I don't have any surprises here compared to the conventional wisdom. I'm pretty confident in how most of the toss-ups will eventually vote. However, Florida and North Carolina give me the most trouble. I think they'll be the closest and both could go either way. It'll all come down to the ground game and how strong the organizations are, which could very well end up giving President Obama a higher electoral count (the realistic max being 347-348). At the least, I see the President matching President Bush's popular vote margin from 2004, probably right around a 3% lead or so.

The race seems to be breaking in one direction at the moment and there are few events able to stifle the current momentum. Right now, I'd say it looks as if President Obama may actually be able to exceed his 2008 performance nationwide. He is holding steady in the strongly Democratic states, while Mitt Romney is under-performing John McCain in both the the swing states and the strongly Republican states. I do not think it is out of the question that the President not only breaks his electoral count in 2008, but his popular vote margin as well. Unless there is a true October surprise or a huge debate debacle, I think Mitt Romney will go down in a decisive defeat. He may not only cause Senate Democrats to net gain seats, but may actually cause the Republican House Majority to fall as well (despite conventional wisdom).

At the moment, I think the safe states are really thoroughly decided right now. I also do not foresee any surprises with the current lean states, although I would not be surprised to see the President over-perform compared to four years ago. Indiana may very well come back to the Obama fold, while Arizona may turn as well if things go right. If the President has an exceptionally strong night, he may pick up states in the South as well as one or both of the Dakotas. As for the swing states, I see President Obama dominating, although not sweeping unless he wins in a landslide (in which he may take lean Republican states as well). Despite current polling which has Romney barely ahead in North Carolina, I think President Obama has an overwhelming ground-game which can counteract any small Romney lead. The only other surprise is that I have Ohio leaning in Obama's favor. I believe Obama will win the state by an even larger margin than four years ago. If I had to wager a guess, I'd say he is picking up significant vote margins in the Northeast and Southeast, while perhaps taking a modest decline in the Northwest (which may be most similar to Indiana) and the Columbus suburbs. Across the remainder of the Rust Belt, I expect President Obama to do considerably better compared to four years ago.

I will not say that President Obama 2012 is a stronger candidate compared with Senator Obama 2008, but I am ready to say right now that Mitt Romney 2012 is a much weaker candidate than John McCain 2008. Indeed, if things get even more sour for Mitt Romney, he is potentially facing the largest defeat since 1988 or even 1984. The only thing Mitt Romney has had going for him is money, and that may not even be true anymore. He will not and cannot overrun his competition like in the primary. While there are several weeks until the election, I certainly cannot discount the possibility of a landslide.

(I will try to updates this at least a couple times before Election Day.)