Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2011-10-04 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	311
Rep	227
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	257
Rep	198
Ind	0
Tos	83

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+2	0	+21	-4	-1	-69	25	2	290	-48
Rep	+4	+1	+69	-2	0	-21	20	2	158	+48
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
95	47	39	5	4

Analysis

Based on the belief of Obama vs. Romney

All Southern Swing States-Obama barely took FL and NC. VA has NOT had a long streak of going to Dems in the past 25+ years. I think it's very unlikely Obama will hold ground in the south

Indiana-Another state Obama barely took and saw a MAJOR defeat in the 2010 Sen. race from the Dems

All Southwestern Swing States and Missouri-Many may question me here, but the fact Romney lost AZ, MO and NM to McCain in the 2008 primaries and CO and NV went to Obama in the 2008 general...I think they will have to be watched closely until at least Summer 2012...especially AZ and MO

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	1	399	314	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	24/52	4/52	28/104	26.9%	1	-	164	T	231
2010 Senate	27/37	14/37	41/74	55.4%	1	291	375	T	456
2008 President	49/56	28/56	77/112	68.8%	5	155	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	29/33	15/33	44/66	66.7%	2	155	281	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	303	152	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	24/52	6/52	30/104	28.8%	2	-	150	T	271
Aggregate Predictions	215/297	116/297	331/594	55.7%

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