-3(Obama-D did better in AK-3 than in 2008)
MT-3
Romney-R by a 15 point margin or greater.
TX-38
LA-8(Obama-D did better in LA-8 than in 2008)
SD-3
ND-3
TN-11
KS-6
AL-9
NE-5
KY-8
AR-6
WV-5
ID-4
WY-3
UT-6

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-10 @ 11:54:15 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election
Democratic Victory to Republican Victory
VT(Sanders-I)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
MD(Cardin-D)
DE(Carper-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
CA(Feinstein-D)
ME(King-I/D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
FL(Nelson-D)
MO(McCaskill-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
PA(Casey-D)
MA(Warren-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
IN(Donnelly-D)
OH(Brown-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
MT(Tester-D)
ND(Heitkamp-D)
NV(Heller-R)
AZ(Flake-R)
TX(Cruz-R)
NE(Fischer-R)
MS(Wicker-R)
TN(Corker-R)
UT(Hatch-R)
WY(Barrasso-R)

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-10 @ 13:16:05 prediction Map
2014 US Senate Election
Democratic Held Seats
AK(Begich-D)
Miller-R would be the likely GOP nominee. Begich-D defeats Miller-R.(Democratic Retention)
AR(Pryor-D)
Pryor-D is one of the most popular Democratic politicians in AR. (Democratic Retention.)
CO(Udall-D)
Coffman-R giving up his US House Seat in 2014 to challenge Udall-D not only helps Udall-D win re-election but allows Democratic to pick up a US House Seat.(Democratic Retention.)
DE(Coons-D)
Safe Democratic.
IL(Durbin-D)
Durbin-D will defeat who ever the Republicans select but I would like to see Joe Walsh-R enter the race. If Durbin-D retires- Democratic retention. Democratic nominee will be either Lisa Madigan or Sheila Simon.(Democratic Retention)
IA(Harkin-D)
Harkin-D defeats either Steve King-R or Tom Latham-R. If Harkin-D retires. Tom Vilsack-D or Bruce Braley-D defeats either King-R or Latham-R. (Democratic Retention)
LA(Landrieu-D)
Landrieu-D vs Jindal-R race would be intersting to watch. Landrieu-D ends up winning. (Democratic Retention)
MA(Kerry-D)
If Kerry-D runs again. Safe Democratic.
If Kerry-D retires or is appoint Secretary State. Democratic Retention (Democratic Nominee will be Deval Patrick-D or Mike Capuano-D, Republican Nominee will be Scott Brown-R or Richard Tisei-R)
MI(Levin-D)
If Levin-D runs again- Democratic Retention.
If Levin-D retires. Democratic Retention.
Democratic Nominee will be either Granholm-D or Peters-D. Republican Nominee will be Candice Miller-R or John Engler-R.
MN(Franken-D)
Republicans will run Bachmann-R or Pawlenty-R. Democratic Retention.
MT(Baucus-D)
Baucus-D is running again. Democratic Retention. Denny Rehberg-R or Rick Hill-R would lose by a landslide.
NH(Shaheen-D)
Shaheen-D defeats either ex US Reps- Frank Guinta-R or Charlie Bass-R. Democratic Retention.
NJ(Lautenberg-D)
OPEN Seat. Democratic Nominee will be either Cory Booker-D or Frank Pallone-D)
NM(Udall-D)
Safe Democratic
NC(Hagan-D)
Republican Nominee will be either Renee Elmers or Patrick McHenry-R. Democratic Retention.
OR(Merkley-D)
Democratic Retention. Merkely-D defeats any GOP nominee including Greg Walden-R.
RI(Reed-D)
Reed-D runs again- Safe Democratic.
If Reed-D retires- Democratic Retention. Jim Langevin-D or Elizabeth Roberts-D are the front runner to replace Reed.
SD(Johnson-D)
If Johnson-D runs again. Democratic Retention. Johnson-D defeats either Rounds-R or Noem-R. If Johnson-D retires. Tossup Democratic Retention if Herseth Sandlin-D vs Noem-R but Tossup Republican Takeover if Herseth Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R.
VA(Warner-D)
Safe Democratic if Warner-D runs again.
If Warner-D becomes Governor in 2014. Democratic Retention- Democratic Nominee will either be Tom Perriello-D or Brian Moran-D
WV(Rockefeller-D)
If Rockefeller-D runs again. Democratic Retention.
IF Rockefeller-D retires. Republican Takeover. Shelly Moore Capito-R vs either Carte Goodwin-D or Rick Thompson-D
DSCC needs to make sure that Rockefeller(WV) and Johnson(SD) seek re-election in 2014.



 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-10 @ 13:20:39 prediction Map
2014 US Senate Election
Republican Held US Seats
Republican incumbents who are vulnerable are ME(OPEN),GA(Chambliss-R)and KY(McConnell-R).

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-10 @ 14:21:55 prediction Map
2012 US House Election
AZ(Democrats pick up AZ-1(Kirkpatrick-D) and AZ-9(Sinema-D),could lose AZ-2(Barber-D),Republicans lose AZ-6(Quayle-R). +1D/-1R(AZ-2 is undecided).
AR(Republicans pick up AR-4(Cotton-R).
CA(Democrats pick up CA-7(Bera-D),CA-26(Brownley-D),CA-36(Ruiz-D),and CA-52(Peters-D). +4D/-4R
FL(Democratic pick up FL-9(Grayson-D),FL-18(Murphy-D),FL-22(Frankel-D),and FL-26(Garcia-D) +8D/-6R
GA(Republicans pick up the new GA-9). +8D/-5R
IL(Democrats pick up IL-8(Duckworth-D),IL-10(Schneider-D),IL-11(Foster-D),and IL-17(Bustos-R). +12D/-10R
IN(Republicans pick up IN-2(Walorski-R).+11D/-9R
IA(Democrats lose IA-3(Boswell-D). +10D/-9R
KY(Republicans pick up KY-6(Barr-R). +9D/-8R
LA(Republicans lose LA-3(Landry-R) +9D/-9R
MD(Democrats pick up MD-6(Delaney-D) +10D/-10R
MA(Democrats lose MA-1(Olver-D) +9D/-10R
MI(Democrats lose MI-14(Clarke-D) +8D/-10R
MN(Democrats pick up MN-8(Nolan-D) +9D/-11R
MO(Democrats lose MO-1(Carnahan-D) +8D/-11R
NV(Democrats pick up NV-4(Horsford-D) +9D/-11R
NH(Democrats pick up NH-1(Porter-D) and NH-2(Kuster-D) +11D/-13R
NJ(Democrats lose NJ-9(Rothman-D) +10D/-13R
NY(Democrats pickup NY-18(Maloney-D) and NY-24(Maffei-D) lose NY-22(Hinchey-D) and NY-27(Hochul-D). Republicans lose NY-5(Turner-R) +10D/-15R
NC(Republicans pick up NC-8(Hudson-R),NC-11(Meadows-R),and NC-13(Holdin-R). +7D/-12R
OH(Democrats pick up OH-3(Beatty-D) but lose OH-9(Kucinich-D)and OH-16(Sutton-D). Republicans lose OH-10(Austria-R). +6D/-13R
OK-2(Republicans pick up OK-3(Mullin-R)+5D/-12R
PA-12(Republicans pick up PA-12(Rothfus-R)+3D/-11R
SC-7(Republicans pick up SC-7(Rice-R)+3D/-10R
TX(Democrats pick up TX-23(Gallegos-D),TX-33(Veasey-D),and TX-34(Vela-D). Republicans pick up TX-25(Willams-R) and TX-36(Stockman-R). +6D/-9R
UT(Republicans pick up UT-2(Stewart-R)+6D/-8R
WA(Democrats pick up WA-10(Heck-D)+7D/-8R
+7D/-7R assuming Barber(AZ-2) loses.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-10 @ 14:44:46 prediction Map
2014 US House Election.
Democrats need a net gain of 18 seats in the US House to get in the majority.
Democrats Targets are.
1)AZ-2(McSally-R)
2)CA-10(Denham-R)
3)CA-31(Miller-R)
4)CO-6(Coffman-R)
5)FL-2(Southerland-R)
6)FL-10(Webster-R)
7)IL-13(Davis-R)
8)IN-2(Walorski-R)
9)MI-1(Benishek-R)
10)MI-11(Bentivello-R)
11)MN-6(Bachmann-R)
12)NE-3(Terry-R)
13)NY-11(Grimm-R)
14)NY-19(Gibson-R)
15)NY-23(Reed-R)
16)OH-16(Rennacci-R)Bocceri-D
17)PA-12(Rothfus-R)Altmire-D
18)VA-2(Rigell-R)

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-12 @ 18:43:40 prediction Map
2016 could be the year we send two more gays to the US Senate.
AZ-Sinema-D could run to replace McCain-R who is likely to retire.
WI-Pocan-D could run against Johnson-R.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-14 @ 14:26:40 prediction Map
Nancy Pelosi has decided to remain as House Democratic Leader.
Had Tom Foley(D-WA) not lose re-election to his US House Seat in 1994 GOP wave- would he still remain as House Democratic Leader or Gephardt(D-MO) be in that position.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-15 @ 02:58:32 prediction Map
Kerry(D-MA) being selected to the State or Defense Department means Jan 2013, MA gets 2 new US Senators. Warren(D-MA) who will serve until her term expires in 1/2019 and a interm Democratic appointee who serves until the upcoming special election which will take place at the latest 11/2013. (worse case scenario is Brown-R narrowly defeats the Democratic Nominee) The winner of the 2013 Special Election will have to face the voters again in 2014 when Kerry's senate term expires. Brown-R loses in 11/2014 to Deval Patrick-D.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-17 @ 15:33:13 prediction Map
US Senate from 2004 to 2012
During the 2004 US Senate Election. Republicans won every US Senate Election in the South except AR(Lincoln-D managed to win re-election). FL,GA,LA,NC,and SC were open seats due to the retirements of Graham(FL),Miller(GA),Breaux(LA),Edwards(NC)and Hollings(SC). plus unseated Daschle(SD) with Thune-R. They lost IL(OPEN-Fitzgerald-R) to Obama-D and CO(OPEN-Campbell-R) to Salazar-D.
Republicans had a net gain of 4 seats in 2004.(45D 55R)
In 2006(Democratic Wave)
Republicans lost PA(Santorum-R vs Casey-D) and OH(Dewine-R vs Brown-D) by a double digit margin. Casey(PA) and Brown(OH) would have won in a neutral environment. Republicans also lost RI(Chaffee-R vs Whitehouse-D),MO(Talent-R vs McCaskill-D),MT(Burns-R vs Tester-D),and VA(Allen-R vs Webb-D). Republicans lost 6 seats in 2006.(51D 49R)
2008. Republicans lost open seats in VA(Warner-D vs Gilmore-R),NM(Udall-D vs Pearce-R),CO(Udall-D vs Schaffer-R),and Republican incumbents in NH(Sununu-R vs Shaheen-D),NC(Dole-R vs Hagan-D),OR(Smith-R vs Merkley-D),AK(Stevens-R vs Begich-D),and MN(Coleman-R vs Franken-D)
Republicans lost 8 seats in 2008(59D 41R)
2009/2010- Specter(PA)switching parties and Brown(R-MA) replacing Kennedy(D-MA).
2010 US Senate Election.
Republican pickup opportunities were in
ND(OPEN-Dorgan-D)-Republican nominee was current Governor John Hoeven-R. Democratic Nominee was a unknown State Senator- Tracy Potter. Hoeven-R won by a landslide.
AR(Lincoln-D)-unpopular Democratic incumbent in increasingly red state. Republican nominee John Boozman-R popular US Congressman from NW AR. Boozman-R won by a landslide margin.
IN(OPEN-Bayh-D)Republican nominee was ex US Senator Dan Coats-R. Democratic nominee was US Rep Brad Ellsworth-D. Coats-R won in the GOP wave.
DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)-Biden's old Seat. Republican nominee was suppose to be ex Governor and current US House Member Mike Castle-R. Democrats nominated Chris Coons-D a local county executive. Castle-R would have won the 2010 DE US Senate Race against Coons-D. However in the Republican Primary- Rightwing Conservative Christine O'Donnell managed to defeat Castle-R in the GOP primary allowing Coons-D to win in the General.
IL(OPEN-Burris-D)-Obama-D's open seat. Republicans were able to nominate their strongest candidate-US Rep Mark Kirk-R. Democrats were stuck with the mediocre candidate- State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis-D. Factor in the Blago controversy. Kirk-R was able to win by a narrow margin.
PA(OPEN-Specter-D)-Both sides nominated top tier candidates Sestak-D vs Toomey-R. GOP wave allowed Toomey-R to narrowly win.
WI(Feingold-D)-Wealthy Conservative Businessman Johnson-R was able to defeat Johnson-R in the GOP wave.
Democrats were able to hang onto CO(Bennet-D vs Buck-R) and NV(Reid-D vs Angle-R). Both CO and NV would have remained in the Democratic collumn had Republicans nominated Norton(CO) and Sue Lowden(NV).
Republicans had a net gain of 6 seats in 2010. IF Republicans won DE,CO,and NV. Republicans would have a 50 seats.
2012. Republicans lost ME(due to Snowe-R retirement and King-I candidacy/King-I was going to caucus with the Senate Democrats once he got elected), MA(Brown-R was going to have a tough time winning in a Presidential Election especially with a much stronger challenger in Elizabeth Warren-D), and IN(defeat of Lugar-R in the GOP primary plus the obscene comments by Mourdock-R). Republicans could have held onto the IN seat had they renominated Lugar-R.
Republicans picked up NE(OPEN seat in Red State). They were suppose to pick up ND,MT,MO,and WI. But Democrats won all 4 of those seats. In ND(the only strong GOP nominee besides Berg-R was ex Governor Ed Schafer-R), In MT(the only strong GOP nominee besides Rehberg-R was ex Governor Marc Racicot-R). In MO(Steelman-R would have done better than Akin-R but still would have lost). in WI(How would Neumann-R or Hovde-R would have performed against Baldwin-D).
The only seat Republicans managed to lose on their own is IN.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 08:12:20 prediction Map
2012 US Presidential Election
States Obama-D carried by a 15 percent margin or greater
DC-3
HI-4
VT-3
RI-4
NY-29
MD-10
MA-11
CA-55
DE-3
CT-7
NJ-14
IL-20
ME-4
13 States(167ev)
States Romney-R won by a 15 percent margin or greater.
UT-6
WY-3
OK-7
ID-4
WV-5
AR-6
KY-8
NE-5
KS-6
AL-9
TN-11
ND-3
SD-3
LA-8
TX-38
15 States (122ev)
States Obama-D won by at least a 7.5 percent margin
WA-12
OR-7
NM-5
MI-16
MN-10
5 states(50ev)217ev
States Romney-R won by at least a 7.5 percent margin.
AK-3
MT-3
MS-6
IN-11
SC-9
MO-10
AZ-11
GA-16
8 states(69ev)191ev
Battleground States Obama-D won by at least a 5 percent margin.
WI-10
NV-6
IA-6
NH-4
CO-9
PA-20
6 states(55ev)272ev
Battleground state which Obama-D performed above his national numbers
VA-13(285ev)
OH-18 is a Tossup state that leans Democratic
FL-29 is a Statistical Tie.
NC-15 is a Tossup Republican
Democrats need to win PA-20 (CO-9,NH-4,IA-6,NV-6,and WI-10 -Dem wins by a slight margin)
Republicans need to win NC-15,FL-29,OH-18,VA-13 and PA-20 to win in 2016.
The ideal ticket for the Democrats in 2016 just in case Hillary says no is Warner/Klobuchar
Democrats end up solidifying VA-13,WI-10,and IA-6
Democrats will win WA-12,OR-7,NM-5,MI-16,and MN-10. Democrats will easily recieve 246ev
Democrats just need to win PA-20 and NH-4 or PA-20 and NV-6
Republicans could nominate a Christie/Martinez ticket in 2016.
Republican win NC-15,FL-29,OH-18,and CO-9(262ev)
NH-4 and NV-6 will be Tossup States that Republicans must win if they lose VA-13.

Last Edit: 2012-11-29 @ 08:38:32

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-09 @ 10:11:25 prediction Map
2016 US Presidential Election
The Democratic Nominee for POTUS is Hillary Clinton, Her V.P. running mate is a 1/2 Term governor of HI-4, that will say, I can see Japan from my house.
The Republican nominee will be Ted Cruz, who defeats Jeb Bush in the Primary. He selects McConnell as his VP runningmate.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2013-05-23 @ 12:40:59 prediction Map
I'd prefer Klobuchar/Warner to the reverse. If the Dems nominate a woman, they win 2016 automatically. There are no qualified women whom the Repubs will nominate for president to stop this from happening. And if Hillary gives her support, then it's an auto-blowout win, too.
Seems good to me that I got every state right. This is a motivator to do better next time, though. I missed my Senate prediction by one and my House prediction by 2 seats and got the overall pct off by 1pt. It'll be 58-41 Dems in 2016, I can tell you right now, if they do nominate a woman.
-Jeff

Last Edit: 2013-05-23 @ 12:41:57


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie



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