PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - colin (R-ON) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:28

Prediction Map
colin MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
colin MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages

No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 15

I wasn't going to make a new prediction, but I thought there was some new polling that warranted a small adjustment. I don't think the race has really changed all the much. It is very interesting that the proverbial kitchen sink it being thrown at Romney right now and the polls are still slightly moving in his direction relative to a few weeks ago. I think the most interesting and noticable development is that the west is starting to loosen up a bit. Polling coming out of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada is now pretty tight. I am actually a bit surprised by this. I had writted NM off this election and didn't really think Nevada and Colorado would land in the Republican column. I'm still not entirely convinced and the polls may move away from Romney out west again. What is interesting is that we are now looking at 11 toss up states. The playing field is getting bigger and bigger which is not good news for the President. He has more and more to defend and Romney's options are increasing each day. Does that mean Romney will win? Not necessarily. I just think that at this point anyone writing Romney off, despite the onslaught of attacks the past couple of weeks, should take a second look.

Version: 12

Just a quick update. Not much has actually changed at this point. A momentum shift towards Romney, but still a tight race. It looks like it is all coming down to Ohio right now.

Version: 6

While I have hesitated until this point to make an Obama vs. Romney map, I will capitulate for the time being. I still don't think that Romney has the nomination sewn up, and I still have my doubts as to his electability in a general election. This is where I think things stand right now, while much could change, if Romney ends up being the nominee.

Version: 1

This is where I believe things stand at this point. A year and a half away from the election, it means very little.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 264
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 9 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 4 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 8/12 19/24 79.2% pie 2 1 1T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 18 1 60T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 12 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 228 138T153
P 2012 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 28 1 367T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 11 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 6/11 15/22 68.2% pie 3 48 131T228
P 2010 Senate 31/37 22/37 53/74 71.6% pie 42 0 167T456
P 2010 Governor 31/37 24/37 55/74 74.3% pie 23 0 118T312
P 2008 President 49/56 44/56 93/112 83.0% pie 16 2 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 3 281T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 2 3 212T264
P 2006 U.S. Senate 25/33 13/33 38/66 57.6% pie 1 1 402T465
P 2006 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 1 1 232T312
P 2004 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 512/575 342/575 854/1150 74.3% pie

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