Just coming back here, because the weather has improved from earlier forecast in and throughout the state of North Carolina and there is some talk out there that if Virginia and Florida go back for Obama/Biden -- which seems increasingly likely because of turnout both today and in early voting (in both those states) it bodes well for Obama in North Carolina.

I know we already have the results in Dixxville Notch, New Hampshire that showed the two nominees tied, but I would have to say that would NOT be what Romney needs to continue this day to win. Plus Romney having a campaign rally in Ohio today is just goofy since it takes away from what that campaign really needs to focus on to win and that's people voting.

Am very proud either way (but of course I have a bias) that there is a lot of people voting today and in early and absentee voting.

Increasingly looks like I'm going to be wrong regarding my current home state of Georgia flipping to Obama/Biden, but I still think Obama does quite respectively here to make it a 49% - 51% result against Romney. Georgia will start to become more competitive as the share of white voters is down below 60% and might quite possibly go Democrat in the Presidential election as early as 2016. I think the rain in Georgia is going to dampen the voter turnout for Democrats here for election day voting. The rest of this is based, again, on the nytimes.com FiveThirtyEight blog which does have Florida (as well as the rest up above) going to Obama and I think he will take it and I feel his share along the I-4 corridor from St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach will be higher than the pundits and Romney camp will have wanted (as well as in southeast Florida coast.) Still feel the Democrats will retake the U.S. House but have it down slightly to a 49 seat pickup for the Democrats for a new lineup come January 2013 of 242 D 193 R as compared to this last two years of 242 R 193 D. Nancy Pelosi will be back in as Speaker of the House.

A few changes since Sunday:

Georgia: I have a feeling Jack Kingston, R. stays in, while John Barrow, D. loses to Lee Anderson, R. But the Democrats make a surprising gain due to early and absentee voting in Gwinnett County of defeating Rich Woodall, R. in the 7th and putting Steve Reilly, D.

Kentucky: Thomas Massie, R. replaces the resigned Geoff Davis, R. in the 4th.

Nebraska: Lee Terry, R. stays in as John Ewing, D. fails to become the first African-American elected from the Corn Husker state.

North Carolina: Republican Patrick McHenry survives stiff challenge, but Democrats still pick up the seat of retiring Sue Myrick, R. in the 9th and also take out incumbent Virginia Foxx in the 5th District with Elizabeth Motsinger, D. and retain Heath Shuler's 11th. But the Republicans pick up retiring Brad Miller, D.'s 13th.

North Dakota: Republicans keep Berg's seat as I'm going to be moving this U.S. Senate seat to have Berg elected to Kent Conrad, D.'s seat over Heitkamp, D. unfortunately in my opinion.

So, it will still be seen as the Year of the Woman II altogether only at 84 D 26 R in the U.S. House or 110 women altogether when they reconvene in January 2013. The amount of Freshmen is cut a bit from my earlier prediction from 113 to 111 with the lineup of Freshmen for January 2013 being 85 D 26 R or 111 Freshmen in the U.S. House.

Needed to make some readjustments after going ahead and checking on the New York Times.com website of Election Foecasts -- FiveThirty Eight Blog which the most accurate predictions the Sunday before the 2008 election day.

Still feel very confident about how this election is going for Obama/Biden and the Democrats -- yes in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate results as well for November 6th, including but not limited to the long lines of early voting in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and even in my current home state of Georgia.

I'm really feeling that despite some things written on that blog that Obama loses from 2008 only Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and Indiana, but based not only on that blog, but also what my own eyes are seeing and ears are hearing that Obama picks up Georgia and keeps everything else he won in 2008. Democrats also here in Georgia win the one Metro-Atlanta Public Service Commission race (voted on statewide) where Republican incumbent Chuck Eaton loses to the Democratic nominee Stephen Oppenheimer.

This is definitely my FINAL map going into November 6th.

I feel that the Romney camp's internals are showing a not very good showing for them (via ABC's This Week in terms of comments that were panned by GOP pundit Matthew Dowd regarding what Ed Gillespie said.) I feel that the Obama/Biden campaign was helped by it's response to the very late-October surprise of Hurricane Sandy and the response of FEMA has shown just out of touch Romney/Ryan is in regards to the need of a strong Federal Government and also the need for agencies such as FEMA. I will take within the last two weeks the endorsements of General and former Secretary of State Colin Powell and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg which will help Obama among independents and Republicans (especially many women) to be much more strong for Obama then Meat Loaf's endorsement of Romney/Ryan. I feel that the strong early voting has gone much more on the side of Obama and the Democrats and I feel that we will see more upsets for the GOP -- even here in Georgia -- then is expected as of now. I also feel it isn't helping Romney that Libertarian (and former Republican) Gary Johnson is running in 48 states (I would say that Johnson will take more votes from Romney then Green Party candidate Jill Stein will take from Obama) and that in many of the battleground states, it hurts that Romney, especially in Virginia former Republican (and earlier Democratic) Congressman Virgil Goode is on the ballot as the Constitution party candidate. I'm going to be moving my U.S. Senate and Governor elections map much more for the Democrats and I'm predicting the Democrats retake control of the U.S. House by gaining 52 seats to go up to 245 Democrats and 190 Republicans from the current 242 Republicans 193 Democrats.

Some highlights to watch for in that U.S. House move are:

Arizona: Democrats take control of the delegation 6D 3R
California: Democrats swamp the Republicans, 39D 14R Including the loss of Dan Lungren, Gary Gene Miller and Brian Bilbray and a close election for Buck McKeon and Mary Bono-Mack
Colorado: Republicans lose Mike Coffman and Scott Tipton
Connecticut: Democrats keep all 5 their seats. Elizabeth Esty keeps the seat of winning Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Chris Murphy's 5th seat.
Florida: Democrats take control of the delegation 14D 13R With the loss for Republicans of Steve Southerland, John Mica, Dan Webster, Bill Young and David Rivera. Republicans barely hold on to Allen West (who becomes the new thorn in the side for the Democrats as Republicans also lose Minnesota's Michele Bachmann) and Vern Buchanan.
Georgia: Democrats narrow the gap with the Republicans holding on to a 8R 6D lead. Republicans falling off will be Rich Woodall and John Kingston. Democrats come close to knocking off Tom Price. Democrat Hank Johnson has a closer than expected election, though. Democrat John Barrow also wins closely but wins nonetheless.
Illinois: Democrats go back up to a 13D 5R majority as the Republicans lose Peter Roskam, Joe Walsh, Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger and Bob Schilling.
Indiana: Democrats inch up to narrow the GOP majority, 6R 3D as Democrats oust Todd Rokita and Todd Young. U.S. Senate victor Joe Donnelly's open seat though will fall to Republicans and two time GOP nominee Jackie Walorski.
Iowa: As Arkansas becomes another state without a Democrat in it's delegation -- Iowa becomes another state without a Republican in it's delegation as Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell defeats Republican Incumbent Tom Latham and former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, Democrat defeats Republican incumbent Steve King.
Maryland: Democrats end up gaining all but one seat in the U.S. House delegation to make it 7D 1R as Democrat John Delaney defeats Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett.
Michigan: Democrats regain control of the U.S. House delegation 8D 6R as Republican incumbents Justin Amash and Mike Rogers are ousted. In winning the seat of forced to resign Republican incumbent Thad McCotter, Syed Taj becomes the first of three new Congressional members from India elected the U.S. House along with Democrats Ami Bera in California and Upendra Chivukula in New Jersey.
Minnesota: The Democratic Farmer-Laborer have their biggest one day success as they take total control of the 8 member delegation as Republican incumbents John Kline, Erik Paulsen and Chip Cravaack join Michele Bachmann in going down in defeat.
Missouri: Democrats narrow the gap by moving the delegation to 5R 3D as Democrat Teresa Hensley oust Republican incumbent Vicky Hartzler. More moderate GOP nominee Ann Wagner holds the seat, for the Republicans, of losing Republican U.S. Senate nominee Todd Akin.
Montana: Democrats take the sole U.S. House seat as Democrat Kim Gillan wins the seat of winning Republican U.S. Senate nominee Denny Rehberg,
Nevada: Democrats take the new U.S. House seat with the first African-American in that delegation, Steve Horsford wins the new 4th. Dina Titus keeps new U.S. Senator Shelley Berkley's 1st in the Democratic column.
New Hampshire: Democrats take both U.S. House seats back as former Congress member Carol Shea-Porter ousts Republican incumbent Frank Guinta in a revenge match from 2010 and Ann McLane Kuster defeats Republican incumbent Charlie Bass. nNew Jersey: The Parties exchange two seats as the delegation splits evenly, 6D 6R. Democrat Frank Pallone is ousted by two-time Republican nominee Anna Little (who will join Florida's Allen West as GOP flame thrower in the new Democratic controlled U.S. House) as the 6th seat is the Congressional district election is the most affected by the after math of Hurricane Sandy. But in the nearby 7th Democratic nominee Upendra Chivukula defeats Republican incumbent Leonard Lance.
New Mexico: Another state where Democrats get all of the delegation for the first time as Democratic nominee Evelyn Madrid Erhard defeats Republican incumbent Steve Pearce to become one of two new Latinas elected to the U.S. House from New Mexico. The other Latina from New Mexico will be Michelle Lujan Grisham who keeps the seat of successful Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Martin Heinrich.
New York: Democrats move up in the U.S. delegation, 23D 4R, as Republicans Peter King, Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna and Tom Reed are all defeated for re-election. The only bright spot for the Republicans will be in keeping the two women Freshman (now, sophomores) in the delegation, Nan Hayworth and Ann Buerkle with Republican incumbent Michael Grimm surviving a close call and Republican nominee Maggie Brooks defeating long time Democratic incumbent Louise Slaughter. Democrats successfully defend two incumbents who were thought vulnerable, both Carolyn McCarthy and Kathy Hochul. In defeating aforementioned Republican incumbent Tom Reed, Democrat Nate Shinagawa becomes the first Congressman with Japanese ancestry elected to the U.S. House outside of California and Hawaii. And in keeping the seat of retiring Democratic incumbent, Democratic, Gary Ackerman, Grace Meng becomes the first Congressional member outside of California with Chinese ancestry.
North Carolina: Democrats do much better than what was expected a few months ago as the U.S. House delegation in the Tar Heel state goes up to a 10D 3R majority as not only does Democratic nominee Charles Malone keep the U.S. House seat of retiring Brad Miller and Democratic nominee Hayden Rogers keep the U.S. House seat of retiring Heath Shuler but the Democrats oust Republican incumbents Virginia Foxx and Patrick McHenry. Ohio: Democrats run the field again as Democrats move up to 11D 5R majority. Democrats ousts Republican incumbents Bob Gibbs, Mike Turner, Pat Tiberi, Bob Latta and Steve Stivers. Democrats also take the new seat with Democratic nominee Joyce Beatty and take the open seat because of retirement of Republican incumbent Steve LaTourette with Democratic nominee Dale Blanchard.
Pennsylvania: An even split of 9D 9R, of the Congressional delegation, is the result as Republicans Jim Gerlach, Mike Fitzpatrick and Bill Shuster are ousted. rnrnSouth Carolina: Republicans keep all their seats, but there is a new delegation line-up of 5R 2D as Gloria Bromell Tinubu is elected the new Democratic U.S. House member of the new 7th District.
Texas: Republicans keep and expand on their majority here, but with some interesting results making 26R 10D Congressional delegation (Texas is the new Republican power house state in the Congress. Newly elected members are Republicans Randy Weber, Barbara Carrasco, Jessica Peunte Bradshaw, Susan Narvaiz and Democrats Joaquin Castro, Elaine Henderson, Rose Meza Harrison and Marc Veasey. Former Republican Congress member Steve Stockman is returned in the newly created 36th District joining returning members Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican Matt Salmon in Arizona, Democrat Alan Grayson in Florida, Democratic Farmer-Laborer Rick Nolan in Minnesota, Dina Titus in Nevada and Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire. is also returned. Democratic nominee Rose Meza Henderson makes Republican incumbent Blake Farenthold the only ousted Republican incumbent in Texas and Republican nominee Susan Lea Clifford Narvaiz ousts Democratic incumbent Lloyd Doggett.
Utah: The Congressional Delegation goes entirely Republican in this most Republican state in the nation that gives Mitt Romney one of his only outstanding wins. The delegation here goes to 4R as Republican nominee Chris Stewart joins Republican Mia Love (who ousts Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson) as two Freshman in the delegation.
Virginia: Democrats fight to go to a slightly improved 6R 5D minority as Republican incumbents Randy Forbes and Frank Wolf are ousted.
Washington: Democrats take an overwhelming majority of the Congressional delegation as they go up to an 8D 2R majority. Two Republican incumbents Doc Hastings and Dave Reichert are ousted as two Republican women, Jaime Herrera Beutler and Cathy Rodgers remain as the two sole Republican Congressional members. And in the new 10th district Democratic nominee Denny Heck takes that seat.
There is also an overwhelming sense of a new Year of the Woman as women improve their standing in the U.S. House above 25% of the seats at 26.44% of the seats with 89 Democrats and 26 Republicans or 115 women altogether and of course Nancy Pelosi getting back in as Speaker of the U.S. House.
Minorities, altogether (women, African-Americans, Latinos and other races) also make tremendous gains as they go up to 139 Democrats and 33 Republicans or 172 seats or 39.54% of the seats.

Readjusting the map for things heard and seen, in terms of polls, and otherwise in the news. And also just the over all feeling I get post all the debates. I'm still convinced that President Obama wins and takes Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada in his win, but perhaps not as convincingly as he did in 2008. I still don't see how Governor Romney has become so popular, and I'd almost bet many conservatives were angry at him after last night's third and final debate. Am also still convinced that Obama does much better among women then Romney does among men. (And that would mean the older women down in Florida.) The only three states that I would feel Obama surrenders to Romney are New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia (and I only have one of those, North Carolina, going that way in my confidence map.) I'll have to see how much I change this map over the rest of this week and next week as news develops.

This map, my first of the 2012 is based upon polls and some gut reaction. And also what is going on with the U.S. Senate races, that are providing more than a few surprises. (I probably should have Arizona, Missouri, Montana and Nevada being tossup category due to the U.S. Senate races in those four states looking better for the Democrats, but I need to be able to see some evidence of that being possible, in the polls, that Obama could win those states and add all of them to his column. Indiana though seems to be the state that Obama loses from 08, despite improvements for him, and I'm afraid that a tea party Republican nominee will win the U.S. Senate races, most unfortunately. And Connecticut U.S. Senate race would have to be the major surprise in reverse for the Democrats. I just have to see in the polls how that U.S. Senate race develops and if Obama keeps a lead there -- it might be interesting to see if we might have a reversal of the 1988 U.S. Presidential results and U.S. Senate results there, in 2012, and involving the seat that then Democratic state Attorney General Joseph Lieberman won by defeating then Republican U.S. Senator Lowell P. Weicker and in a year when the GOP Presidential ticket did so, well, in Connecticut?)

I'm still convinced that President Obama will be re-elected with relative ease for an incumbent. I know the economy is still not strong for an incumbent, and Governor Romney had a few good weeks in October after a horrible September after the GOP convention -- but the Vice-Presidential debate and the 2nd Presidential debate raised some doubts, again, with Romney especially in terms of women (especially his "Binders of women" remark and coming across as rather condescending) and the women voters are still in the majority in this country and most don't take too kindly to that kind of condescending attitude -- especially one that uses such an old-fashioned time of allusion (who has binders anymore?).

I still say that there is still a possibility of some room to grow for Obama and take more and keep more of what he won in 2008 -- but much will depend on both on the third debate, outside of the country events (who would have thought going into the fall that foreign affairs would become so much of a possible deciding factor?) and also how the job #'s are, for October, the weekend before the election -- I won't post a final map until sometime that weekend.